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Stock Market 2020

Pocahontas said:
Also comericial real estate looks like it is going to fall off a cliff, majority of office workers are work from home till end of Jan at a minimum or indefinitely.
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Wait til all those companies find out that most meetings really COULD have been handled with an email and they don't really need all that office space. :rolleyes:
 
XtremeJ said:
Double top a few weeks ago as you posted. Now almost close to triple top. You can only knock on the ceiling so many times before you
break through or
fall off the ladder

all the analysts and experts today seem to think more stimulus will mean higher market. No mention of the printing of money and the consequences. Actually heard one guy say that giving the man on the street more .gov money will lead to such confidence that they will start spending their savings. Even if they are not back at work yet. WTF man?
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i believe it.

that's why i'm more than happy to let my pile sit in stocks through this next bit. 'nother round of stimulus, loosen up some of the savings and get the breath of "we will be back to work soon, i don't need to hold indef"

it is a notion that leads to a spring famine, but it is possible
 
XtremeJ said:
Took a couple grand hit on the SPY puts I carried overnight as a hedge, but the rest of the positions more than made up for it.
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:laughing: I did the exact same thing. Who could have imagined the S&P would have gained 58 points on election day!
 
Fishslayer said:
Wait til all those companies find out that most meetings really COULD have been handled with an email and they don't really need all that office space. :rolleyes:
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I think most work from home companies are already working from home. Covid may have changed the dynamic of some places a bit but overall its companies like weworks that take a hit and even centers, not so much existing companies. Most commercial real estate is manufacturing and warehousing. Yeah some meeting rooms were empty but you still need space for your product.
 
One of the traders I know, his company has about 25K sq ft of office space in Manhattan. You can imagine the rent. Their lease expires end of 2021, and they will not be renewing. They have brokers working from home, or working from offices in their local towns in CT, NY, NJ, MA instead.

They reckon their rent bill in 2022 will be about 1/3 of what it now is. And they are just one small Fin firm, I bet there are lots of big city firms making similar decisions.

A racing customer of mine owned a company that developed Medical office parks and buildings, he sold out to a major investment bank about 5 years ago, and most of the proceeds ended in a REIT, and he is limited to how much he can cash out over the next 10 years. His returns are about 50% of what they were this time last year, and he has been warned that the internal dividends are likely to suspended for the next 18 months at least

Sure, two pretty small examples, but I am not hearing anything positive in the commercial real estate realm at the moment.

And why I am glad I am not in REIT's.
 
XtremeJ said:
One of the traders I know, his company has about 25K sq ft of office space in Manhattan. You can imagine the rent. Their lease expires end of 2021, and they will not be renewing. They have brokers working from home, or working from offices in their local towns in CT, NY, NJ, MA instead.

They reckon their rent bill in 2022 will be about 1/3 of what it now is. And they are just one small Fin firm, I bet there are lots of big city firms making similar decisions.

A racing customer of mine owned a company that developed Medical office parks and buildings, he sold out to a major investment bank about 5 years ago, and most of the proceeds ended in a REIT, and he is limited to how much he can cash out over the next 10 years. His returns are about 50% of what they were this time last year, and he has been warned that the internal dividends are likely to suspended for the next 18 months at least

Sure, two pretty small examples, but I am not hearing anything positive in the commercial real estate realm at the moment.

And why I am glad I am not in REIT's.
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Commercial and retail real estate is going to be in shitter for a while. I think Urban apartments are in the same boat. suburban rental REITS. Are probably solid.

My game plan is healthcare, gold, silver. I have a feeling we are in for a second wave of Rona. Grocery and Amazon might be worth a look, maybe some shorts in hospitality. I think this rally fades in 2-4 weeks. Something shitty is in the cards.
 
Norm said:
Commercial and retail real estate is going to be in shitter for a while. I think Urban apartments are in the same boat. suburban rental REITS. Are probably solid.

My game plan is healthcare, gold, silver. I have a feeling we are in for a second wave of Rona. Grocery and Amazon might be worth a look, maybe some shorts in hospitality. I think this rally fades in 2-4 weeks. Something shitty is in the cards.
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I just don’t know enough about real estate to invest. Apart from” they ain’t making any more land, son”

and I sure don’t have the patience to buy and hold for 3 -5 years

Totally killed a AMZN credit spread I took yesterday at lunch. 6.50 entry and it was not looking good when it ran to 9.00ish. Sold most this morning on the gap down open at 1.60 and took final at .74 cents. Walked away with a great wallet padder and did not trade again apart from a small position on a ONH strategy. Over night hold.

agree in thinking this rally does not hold. Especially if a stimulus does not deliver. Only thing against that might be that historically the market always has a good 3 month run post election

but this is 2020 so .......
 
It depends what and when you are buying. I would definitely not be buying anything now unless it was a stupid deal in commercial or urban properties. I would be a buyer of higher end properties and vacation/rental stuff right now but thats it.

Pretty much all of the large office comercial spaces are being shopped right now here. There are a few brand new offices buildings, used less than 6 months up for sale for .75-.60 on the dollar a year ago. The two largest employers have already sold off 10-20% of their office space here in town. I have a few friends that this is what they do and for the last 2-3 months they have been saying its going to get bad. All new contracts suspended or canceled, as long as it basically is less than halfway done its not happening. These guys work for insurance company's in the real estate reinvestment side so they only take certain deals but still looks not good in my eyes. All they are doing is Healthcare stuff at the moment.
 
My real estate knowledge is in low end residential. I buy shit that generally won’t finance cheap, fix it, sell it or rent it. Anything residential I can make a buck on. Right now prices here are stupid, even for junk. Lumber is stupid so I can’t justify building right now either.

Hopefully there is more opportunities next year.
 
Dow futures up 1,700, which is pretty insane. Thanks Joe Biden and completely unsurprising miracle cure announcement !
 
Welby said:
Dow futures up 1,700, which is pretty insane. Thanks Joe Biden and completely unsurprising miracle cure announcement !
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That's what happens when a bought and paid for corpratist career politician gets elected! Wall street got thier guy in.
 
Had some super shady shit happen. Had some 11.50 AAL calls expire worthless. Got a notice after hours that someone did in fact exercise them when they could have bought on the open market cheaper. Log in this morning to see AAL open up 25%
 
you all are welcome, lol. I sold a bunch on friday to sit back and see what was gonna happen.

wasn't expecting to see a 15% jump this am. this is why I hate investing lol.
 
Surveyboy said:
you all are welcome, lol. I sold a bunch on friday to sit back and see what was gonna happen.

wasn't expecting to see a 15% jump this am. this is why I hate investing lol.
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thanks!

:laughing: airlines seem to be very optimistic they will get their bailout or at least that travel will be legal again shortly. it won't last at these levels, but the only other thing i can think of is that they are yet again pricing in major inflation
 
Provience said:
thanks!

:laughing: airlines seem to be very optimistic they will get their bailout or at least that travel will be legal again shortly. it won't last at these levels, but the only other thing i can think of is that they are yet again pricing in major inflation
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seems like its already dropping back down some from the initial morning spike.
 
I'm finding any company that needs people gathering within their businesses are seeing some real gains this morning. Now, where to throw the dart next? :smokin:
 
Gold is down, I’m buying. I’m also going to buy some insurance and banks on the rally fade.


gold is in a trough, it’s hitting the bottom of the range.
 
Provience said:
yeah i'm not changing shit today over it, somebody in the office made a comment so i checked. :laughing:
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I couldn't even log in to my account until a few minutes ago and now I can't complete any trades. Charles Schwab went to complete shit this morning.
 
5150Jeep said:
I couldn't even log in to my account until a few minutes ago and now I can't complete any trades. Charles Schwab went to complete shit this morning.
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wow, etrade was working without issue. i'm surprised schwab got swamped beyond their ability. that's some robinhood type shit right there from a major actor
 
Wish I could take some profit on a couple things but still no luck. :homer:
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Just jumped into Boeing. They are up 10% and getting tarrifs due to some ads. I think they will recover with oil prices going back up, and Joe Biden being elected. COVID 19 ruined airlines and fuel.
 
Slb +20%? I would have guessed -20% with Biden leading. I need to give up trying to predict the stock market.
 
jpmassey said:
Slb +20%? I would have guessed -20% with Biden leading. I need to give up trying to predict the stock market.
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ALK alaska airlines +20%

BP energy +20%

KSS kohls +20%

WES (regional nat gas) +20%


Bailouts, plus promises to invest massive government theft into "green energy" that those oil companies suck up like a vacuum, plus a mixed congress = confidence in inflation, or wall street is high on their own supply and actually full of communists :flipoff2:



PCG (pg&e).....+2% :laughing:
 
Carnival cruise is up 34 % right now.
boeing is 15% i
 
Pump that bubble :laughing:


Hoping for a fade, then buying some banks. Already bought gold(barrick) down 10%. For some reason I don’t think the dollar gets stronger from here :rolleyes:

Its still going to take a year for enough people in the US to get vaccinated to control the Rona.
 
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