United States Death statistics 2020 vs. 2018

[Pike2350]

You remind me of this guy... Mostly wrong, yet right on a couple of issues... but mostly a dipshit.

You keep saying I'm wrong but have not posted anything yourself that somehow contradicts what I've said. you have posted shit that you didn't even read or understand apparently, but I'm not sure how I'm wrong....but then again, like Rockbuggy84, you won't post anything to back up your claims. In fact, you quoted my response to him where he claimed 2020 is the least deadly year (minus 2019) since 2014. He provides no proof, no statistics, nothing. He threw out a claim and has no back up for it.

That seems to be the norm with this place these days.

As for the video...I'm not sure how he's a dipshit. He seems to be explaining it in a very normal manner and explaining, even for you idiots, the whole "CDC lid and said only 6% of deaths are from Covid" is incorrect. He even says it's stupid that Twitter shouldn't remove or ban these tweets....as it just adds to the misunderstanding, or in your case Conspiracy Theory.

I guess it doesn't fit your narrative either however....so of course it's completely BS and WRONG.....but again, you will not put anything up to back your position.

Everything you are saying seems accurate

Provisional death #s for 2020 2/1/2020-12/19/2020 = 2,835,533 *same CDC chart linked earlier in the thread https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

So, that chart covers 46 weeks. If we use averages to fill in the 6 missing weeks of a full year...
2,835,533 / 46 weeks = 61,642 deaths per week.
61,642 x 6 weeks = 369,852 deaths in 6 weeks
2,835,533 + 369,852 = 3,205,385 total projected deaths for 2020.

As already pointed out, the death numbers in that chart are provisional, but if we accept them as reasonably accurate... We end up with over 300K deaths over 2018 or 2019.

For this discussion, we don't need to consider whether deaths have been coded accurately or not. We are only talking total number of deaths. Based on the info at hand, it would appear we will have an abnormally high death count this year.

Be careful...don't agree with me or you will be labeled as bowing to some "religion" or that you are full of shit or a sheep, etc.

I've been saying the same thing you just listed, but they won't believe it. Arguing if all the deaths reported as Covid deaths is very different then arguing the false statement (that this thread is about) that 2020 will somehow be inline with 2018 for the number of deaths. Be careful though. No one here seems to believe in logic anymore.

 

[Deleted Member]

You keep saying I'm wrong but have not posted anything yourself that somehow contradicts what I've said. you have posted shit that you didn't even read or understand apparently, but I'm not sure how I'm wrong....but then again, like Rockbuggy84, you won't post anything to back up your claims. In fact, you quoted my response to him where he claimed 2020 is the least deadly year (minus 2019) since 2014. He provides no proof, no statistics, nothing. He threw out a claim and has no back up for it.

That seems to be the norm with this place these days.

As for the video...I'm not sure how he's a dipshit. He seems to be explaining it in a very normal manner and explaining, even for you idiots, the whole "CDC lid and said only 6% of deaths are from Covid" is incorrect. He even says it's stupid that Twitter shouldn't remove or ban these tweets....as it just adds to the misunderstanding, or in your case Conspiracy Theory.

I guess it doesn't fit your narrative either however....so of course it's completely BS and WRONG.....but again, you will not put anything up to back your position.




Be careful...don't agree with me or you will be labeled as bowing to some "religion" or that you are full of shit or a sheep, etc.

I've been saying the same thing you just listed, but they won't believe it. Arguing if all the deaths reported as Covid deaths is very different then arguing the false statement (that this thread is about) that 2020 will somehow be inline with 2018 for the number of deaths. Be careful though. No one here seems to believe in logic anymore.

Oh calm down skippy... I'm merely pointing out the absurdity of your argument, same as you are mine. It's one thing to point at the numbers, especially provisional ones, and proclaim we are in the midst of a crisis! Suicide, drug overdoses, etc...it's a LONG list of actual death related statistics. We all know this. We are questioning the validity of the entire COVID argument and justifying these idiotic, knee jerk reactions to an illness that is literally NO worse than any past years "pandemics" (1952, 1957, 1969 and so on...).

Let's say the provisional numbers pan out and we indeed had 300,000 more deaths this year than the past few years. Was this entire reaction of the past several months worth it? And what is going on with the data on Influenza A/B this year? It's an anomaly everyone seems happy to avoid discussing.

I don't care if you agree with me or not. I'm not so petty... To stick to your guns on a numbers game that no one can prove yet? Go for it... I am happy to respond with the same type rhetoric.

 

[Rockbuggy84]

We’ve seen an increase in overall additional deaths for countless years in a row, this is nothing new or abnormal because people don’t take care of themselves. Over the past 6, we’ve seen Apx 1.1-1.3% increase on average.

The population effects the overall number, that’s why percentages are the only accurate measure to see if there is truly an abnormally high death rate this year,

Everyone is capable of doing the math for themselves and seeing where we sit.

 

[Pike2350]

Oh calm down skippy... I'm merely pointing out the absurdity of your argument, same as you are mine. It's one thing to point at the numbers, especially provisional ones, and proclaim we are in the midst of a crisis! Suicide, drug overdoses, etc...it's a LONG list of actual death related statistics. We all know this. We are questioning the validity of the entire COVID argument and justifying these idiotic, knee jerk reactions to an illness that is literally NO worse than any past years "pandemics" (1952, 1957, 1969 and so on...).

Let's say the provisional numbers pan out and we indeed had 300,000 more deaths this year than the past few years. Was this entire reaction of the past several months worth it? And what is going on with the data on Influenza A/B this year? It's an anomaly everyone seems happy to avoid discussing.

I don't care if you agree with me or not. I'm not so petty... To stick to your guns on a numbers game that no one can prove yet? Go for it... I am happy to respond with the same type rhetoric.

Fair enough. I agree, that the reaction is not justified. I do feel that some of it is fine (mask mandates in public) beyond that, I think it should be up to the businesses to handle. People should be able to make their own decisions regarding where to go and who to hang out with....but I see no problem with mask mandates....but telling businesses they have to shut down is BS.

I'm only arguing the numbers (that while provisional, aren't going to decrease most likely...but will likely increase) because this thread is about the death total and how 2020 is inline with previous years. I mean, the whole topic of the thread is about the the total deaths...and yes, all we have is provisional numbers.

So i'm fine agreeing on the overreaction to it, I'm fine with the shutdowns causing more harm then good....these are not the points I argued about.

If the numbers pan out, we will see over a 10% increase in deaths this year....the % that Rockbuggy is looking for.

That's why I get so annoyed and pissy with both sides of these arguments (almost any argument that deals with politics today) they are too focused on THEIR side. They refuse to see numbers or statistics. To read what is actually being said in an article (regardless of where it came from) The critical thinking in this country is gone. i've been told many times before that I have to stop arguing with illogical people with logic...but unfortunately that's how I am.

Anyway....enjoy the 🍺for agreeing on somethings. Finding common ground and all.

 

[Deleted Member]

Anyway....enjoy the 🍺for agreeing on somethings. Finding common ground and all.

back at ya!

 

[Grnd93]

Ok, 2020 is over. What are the stats?

 

[DozerDan82]

Ok, 2020 is over. What are the stats?

They are still working them over to make them what they want them to reflect...

 

[JolietJames]

Fair enough. I agree, that the reaction is not justified. I do feel that some of it is fine (mask mandates in public) beyond that, I think it should be up to the businesses to handle. People should be able to make their own decisions regarding where to go and who to hang out with....but I see no problem with mask mandates....but telling businesses they have to shut down is BS.
Finding common ground and all.

Why are you OK with mask mandates when all the studies show that at most, they slow the spread by 1%. which I imagine is within the margin of error?
I see masks as modern day dunce caps when worn outside of the areas mandated. JMHO

 

[Provience]

Where are you getting the numbers to claim its the lowest since 2014? You claim it but have no facts, no links, nothing. You say my source claims the 1.1-1.3% increase in deaths. While I haven't seen that, I don't doubt it.

I have showed where the CDC is showing 2020 is at around 2.8m deaths from 2/1- 12/12...this is not including January so 1 month missing.

2019 had 2.855M
2018 had 2.839M
2017 had 2.813M
2016 had 2.744M
2015 had 2.713M

So again it fits the narrative of slightly over 1% growth year over year....yet 2020 is at 2.8M with only 46 of 52 weeks reported. I don't know how this is hard to understand for you. These figures were posted on page 7 with the links to the CDC .pdf (or website on the case of 2019). At this rate and if we estimate for the "missing" 6 weeks...well I went over all of that on page 7. No need to regurgitate it here.

So again I am curious how 2020 is the lowest deaths next to 2019 since 2014 when 2019 was higher then 2016-2018.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics (cdc.gov)

CDC currently has 2020 at:

2,902,664 provisional all source death count


this is subject to change over the next several years, and will likely go up a bit over the next week, after the next week it is much less likely to change

2019=2.855M plus 1% growth would be 2.883M.

or about 19,664 deaths higher in 2020 than "expected" with a 1% growth


ready for this?

Remember a while back when the CDC said "COVID deaths with no additional co-morbidity is about 6% of the total reported deaths"....well, 6% of 300,000 deaths is 18,000

pretty fucking close to the 19k deaths in excess of our expected growth so yeah, covid is still responsible for about 6% of the reported death currently assigned to covid

 

[Rockbuggy84]

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics (cdc.gov)

CDC currently has 2020 at:

2,902,664 provisional all source death count


this is subject to change over the next several years, and will likely go up a bit over the next week, after the next week it is much less likely to change

2019=2.855M plus 1% growth would be 2.883M.

or about 19,664 deaths higher in 2020 than "expected" with a 1% growth


ready for this?

Remember a while back when the CDC said "COVID deaths with no additional co-morbidity is about 6% of the total reported deaths"....well, 6% of 350,000 deaths is 21,000

pretty fucking close to the 19k deaths in excess of our expected growth so yeah, covid is still responsible for about 6% of the reported death currently assigned to covid

Don’t you dare bringing factual data into this religion.

 

[Provience]

Don’t you dare bringing factual data into this religion.

it will be at least 1 more year before we can talk about the mix related to the growth and excess though.

did car accidents go down? did ocean drownings go down? did cancer really get cured?

those sorts of things

 

[Deleted Member]

it will be at least 1 more year before we can talk about the mix related to the growth and excess though.

did car accidents go down? did ocean drownings go down? did cancer really get cured?

those sorts of things

Suicides and overdoses skyrocketed. As well as many "unrelated" COVID deaths.

This whole fawking thing has been a sham, and these clowns are hanging their collective hats on a, while real, completely over inflated illness. I think heads should absolutely roll over this shit.

 

[Pike2350]

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics (cdc.gov)

CDC currently has 2020 at:

2,902,664 provisional all source death count


this is subject to change over the next several years, and will likely go up a bit over the next week, after the next week it is much less likely to change

2019=2.855M plus 1% growth would be 2.883M.

or about 19,664 deaths higher in 2020 than "expected" with a 1% growth


ready for this?

Remember a while back when the CDC said "COVID deaths with no additional co-morbidity is about 6% of the total reported deaths"....well, 6% of 300,000 deaths is 18,000

pretty fucking close to the 19k deaths in excess of our expected growth so yeah, covid is still responsible for about 6% of the reported death currently assigned to covid

🤦‍♂️

I have pointed out numerous times that right on the top of that table on the CDC's own website it states that the data is ONLY from 2/1/20 on. JANUARY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE NUMBER YOU PROVIDED.

Not to mention that it is only up through 12/26/20...and is usually only through Wed. Of that week since, when you look at the last week listed the deaths are only around half the deaths even in normal years.

Given that, a normal year has around 240-250k deaths per month. So you will need to add at least another 250k deaths to your figure of 2,902,664....making it around 3,152,000+ for 2020.

As I've pointed out too many people can't read and interpret data. It fit your narrative at a first glance and you ran with it....but you just look like a fool now.

 

[Provience]

🤦‍♂️

I have pointed out numerous times that right on the top of that table on the CDC's own website it states that the data is ONLY from 2/1/20 on. JANUARY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE NUMBER YOU PROVIDED.

filedata/fetch?id=256335&d=1609709452

Not to mention that it is only up through 12/26/20...and is usually only through Wed. Of that week since, when you look at the last week listed the deaths are only around half the deaths even in normal years.

Given that, a normal year has around 240-250k deaths per month. So you will need to add at least another 250k deaths to your figure of 2,902,664....making it around 3,152,000+ for 2020.

As I've pointed out too many people can't read and interpret data. It fit your narrative at a first glance and you ran with it....but you just look like a fool now.

doesn't make me look like a fool, i said these are early numbers and subject to change

it's why i've held out that we'll need at least a year and probably 2 before we can make real claims on the stuff


edit: "at first glance" as for that, well i've been referencing this chart for probably 7 or 8 months now at this point, i'm well aware it doesn't include january and that it has a 2 week lag

 

[Provience]

Suicides and overdoses skyrocketed. As well as many "unrelated" COVID deaths.

This whole fawking thing has been a sham, and these clowns are hanging their collective hats on a, while real, completely over inflated illness. I think heads should absolutely roll over this shit.

and suicides/drugs were already on a several year upshot, so how much of that skyrocket was expected vs how much wasn't. I think that "in the wash" we'll be able to say that more people died from covid alone than from the unanticipate increase in suicides, but i do agree that we will see a big rise in those areas.

 

[Provience]

here is a fun example of the destruction in confidence in the numbers and the system and all the associated bullshit

Coronavirus spike overwhelms California hospital workers - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

July 13th article:

“We’re getting to the point where we’re just overwhelmed — emotionally, physically exhausted. We don’t have enough workers for all these patients; we’re working extra shifts,” said Mary Lynn Briggs, an intensive care unit nurse at Mercy Hospital in Bakersfield. “I’m expecting things to go from bad to worse over at least the next couple of weeks.”

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC (91-divoc.com)

Mid july, CA average 9,000 new cases daily. This was their "bad to worse!" and "we are overwhelmed!" and "we cannot keep this up!" level.

December say a period with an average of 44,000 new cases daily.

and yet, we still haven't heard a single story about a hospital collapse how can one level be "OMG! we are overwhelemed!!" and then nearly 5x that level is still "well, okay, we could handle that, but really we are Nearly Overwhelmed!"

Southern California’s Hospitals Are Overwhelmed, and It May Get Worse - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

dec 25

Nearly every hospital has surged past its capacity, putting new beds in any space it can find, and preparing for the possibility it will have to ration care — essentially making wrenchingly difficult decisions about who dies and who lives.

they talk about how they have set up a tent for a waiting area but don't worry, the CA new case rate has dropped since then.

 

[JolietJames]

Last week AZ news was screaming about the fact that 59% of our ICU beds were filled with Covid patients.
A local radio station mentioned a while back that last year 60% of the beds were filled with influenza patients, yet no faggotry in reporting.

 

[mongosd2]

With a 30% turnover rate...or something like that...

 

[Pike2350]

I just thought I'd bring this up since the CDC updated their page to now reflect January (well Jan 4, 2020 - Jan 2, 2021)

It now shows total death at 3,171,913. That is roughly 317k more deaths in 2020 than in 2019 and around 334k death over 2018.

While I don't believe all the extra deaths are directly from Covid, especially when you consider the way healthcare has had to handle many things this year, the increase in suicide and all that....I do believe that those that can be contributed to Covid as the main reason (sped up the underlying conditions to die much sooner, etc) Is probably around 250-300k deaths.

I do think the number will go up some more....once more deaths are reported for the end of December...but it gives us a pretty good idea of where we are.....and 11% increase.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

 

[Rockbuggy84]

Population growth. But let’s go ahead and not bring that up because it destroys the narrative. Let’s just sit here and act like we didn’t add 3 million people to our population, we’ll just say BIG NUMBERS and leave out all relevant content

We’ll also leave out that the overall percentage of deaths in the US has steadily increased by 1-1.3% for at least 16 years.

It’s all about the narrative.

 

[Pike2350]

Population growth. But let’s go ahead and not bring that up because it destroys the narrative. Let’s just sit here and act like we didn’t add 3 million people to our population, we’ll just say BIG NUMBERS and leave out all relevant content

We’ll also leave out that the overall percentage of deaths in the US has steadily increased by 1-1.3% for at least 16 years.

It’s all about the narrative.

Holy shit you have to be kidding me....population growth is now your excuse or your missing "relevant content" wow. You are a new kind of dense and blinded by your own narrative.

the 1-2% increase in deaths each year takes into account population growth...or else we'd eventually die out at a death rate that grows each year.

I also understand that death rate grows each year...but I guess your idea of an 11.1% growth in the death rate is somehow explained by you 1-2% increase in death rate AND apparently somehow...what a magical explosion of population by at least 10%?


Just acknowledge that there was a much higher death rate in 2020 due to Covid. Fuck some of you people are dense.

 

[TatonkaII]

Population growth.
It’s all about the narrative.

Uh what?

 

[Deleted Member]

Holy shit you have to be kidding me....population growth is now your excuse or your missing "relevant content" wow. You are a new kind of dense and blinded by your own narrative.

the 1-2% increase in deaths each year takes into account population growth...or else we'd eventually die out at a death rate that grows each year.

I also understand that death rate grows each year...but I guess your idea of an 11.1% growth in the death rate is somehow explained by you 1-2% increase in death rate AND apparently somehow...what a magical explosion of population by at least 10%?


Just acknowledge that there was a much higher death rate in 2020 due to Covid. Fuck some of you people are dense.

I'll admit there were probably more deaths due to COVID. I think the data will support that claim.

Will you admit it hasn't turned out to be the monster it was politicized to be now? During the years of ANY pandemic the death toll will always rise. This has proven to be as bad as a really bad flu year by most accounts. and far less than some. Nursing homes, and I think the data will support this claim, took a seriously hard hit... Especially in New York state.

Can we agree on this? And then we can discuss the validity of the actions taken to destroy our economy, and essentially our entire way of life... and for what? An illness with a 99.8% survival rate. Come on man.

If the statistics above are correct, and 317K people did in fact die from COVID (I have my doubts about that figure, btw), then that is less than .1%>.001 of the United States population. Was it worth derailing everything?

 

['84 Bronco II]

Well hey, maybe Social Security will become solvent again! Way to go Covid!

 

[2big bronco]

I'll admit there were probably more deaths due to COVID. I think the data will support that claim.

Will you admit it hasn't turned out to be the monster it was politicized to be now? During the years of ANY pandemic the death toll will always rise. This has proven to be as bad as a really bad flu year by most accounts. and far less than some. Nursing homes, and I think the data will support this claim, took a seriously hard hit... Especially in New York state.

Can we agree on this? And then we can discuss the validity of the actions taken to destroy our economy, and essentially our entire way of life... and for what? An illness with a 99.8% survival rate. Come on man.

Nope, its trumps fault for being a covid denier. Hillary would have handled it better and now biden has to pick up the pieces and put this country back together

 

[mongosd2]

yes, there was an iincrease in the death count due to the virus...but also you have a better than 99% chance of not having an issue when you do contract this, which the majority of the population will. Those dying directly from the virus is not out of line with typical flu years, but when there's no proof of even having the contracted the virus and that death is added to the total, is really fucked up. And yes, they do include "presumed Covid cases" in the total.

 

[Rockbuggy84]

Holy shit you have to be kidding me....population growth is now your excuse or your missing "relevant content" wow. You are a new kind of dense and blinded by your own narrative.

the 1-2% increase in deaths each year takes into account population growth...or else we'd eventually die out at a death rate that grows each year.

I also understand that death rate grows each year...but I guess your idea of an 11.1% growth in the death rate is somehow explained by you 1-2% increase in death rate AND apparently somehow...what a magical explosion of population by at least 10%?


Just acknowledge that there was a much higher death rate in 2020 due to Covid. Fuck some of you people are dense.

Simple math contradicts everything you’re saying.

You’re the dense one and sadly don’t even realize it.

The 1-1.3% is not accounting for population growth. It is accounting for percentages of excess death. Go do some research. I’m embarrassed that you really think that’s how percentages work.

The actual number of excess deaths in the US is right on par with the past 10 years.

Yes people died of covid, but the actual number is irrelevant.

You’re mathematically and statistically wrong.

Simple solution.
Go and factor the overall death percentages for the past ten years. Post those percentages here, in order. Let’s see what the percentage trend says.

 

[Deleted Member]

Nope, its trumps fault for being a covid denier. Hillary would have handled it better and now biden has to pick up the pieces and put this country back together

That's just it... the way it was spun is that if we didn't shut down and hide in fear of our lives, there would be piles of bodies in the streets and big bonfires of the dead in the town square... the entirety of this fairy tale was manufactured out of fear and control to squelch the masses into line, lest they be put to death by covid!

Personally, I think heads should be plopping into buckets over this.

 

[Pike2350]

I'll admit there were probably more deaths due to COVID. I think the data will support that claim.

Will you admit it hasn't turned out to be the monster it was politicized to be now? During the years of ANY pandemic the death toll will always rise. This has proven to be as bad as a really bad flu year by most accounts. and far less than some. Nursing homes, and I think the data will support this claim, took a seriously hard hit... Especially in New York state.

Can we agree on this? And then we can discuss the validity of the actions taken to destroy our economy, and essentially our entire way of life... and for what? An illness with a 99.8% survival rate. Come on man.

If the statistics above are correct, and 317K people did in fact die from COVID (I have my doubts about that figure, btw), then that is less than .1%>.001 of the United States population. Was it worth derailing everything?

I have said that the reaction has been overblown a fair bit. The early predictions that this would be a major killer turned out to be untrue....but that is not surprising considering we really didn't know much about it yet...and if,watching what was
happening was any indication it looked like it could be.

Saying it is as bad as a really bad flu is a bit disingenuous. A really bad flu year is upwards of 60k deaths. I am sure there years it may have approached 80-100k..but this is still 3x worse....so I don't think it's a good comparison.

As for the damage. No it was not warranted. Some mandates and protocols I think are fine. When you have a much more easily transmitted virus, some precautions are needed. Until they figured out more and more it's hard to know where to draw the line. To me, mask mandates in public enclosed buildings are fine....even requiring businesses to enforce them (or they can chose to close temporarily) beyond that...forcing businesses to shut completely was wrong...period.

I feel I am fair and can acknowledge that the reaction was overblown. After about May things should've gone back to normal with the mask mandates and such. I feel the push back was a bit ridiculous on some things as well.

So while it is a tough balancing act. People can say to protect the vulnerable, or make them stay in...but how long do they have to stay? My father has been in lock down at his assisted living facility since March. We are not allowed to see him. How long does he have to be isolated? Between him and my mom at 86 and almost 83 they are very vulnerable..but many people's solution is for them to continue to stay inside and not go out. I have to risk going to see my mom. I take precautions, and do what I can....but with the asymptomatic possibility it could very well be a case of Russian Roulette visiting her. My dad, well tank heavens for Alexa Show so we can at least see and talk via video chat...but not getting to shake his hand or hug him for almost a year is tough. This whole virus has seriously made end of their lives pretty miserable....so while I don't agree with the 100% shutdowns I do feel some health and safety mandates are very warranted.

the other argument is How many would be dead if they didn't shut things down? We will never know.

 

[mongosd2]

you're missing the point that the numbers are cooked...