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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

2big bronco said:
0 or 20%
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oh man
that'd be even better haha
"we just gave out a bunch of free money, now we're going to pay those who took it 20% interest on the free money they loaned out at 3% interest"

Too bad the currency collapse from the US defaulting on all its debt would make it less painfully obvious what is going on.
 
shortbus4x4 said:
I remember what a Vietnam vet who flew medevacs told me, auto-rotation is not a landing, it's a controlled crash you hope to survive. He'd had a few helos shot full of holes but he was always able to get them back to base until the last one where he had to auto rotate, he lived but had some rods in his back from it. He also said you have to have impeccable timing and luck or you crash and die instead of just crashing.:usa:

Hopefully the Feds have impeccable timing and luck but somehow I doubt it.
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“It will be different this time” “soft landing “

Nope, they always manage to break something and everything crashes. I’ve been to this movie before.
 
shortbus4x4 said:
I remember what a Vietnam vet who flew medevacs told me, auto-rotation is not a landing, it's a controlled crash you hope to survive. He'd had a few helos shot full of holes but he was always able to get them back to base until the last one where he had to auto rotate, he lived but had some rods in his back from it. He also said you have to have impeccable timing and luck or you crash and die instead of just crashing.:usa:

Hopefully the Feds have impeccable timing and luck but somehow I doubt it.
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Nah. Some helicopters you always land in an auto rotation. Obviously the engine didn’t crap out but they are not producing power. I saw a jet ranger autorotate to land then the rotor still had enough energy to lift off and hover 180 degrees and set back down.

A better analogy for it would be a multi engine plane with the engines dead on fire with the pilot passes out. That’s where we are now.
 
www.pennlive.com

Demand at food banks and pantries reaches ‘catastrophic’ levels

The number of families seeking food assistance at food banks and other community aid programs has reached catastrophic and historic levels, even as the volume of donations to these programs is on the downward trend. Food advocates point to a number of factors.
www.pennlive.com www.pennlive.com

In some cases, pantries across the region are witnessing double the demand from last year; many are logging 30% monthly increases.



“It’s the highest ever, including comparing it back to the pandemic when we thought we were at a peak that would never be exceeded,” said Joe Arthur, executive director of the Central Pennsylvania Food Bank, the hub for just about every food pantry in the region. “We are actually above pandemic levels in terms of pantry visits, pounds of food. Any way you measure it. We are up.”
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Between funding proxy wars, supporting climate crisis and equity abroad, etc. it seems this administration, scratch that every politician in DC, is dead set on squeezing every penny from our pockets and exporting it out of this country. No one from either side is standing up for the average American. Am I the only one that sees it? Our dollars are worth less and less each passing day and the only thing we ever hear from our government is more and more spending and with most of it going overseas with no plan and no oversight.
 
Wes in TN said:
Between funding proxy wars, supporting climate crisis and equity abroad, etc. it seems this administration, scratch that every politician in DC, is dead set on squeezing every penny from our pockets and exporting it out of this country. No one from either side is standing up for the average American. Am I the only one that sees it? Our dollars are worth less and less each passing day and the only thing we ever hear from our government is more and more spending and with most of it going overseas with no plan and no oversight.
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It's all going according to plan....
 
Wes in TN said:
Between funding proxy wars, supporting climate crisis and equity abroad, etc. it seems this administration, scratch that every politician in DC, is dead set on squeezing every penny from our pockets and exporting it out of this country. No one from either side is standing up for the average American. Am I the only one that sees it? Our dollars are worth less and less each passing day and the only thing we ever hear from our government is more and more spending and with most of it going overseas with no plan and no oversight.
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Ready to get off the porch yet? We all see it happening and do nothing. Until the average citizens stand together and are willing to lose what little the .gov has not already taken from us we will continue to watch rome fall......
 
Pyleit said:
Ready to get off the porch yet? We all see it happening and do nothing. Until the average citizens stand together and are willing to lose what little the .gov has not already taken from us we will continue to watch rome fall......
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Lead us!
 
Kaptain said:
www.pennlive.com

Demand at food banks and pantries reaches ‘catastrophic’ levels

The number of families seeking food assistance at food banks and other community aid programs has reached catastrophic and historic levels, even as the volume of donations to these programs is on the downward trend. Food advocates point to a number of factors.
www.pennlive.com www.pennlive.com
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Food banks are always at “peak demand” gotta pull the heartstrings of the sensitive types that donate too the cause.

When trump was bragging about the stock market they claimed they were more needy than ever for donations.
 
Pyleit said:
Ready to get off the porch yet? We all see it happening and do nothing. Until the average citizens stand together and are willing to lose what little the .gov has not already taken from us we will continue to watch rome fall......
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Reminds me of the one person running around while someone gets beaten down yelling, why won't someone do anything?

Is no one going to help that poor man? Hush Harriet. That's a sure way to get him killed 😁
 
Published: 1:49 PM CDT October 11, 2023

Updated: 1:50 PM CDT October 11, 2023



DALLAS — Editor's note: This article was originally published in the Dallas Business Journal here.

New home starts across North Texas remain strong despite the continued climb in the 30-year mortgage rate, according to a new report.

North Texas builders initiated construction on 13,348 homes in the third quarter of the year — slightly lower than the 14,637 starts in the second quarter but 39% higher than the 9,592 starts in the same period a year ago, according to Dallas-based housing analyst Residential Strategies Inc.



As a result, the North Texas annual start pace improved to 45,908 units, up 8.9% quarter-over-quarter and down 14.5% from a year ago.

New home starts in North Texas varied relatively widely by submarket, said Cassie Gibson, senior vice president with Residential Strategies Inc.

“Many of the northern suburbs that have been positively affected by relocation buyers continue to show strength,” Gibson said in the report. “However, regions of the Metroplex characterized by lower household incomes continue to wrestle with housing affordability. These submarkets are the areas where the trend in new home sales have declined the most.”

“It is especially important for builders to provide mortgage rate buy-downs and incentives to maintain a healthy sales pace in these rate-sensitive submarkets,” she added.

Prices for new homes across Dallas-Fort Worth, meanwhile, remain at or near all-time highs.

New vs. pre-owned homes​


Sales activity in the existing home market remains “muted,” the report noted. Homeowners that have a 30-year mortgage in the 3% to 4% range remain reluctant to consider listing their house for sale and, as a result, existing home sales have declined.

There were 92,699 existing home sales in North Texas for the 12-month period ending Aug. 23, down 12.9% year over year, according to data released by the Texas A&M Real Estate Data Center.

At the end of August, there were 20,982 existing home listings for sale representing just a 2.7-month supply of inventory. A six-month supply is considered equilibrium in the pre-owned home market.

“New home sales continue to garner an outsized share of market” Gibson said. “Not only are many homeowners reluctant to walk away from ultra-low mortgage rates, but homebuilders are able to provide mortgage rate buy-down opportunities on new homes that make monthly payments on new homes much more affordable in the initial years of purchase as compared to nearby resale inventory.”



Carolyn Rosson, president and CEO of Dallas-based residential real estate firm The Ebby Halliday Cos., said new home sales have become an increasingly important part of the overall housing market as inventory has tightened for resales.

“It's interesting because the inventory for new homes in some markets is plentiful and in others is not very plentiful at all,” Rosson said in an interview with the Dallas Business Journal. "Sometimes our clients are willing to drive a little bit further to secure a new home. With remote working since the pandemic, that has changed the process in many families' decision to purchase. If they can work from home, the location doesn't matter as much.”

New home inventory ‘in good shape’​


In the new home market, builders report that many of the positive sales and traffic trends that emerged this past spring continued through the summer, said Ted Wilson, principal with Residential Strategies. Nonetheless, with the 30-year mortgage rate surging toward 7.5%, “we would not be surprised if traffic and sales moderate further,” he said.

Homebuilders had another strong quarter of home closings between July and September, with 13,096 single-family homes and townhomes closed in the quarter. Annual closings are pacing at 52,670 homes — very close to the pace of 52,752 units in the second quarter and up 5.4% from year-ago pace of 49,953 closings.

Housing inventory levels remain “in good shape” for supply-demand conditions, according to the Residential Strategies report. The number of homes under construction remained generally flat for the quarter at 28,548 homes. The level of finished vacant inventory inched slightly higher from 7,895 to 8,287 homes during the quarter but remains at a healthy 1.9-month supply. Residential Strategies considers a 2- to 2.5-month supply to represent a balanced market for new homes.


“Over the past year, builders have seen excellent improvement in construction cycle times (the time it takes to build a house), and direct construction costs are generally flat to slightly down,” Wilson said in the report.

Builders continue to closely watch the Federal Reserve’s actions and outlook. While many are hopeful that the Fed is nearing or has reached the conclusion of its series of rate hikes, the Fed has signaled that it plans to keep rates higher for an extended period in its battle to reduce inflation, Wilson said.

At the beginning of July, the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.81% according to Freddie Mac. The most recent report for the week of Oct. 5 indicates that the rate has now climbed to 7.49%, Wilson said.

Most Dallas-Fort Worth builders are performing stress tests on their sales backlogs and closely watching for increases in cancellations in light of the recent run-up in rates, Wilson said.

“In 4Q22, as the mortgage rate exceeded 7%, there was a noticeable slowdown in traffic and sales,” Wilson said. “We would not be surprised if history repeats itself in 4Q23.”

More Texas headlines:

​

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Void_of_Light said:
And every business in town still has permanent help wanted signs.
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Same thing around here, and then the food bank recipients will take to posting on FB how they got ripped off at the food bank:confused:

Another good one. We get an inch or two of snow and there are 50 posts looking to shovel your driveway etc. BUT " I need a ride and don't have a shovel. " or even better we get a foot of snow or more and all of those posts disappear. :shaking:
 
Bullshit fearmongering. No fucking way we're gonna see deflation. It's too easy and benifits the powers that be too much to just run the press harder to counter it if it ever becomes an issue.
 
Burns said:
When do we get to all revolt as a country on paying income tax? GIVE ME MY GROSS PAY
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Only 3% of the population revolted last time.

By today maths that's about 10,000,000 people. Gonna take a lot of memes and tiktoks to recruit that number.
 
MuntCuffin said:
Assume everything they do is to inflict the maximum amount of damage, and then their actions make sense...
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All the side effects of having a centrally planned economy.
arse_sidewards said:
Bullshit fearmongering. No fucking way we're gonna see deflation. It's too easy and benifits the powers that be too much to just run the press harder to counter it if it ever becomes an issue.
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Yup, can't possibly have the currency actually gain value, got to keep it lowering by 2%+ a year. Deflation would actually increase our purchasing power.

Side note:
Man I miss arguing monetary policy with screwy on the old board.
 
is anyone else really disappointed in themselves for not loading up on as much debt as possible on the runup to this?

because goddamn... at least I dumped the cash I had into buying my house so it didn't all evaporate like it would have, but I'm noticing all my taxes are going up pretty sharply which anyone could obviously see was going to happen, but now I'm kinda locked in to having extremely taxable assets like land (and some shit withering away in the stock market but I kinda already consider that gone)

I was gonna do the RV in a pole shed thing, but then I've been doing house things for a while now and that's gonna fuck me on my next assessment if I do end up finishing it instead of playing the 'no siding it's unfinished' game
 
[486] said:
is anyone else really disappointed in themselves for not loading up on as much debt as possible on the runup to this?
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If you behaved like some of the older members of our community and financed your life you'd still be feeling it hard because the meager amount of income you have that isn't used to service that debt would instead get eaten by inflation.
 
Guess it's just like what I've got in the market that I tried selling back in feb
no matter what it is it's the same story of wishing you'd got in at a lower cost and sold at a higher price

yeah they'll be stuck paying it off, but with how prices spiked there was certainly money to be made, having bought stuff with a strong dollar and paying for it with weak ones
gunracer really did it right
 
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