Lets not forget the old classic warm water port motive.
I've been limiting my consumption of mainstream media on this and focusing on as close to primary sources as I can get - twitter pictures and videos mostly, which is pretty eye opening as long as you are smart enough to sort out the fakes (like the air-air Mig29 launching rockets that appear out of nowhere on a house with surprisingly good resolution for no particular reason), video game footage (of a couple AA shootdowns of non-COMblock planes), and stuff from 2014.
The one thing that is clear is that while I really want the Ukraine to be able to resist the Russian Army, we all know they are simply out gunned, and they are just trying to stay alive long enough for somebody or something to intervene. With that being said, they are putting up a good fight. Lots of pictures of obviously Russian Armor destroyed, RU attack helicopters downed, russian casualties, ect.
We talk a lot about NATO not being involved, and the shit show that would be, but if you think about it, look at how well the Ukrainians have resisted so far, and then scale that up to actual NATO numbers. Barring the involvement of Nukes, I think the Russians would end up backing down, or else they'd end up with a lot of destroyed equipment, very quickly.
I also saw that Estonia said they will be supplying Javalins, Medical equipment, and MREs to Ukraine.
I think the international condemnation and willingness to sanction is more powerful than the sanctions themselves - He knew those would happen, and planned as such.
Also, I highly, highly, highly doubt the ghost of Kyiv thing. It sounds like the plot line to the Ace-Combat Series of games. But boy wouldn't it be cool if I was wrong.
My GF doesn't want to hear about Russia at all, so I'm getting all of my geopolitical thoughts out here.