Well if you guys followed my advice from about a month or six weeks ago, you would be mostly cash, and this sell off and bounce would not have affected you at all.
Or if you are in it for the long term, this is just a blip on the radar.
Or you were like me and ignored that sage advice and have had a real roller coaster ride since last Monday - bigger account swings than March, and approaching what I saw in early Sept.To be honest, I failed to sell when I wanted due to the Cameron Peak fire situation - I was more concerned saving our house from burning and the aftermath of the fire coming through the canyon - I actively fought and managed to save our home, 2 closest neighbors lost theirs. And I could not trade and close positions as I really needed. As a result my swing trade accounts are down about 10% since mid Oct, I expect to recover those paper losses in short order as long as the election is not contested
Biden wins, market goes up because there will be massive stimulus come Jan/Feb and bailouts for every democratic state and city with their hands out. Dollar will fall, Gold probably a good hedge
Trump wins, market goes up because he will be in fuck you mode, and there will be stimulus, just for a whole different bunch of crooks
Contested election and it drags on, I think you could see as much as a 10% retraction in the SPY, currently 336ish, but expect more towards 327 to 322 to 318.50 then 302 area. Shit really hits the fan 297 then 292.
2016 Markets sold off 9 days straight into and including election day. This year consistent sell off, dead cat bounce Thursday, not exactly sure what the rally yesterday and today (so far) actually mean. Possibly just that the money guys do not see a contested election, and don't see a so called blue wave
I hope some of you followed the NIO trade I mentioned, been long since 6-ish, many adds, and quite a few short and long term option positions, was 35.xx this morning. 300% on latest roll up of options, have $20, $25 and $30 calls for next year and beyond, all green. DO NOT chase here, wait for a pull back first, ideally around 27.50, but these e-car stocks are hot so even sub 30 may be a good entry. If so stops around 27.50 define your risk
JKS - solar company that had a massive run up, would benefit from Biden and green new deal. Been short since mid 80's and even been bag holding some $55 puts that are close to green again. Will cut if Biden wins, but could fall further if Trump gets reelected
Optimistically, earnings in general have been good, or better than forecast. Even with the latest Chinese flu surge projections for Q4 are not terrible, but if Biden gets in and we see another country wide shut down - look out below. Suspect Trump leaves those decisions to the states, and impact wont be nearly as dire.
But all good earnings were met with sell offs, suggesting a risk off attitude through this week. Still many big companies to report, and honestly, this recent sell off will look like a good buying time in a few months when we are back to printing money to keep the bankers happy and stocks bounce back
I probably won't go back to full positions until next week, or if contested, I might just sit out until it gets resolved - nothing worse than having the market move on every little head line.
