How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

[brantb]

Looking over at another forum on malibu boats, there are constant discussions about delays, and price increases. All the major manufacturers have delayed delivers, and canceled all non-sold orders. Some are even shipping incomplete boats and sending parts for dealers to install once they come in. They(malibu) put out an memo stating that prices will probably increase well over previous years. Typically it is 6% YoY. I would guess double that for 22MY boats. They are pushing spray dates for hulls back to july, which is the 22 model year at that point.

Generalizing, we have all seen or heard of the increase for raw materials relating to just about everything. New build houses around my area jump 3-6k almost every week. Used cars are fetching a premium. Steel, copper, and other metals have seen a big jump. My wife tells me groceries have gotten more expensive since covid and are still going up. Gas is up close to 50% in the past 6 months. Biden is pushing 2T more for infrastructure which is going to push demand way up raw materials that are already in short supply. Companies are shutting down plants until they have sufficient supply.

I am not old enough, but i have heard reference to the 80s when there was jumps in inflation. I read 2% for 2020, but just from what i have been spending it seems like 10%. With all the printing of money, how out of hand are things going to get? How does this get corrected? It seems like they would need to increase interest rates to slow borrowing, but if there is any mention of that people will freak out which will cause the economy to tank.

 

[DirtRoads]

I think it is underway in a big way and the worst is to come. When everyone gets $1200, effectively nobody gets $1200. The government just devalued the fawk out of our currency.

 

[rockota]

look at the used trailer market... inflation is hitting hard. Not because prices are going up, because the value of the dollar is intentionally tanking, as you mentioned.

And ignore the official inflation calculations that exclude a lot of consumer goods.

 

[FleshEater]

Can you really use the used market as a basis? Seems every jag off has been pricing stuff up for years, because someone had one thing listed at top dollar. Now things are just harder to buy new due to shortages, so everyone is spending way too much on stuff.

 

[Thumping]

We haven't seen shit yet...

 

[DirtRoads]

Can you really use the used market as a basis? Seems every jag off has been pricing stuff up for years, because someone had one thing listed at top dollar. Now things are just harder to buy new due to shortages, so everyone is spending way too much on stuff.

In some cases, I think so. The used market will somewhat trend with the new market. Say you have a trailer that is 50% "used" and a new trailer now costs 50% more, it would only make sense to charge more for your used trailer. A prospective buyer will still look at your item as a savings as compared to the new unit.

 

[mobil1syn]

Can you really use the used market as a basis? Seems every jag off has been pricing stuff up for years, because someone had one thing listed at top dollar. Now things are just harder to buy new due to shortages, so everyone is spending way too much on stuff.

i think the used market is about hoarding right now as many people here have mentioned. tangible items have more percieved 'value' than money in the bank.

 

[Fullsize80cherokee]

It’s the forgivable PPP loan guys who are laundering their .gov funny money into their toys and properties. The stimulus check receivers are the pawns, the big boys are getting hundreds of thousand if not millions, because covid.

yea shits fucked, if you don’t own a home now you better act fast because they are going to unattainable soon IMO unless you are a millionaire.

 

[2big bronco]

In some cases, I think so. The used market will somewhat trend with the new market. Say you have a trailer that is 50% "used" and a new trailer now costs 50% more, it would only make sense to charge more for your used trailer. A prospective buyer will still look at your item as a savings as compared to the new unit.

In central California uned trailers are 100-150% of new trailers

 

[brantb]

In some cases, I think so. The used market will somewhat trend with the new market. Say you have a trailer that is 50% "used" and a new trailer now costs 50% more, it would only make sense to charge more for your used trailer. A prospective buyer will still look at your item as a savings as compared to the new unit.

I agree. Another example with boats, because i miss mine. Last year the local dealer was advertising 40% off sticker for 19 MY boats. Im sure you could negotiate more to get to 45%. Typically a hold over will be 30%, 35% if they really want it gone. People who bought those leftovers were getting offers months later for 20-25k over what they paid. 21 MY boats are not being discounted much due to demand, and i doubt there will be many leftovers. They are expecting a big jump in price for 22 MY boats, so basically that is dragging up the used market with it. 10-20 year old boats are selling for almost what they were when bought new.

Only a matter of time before there are large price jumps for new vehicles, especially trucks, so that will also drag used values up

 

[grumpy356]

When we are so concerned with how the economy is about to tank, yet there is such a demand for toys, makes me think that we aren't in any danger.

When people quit looking at Boats and RV's.. because they can't afford their rent and groceries, then we are starting to have problems.



My GAWD!! MY GAWD!!! WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE ECONOMY????? I CAN"T EVEN GET A NEW BOAT!!!

 

[ConwayMuddy]

When we are so concerned with how the economy is about to tank, yet there is such a demand for toys, makes me think that we aren't in any danger.

When people quit looking at Boats and RV's.. because they can't afford their rent and groceries, then we are starting to have problems.



My GAWD!! MY GAWD!!! WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE ECONOMY????? I CAN"T EVEN GET A NEW BOAT!!!

I agree somewhat, but you have to remember, people are morons. They will finance anything and everything for 7-11 years because "it's only this much a month, hurdur!"

 

[bgaidan]

So what's the best way to hedge against the inevitable mass inflation as far as cash and/or property go?

 

[brantb]

So what's the best way to hedge against the inevitable mass inflation as far as cash and/or property go?

I think everyone would like to know the right answer. I am trying to find income generating land to dump my cash into.

 

[ThePanzerFuhrer]

My GAWD!! MY GAWD!!! WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE ECONOMY????? I CAN"T EVEN GET A NEW BOAT!!!

This might be the case but it will swing the other direction really quickly. My dad and wife think I’m losing it because I’m selling most of my toys. I think they think I’m having a nervous breakdown of some sort because I never sell shit. In all reality I want to hoard cash for the crash so I can buy the screaming deals when they come up.

It’s so crazy I might buy a reman engine for that d3c I have in the back yard. I bought it for 1400 so there is room for repairs lol. Those fuckers are bringing 25+k. Its absolutely stupid lol.

 

[ThePanzerFuhrer]

So what's the best way to hedge against the inevitable mass inflation as far as cash and/or property go?

The stupid thing is the best way to hedge against inflation is buy as much shit as you can on credit. When you repay it with currency that is worth 80-90% the purchasing power you bought the shit with. If you can hold the note while the economy swings because of inflation you win and the banks lose.

 

[bgaidan]

I think everyone would like to know the right answer. I am trying to find income generating land to dump my cash into.

I'm sitting on a decent amount of cash and I could potentially take a mortgage on the house I just paid cash for....and wait. The ridiculous real estate market has to crash at some point. When it does, it'd be nice to have a bunch of cash to buy rental properties.

Or just push really hard and pay off the mortgage on my main house, the only debt I currently have, and not give a fuck what happens.

 

[Juztyn00]

When we are so concerned with how the economy is about to tank, yet there is such a demand for toys, makes me think that we aren't in any danger.

When people quit looking at Boats and RV's.. because they can't afford their rent and groceries, then we are starting to have problems.



My GAWD!! MY GAWD!!! WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE ECONOMY????? I CAN"T EVEN GET A NEW BOAT!!!

I think Its more the realization that debt means nothing anymore.

 

[mobil1syn]

I think Its more the realization that debt means nothing anymore.

buy it on credit, enjoy it, walk away when you cant make the payment, rinse and repeat will be the new approach.

 

[FleshEater]

i think the used market is about hoarding right now as many people here have mentioned. tangible items have more percieved 'value' than money in the bank.

I agree. I’ve bought 3 vehicles in one year. All were decent deals in my opinion and I plan on keeping them forever.

When I find a good deal on a used vehicle it is hard to pass it up after seeing how stupid the market has gotten.


As for trailers I could sell my trailer today and make money on it. Craziness.

 

[ConwayMuddy]

It’s so crazy I might buy a reman engine for that d3c I have in the back yard. I bought it for 1400 so there is room for repairs lol. Those fuckers are bringing 25+k. Its absolutely stupid lol.

what's the current engine need? I've been looking for a new to me dozer. Shut up and take my money.

 

[Trackerbacker(fvckvs)]

Dont confuse supply v. demand, inflation and price increase/gouging.

Theres a metric fuck ton of shit going on with weird dynamics in play not seen before that'll skew past indicators.

My opinion, 7-14 months you'll see crumbling and dominoes swaying. Reasoning will be the early 70s,late 80s and late 00s recessions basis all rolled into 1.

I hope im wrong, but if I'm right, I'm planning to take advantage.

 

[Lawless]

This might be the case but it will swing the other direction really quickly. My dad and wife think I’m losing it because I’m selling most of my toys. I think they think I’m having a nervous breakdown of some sort because I never sell shit. In all reality I want to hoard cash for the crash so I can buy the screaming deals when they come up.

It’s so crazy I might buy a reman engine for that d3c I have in the back yard. I bought it for 1400 so there is room for repairs lol. Those fuckers are bringing 25+k. Its absolutely stupid lol.

Exactly what I told my GF. We have a 30' 2018 camping trailer and I am gonna sell it, I am because I will get within hundreds of what I paid for it I might even get a few bucks more. There's nothing on the dealers lots and one dealer is saying he won't even entertain orders for next year, big volume place usually has 2 or 300 units this time of year and he's got less that 50 this year.

My plan is to sit on that cash and when things flip in a couple of years I'll go buy another brand new one at a deep discount and have cash left over.

 

[Eric]

This is what happens when people who do not understand economics (politicians) make decisions that impact the economy.

 

[TRINDU]

Dont confuse supply v. demand, inflation and price increase/gouging.

Theres a metric fuck ton of shit going on with weird dynamics in play not seen before that'll skew past indicators.

My opinion, 7-14 months you'll see crumbling and dominoes swaying. Reasoning will be the early 70s,late 80s and late 00s recessions basis all rolled into 1.

I hope im wrong, but if I'm right, I'm planning to take advantage.

I hope you're right, and wish it would happen yesterday.

 

[Eric]

. . . In all reality I want to hoard cash for the crash so I can buy the screaming deals when they come up. . . .

Interesting strategy. My thinking is just the opposite. Cash is going to become worthless. Land, tools, equipment, firearms will remain valuable even if cash becomes worthless.

 

[ThePanzerFuhrer]

what's the current engine need? I've been looking for a new to me dozer. Shut up and take my money.

It’s the stupid Mitsubishi 6 cylinder motor. Cat calls it a 3046. They have a notorious tendency to window the block. Which it’s windowed as we speak. Was gonna retrofit a 4bt in there but I’m always short on time. I can find new ones for about 12,000ish. It’s a nice dozer it can’t have but 100 hours on a new undercarriage.

 

[Thumping]

Interesting strategy. My thinking is just the opposite. Cash is going to become worthless. Land, tools, equipment, firearms will remain valuable even if cash becomes worthless.

Items hold their value regardless what the value of the dollar does. That's why people can't grasp doubling the minimum wage would result in those making wage would effectively lose buying power.

 

[ThePanzerFuhrer]

Interesting strategy. My thinking is just the opposite. Cash is going to become worthless. Land, tools, equipment, firearms will remain valuable even if cash becomes worthless.

Yes and no. I said you finance those big purchases that will most definitely inflate in value. I want cash to be able to capitalize on others misfortune. The guys that need to sell their toys today because tomorrow they need to make the house payment.

 

[gunracer1]

The stupid thing is the best way to hedge against inflation is buy as much shit as you can on credit. When you repay it with currency that is worth 80-90% the purchasing power you bought the shit with. If you can hold the note while the economy swings because of inflation you win and the banks lose.

i have been thinking about buying another house because of this.