United States Death statistics 2020 vs. 2018

[Rockbuggy84]

US overall death rate.

2020 8.8%
2019 8.7%
2018 8.6%
2017 8.5%
2016 8.4%
2015 8.2%
2014 8.1%

 

[Deleted Member]

I have said that the reaction has been overblown a fair bit. The early predictions that this would be a major killer turned out to be untrue....but that is not surprising considering we really didn't know much about it yet...and if,watching what was
happening was any indication it looked like it could be.

Saying it is as bad as a really bad flu is a bit disingenuous. A really bad flu year is upwards of 60k deaths. I am sure there years it may have approached 80-100k..but this is still 3x worse....so I don't think it's a good comparison.

As for the damage. No it was not warranted. Some mandates and protocols I think are fine. When you have a much more easily transmitted virus, some precautions are needed. Until they figured out more and more it's hard to know where to draw the line. To me, mask mandates in public enclosed buildings are fine....even requiring businesses to enforce them (or they can chose to close temporarily) beyond that...forcing businesses to shut completely was wrong...period.

I feel I am fair and can acknowledge that the reaction was overblown. After about May things should've gone back to normal with the mask mandates and such. I feel the push back was a bit ridiculous on some things as well.

So while it is a tough balancing act. People can say to protect the vulnerable, or make them stay in...but how long do they have to stay? My father has been in lock down at his assisted living facility since March. We are not allowed to see him. How long does he have to be isolated? Between him and my mom at 86 and almost 83 they are very vulnerable..but many people's solution is for them to continue to stay inside and not go out. I have to risk going to see my mom. I take precautions, and do what I can....but with the asymptomatic possibility it could very well be a case of Russian Roulette visiting her. My dad, well tank heavens for Alexa Show so we can at least see and talk via video chat...but not getting to shake his hand or hug him for almost a year is tough. This whole virus has seriously made end of their lives pretty miserable....so while I don't agree with the 100% shutdowns I do feel some health and safety mandates are very warranted.

I am talking Pandemic years... look at 1957 Chinese Flu pandemic deaths. About 120,000 deaths in the US alone, with a population of 177M. EXACT same scenario. Almost the exact same result. Shut downs and panic? Nope.

Lets look at 1968 and 1969. Another Chinese Flu Pandemic. 1968-1969 saw 180K deaths in US, for that flu and had a Population of right around 200M people.

We have had this exact scenario happen just under a half a dozen times and never before did we respond with this bs. Don't preach to me about being disingenuous. I actually read and know my history.

And news flash~ Old people (like your parents and mine) are vulnerable to death! Weird, hah? People. Die. Every. Day. About 7700 per day to be precise.

 

[Pike2350]

Simple math contradicts everything you’re saying.

You’re the dense one and sadly don’t even realize it.

The 1-1.3% is not accounting for population growth. It is accounting for percentages of excess death. Go do some research. I’m embarrassed that you really think that’s how percentages work.

The actual number of excess deaths in the US is right on par with the past 10 years.

Yes people died of covid, but the actual number is irrelevant.

You’re mathematically and statistically wrong.

Simple solution.
Go and factor the overall death percentages for the past ten years. Post those percentages here, in order. Let’s see what the percentage trend says.

You are dumb.

With what you are saying the US will die out. You can't have an increase in the death rate and not take i to account the population growth....a growing negative of a "fixed" number would eventually get to 0...in other words we'd be dying off.

In general the US population has been living longer over the past 100 years(until just recently). With extended lifespan comes a decrease in death rate as a %. Now if you add to the population, you will see a corresponding % of deaths due to the "new" population..this is what drives the increase of deaths. The 1-2% increase in the number of deaths is attributed to this.

As for you other chart that show the death rate of 8.8% for 2020....yeah I am not sure how you got that numbe since it isn't available yet since all deaths from 2020 aren't ywt finalized being reported....but according to calculations of the CDC deaths of 3,171,913 for 2020 and a 2020 population of 332,000,000. We are actually looking at around a 9.5% death rate.

Now let me help you out before you try and claim "see that is the 1-1.3% increase I was talking about" the 1-2% is in the NUMBER OF DEATHS each year. As your little list shows(not sure how factual any of the previous death rates are) it shows only close to a .1% increase in the DEATH RATE each year.

1-2% of 2.855million is 29-58k more deaths in 2020 over 2019. That means we would've been looking at around say 2.9m deaths. 2.9m of 332m is close to the 8.7% death rate.

Did I dumb it down enough for you?

 

[Deleted Member]

you're missing the point that the numbers are cooked...

I don't doubt theres been some exaggeration in the numbers... specifically how they attribute to the tally with various underlying co-morbidities and a huge number of "other" factors.

Ridiculous things like auto vehicle deaths, falls and etc... I am not doubting that COVID has taken a large number of lives on it's own... but doubt we will ever see anything but the inflated numbers on the charts to over-hype the "pandemic". I think we won't ever know for certain what the actual numbers are because of the hype.

 

[Rockbuggy84]

You are dumb.

With what you are saying the US will die out. You can't have an increase in the death rate and not take i to account the population growth....a growing negative of a "fixed" number would eventually get to 0...in other words we'd be dying off.

In general the US population has been living longer over the past 100 years(until just recently). With extended lifespan comes a decrease in death rate as a %. Now if you add to the population, you will see a corresponding % of deaths due to the "new" population..this is what drives the increase of deaths. The 1-2% increase in the number of deaths is attributed to this.

As for you other chart that show the death rate of 8.8% for 2020....yeah I am not sure how you got that numbe since it isn't available yet since all deaths from 2020 aren't ywt finalized being reported....but according to calculations of the CDC deaths of 3,171,913 for 2020 and a 2020 population of 332,000,000. We are actually looking at around a 9.5% death rate.

Now let me help you out before you try and claim "see that is the 1-1.3% increase I was talking about" the 1-2% is in the NUMBER OF DEATHS each year. As your little list shows(not sure how factual any of the previous death rates are) it shows only close to a .1% increase in the DEATH RATE each year.

1-2% of 2.855million is 29-58k more deaths in 2020 over 2019. That means we would've been looking at around say 2.9m deaths. 2.9m of 332m is close to the 8.7% death rate.

Did I dumb it down enough for you?

I’m truly embarrassed for you. You literally have zero clue what you’re talking about and have no clue how percentages work.

The 1-1.3% is excess percentage of deaths. You cannot use fixed death numbers when population is constantly changing. That’s why we use percentages. You’re in way over your head.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...tes/death-rate

 

[jpmassey]

I am talking Pandemic years... look at 1957 Chinese Flu pandemic deaths. About 120,000 deaths in the US alone, with a population of 177M. EXACT same scenario. Almost the exact same result. Shut downs and panic? Nope.

Lets look at 1968 and 1969. Another Chinese Flu Pandemic. 1968-1969 saw 180K deaths in US, for that flu and had a Population of right around 200M people.

We have had this exact scenario happen just under a half a dozen times and never before did we respond with this bs. Don't preach to me about being disingenuous. I actually read and know my history.

And news flash~ Old people (like your parents and mine) are vulnerable to death! Weird, hah? People. Die. Every. Day. About 7700 per day to be precise.

I've been telling this to everyone I know since march. It's political, and guess what, they achieved their goal. Now it will fade away, and the dems have another 3 house majority.

 

[Deleted Member]

I've been telling this to everyone I know since march. It's political, and guess what, they achieved their goal. Now it will fade away, and the dems have another 3 house majority.

Anybody who looks at history understands this... congrats man! You are in the 1%.

Nobody bothers to study history anymore, and it's a fawked thing. If we did, this wouldn't have gone down this way.

 

[Pike2350]

I am talking Pandemic years... look at 1957 Chinese Flu pandemic deaths. About 120,000 deaths in the US alone, with a population of 177M. EXACT same scenario. Almost the exact same result. Shut downs and panic? Nope.

Lets look at 1968 and 1969. Another Chinese Flu Pandemic. 1968-1969 saw 180K deaths in US, for that flu and had a Population of right around 200M people.

We have had this exact scenario happen just under a half a dozen times and never before did we respond with this bs. Don't preach to me about being disingenuous. I actually read and know my history.

And news flash~ Old people (like your parents and mine) are vulnerable to death! Weird, hah? People. Die. Every. Day. About 7700 per day to be precise.

Fair enough on the other pandemics. The 1957 pandemic was about 33% less deaths in relation the the population. While the numbers I heard for the 1968 outbreak was less then what you are saying at around the same 100-125k deaths.....so even less deaths in relation to the general population. (CDC site is saying around 100k) As I said, the panic was overblown after about May. Up until then we were seeing much higher mortality rates (10%+) and I can understand the panic and shut downs. After May...no I don't agree with the shutdowns.

I know my parents are more vulnerable...but throw in a new, much more contagious threat for them and it makes it hard to just "Fuck you, you're old, stay inside"

 

[Deleted Member]

Fair enough on the other pandemics. The 1957 pandemic was about 33% less deaths in relation the the population. While the numbers I heard for the 1968 outbreak was less then what you are saying at around the same 100-125k deaths.....so even less deaths in relation to the general population. (CDC site is saying around 100k) As I said, the panic was overblown after about May. Up until then we were seeing much higher mortality rates (10%+) and I can understand the panic and shut downs. After May...no I don't agree with the shutdowns.

I know my parents are more vulnerable...but throw in a new, much more contagious threat for them and it makes it hard to just "Fuck you, you're old, stay inside"

33% less deaths in the 57 Pandemic? Not sure what kind of common core shit your using, but by comparison it's almost IDENTICAL to todays figures for this scenario.
Keep chugging that fear potion brother... ignore history and live by the mandates. :rolleyes:

I don't want to argue, I have to go soon. We can just leave it with ~ You are wrong.

 

[Pike2350]

I’m truly embarrassed for you. You literally have zero clue what you’re talking about and have no clue how percentages work.

The 1-1.3% is excess percentage of deaths. You cannot used fixed death numbers when population is constantly changing. That’s why we use percentages. You’re in way over your head.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...tes/death-rate

I have now idea how %'s work i simply explained it to you already.....but I will point it to you in your way.

1.3% increase of 8.7% death rate(2019 rate you list) is .11% in overall death rate. SO if your numbers are correct we WOULD'VE seen the 8.8(8.81% to be more precise) death rate you list.....now remember this is per 1000 people.

Now let's take your number and back i to the numbers.

2020 had a US population of approx. 332million people. IF we had a death rate of 8.81%(per 1000 people) we would've seen 2,9484,920 deaths in 2020. Weird that the total reported deaths to the CDC from all states thus far equal 3,171,913 deaths. Based on your logic of population growth for 3,171,913 deaths to be 8.81% (per 1000 people) would be 35 million more people....since the population would've had to be 357,157,718 people.

So tell me again HOW 2020 only had an increase of 1-1.3% in the death rate?

Is that understanding your %'s well enough? Is the US at a population of 357m yet? Didn't think so.

 

[michael.gonzalez]

Arguing with Flecker and RockBuggy is like arguing with chimpanzees that just discovered they have ten toes and ten fingers.

10 and 10 make 20! I know Maths!

 

[Pike2350]

33% less deaths in the 57 Pandemic? Not sure what kind of common core shit your using, but by comparison it's almost IDENTICAL to todays figures for this scenario.
Keep chugging that fear potion brother... ignore history and live by the mandates. :rolleyes:

I don't want to argue, I have to go soon. We can just leave it with ~ You are wrong.

The 1957 pandemic with 120,000 deaths out 177 million is roughly .068% of the population.

2020 deaths of say 300k(obviously still up for debate) of 332 million is roughly .09% i guess its closer to 25% less

I was doing rough math

 

[Deleted Member]

Arguing with Flecker and RockBuggy is like arguing with chimpanzees that just discovered they have ten toes and ten fingers.

10 and 10 make 20! I know Maths!

Fawk around and find out little tyke... take the day and think about "trolling".

See ya tomorrow with an attitude change honeybunch.

 

[Rockbuggy84]

I have now idea how %'s work i simply explained it to you already.....but I will point it to you in your way.

1.3% increase of 8.7% death rate(2019 rate you list) is .11% in overall death rate. SO if your numbers are correct we WOULD'VE seen the 8.8(8.81% to be more precise) death rate you list.....now remember this is per 1000 people.

Now let's take your number and back i to the numbers.

2020 had a US population of approx. 332million people. IF we had a death rate of 8.81%(per 1000 people) we would've seen 2,9484,920 deaths in 2020. Weird that the total reported deaths to the CDC from all states thus far equal 3,171,913 deaths. Based on your logic of population growth for 3,171,913 deaths would be 8.81% (per 1000 people) would be 35 million more people....since the population would've had to be 357,157,718 people.

So tell me again HOW 2020 only had an increase of 1-1.3% in the death rate?

Is that understanding your %'s well enough? Is the US at a population of 357m yet? Didn't think so.

The excess percentages is in overall excess deaths. The link I posted spells it out for you.

1-1-3% increase in excess death is absolutely normal and after all numbers are in, we will be right in that percentage.

You keep doing your math wrong and telling me I’m wrong, yet I have statistical data posted to back up my math and you don’t. You keep adding percentages to the wrong thing to try and make yourself right.

It doesn’t work that way.

The average of excess deaths in the us has been +1-1.3% for the past 16 years. No matter how you spin the numbers, I’m correct.

You’re doing exactly what the msm does. Ignoring facts because it goes against the narrative and throwing a bunch of jumbled numbers out to try and make your math work.

Simple solution.
Post population vs death rate over the past 10 years. You’ll easily be able to prove that 2020 is way above 1.3% excess growth. Right?

 

[Pike2350]

The excess percentages is in overall excess deaths. The link I posted spells it out for you.

1-1-3% increase in excess death is absolutely normal and after all numbers are in, we will be right in that percentage.

You keep doing your math wrong and telling me I’m wrong, yet I have statistical data posted to back up my math and you don’t. You keep adding percentages to the wrong thing to try and make yourself right.

It doesn’t work that way.

The average of excess deaths in the us has been +1-1.3% for the past 16 years. No matter how you spin the numbers, I’m correct.

You’re doing exactly what the msm does. Ignoring facts because it goes against the narrative and throwing a bunch of jumbled numbers out to try and make your math work.

Simple solution.
Post population vs death rate over the past 10 years. You’ll easily be able to prove that 2020 is way above 1.3% excess growth. Right?

Do you even realize that YOUR STATISTICAL data for 2020 is just a projection? I'm not sure how a projection is statistical data. Also, how is a website that offers projections up through 2100 somehow statistical?

The site you post as statistical even states at the header that 2020 and later are projections. So even the site you claim for statistical proof says it is a projection.

i'm not arguing that up through 2019 we have seen 1-1.3% growth in death rate....but saying that we DID have that in 2020 with you providing no data to back it up other then a site that is even stating it's projections is just idiotic.

you are doing what all the right wing people that want to ignore things are doing. You will take the data given and try to twist it in a way to make it not appear to what it actually is. you are now only focusing on the excessive death rate....but not on the totals and getting the figures you are trying to "prove"

I don't have to go back 10 years. Just go from 2019-2020. using the Census and CDC numbers.


2019 population 328 million approx. Deaths 2,855,000 approx. - Death rate approx. .0087% (8.7% per 1000 people)
2020 population 332 million approx. Deaths 3,171,913 approx. Death rate approx. .00955% (9.5% per 1000 people)

Based on your site, and assuming they have actual historical data for 2018 prior, they are showing death rates growing, but still only death rates in the 8.4-8.8% range.....I also want to point out that your site is already telling us what the death rate and growth is for 2021. Go to Vegas with those numbers since the site is so accurate you want to base your whole argument on it.



So again, if you want to argue something about "excessive deaths" and he % you claim, how about you provide anything beyond the projected figure from your statistical site (statistical maybe for years prior to 2020)

 

[Provience]

I just thought I'd bring this up since the CDC updated their page to now reflect January (well Jan 4, 2020 - Jan 2, 2021)

It now shows total death at 3,171,913. That is roughly 317k more deaths in 2020 than in 2019 and around 334k death over 2018.

While I don't believe all the extra deaths are directly from Covid, especially when you consider the way healthcare has had to handle many things this year, the increase in suicide and all that....I do believe that those that can be contributed to Covid as the main reason (sped up the underlying conditions to die much sooner, etc) Is probably around 250-300k deaths.

I do think the number will go up some more....once more deaths are reported for the end of December...but it gives us a pretty good idea of where we are.....and 11% increase.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

i'm glad they finally made the update, it is absurd that it took them this long to get there.


edit: it will be a year at least before we can get a halfway honest accounting

 

[Mattafact]

Fawk around and find out little tyke... take the day and think about "trolling".

See ya tomorrow with an attitude change honeybunch.

 

[Rockbuggy84]

Do you even realize that YOUR STATISTICAL data for 2020 is just a projection? I'm not sure how a projection is statistical data. Also, how is a website that offers projections up through 2100 somehow statistical?

The site you post as statistical even states at the header that 2020 and later are projections. So even the site you claim for statistical proof says it is a projection.

i'm not arguing that up through 2019 we have seen 1-1.3% growth in death rate....but saying that we DID have that in 2020 with you providing no data to back it up other then a site that is even stating it's projections is just idiotic.

you are doing what all the right wing people that want to ignore things are doing. You will take the data given and try to twist it in a way to make it not appear to what it actually is. you are now only focusing on the excessive death rate....but not on the totals and getting the figures you are trying to "prove"

I don't have to go back 10 years. Just go from 2019-2020. using the Census and CDC numbers.


2019 population 328 million approx. Deaths 2,855,000 approx. - Death rate approx. .0087% (8.7% per 1000 people)
2020 population 332 million approx. Deaths 3,171,913 approx. Death rate approx. .00955% (9.5% per 1000 people)

Based on your site, and assuming they have actual historical data for 2018 prior, they are showing death rates growing, but still only death rates in the 8.4-8.8% range.....I also want to point out that your site is already telling us what the death rate and growth is for 2021. Go to Vegas with those numbers since the site is so accurate you want to base your whole argument on it.

filedata/fetch?id=263415&d=1610132659

So again, if you want to argue something about "excessive deaths" and he % you claim, how about you provide anything beyond the projected figure from your statistical site (statistical maybe for years prior to 2020)

It’s hilarious how you justify using your “Apx” numbers to validate your opinion, but I bring factual statistics into the argument and it’s invalid because they’re projections.

Mind you, they have these projections using a proven mathematical formula that has been proven effective and pretty accurate for many years.

There is a reason that people like you and the msm don’t dare talk about, or even mention actual percentages and overall death trends.

It’s all “OMG!!!!! We have 300,000 more deaths than last year!!!!!”
Zero context.

 

[JolietJames]

What's more amazing is that we can't agree that if this flu was as big as they make it out to be, there would not be threads like this one.
The fact that the "death is in the air" mentality hasn't saturated the populace should point to the fact that it isn't as big a deal as the media portrays it to be.
If it was so damn bad we would all be in agreement about the dangers/lethality.
It's too bad it has consumed so many like a religion.

 

[Pike2350]

It’s hilarious how you justify using your “Apx” numbers to validate your opinion, but I bring factual statistics into the argument and it’s invalid because they’re projections.

Mind you, they have these projections using a proven mathematical formula that has been proven effective and pretty accurate for many years.

There is a reason that people like you and the msm don’t dare talk about, or even mention actual percentages and overall death trends.

It’s all “OMG!!!!! We have 300,000 more deaths than last year!!!!!”
Zero context.

WTF are you even saying anymore? You have provided WHAT FACTUAL STATISTICS?????? I have seen you bring nothing to this but a link to a site that ITSELF states was projections.

to you somehow projections = Statistical facts. Projects can be accurate...but they are not meant to be fact. They are guesses about what is most likely to happen, based on historical statistics, but it hasn't happened yet, so by definition it can't be statistical fact.

I mean in 2016 it projected that Hitlary would win the election...by almost everyone. Is that now too statistical fact?

I guess all the numbers I've provided just confused and clouded your little mind. I gave context against population, the death rate, the increase in deaths over last year, and even the increase in death over what the PROJECTED number of deaths would be, I think the ONLY % I haven't included is the actual % increase of the death rate. (I'll posted it now...but we are looking at an 8.77% INCREASE in the death rate....far higher then your 1-1.3% increase each year). I don't know how that is not providing context.

You have brought nothing to this argument, I've called you out numerous times. You have posted nothing more than a link to a site that offered projections (I guess the 2021 death rate and increase from your site is also now STATISTICAL FACT)


EDIT. in case you didn't even realize it....that little list I posted is directly from the site you posted....so if you are set on calling the 2020 figures statistical fact, how can you argue that the 2021 numbers are not statistical fact?

 

[Provience]

hey, there was always the (pretty good) chance that the CDC was posting full year numbers while saying that the Feb-Dec range was only for the COVID stats.

that is the assumption I was working under and they could say "well yes, techinically that is how we were reporting it all along, of course there weren't 300k excess deaths"

why they couldn't be honest about it, or at least consistent with years past, beats the fuck outta me.

edit: it still isn't enough for me to believe the covid posted numbers aren't inflated, and we've had enough state level people confirm as much.

 

[Rockbuggy84]

WTF are you even saying anymore? You have provided WHAT FACTUAL STATISTICS?????? I have seen you bring nothing to this but a link to a site that ITSELF states was projections.

to you somehow projections = Statistical facts. Projects can be accurate...but they are not meant to be fact. They are guesses about what is most likely to happen, based on historical statistics, but it hasn't happened yet, so by definition it can't be statistical fact.

I mean in 2016 it projected that Hitlary would win the election...by almost everyone. Is that now too statistical fact?

I guess all the numbers I've provided just confused and clouded your little mind. I gave context against population, the death rate, the increase in deaths over last year, and even the increase in death over what the PROJECTED number of deaths would be, I think the ONLY % I haven't included is the actual % increase of the death rate. (I'll posted it now...but we are looking at an 8.77% INCREASE in the death rate....far higher then your 1-1.3% increase each year). I don't know how that is not providing context.

You have brought nothing to this argument, I've called you out numerous times. You have posted nothing more than a link to a site that offered projections (I guess the 2021 death rate and increase from your site is also now STATISTICAL FACT)


EDIT. in case you didn't even realize it....that little list I posted is directly from the site you posted....so if you are set on calling the 2020 figures statistical fact, how can you argue that the 2021 numbers are not statistical fact?

What is the excess death rate in the US for 2020? Based on what you’re saying, it’s over 16%.

2019 was 8.78.

Id love to see how you’re calculating this.

 

[Pike2350]

WTF are you even talking about at this point? How the fuck are you coming up with a magical 16% based off what I said?

I've explained my arguement and used numbers to back it up. You say it's wrong but provide nothing of your own argument other the. A projection from a website. Post your numbers, do your math and explain it if I'm too stupid to understand your vastly superior intellect 🤣

What the fuck do you mean by "EXCESS death rate"? rateDEATH RATE for 2019 was 8.78% per 1000 people in the population. I have already covered that. How about you clarify your point? I dont see anything on your site that says "EXCESS" DEATH RATE. Nor any sort of explanation but what it would even mean. EXCESS of what?

 

[MurderYota]

Wouldn’t “excess death rate” be whatever percentage over and above the expected increase from previous years.

 

[Deleted Member]

This is still goin on?

 

[Provience]

Wouldn’t “excess death rate” be whatever percentage over and above the expected increase from previous years.

well, there is an expected amount, and there is an acceptable range, and then there is an amount above the expected range. it's really a fun game of language and needs to be clarified before any conversation can be had about the term

i'm happy to say that anything above 1% growth from the previous year is excess. I didn't think we would break 3 Million deaths this year, we did. it will be a while before we can get some solid breakdown on where those trend lines are at. with the known and admitted fraud in the covid counting, that means we have some serious growth. when they closed down the hospitals and called damn near everything "elective" and we said then "shit idea, many routine "elective" health screenings save lives", how much of that will we be able to see? when they shut down the economy for 2 weeks to flatten the curve and we said "shit idea, how many people kill themselves every time unemployment goes even slightly?", that might be an easier relationship to see.

but those will take time to be able to dig at

 

[MurderYota]

well, there is an expected amount, and there is an acceptable range, and then there is an amount above the expected range. it's really a fun game of language and needs to be clarified before any conversation can be had about the term

i'm happy to say that anything above 1% growth from the previous year is excess. I didn't think we would break 3 Million deaths this year, we did. it will be a while before we can get some solid breakdown on where those trend lines are at. with the known and admitted fraud in the covid counting, that means we have some serious growth. when they closed down the hospitals and called damn near everything "elective" and we said then "shit idea, many routine "elective" health screenings save lives", how much of that will we be able to see? when they shut down the economy for 2 weeks to flatten the curve and we said "shit idea, how many people kill themselves every time unemployment goes even slightly?", that might be an easier relationship to see.

but those will take time to be able to dig at

I just see it as math. And I may be wrong but so far when I look at the math that has been presented here and in other places that I have looked for it, it looks like we haven’t exceeded that 1% .

 

[Provience]

I just see it as math. And I may be wrong but so far when I look at the math that has been presented here and in other places that I have looked for it, it looks like we haven’t exceeded that 1% .

Products - Data Briefs - Number 395 - December 2020 (cdc.gov)

the 2019 yearly report was published in december 2020, so december 2021 should give us a decent bit more information.

• Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2019 was 78.8 years, an increase of 0.1 year from 2018.
• The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 1.2% from 723.6 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2018 to 715.2 in 2019.
• The 10 leading causes of death in 2019 remained the same as in 2018, although kidney disease, the eighth leading cause and influenza and pneumonia, the ninth in 2019, switched ranks.
• Age-specific death rates decreased from 2018 to 2019 for age groups 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over.
• The infant mortality rate in 2019 of 558.3 infant deaths per 100,000 live births did not change significantly from the rate in 2018.

Products - Data Briefs - Number 355 - January 2020 (cdc.gov)

2018 year

Data from the National Vital Statistics System

• Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2018 was 78.7 years, an increase of 0.1 year from 2017.
• The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 1.1% from 731.9 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2017 to 723.6 in 2018.
• The 10 leading causes of death in 2018 remained the same as in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, age-adjusted death rates decreased for 6 of 10 leading causes of death and increased for 2.
• Age-specific death rates decreased from 2017 to 2018 for age groups 15–24, 25–34, 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over.
• The infant mortality rate decreased 2.3% from 579.3 infant deaths per 100,000 live births in 2017 to 566.2 in 2018.
• The 10 leading causes of infant death in 2018 remained the same as in 2017.

so while we continue to have annual increases in raw death numbers, we regularly have decreases in age-adjusted death rates, but for 2020 we are now reporting a ~10% increase in raw deaths with 3,223,437 (why they decided to change their reporting period mid year, your guess is as good as mine, but i believe it was done to highlight the impact of covid by making it appear to be a larger %). this puts us at 112% of "expected deaths" based on a rolling 3 year average (2017-2019) for the country, with only 2 states reporting below 100% (NC at 80% and WV at 91%) what is allowed for "natural variation" from the simple average? i dunno, but 10% raw increase should see us with an age adjusted increase during this period, as opposed to those where we were getting age adjusted decreases

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (cdc.gov)


other couple interesting notes from the state lines:

CA had/has significant lockdowns and closures and mask policies, ended the year at 112% (national average)

AR had/has nearly the exact opposite policies of CA, ended the year at 113% (1% above national average)

GA famously flip flopped and got lambasted over it's handling, ended the year 113%

NYC ended at 149% expected deaths and NY ended at 116% (excluding NYC) and ol' what's his name got an emmy over his briefings and praise for his handling

WA got hit early on and quickly dropped off being concerned, ended the year at 106%

HI went into a near total isolation shutdown on travel, ended at 102%. with 23k cases, they have the lowest covid case load in the country per capita, well, just ahead of vermont

VT ended the year at 101% with the lowest covid cases in the country.

NJ and AZ are the only two states over 120% expected deaths

 

[vetteboy79]

NJ and AZ are the only two states over 120% expected deaths

Yay! We win at something other than the #1 exit rate!

 

[Provience]

Yay! We win at something other than the #1 exit rate!

NY would be up there as well but "gotta split out NYC because they did such a GOOD JOB!!!"

just imagine what the rest of the states would look like if we could split off the #1 city in each of them!!! Fuck you Seattle!!