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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

Mikel said:
My theory is that as the price of necessities is still extremely high, the price of non-necessities is coming down, as people no longer have the money for these. So inflation is creating deflation elsewhere.

Was there a dumping of toys before the 2008 meltdown?
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You also have to remember what time of year it is. Almost every year about this time people needing money for Christmas start selling off things.
 
Mikel said:
My theory is that as the price of necessities is still extremely high, the price of non-necessities is coming down, as people no longer have the money for these. So inflation is creating deflation elsewhere.

Was there a dumping of toys before the 2008 meltdown?
Click to expand...


All the muscle cars and lifted trucks and broncos, k5s, fj40s were hot hot hot in 05-07 too, not as barret Jackson hot as they got last year, but got to the point where people either took a "Fuck, might as well sell it to a collector" or "never ever gonna sell it" but once the wife's tahoe was 89 days behind, guess which one got the for sale sign? Yup, the toys.


Necessities is a wide category. Housing is a necessity, but fueled by financing, both to a 1st time home buyer with bad credit, and a multi family housing developer with good credit and 20% down. Once the banks tighten up lending, the cards start to fall. Same thing with 70k f150s, and 38k minivans, if the drywall guy isn't getting 55 hours slamming up shitty tract houses for 1st time buyers with bad credit and $750 down, he's not buying a 70k f150, or a 17k f150


Sure they can keep fuel and food prices high for a while, but eventually people aren't buying steak and asparagus, they're pivoting to chicken and broccoli, so there's sales on steak and asparagus until buying backs up far enough that production is cut.

All that "necessity housing"

Well, couples stop divorcing and tough it out under one roof if they can't afford to split. Kids stay home instead of getting Apts, vacation homes get dumped and may become regular housing for a local

People get roommates, you're gonna see more rvs hooked up behind the in laws house, 5th wheels parked on the streets in neighborhoods with the slides out on the curb side, another "tiny home" craze

Then later in the cycle when things kinda flatten out for a bit, you're gonna see it coming on in a bunch of new cars 1st. All those people stuffed into a single family house are getting full paychecks week after week, and lending is easing up. They can't afford to move out, but "deserve something nice" so they start buying new cars, you'll start seeing 4 new sedans in front of a lower middle class single family home, again:laughing:
 
Mikel said:
My theory is that as the price of necessities is still extremely high, the price of non-necessities is coming down, as people no longer have the money for these. So inflation is creating deflation elsewhere.

Was there a dumping of toys before the 2008 meltdown?
Click to expand...

That would be the expectation, people will start to get pinched and have to sell off the toys. Most people don't want to take a loss and hang on to stuff too long as prices continue to decline.

I got lucky, sold my built Jeep in July of 2007 and 1969 BB Corvette August of 2007 at market peak before everything went sideways. I had three kids in college was my reason to sell, it just worked out on timing. Prices tumbled in the months following.
 
Speedy said:
That would be the expectation, people will start to get pinched and have to sell off the toys. Most people don't want to take a loss and hang on to stuff too long as prices continue to decline.

I got lucky, sold my built Jeep in July of 2007 and 1969 BB Corvette August of 2007 at market peak before everything went sideways. I had three kids in college was my reason to sell, it just worked out on timing. Prices tumbled in the months following.
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Sidebar, was it worth it?
 
Mikel said:
Was there a dumping of toys before the 2008 meltdown?
Click to expand...
Some before, not really an obvious trend. After, lots and lots. The '08 situation was a market deal and happened virtually overnight. Most people are not involved in the market in a manner that influence the toy market. Pre-08 dump, there were some alarms going off, but to be honest, the market wasnt as big in the news as it is now, it didnt have that much effect on peoples lives so they didnt pay attention. After over 10 years of healthy economy, we are right back to people not paying attention.
 
clodhopper said:
Some before, not really an obvious trend. After, lots and lots. The '08 situation was a market deal and happened virtually overnight. Most people are not involved in the market in a manner that influence the toy market. Pre-08 dump, there were some alarms going off, but to be honest, the market wasnt as big in the news as it is now, it didnt have that much effect on peoples lives so they didnt pay attention. After over 10 years of healthy economy, we are right back to people not paying attention.
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I started seeing big toys deing dumped in early 07, I worked for a yacht dealer at the time and our sales fell way off in early 07, our customers were discounting asking price and voluntary turning boats in to the bank by mid 07. Most wee trying to hang on to their real-estate that they were overextended in. By Jan 08, the floorplanning company had taken half our inventory, by March, they had it all
 
spareparts said:
I started seeing big toys deing dumped in early 07, I worked for a yacht dealer at the time and our sales fell way off in early 07, our customers were discounting asking price and voluntary turning boats in to the bank by mid 07. Most wee trying to hang on to their real-estate that they were overextended in. By Jan 08, the floorplanning company had taken half our inventory, by March, they had it all
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In 05-09 My ex wife's cousins owned some boat dealerships in Tucson and Phoenix, the family get togethers were insane, the grandpa said it was a competition to see who could spend the most money, new 100k Mercedes, H2s, kodiak crew cabs, listed super duty after super duty, new tits an the way around, 72" tvs, one of the cousins was an 18yo player, natural born salesman with a 300k house and 2 new cars on 22s, then come 09 it was all gone, all of it, they were all flat fucking broke

I heard thru the grapevine that the one in charge was taking brand new campers and running them thru the auction at a loss for the cash and trying to outrun the Floorplan:laughing:
 
spareparts said:
I started seeing big toys deing dumped in early 07, I worked for a yacht dealer at the time and our sales fell way off in early 07, our customers were discounting asking price and voluntary turning boats in to the bank by mid 07. Most wee trying to hang on to their real-estate that they were overextended in. By Jan 08, the floorplanning company had taken half our inventory, by March, they had it all
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I can see you feeling it sooner due to working in the toy sales arena. Also, may be different elsewhere in the nation. Around here, stuff was not hitting craigslist in a manner that suggested impending doom, but after stuff was for sale everywhere. I bought my 99 7.3 crewcab around that time for next to nuthin. People were dumping everything when gas was $5 a gallon. At that time, $5 a gallon was apocalytic and people were losing thier minds.
 
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clodhopper said:
I can see you feeling it sooner due to working in the toy sales arena. Also, may be different elsewhere in the nation. Around here, stuff was not hitting craigslist in a manner that suggested impending doom, but after stuff was for sale everywhere. I bought my 99 7.3 crewcab around that time for next to nuthin. People were dumping everything when gas was $5 a gallon. At that time, $5 a gallon was apocalytic and people were losing thier minds.
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Here in Connecticut I don't recall people dumping stuff in the time before the 2008 collapse, just a slow stagnation of the economy in the 18 months prior.

I have zero data, but it seems to me that prices are dropping on non-necessities quicker than back then. But I've been expecting the economy to collapse for years and it hasn't happened yet.
 
rockota said:
boy do I wish that was reflected at the pump... IMHO, Diesel is artificially high
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I’ve read somewhere that diesel being rigged and kept higher is the unofficial official way to pull money out of the economy without actually having to get anyone to agree to traditional avenues
MuntCuffin said:
They using the inflation markers that ignore staples like food and fuel, still?
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yes core inflation, they’re trying to push that bullshit further too, eliminating something else from it, housing/rent I believe?

Same thing with job numbers, let’s just ignore people getting a second or third job or people coming out of retirement because everything is insanely expensive.
 
BigBurt said:
Same thing with job numbers, let’s just ignore people getting a second or third job or people coming out of retirement because everything is insanely expensive.
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Unemployment is a big fucking lie, for a thousand little ratfuck reasons

"labor participation rate" is the one to watch

And a contrary trend I saw in 2009, older active, gainfully employed guys in their 60s, guys that hadn't hit the wall yet, guys that still "gonna do 5 more years, gonna buy a new truck in the spring, 5 year note, put a new roof on the house and new ac system before I retire...." Bam! Market Shtf and they're on the chopping block, they jump into the safety of early retirement grabbing whatever they can on their way out the door.
 
clodhopper said:
The '08 situation was a market deal and happened virtually overnight.
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I never really studied the how or why that much but I had a good friend in the dirt business with lots of employees and equipment. They prepped tracts and then the lots for home building. After the homes were done they went back to clean them up for the landscaping. He said he went from full blast to fully idle in less than a month.
 
Mikel said:
Call it what you want.
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I was trying to point out the hypocrisy of the current administration. Who doesn’t count food in inflation, and has said that slowing inflation means prices should come down….

Many people will not ever have a quality of life like 2019 ever again. But this is the plan.
 
Kyle said:
I was trying to point out the hypocrisy of the current administration. Who doesn’t count food in inflation, and has said that slowing inflation means prices should come down….

Many people will not ever have a quality of life like 2019 ever again. But this is the plan.
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That's why I refuse to use those inflation calculators. They use official inflation figures, which we all know how reliable they are.
 
Shrinkflation

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Went to Taco Bell and had a $20 bill in my hand...

Had to go dig for some dollar bills as two combo meals now costs $23 bucks :shaking:

I can almost go buy real food at that price.
 
MONSTERMUDDER said:
Went to Taco Bell and had a $20 bill in my hand...

Had to go dig for some dollar bills as two combo meals now costs $23 bucks :shaking:

I can almost go buy real food at that price.
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The "local" TB (35 minutes away) decided to get rid of the $5 Chalupa cravings box, replacing it with a $10 Chicken Chalupa box. It had chips n cheese. Luckily my 6 y/o wants only chips n cheese and cinnamon twists at TB, so I got that box and an order of twists for $12.00 even and we both had lunch yesterday.
 
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