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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

45acp said:
The CA's behind me? No clue. They've been here 2 years and refuse to speak. They cover their eyes with their hands anytime someone drives passed their house. :laughing:
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They just won't look at you, or they actually cover their eyes? :confused:
 
arse_sidewards said:
I assure you a huge fraction of the people in the software industry who do that talk about it. It's a pretty widely known strategy on the usual internet venues where people discuss those sorts of things.

I know voting doesn't matter but I would love to see the day that the feds fuck with tax policy in a way that absolutely crushes that behavior.
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You don’t hear about around here because most justify living here because of the “low cost of living”. Which is such a stupid answer if your income is like most and market adjusted.
 
I have a hard time understanding how anyone in my lifetime will ever recover from this. Four years ago I made good money and was looking at houses. I didn't buy, and no matter how much I save I cant get ahead (single salary household). Even looking at new jobs, most pay less than I currently make, and I cant see finding one given my credentials that pays me the 50% more that I need to "get ahead".
 
Burns said:
I have a hard time understanding how anyone in my lifetime will ever recover from this. Four years ago I made good money and was looking at houses. I didn't buy, and no matter how much I save I cant get ahead (single salary household). Even looking at new jobs, most pay less than I currently make, and I cant see finding one given my credentials that pays me the 50% more that I need to "get ahead".
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you need Dave Ramsey, i have bought 4 houses and numerous pieces of property. my wife has been a stay at home mom and my 3 kids have grown up and are out on there own. i did this on tradesman wages.
 
arse_sidewards said:
I assure you a huge fraction of the people in the software industry who do that talk about it. It's a pretty widely known strategy on the usual internet venues where people discuss those sorts of things.

I know voting doesn't matter but I would love to see the day that the feds fuck with tax policy in a way that absolutely crushes that behavior.
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I don't see it happening via the government. All these high dollar jobs went remote during the pandemic and people flooded back to lower income areas with their high salaries. How long before all these companies realize they can pay anyone to work remote. Why pay CA, NY, Chicago, etc salaries to someone in the rural South when they can just as easily hire someone remote in the 3rd world for pennies on the dollar vs their current employees. Or at the very least companies start adjusting pay down to match were employees are located. You'll also eventually see cost of living in these major cities start tanking as real estate starts sitting empty longer and longer.
 
Burns said:
I have a hard time understanding how anyone in my lifetime will ever recover from this. Four years ago I made good money and was looking at houses. I didn't buy, and no matter how much I save I cant get ahead (single salary household). Even looking at new jobs, most pay less than I currently make, and I cant see finding one given my credentials that pays me the 50% more that I need to "get ahead".
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Give up on ideal stuff, compromise everything to get started
 
gunracer1 said:
you need Dave Ramsey, i have bought 4 houses and numerous pieces of property. my wife has been a stay at home mom and my 3 kids have grown up and are out on there own. i did this on tradesman wages.
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You did all this pre- clown world. So did we. We bought our "last house" in 2018 on a whim. The plan was to wait until 21-23. Had we stuck to the plan, we'd be in half the house right now, or back in town on a tiny lot in a shitty school area, in a house comparable to my #1 or #2 with no shop.

It's not impossible at all, but the concept of building a nice life on middle class salary is about gone, and it's happened in 3 years.

I can sit down with a pencil right now, and pretend I'm 25 with the same job, same fiscal conservative ideals, same "move up through different houses dumping the earnings into the next one" plan and its just not gonna pencil out for me the way it did in the 00's and 10's.
 
45acp said:
You did all this pre- clown world. So did we. We bought our "last house" in 2018 on a whim. The plan was to wait until 21-23. Had we stuck to the plan, we'd be in half the house right now, or back in town on a tiny lot in a shitty school area, in a house comparable to my #1 or #2 with no shop.

It's not impossible at all, but the concept of building a nice life on middle class salary is about gone, and it's happened in 3 years.

I can sit down with a pencil right now, and pretend I'm 25 with the same job, same fiscal conservative ideals, same "move up through different houses dumping the earnings into the next one" plan and its just not gonna pencil out for me the way it did in the 00's and 10's.
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Only way to find out is in 5 years. 3 years ago we had a thread "how can anybody buy now?" And if those people then had bought when it was "insane" they'd be plenty comfortable now.
 
still lots of houses for sale out there, and i see more and more every week. my first house was less than 700 sqft. i have never had cable tv, we didn't waste money on eating out or high dollar entertainment. and I'm pretty sure i was making less than 13 bucks an hour. and i was paying on 12 acres i had purchased at 8% interest. house note was 8% also. i have never had a loan under 7% on any of my properties.
like i said before, when my wife quit to stay home and raise a family we had to give up eating out and new cars. we drove cash cars for many years, i usually had the beater. now i have the new ones.
 
gunracer1 said:
still lots of houses for sale out there, and i see more and more every week. my first house was less than 700 sqft. i have never had cable tv, we didn't waste money on eating out or high dollar entertainment. and I'm pretty sure i was making less than 13 bucks an hour. and i was paying on 12 acres i had purchased at 8% interest. house note was 8% also. i have never had a loan under 7% on any of my properties.
like i said before, when my wife quit to stay home and raise a family we had to give up eating out and new cars. we drove cash cars for many years, i usually had the beater. now i have the new ones.
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I get what you're saying, and agree... but also... my house went from $245k to $450k in 3 years. Three. Years. I did nothing to it.

Imaginary 25 year old me in 2023 with the same job as 25yr old me in Y2K... its just not the same. I could make it work, but my life would be 180 degrees different and it would suuuuuuuuck.
 
45acp said:
You did all this pre- clown world. So did we. We bought our "last house" in 2018 on a whim. The plan was to wait until 21-23. Had we stuck to the plan, we'd be in half the house right now, or back in town on a tiny lot in a shitty school area, in a house comparable to my #1 or #2 with no shop.

It's not impossible at all, but the concept of building a nice life on middle class salary is about gone, and it's happened in 3 years.

I can sit down with a pencil right now, and pretend I'm 25 with the same job, same fiscal conservative ideals, same "move up through different houses dumping the earnings into the next one" plan and its just not gonna pencil out for me the way it did in the 00's and 10's.
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It's also highly market dependent. I could make 3x what I'm making now and still struggle to buy a house here. Even with another 40% guaranteed over the next few years I'm still looking at buying land and having to live in an RV on it while I build something to have any chance of owning around here. And that's assuming things stay relatively the same which seems unlikely.

We're already the worst housing market in the country and now they're getting ready to build high speed, non-stop rail connecting Raleigh, Richmond, and DC. I was really hoping our office might move to Raleigh since that's where most of our work is now and there's still tons of open land outside the city, but seeing as how my boss just dropped a million on a new property and plans to spend another $300k+ on remodeling it, I don't see that happening.

edit: Oh and I already have very, very little debt. Mostly just my car that will get paid off within the next 2 years. I don't go out and do very little for hobbies. No amount of Davey Ramsey bullshit is getting me several houses and land around here.
 
Motorcharge said:
I don't see it happening via the government.
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I can see them doing it by accident. :laughing:
Motorcharge said:
All these high dollar jobs went remote during the pandemic and people flooded back to lower income areas with their high salaries. How long before all these companies realize they can pay anyone to work remote. Why pay CA, NY, Chicago, etc salaries to someone in the rural South when they can just as easily hire someone remote in the 3rd world for pennies on the dollar vs their current employees. Or at the very least companies start adjusting pay down to match were employees are located.
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3rd world culture/productivity barrier costs a lot. It's like herding cats. It can make sense for shit like QA though.

Most companies that allow remote work already adjust for local cost of living.
 
45acp said:
It's not impossible at all, but the concept of building a nice life on middle class salary is about gone, and it's happened in 3 years.
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By design.

Luckily I bought my house pre clown world and have a 3% interest rate with no other debt.

Bad news is I'm in NY and getting out is going to be a lot more expensive than if I had just gotten out back in 2017.
 
Motorcharge said:
It's also highly market dependent.
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This. Tons of people who put down roots in places that got filthy rich over the past few decades are crediting themselves when in reality they should be crediting dumb luck.

Nobody in 1993 knew with any degree of certainty that South Boston or McLean VA would go on a wealth and building boom and be stupid $$ in 30yr. The illiterate plumber/drywaller/whatever who just so happened to put down roots there and make a fuckton of money doing his thing and buying land along the way wasn't savvy. He was lucky.
 
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gunracer1 said:
still lots of houses for sale out there, and i see more and more every week. my first house was less than 700 sqft. i have never had cable tv, we didn't waste money on eating out or high dollar entertainment. and I'm pretty sure i was making less than 13 bucks an hour. and i was paying on 12 acres i had purchased at 8% interest. house note was 8% also. i have never had a loan under 7% on any of my properties.
like i said before, when my wife quit to stay home and raise a family we had to give up eating out and new cars. we drove cash cars for many years, i usually had the beater. now i have the new ones.
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If your talking about a time in history where you were making less than $13/hr as a tradesmen.....you're talking about over 20 yrs ago. I don't think our roofers were paid less than $21/hr in the last 20 yrs.

If your point is to make sacrifices for buying a home, that's a great point. For most people that's what it takes, and it's all relative. People with less have to sacrifice more to get there.

I don't know anywhere that pays $13/hr for tradesmen these days, so I don't think your example would work in today's fucked up cost of living.

I don't see how someone could have a stay at home wife and kids, buy 4 house and numerous properties, even with driving beaters and not eating out on $13/hr. If that's the case, I don't know what quality of life you can have with that much sacrifice. It's a balance.

I'm willing to sacrifice to a certain extent, one life to live though.
 
Snoop dogg said:
If your talking about a time in history where you were making less than $13/hr as a tradesmen.....you're talking about over 20 yrs ago. I don't think our roofers were paid less than $21/hr in the last 20 yrs.

If your point is to make sacrifices for buying a home, that's a great point. For most people that's what it takes, and it's all relative. People with less have to sacrifice more to get there.

I don't know anywhere that pays $13/hr for tradesmen these days, so I don't think your example would work in today's fucked up cost of living.

I don't see how someone could have a stay at home wife and kids, buy 4 house and numerous properties, even with driving beaters and not eating out on $13/hr. If that's the case, I don't know what quality of life you can have with that much sacrifice. It's a balance.

I'm willing to sacrifice to a certain extent, one life to live though.
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that was 34 years ago, but it is still applicable today. quit looking for excuses not to do it. stand up and make it happen.
 
Motorcharge said:
It's also highly market dependent. I could make 3x what I'm making now and still struggle to buy a house here. Even with another 40% guaranteed over the next few years I'm still looking at buying land and having to live in an RV on it while I build something to have any chance of owning around here. And that's assuming things stay relatively the same which seems unlikely.

We're already the worst housing market in the country and now they're getting ready to build high speed, non-stop rail connecting Raleigh, Richmond, and DC. I was really hoping our office might move to Raleigh since that's where most of our work is now and there's still tons of open land outside the city, but seeing as how my boss just dropped a million on a new property and plans to spend another $300k+ on remodeling it, I don't see that happening.

edit: Oh and I already have very, very little debt. Mostly just my car that will get paid off within the next 2 years. I don't go out and do very little for hobbies. No amount of Davey Ramsey bullshit is getting me several houses and land around here.
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again, poor people live everywhere. you owing two years on a car and you don't own a house tells me you need Dave.
 
gunracer1 said:
that was 34 years ago, but it is still applicable today. quit looking for excuses not to do it. stand up and make it happen.
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Hey bud. I'm just replying to your delusions.

I live within my means. My house is only 64sq/ft bigger than your first house....not to brag or anything at 764 sq/ft. All of my vehicles are paid off and drive a beater van to cut down on fuel costs and I live in an area where there really isn't anywhere to eat out. I'm not cheap but I'm frugal.

As far as a second property....that's the plan, but it's not snap my fingers and it happens. Which is how your post comes across...."you need Dave Ramsey in your life....". So you're telling me all of your success purely came from sacrifice and hard work? Nothing else?

Just to be clear I'm not making excuses, I'm not whining about what I don't have....im just replying to your post. Nowhere in this thread have I brought my circumstances until now....my quality of life is probably the best it's been in the last 10years.

If you think the times that you made your nut and the times now are comparable for cost of living, you are delusional. The fact that you could do it on $13/hr 34 yrs ago proves my point. Either you didn't sleep,eat, see your family and just worked OR THE COST OF LIVING WAS SO MUCH LOWER THAT YOU COULD SAVE.
 
I 100% agree with you about sacrifices and cutting spending.
I don't want to share my story of sacrifice so that I could buy my house but what I can tell you is that those hard decisions and sacrifices over 3 years were made in large part to how much it costs to live. I could have gotten to where I am sooner if shit didn't cost so much, but I can only sacrifice so much. Eating ramen and pb and j sandwiches is one thing....just flat out starving is another. It's the gap between wages and cost of living that has changed in the 34 years that you started your journey. That's my point.
 
I agree with Dave on a lot, but he's out of touch in the current market, and I think he knows it. My budget according to his rules means I cant afford land to set up a tent, and puts most of the western US off limits.
 
Burns said:
I have a hard time understanding how anyone in my lifetime will ever recover from this. Four years ago I made good money and was looking at houses. I didn't buy, and no matter how much I save I cant get ahead (single salary household). Even looking at new jobs, most pay less than I currently make, and I cant see finding one given my credentials that pays me the 50% more that I need to "get ahead".
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If I remember right, you've got some remote tech skills, and trade skills, single, with a paid for truck. Your skills are also in demand and wages have risen, you're far from fixed income. Not saying that your wages, or your potential wages have kept pace with your desired housing dollar for dollar, but you can shop your skills around, move if needed, freelance, chase fat contract work, whatever it takes to maximize your income.

Then, buy a fixer upper and put in sweat equity, use your labor instead of overpaying somebody else's inflated price.

It is what it is
 
arse_sidewards said:
Nobody in 1993 knew with any degree of certainty that South Boston or McLean VA would go on a wealth and building boom and be stupid $$ in 30yr. The illiterate plumber/drywaller/whatever who just so happened to put down roots there and make a fuckton of money doing his thing and buying land along the way wasn't savvy. He was lucky.
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Perfect mini-example of what you're talking about- the house I'm sitting in. 30-40 years ago all the land out here was worthless. The dad GC bought this 100 acres our neighborhood is on for $500/ acre in the 80's. Around Y2K the school down here started getting good, and middle/upper middle folks started flocking to this area. Now this neighborhood is going $10k-15k an acre.
gunracer1 said:
that was 34 years ago, but it is still applicable today. quit looking for excuses not to do it. stand up and make it happen.
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You are right, but your brain froze in 2019. Hopefully it won't ever thaw out, because honestly you don't want to know how absolutely fucked we are.
 
45acp said:
Perfect mini-example of what you're talking about- the house I'm sitting in. 30-40 years ago all the land out here was worthless. The dad GC bought this 100 acres our neighborhood is on for $500/ acre in the 80's. Around Y2K the school down here started getting good, and middle/upper middle folks started flocking to this area. Now this neighborhood is going $10k-15k an acre.

You are right, but your brain froze in 2019. Hopefully it won't ever thaw out, because honestly you don't want to know how absolutely fucked we are.
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Bullshit, I’m looking to buy more land right now. I know shit is high and I will have to pay if it trips my trigger. And I sure as hell never had any down payment assistance that so many have gotten the last 20 years.
The land here in my neighborhood which still has mobile homes in it are in the 70 to 100k an acre now a days. I wish I could find shit within a half hour for under ten An acre. But shit will have to collapse for that.
In 1984 or so my mother put up some of our land in redlick for 10,000 an acre, I thought she was crazy. She got it, it took a while but she got it.
 
gunracer1 said:
Bullshit, I’m looking to buy more land right now. I know shit is high and I will have to pay if it trips my trigger. And I sure as hell never had any down payment assistance that so many have gotten the last 20 years.
The land here in my neighborhood which still has mobile homes in it are in the 70 to 100k an acre now a days. I wish I could find shit within a half hour for under ten An acre. But shit will have to collapse for that.
In 1984 or so my mother put up some of our land in redlick for 10,000 an acre, I thought she was crazy. She got it, it took a while but she got it.
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You have multiple properties you can leverage. You have assets. Despite playing the same zero sum game you are not playing by the same rules as the people who are trying to get their first property.
 
arse_sidewards said:
You have multiple properties you can leverage. You have assets. Despite playing the same zero sum game you are not playing by the same rules as the people who are trying to get their first property.
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I sure as hell wasn’t born into money. I have never leveraged another property to buy more. But the real estate is what has made my retirement at 60 or so possible . I used my Texas veteran status to get that first piece of land. Saved up a down payment while the wife and I were just married to buy that pos house that we gutted and rebuilt 100%. While living in a job shack in someone’s back yard for 400 a month.
I have made a shit ton of bad decisions In The stock market. But I have used the ability to borrow from my 401k to advance my real estate holdings. I’m am paying off one of those dead horse loans this month.
and I am so glad I didn’t have to work two full time jobs for 20 years like my grandfather did when he emigrated here. But he had a pretty good life and a pretty good retirement.
 
gunracer1 said:
Bullshit, I’m looking to buy more land right now. I know shit is high and I will have to pay if it trips my trigger. And I sure as hell never had any down payment assistance that so many have gotten the last 20 years.
The land here in my neighborhood which still has mobile homes in it are in the 70 to 100k an acre now a days. I wish I could find shit within a half hour for under ten An acre. But shit will have to collapse for that.
In 1984 or so my mother put up some of our land in redlick for 10,000 an acre, I thought she was crazy. She got it, it took a while but she got it.
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Yea, again you're looking at 2023 as a retired-ish boomer... not a 20something gen zennial trying to get started in life and get out of the apartment and actually own something.

It's still possible with hard work and smart spending, but it's NOTHING like it was when I was 25.

Also, we're just talking houses. Forgetting to add that $200 groceries are now $500, that new $32k 4x4 is now $70k, that $1500 beater car is now $4k, that $30 water bill is now $80 etc. etc. etc.

We're in a new era none of us have ever seen before.
 
Snoop dogg said:
Hey bud. I'm just replying to your delusions.

I live within my means. My house is only 64sq/ft bigger than your first house....not to brag or anything at 764 sq/ft. All of my vehicles are paid off and drive a beater van to cut down on fuel costs and I live in an area where there really isn't anywhere to eat out. I'm not cheap but I'm frugal.

As far as a second property....that's the plan, but it's not snap my fingers and it happens. Which is how your post comes across...."you need Dave Ramsey in your life....". So you're telling me all of your success purely came from sacrifice and hard work? Nothing else?

Just to be clear I'm not making excuses, I'm not whining about what I don't have....im just replying to your post. Nowhere in this thread have I brought my circumstances until now....my quality of life is probably the best it's been in the last 10years.

If you think the times that you made your nut and the times now are comparable for cost of living, you are delusional. The fact that you could do it on $13/hr 34 yrs ago proves my point. Either you didn't sleep,eat, see your family and just worked OR THE COST OF LIVING WAS SO MUCH LOWER THAT YOU COULD SAVE.
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I will say that I didn't sleep.

Working a full time and then a part time job and my wife was working full time, that's how we got started. If it weren't for her working, I'd have been in a smaller place. Our first house was 1600 sf and the most expensive one we've ever lived in.
 
45acp said:
Yea, again you're looking at 2023 as a retired-ish boomer... not a 20something gen zennial trying to get started in life and get out of the apartment and actually own something.

It's still possible with hard work and smart spending, but it's NOTHING like it was when I was 25.

Also, we're just talking houses. Forgetting to add that $200 groceries are now $500, that new $32k 4x4 is now $70k, that $1500 beater car is now $4k, that $30 water bill is now $80 etc. etc. etc.

We're in a new era none of us have ever seen before.
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and still working 2 part time jobs at 15+/hr would get it there. The one job thing is absolutely not going to cut it. It didn't 20 years ago either
 
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