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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

[486] said:
Guess it's just like what I've got in the market that I tried selling back in feb
no matter what it is it's the same story of wishing you'd got in at a lower cost and sold at a higher price

yeah they'll be stuck paying it off, but with how prices spiked there was certainly money to be made, having bought stuff with a strong dollar and paying for it with weak ones
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I think you're trying too hard to generalize macroeconomic situation down to the micro level.

The debt is going to be hard to service without income and income always lags inflation so basically it's gonna suck and hamper their cashflow for the duration.

The real winners are the people who cashed out of mediocre accommodations in expensive areas for lavish property in cheap ones. So basically the worse people possible, generally speaking.

[486] said:
gunracer really did it right
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What did he do?
 
arse_sidewards said:
I think you're trying too hard to generalize macroeconomic situation down to the micro level.

The debt is going to be hard to service without income and income always lags inflation so basically it's gonna suck and hamper their cashflow for the duration.

The real winners are the people who cashed out of mediocre accommodations in expensive areas for lavish property in cheap ones. So basically the worse people possible, generally speaking.
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when you look at inflation as the result of the distribution of officially counterfeit money, the only way to get in on the scam is to get in on the money before others do, and loans are basically the only way for little people to get in on that game


but gaming the currency market is just like gaming any market
so it isn't really anything I should get too upset about
I did it about half good, liquidating cash at a relatively good time. Coulda done better if I went harder, but that's how she goes.
 
[486] said:
when you look at inflation as the result of the distribution of officially counterfeit money, the only way to get in on the scam is to get in on the money before others do, and loans are basically the only way for little people to get in on that game
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Cantillon effect

Those who first receive freshly printed money are able to scoop all the deals at uninflated prices.

By the time that money gets to the rest of us, everything is much more expensive.

Exactly as intended.
 
Mikel said:
Cantillon effect
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reading up on that and as with everything I'm getting wild variances, including one that's claiming "prices for debt based stuff like housing is going down while commodity-locked things like oil and materials are going up" which is some opposite day shit
wikipedia has this to say:
"Cantillon suggested that inflation occurs gradually and that the new supply of money has a localised effect on inflation, effectively originating the concept of non-neutral money.[62] Furthermore, he posited that the original recipients of new money enjoy higher standards of living at the expense of later recipients.[63] The concept of relative inflation, or a disproportionate rise in prices among different goods in an economy, is now known as the Cantillon Effect"
which makes more sense

I was more going at it from an understanding more along the wiki one quoted, but instead derived solely from Hoppe.


ETA:
ah fuck you edited more in there after I quoted you
yeah, that
 
I guess I live in a bubble. I didn't realize until today how bad things are out there. I was talking to a young girl bank teller, has a small child, married, both work, can barely get by. she was telling me how they were not going to buy for their son as no extra money available. She also told me they are 10K in credit card debt. I was telling my wife how bad I feel for them but nothing I can really do. I did tell her tocheck into WIC for some help.
FUCK JOE BIDEN and his bidenomics:flipoff::flipoff::flipoff:
 
Anyone gotten out of cash except for an emergency fund? What did you buy and/or invest in? It sucks if you put $100K in the bank six years ago you've already lost $26K in buying power.
 
the conservative atheist said:
Anyone gotten out of cash except for an emergency fund? What did you buy and/or invest in? It sucks if you put $100K in the bank six years ago you've already lost $26K in buying power.
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I pretty much burnt through everything by working about 3 months/yr for the last 4 years while buying stupid shit and "remodelling" my "house"

the time to have done that was a while back
if you've got cash now, basically all you can do is hang onto it in order to scoop up the deals to be had from people trying to keep the repo man at bay
 
the conservative atheist said:
Anyone gotten out of cash except for an emergency fund? What did you buy and/or invest in? It sucks if you put $100K in the bank six years ago you've already lost $26K in buying power.
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The stock market.... im WAY the fawk up since 6 years ago.

Per the Cantillon effect listed out above:
the market might not get the money first, but it gets the freshly printed money pretty quickly. Those in power have their $$$ stashed there and are invested in it going to the moon:laughing:. It seems to float pretty well.
 
[486] said:
I pretty much burnt through everything by working about 3 months/yr for the last 4 years while buying stupid shit and "remodelling" my "house"

the time to have done that was a while back
if you've got cash now, basically all you can do is hang onto it in order to scoop up the deals to be had from people trying to keep the repo man at bay.
Click to expand...

I'm rapidly approaching the point where it's hard to justify working 40 hours. I can live on much less, so what's the point of giving up all my time to sock away cash that loses value? I guess I should get smarter about investing.
 
[486] said:
if you've got cash now, basically all you can do is hang onto it in order to scoop up the deals to be had from people trying to keep the repo man at bay
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This is kinda what I meant by debt being bad for cash flow earlier. To someone handy like you the ability to have cash to do that stuff is probably more beneficial to your standard of living than having a bigger house for cheaper.
 
the conservative atheist said:
I'm rapidly approaching the point where it's hard to justify working 40 hours. I can live on much less, so what's the point of giving up all my time to sock away cash that loses value? I guess I should get smarter about investing.
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that was me, and the straw that broke my back was in '19

the time to get into investing isn't really obvious
the market might crash further, or it might be the devaluation of the dollar that makes it seem as though the market should be tanking further than it has...
 
the conservative atheist said:
Anyone gotten out of cash except for an emergency fund? What did you buy and/or invest in? It sucks if you put $100K in the bank six years ago you've already lost $26K in buying power.
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Pretty much, I call it being poor :flipoff2:

After I set a bunch of money on fire to buy my current house, I've just been burning it up on food and fuel, sticking with paycheck to paycheck living
 
[486] said:
and I'm way the fuck down since 10 years ago
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How the hell do you pull that off:homer:
We all cant be XtreemJ making it rain, but justjamming $$$ into index funds gives you some diversification across the market

S&P500
1702008475853.png



The dow looks almost the same:laughing:
 
Clemson13 said:
How the hell do you pull that off:homer:
We all cant be XtreemJ making it rain, but justjamming $$$ into index funds gives you some diversification across the market

S&P500
1702008475853.png



The dow looks almost the same:laughing:
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I don't buy indexes, I buy and sell but on a really long timescale, only things that'll pay a dividend yield
Just about broke even with what I've put in. there were several times I was up by 25% or thereabouts, but I always manage to ride those back down
 
arse_sidewards said:
The real winners are the people who cashed out of mediocre accommodations in expensive areas for lavish property in cheap ones. So basically the worse people possible, generally speaking.
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Absolutely this.

There's a recent influx of people from giant urban blue state cities. They bought 1200ft houses on 2500ft lots back in the 90’s-00's. Sold those homes during covid and made 1000% gains. Came here, paid cash for a McMansion on 3 acres in the woods, had a couple hundred thousand leftover in savings. Sure, their new job in the career field pays 60% what they were making in Los Diegos, but the taxes and cost of living is 40% what it was back home and now they've got a master bedroom twice the size of their old living room and no house payment.

Can't blame 'em. Went from "sort of getting by" middle class to upper-middleclass + debt elimination by doing nothing other than reserving a Ryder truck. Meanwhile my 401k is LOL.
 
45acp said:
Absolutely this.

There's a recent influx of people from giant urban blue state cities. They bought 1200ft houses on 2500ft lots back in the 90’s-00's. Sold those homes during covid and made 1000% gains. Came here, paid cash for a McMansion on 3 acres in the woods, had a couple hundred thousand leftover in savings. Sure, their new job in the career field pays 60% what they were making in Los Diegos, but the taxes and cost of living is 40% what it was back home and now they've got a master bedroom twice the size of their old living room and no house payment.

Can't blame 'em. Went from "sort of getting by" middle class to upper-middleclass + debt elimination by doing nothing other than reserving a Ryder truck. Meanwhile my 401k is LOL.
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The California migration thing is like the investment strategy that nobody talks about. If you move out there when you’re young and stupid, and grow into that economy and wages without knowing any different, it is like moving to Mexico with USA money when you come back this direction.
 
DirtRoads said:
The California migration thing is like the investment strategy that nobody talks about. If you move out there when you’re young and stupid, and grow into that economy and wages without knowing any different, it is like moving to Mexico with USA money when you come back this direction.
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Mid-90's, the $40k starter home in flyover country was $150k in San Diego. Today that's a $1.2mil house with just some paint, floor, and new countertops all done in the last decade. So you load up the family and move to shitfuck east Texas with over a million in your checking account. Sure, your pissy mid-level management job that paid $150k in 'Diego only pays $100k here... but you just bought a doctor's house for $550k cash, paid off all the debt, have a 4 car garage to park all the paid off vehicles, moved a couple hundred thousand to savings, and just hired an AV service to put $30k home theater gear in your game room.

This time last year you were arguing over buying the kids school clothes. Now you're arguing over getting them a new stang vs used Benz.

I get it.
 
DirtRoads said:
The California migration thing is like the investment strategy that nobody talks about. If you move out there when you’re young and stupid, and grow into that economy and wages without knowing any different, it is like moving to Mexico with USA money when you come back this direction.
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I assure you a huge fraction of the people in the software industry who do that talk about it. It's a pretty widely known strategy on the usual internet venues where people discuss those sorts of things.

I know voting doesn't matter but I would love to see the day that the feds fuck with tax policy in a way that absolutely crushes that behavior.
 
45acp said:
Mid-90's, the $40k starter home in flyover country was $150k in San Diego. Today that's a $1.2mil house with just some paint, floor, and new countertops all done in the last decade. So you load up the family and move to shitfuck east Texas with over a million in your checking account. Sure, your pissy mid-level management job that paid $150k in 'Diego only pays $100k here... but you just bought a doctor's house for $550k cash, paid off all the debt, have a 4 car garage to park all the paid off vehicles, moved a couple hundred thousand to savings, and just hired an AV service to put $30k home theater gear in your game room.

This time last year you were arguing over buying the kids school clothes. Now you're arguing over getting them a new stang vs used Benz.

I get it.
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I get it but I also want their heads on pikes.

They're no better for your community than the Arabs are for France. The only difference is they're rich so people don't complain as much about the destruction of their culture because they're too busy trying to lift a buck out of the pockets of the commies.
 
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arse_sidewards said:
I get it but I also want their heads on pikes.

They're no better for your community than the Arabs are for France. The only difference is they're rich so people don't complain as much about the destruction of their culture because they're too busy trying to lift a buck out of the pockets of the commies.
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Depends on how they vote i guess. My IL next door neighbor is die hard forever republican, nothing exists but the red team. No exceptions. He's weird, and stand-off-ish, and doesn't jive with the traditional southern hospitality... but he's definitely not trying to turn us into Chicago.

The CA's behind me? No clue. They've been here 2 years and refuse to speak. They cover their eyes with their hands anytime someone drives passed their house. :laughing:
 
arse_sidewards said:
In theory, sure. In practice, well the stats paint a picture...

Is it worth the risk? IDK I'm not liking the results so far.

Sure, 45% of them may be good but it only takes small margins to make huge effects in society.
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Life is a tradeoff. I live in a region controlled by the Southern Baptist Mafia. Up until a few years ago, your couldn't buy alcohol on the left side of town because it was a dry county. Still can't buy beer on the right side of town on Sundays, because someone could possibly see your sins in public on their way to church. Even with pot legal for medical, you have to be dying of AIDS to get a script.

All of these people are die hard R's. And as agitated as I may get sometimes, this is 1000x better than life in the monster blue urban sprawl with the 2 hour 28 mile commute.
 
dave_dj1 said:
I guess I live in a bubble. I didn't realize until today how bad things are out there. I was talking to a young girl bank teller, has a small child, married, both work, can barely get by. she was telling me how they were not going to buy for their son as no extra money available. She also told me they are 10K in credit card debt. I was telling my wife how bad I feel for them but nothing I can really do. I did tell her tocheck into WIC for some help.
FUCK JOE BIDEN and his bidenomics:flipoff::flipoff::flipoff:
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Did you happen to notice her phone?
How about her shoes?

I have heard similar stories and when I started to pay attention, the person checked the latest iphone while we were talking, climbed into a car 10X the cost and an easy decade newer than what I drive, and a Starbucks cup was sitting on the counter.

I agree FUCK JOE BIDEN, but he never forced people to the level of consumerism they live at either.
 
45acp said:
Life is a tradeoff. I live in a region controlled by the Southern Baptist Mafia. Up until a few years ago, your couldn't buy alcohol on the left side of town because it was a dry county. Still can't buy beer on the right side of town on Sundays, because someone could possibly see your sins in public on their way to church. Even with pot legal for medical, you have to be dying of AIDS to get a script.

All of these people are die hard R's. And as agitated as I may get sometimes, this is 1000x better than life in the monster blue urban sprawl with the 2 hour 28 mile commute.
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You grew up around Tyler right???

I remember going into Coffee City for the liquor store right by the lake in condition where no one in the car should have been driving.

Good times, good times.

We were very lucky.
 
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