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Stock Market 2020

Stocks to keep an eye on - I may or may not have positions, manage your own risk, paper trade if you like

NIO - electric car companies still strong, and after recent consolidation are now seeing action again. NIO confirmed the downtrend break today. If going long, stops would need to be 38.25 (loose) or 41.25 (tighter). Once green going to a trailing stop of 10% or 15% may be a decent plan. Room to 50 plus. I am still long as previously posted and also have options May 21, and Jan 22

JMIA - African Amazon, posted previously, broke 40 briefly today. Watch for it to breakout over 40.75 with volume. Fibs show target of 50 plus. Long with a cost average of 10.xx, and holding a handful of Jan 21 calls. Would like to roll calls, but missed the pull back at 28.50. Not sure we get another chance. My Jan 21, $20 calls are up over 2200%, one of my top 5 option swing trades this year

Cathy Woods at ARK now controls the largest investment fund, she certainly has hot hands recently, and I have made money following her buys a day late, and shorting stocks when she sells. Folks laughed when she called TSLA $2K presplit, and her recent call on BTC has me shaking my head, but hard to argue with her results.

Easiest way to take advantage would probably be just to buy ARK ETF, and hold. Let her do the hard work for you.
 
Unlimited loss? please don't tell me you enter a trade and leave yourself at risk with NO stop loss orders? That would be the only way you could possibly have an unlimited loss looming if the trade goes against you. Assuming you are not selling naked calls or something really stupid. Do you actually have a trade plan, or are you just gambling because you "feel" the market is too high?

So many ways to short the market. Pure short sales on equity will depend on what platform you are using as to whether shares are available to short or not. The commission free platforms like etrade, Fidelity etc may not have the stock available to short. Centerpoint always has shorts available, but I doubt you trade enough to warrant a Centerpoint account, and paying commissions

Probably easiest is as Norm suggests and using SQQQ or similar

I try not to let my "feels" cloud my judgement, and while we may all wonder why markets are at or near ATH's and feel it is over-valued, I am not seeing any long term technicals that support this view. I would be extremely careful shorting the market at present, and if you do, and are using options I would be at or ITM with as much time as I could buy.

Full disclosure though - I am hedged with some SPY puts dated March 21, but this is a hedge only, and I expect the puts to expire worthless. Even hard core bears on fintwit are taking a beating at the moment. Know your risk and trade accordingly.

Sounds like some are wanting to gamble on the market being high, rather than execute sensible trades based on sound technicals. Your money, your trade plans, and happy to have you explain why I may be wrong.

Thanks for the info. As I've said before, I don't really trade. I invest. I buy and hold and it's worked out very well for me over the last 30 years.

I do however look for ways to hedge and that's why I have started looking at things like the SQQQ. I do realize though that it's an ETF built for trading, rather than investing. I've also sold covered calls at times too, when I think things are possibly heading south. No, as I said, no way I would sell short and even with stop loss placed I'd not feel comfortable. I just don't like losses, period. If one of my holdings is going down, I want to figure out if it's permanent or just normal fluctuation. With quality stocks that I buy at lows, this has worked out well.
 
Thanks for the info. As I've said before, I don't really trade. I invest. I buy and hold and it's worked out very well for me over the last 30 years.

I do however look for ways to hedge and that's why I have started looking at things like the SQQQ. I do realize though that it's an ETF built for trading, rather than investing. I've also sold covered calls at times too, when I think things are possibly heading south. No, as I said, no way I would sell short and even with stop loss placed I'd not feel comfortable. I just don't like losses, period. If one of my holdings is going down, I want to figure out if it's permanent or just normal fluctuation. With quality stocks that I buy at lows, this has worked out well.

Sounds like you have your own investment profile pretty well figured out.

One way to really take advantage of any major correction, is to have cash on hand, and buy the dip when it comes. Great advice, but hard to call a bottom, and when it seems like the SHTF, it is hard to go all in, as you don't really know where the bottom is. I left a lot of $$ on the table this summer by being overly cautious on putting cash to work. But much like yourself, I don't like losses, so tend to be cautious rather than going all in.

The Najarian brothers, Market Rebellion, sold a lot of covered calls when the market tanked, and you can even do it on stocks you want to hold long term. I buy and sell covered calls as one of my main strategies in swing accounts I manage for my wife and parents, Really effective way to get your cost average down, and even if you do get called out, you can be comfortable knowing you have sold for a decent profit. Just be aware you can get called out BEFORE expiration, not common, but it does happen.

Heard covered calls described as earning rent on stocks you own, great description.

For those following along, and wondering what Covered Calls are - here is a brief example (prices might not be accurate)

I really like a stock and want to own it long term, let's use AMD over the last few months as an example

Bought AMD at beginning of August when it broke over 77.50. To sell a covered call on AMD, you need to own multiples of 100 shares, so for purpose of this discussion I bought 200 shares at 77.50 for a total of $15.5K, cost average 77.50.

I can now sell 2 x contracts of AMD calls (you do need to be approved Option level 1 to sell covered calls, but it is relatively "safe", and you can do this in your IRA if you want). Strike price refers to the price at which you agree to sell the shares. I sold the Aug 15 $85 calls for $2.00. 200 shares x $2.00 = $400 "rent" or income on those shares. So instead of my cost per share being 77.50, it is now 75.50. IF the stock is over $85 on August 14 (options expire on Fridays, or the 3rd Friday of the month if monthly), I can expect to be called out, and have to sell my 200 shares at $85.00. Am I happy? Well for paying $75.50 (cost average after income from covered call), and two weeks later getting $85.00, or $9.50 "profit" per share is around 12% return.

AMD goes up to 86.xx plus, on Aug 6th, and it now looks like I am going to be leaving money on the table. But who cares, I know I am in line for that 12% return in less than a month

AMD then goes back to mid 70's a few days later, and gradually retraces to 81.30 on Aug 14th, the day the contract expires. I don't get called on my shares, and the contract expires worthless (my ideal scenario). So now I can sell covered calls on my 200 shares again, lets say for Sept 18th expiration, and this time I sell the Sept 18th $90 calls, for say $3.00 per contract. I get 200 shares x $3 per contract (of 100) so $600 in income or "rent", and this now reduces my cost per share to $72.50 (77.50 less $2 Aug call income less $3 Sept call income). If I am called out at $90, I am looking at a return of $17.50 per share in a little over 6 weeks, around 22% (there are some minor costs associated with trading options, even on the commission free platforms), and I am damn happy to make more than 10% per month. AMD goes bullish, and runs as high as 92.xx at the beginning of Sept. At this point it looks like I am going to be leaving $$ on the table, and the person who bought my calls is pretty damn happy (although his cost will actually be $90 strike price + the call price $3 = $93) as it looks like the stock is going to mid 90's and he will only be "paying" $90 for the stock

AMD does AMD, and by the time the monthly options expire, Sept 18th, the price is back to 74.93, and the options expire worthless. I sell calls again for Oct 16, $85 strike price, but with the stock in the mid 70's I only get $1.50 for the calls (you want to sell your calls on days the stock is going up), so now my cost average is $71 per share, and IF I get called at $85 mid Oct, my profit is $14 per share, or around 20% return on my cost average. 20% return in 2 1/2 months is still a healthy return, even if I do get called out

Oct 16th and AMD is 83.xx, calls expire worthless, and it seems like AMD is stuck in a range between mid 70's and mid 80's, so I get aggressive, and sell the Dec 18th 90 calls at $6.50, my cost average per share is now around 64.50 (excluding all commissions and fees along the way). Stock goes on a run between the time I sold the calls, and today. AMD is currently 96.85 and it looks like I will get called out on Friday. Sure it looks like I am leaving 6.85 per share on the table, but lets compare

Buy 200 AMD in Aug for 77.50, sell at market price Dec 18th at say 97.50, $20 profit per share (No calls sold)

OR

Buy 200 AMD in Aug, for 77.50, sell calls as above, cost average now 64.50, and get called at $90 on Dec 18th, profit per share $25.50. The trader who bought my Dec 90 calls needs the stock to be above $96.50 to turn a profit ($90 strike price plus the $6.50 price of the option).

What is the risk?

Well the stock can tank, and you cannot sell the equity until you have cleared your covered call obligation. So AMD might tank to $65. the calls are worth pennies, and you must "buy to close" your options position before you can sell your shares. I bought AMD because I like their long term prospects so I may not sell when it tanks, heck it looks like a nice place to add another couple hundred shares and rinse and repeat.

The stock can go boom, let's say AMD runs to 120 before Friday expiration, now I really feel like I have left a lot of money on the table, and I have. BUT, remember at a cost average of $64.50, and a strike price of $90, I am still making over 30% return in about 4 months, or around 90% annualized return. not too many money managers can make that. I am happy taking my profits, and will just wait for AMD to back test or retrace, and buy in again.

The stock goes nowhere, moving in a very narrow range. The option strike prices will reflect this, and strike prices $5 or $10 out of the money will offer very little premium. So you might have to sell calls at $80, when the stock is $77.5, and you may only get $1 per contract, but if the trend of not going anywhere continues, the chances for the stock to be over $80 when the contract expires is also reduced.

You can also - sell the covered call when the stock is trending up, and if that changes, buy to close your position. You still own the stock, and have just made a few $$ buying the call to close at a lower price than you were paid when you sold to open. I do this a lot, often several times in a month. Nice little base hit trades.

I hope this makes sense, I certainly was never schooled in Fin stuff, and is just something I have learned along the way. Those smarter than me please chime in to correct me, or to explain in a simpler way. I really like the idea of earning "rent" on stocks I own, and like the idea of being called out at a price that guarantees a decent return. It is very satisfying to see what my cost average on some stocks are, having spent the last year selling covered calls every month or two. Really brings that cost average down

Paper trade this for a while until you are comfortable with what I describe. Use high volume stocks that are liquid, not low floaters, and be sure you at least have a basic understanding of options. Manage your risk.
 
Stocks to keep an eye on - I may or may not have positions, manage your own risk, paper trade if you like

NIO - electric car companies still strong, and after recent consolidation are now seeing action again. NIO confirmed the downtrend break today. If going long, stops would need to be 38.25 (loose) or 41.25 (tighter). Once green going to a trailing stop of 10% or 15% may be a decent plan. Room to 50 plus. I am still long as previously posted and also have options May 21, and Jan 22

JMIA - African Amazon, posted previously, broke 40 briefly today. Watch for it to breakout over 40.75 with volume. Fibs show target of 50 plus. Long with a cost average of 10.xx, and holding a handful of Jan 21 calls. Would like to roll calls, but missed the pull back at 28.50. Not sure we get another chance. My Jan 21, $20 calls are up over 2200%, one of my top 5 option swing trades this year

Make sure to send my commission after your huge wins since I posted this. :lmao: Will take cold six packs but no IPA's :stirthepot:

JMIA - all time high's, hope you had buy orders for the break over 40.75, sold 1/2 position at 43.55, almost $3 profit in a couple hours. Sold a couple more of my calls. Think this can push into middle of next week. Really bought back up after the share offering around $31.xx, if you bought the dip below $30, you are looking good. Can still run to $50 plus, though expect a pull back and test of this breakout first.

NIO - up 10% since this post. and I missed it. Should have added but I have a lot of equity, and need to clear a bunch of worthless options off the books today before taking new positions. Room to $50, then ATH's.

Watch TSLA, there was an incredible volume of TSLA 700 calls for today (over 92K contracts on that strike price alone) over the last 3 weeks. I was in and out several times last week, and boy if the stock is only $25 shy of that today. Someone always knows something. Even with only 90 mins to expiry they are running $5. Quad witching and folks are thinking there will be buying as it gets included in the S&P on 12/21. options close 15 mins after the market, so any spike post hours in the stock may just pay off for a lotto

Sympathy plays to the e-cars might be battery and solar names - LI, PLUG, WKHS, XPEV, TAN. But be careful, once TSLA is weighted, there could be a bunch of profit taking, so as usual manage your risk, or be prepared to own them longer, and set stops a little looser. I like LI at a covered call candidate.

Could have been an epic week except I missed two trades that would have been extremely lucrative, such are the joys of trading off my phone while hopping cheap Southwest flights this week to get my A-list status back. Never would have thought I would get 25 flights this year, between Southwest and United I am at 40.

Happy trading, short week next week.

Major milestone, wife's IRA gained another figure this morning. Double since the beginning of the year, and by far the most conservative of the accounts I manage, with at least 1/4 cash at all times. <Definitely not thinking about how much $$ were left on the table by being so conservative though, no I am not>
:flipoff2:
 
Watch TSLA, there was an incredible volume of TSLA 700 calls for today (over 92K contracts on that strike price alone) over the last 3 weeks. I was in and out several times last week, and boy if the stock is only $25 shy of that today. Someone always knows something. Even with only 90 mins to expiry they are running $5. Quad witching and folks are thinking there will be buying as it gets included in the S&P on 12/21. options close 15 mins after the market, so any spike post hours in the stock may just pay off for a lotto

Just saw the last 30mins of trading for Tesla, that's crazy :eek:
 
well, it's been a rough couple of weeks for my portfolio :laughing: after showing moderate to slight gains the first week of going more into BP/XOM/WES/EPD, all 4 have been rolling downhill for the last 2 weeks :laughing: about 10% off "peak", which puts me about 8% loss as of now on EPD, 10% gain on BP and back to even on XOM

not sure when bottom will tag in for oil and gas, but i still don't think it is too far off :rasta:

figured i'd post up just to say that i've had a bit of loss, time will tell if that trend continues much longer or if post january, once the don is out of office, if that will signal a rise in confidence and consumption.
 
I haven't put any new money in since October and my account has only been making small gains (2% for December). With the new year I'll be back putting $ in to my Roth and hopefully getting my dedicated trade account going. I'm still waiting for RKT to take off, will be happy if it can get above 24.
 
What a year to be a trader. Will go down in history, and will be mentioned for decades to come - much like we still refer to the big depression in the late 1920's, and the 1988 crash

My IRA, my wife's IRA, our swing account, and the account I manage for my folks are all more than double (and extremely conservatively managed, yet beat the market by a large margin

My day trade account is up 3 x from the lows (ironically in late Jan and late Aug, not March), double from Jan 1st.

Some expensive lessons, some great winners, lots of improvement, lots of room to continue improving
- need to have a stop loss on every single option trade, if not a lotto trade (expect it to expire worthless)
- stop dabbling in SPY when I am bored, or the market is choppy
- hold winners longer, cut losers sooner
- risk management is vastly improved
- pattern recognition also vastly improved
- smaller positions, allowing more price action, and then hold some of the winners longer
- add to winners, never add to losing positions, never
- trade on price action, not emotion
- let price action dictate trades, I cannot force my will on the market or any stock
- Cathy Woods knows her shit, I laughed at her when she thought TSLA was worth $3000 per share, adjusted for the split, it was near $3500 today. She thinks BTC will go to $300K
- Buy at close, sell at open was a valid strategy - no idea if that holds into 2021
- take larger positions when I have conviction, use adds at pivots if I need confirmation
- don't be afraid to flip from long to short if the tech analysis holds
- the larger the account the easier it is to make your daily goals, duh!, but the increase in stress can be exponential (risk management is key)
- step away from the trade station more often during the day, those small breaks are key to a fresh mind
- don't push the tape
- take a day away from the charts and trading, mental and physical well being is as important as making a living
- no emotions, no preconceptions - going to need a lot more work, cannot deny I get sweaty palms when the trade goes as planned and I am sized large, hard to stay non-emotional when the P/L for the day approaches your goals or exceeds them
- hard work and continued education pay off, my goals when I started day trading were $200 per day, and 3 out of 5 days green. Now less than two years later my goals are 10X that, my risk management is better meaning losers are cut sooner, and I am averaging green on nearly 72% of my trades
- Stewie at Art of Trading, and Levi/PSK/Christian/Leanna at Stock Hunter Trading really know their shit, and are well worth the monthly subscriptions - even if you don't take a single trade alert, both rooms really focus on education.

Biggest mistake without doubt was not putting more money to work in March and April, was way too cautious, and was worried about market sentiment and momentum rather than pure technical analysis (left over bad habit from when I was an "investor" not a trader). Coulda, woulda, shoulda, but left just shy of 7 figures on the table. Sadly not likely to get another opportunity like that in my trading lifetime.

Biggest winners - TSLA (gave me two 5 figure days), AMD (1000% return on options), JMIA (over 3000% on one of the options positions, equity return almost 400%), NIO (options and stock), NKLA (when it ripped to 90 plus, missed the short side trades), RIOT and MARA as BTC plays.

Biggest losers - SPY, had some large options positions go against me in August, lost 1/3 of my day trade account in two weeks. Bad risk management compounded by adding to a losing position. JKS solar, fucked me badly on the short / puts, by less than two weeks (had I bought more time it may have been on the biggest winners list)


Will be closing the last of the losers tomorrow, so I can be mostly cash going into the new year.

Manage your risk, and may we all prosper in 2021

Who is going to start the thread for 2021 or can the OP just edit the title? or Austin?
 
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