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Stock Market 2020

Norm said:
First day of the month usually see’s inflows from 401k’s, doesn’t seem like we have bottomed, but a fed stimulus would be positive.

Could be shitshow until election, a Biden win will cause some loses and a Trump win will be positive. A disputed election could be a major meltdown.
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Disputed elections are sorted out pretty quickly IMO. The final ruling took about 5 weeks including the SC ruling during the GWB election in Florida
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Roc Doc said:
Disputed elections are sorted out pretty quickly IMO. The final ruling took about 5 weeks including the SC ruling during the GWB election in Florida
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IMO, this election is being set up to be disputed, there weren't riots nationwide before gore/ bush election, this is different, we've got Molotov cocktails on nightly news

to think that if this election was disputed, it would be resolved in 5 weeks is foolish my .02

I think the only way we don't get a crash is a landslide Trump win, then they go after him death by a thousand cuts, trying to crash it on his watch, and he cranks up the printers to avoid getting deflation on his watch
 
I think Trump wins and the Republicans hold the senate. Worst case I think the Republicans hold the senate so if Biden wins he can’t do much. A Democrat sweep means I change my strategy to gold and China.

My current stock picks for a 2022 normalization so far are


EPD
KMI
XOM

INTC
CSCO

MET
UNM



All pay nice dividends, all have tight stop losses. I think the oil recovery will happen, and we could see a double on oil stocks in 36 months. A falling dollar will just support higher prices. Looking at some health care real estate REIT’s also.
 
BP is testing the March lows. Yield is a whopping 8% now, even after Div cut in half. It's either going to bounce nicely when oil firms up, or they are headed straight to the shitter. Probably going to increase my position today and regret it later....
 
GarScramb said:
BP is testing the March lows. Yield is a whopping 8% now, even after Div cut in half. It's either going to bounce nicely when oil firms up, or they are headed straight to the shitter. Probably going to increase my position today and regret it later....
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Energy is in for some short term pain IMO, but 24 months from now it's hard to argue it won't be up bigglly.
 
BP stock at $16/share? HOLY POOP! It hasn't been that low since 1993 and I'm not even old enough to know WHY it was so cheap then.
 
Norm said:
Energy is in for some short term pain IMO, but 24 months from now it's hard to argue it won't be up bigglly.
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I know you are right, but I just can't help but think oil DEMAND (duh) is higher than people think right now. It's anecdotal, but I see TONS of people driving all over. I also sit out behind my house every night and have a drink and a cigar for a couple hours watching the sky a lot. I definitely am seeing more and more planes flying every night it seems. I know a month ago they were very scarce. And lastly, I am in insurance. I have a very small trucking company insured that hauls waste from fracking. He almost went out of business a few months ago. Now, the companies that contract him are so busy he is about to add 2 more trucks if he can find drivers. Things are definitely improving.

Then again, a new Rona wave or some other boogie man can eff it all up really fast.....
 
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RunningProblem said:
BP stock at $16/share? HOLY POOP! It hasn't been that low since 1993 and I'm not even old enough to know WHY it was so cheap then.
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well shit, PCG is up over $10, so i'm fully back into the black there. might unload some meager gains (5%av right now) and plop them into BP :homer:

edit: Fawk it, there goes $225 :rasta: guess I didn't specify which particular shares sold, so my basis in PCG dropped a bunch :confused: I dunno, not going to think about it too hard.

edi2: shit, haven't looked in a while, USB (us Bancorp) is back up to $40/share and ALK is still about $40 as well. fuck the airline bailout, let Alaska buy up a major hub on the cheap :smokin:
 
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I sure hope I sold my BP that I'd bought after they did that thing in the gulf haha
 
[486 said:
;n164018]I sure hope I sold my BP that I'd bought after they did that thing in the gulf haha
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My buddy bought after that. I asked today and he said it was around $30/share and he sold at $40.
 
5150Jeep said:
Playing a swing trade with KSS as it hit a 3 month low today. Hopefully it can bounce back like it has a few times before, even after getting bounced from the S&P 500.
Picked up some RAD hit a 6 month low today.
Watching CVS.
Will cost average down on PFE and a few high dividend ETF's.
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KSS came through like I thought it would over the past few weeks.
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RAD just went sideways :homer:
Finally maxed my Roth contribution for the year, so I got a new cash account going on Webull. New goal is getting that account above the PDT rule. Should only take a couple years. :homer:
 
So, what are the thoughts about going to cash on some stuff on nov 2 and wait to see what the market does on Nov 4th?

I think no matter which way it goes D or R, there's going to be a big sell off Wed morning if its to close to call esp.
 
Surveyboy said:
So, what are the thoughts about going to cash on some stuff on nov 2 and wait to see what the market does on Nov 4th?

I think no matter which way it goes D or R, there's going to be a big sell off Wed morning if its to close to call esp.
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I didn't want the anxiety of how volatile the market might get around the election, so I moved all my 401k to bonds three weeks ago. After gaining everything back and more after the March covid dump, didn't want to ride that roller coaster again.

My stocks I play with, I'm letting them ride.:smokin:
 
I stopped out of Intel and newmont mining. Not a good week for them. My loss was pretty small because tight stops. It’s going to be a bouncy month.

With 4 trillion on the side lines I doubt we will see a big downside rip.
 
well dang, BP under $15/ today :laughing: looks like i may have jumped over too early. drawing down pretty hard until the election, should stablize a bit as things go forward, normalcy by spring anybody? that would put us at the original 1 year mark :lmao:

funny thing about BP, i think they stand to gain bigly off a biden climate policy. sure, sure, anti oil might seem like a bad stance for them, but they are pretty huge investors in "alternatives" and under obama (likely) soaked up massive sums for "research" and other such odds and ends. BP the future of green campaign adds and all that.
 
I stop lossed out of most of my holdings, so I’m down 3-4%. I’ll buy them back cheaper probably some time soon. With 4 trillion on the sidelines I don’t think this is anything more than a election correction.
 
What are your thoughts on boeing, American airlines and the cruise lines. They are cheap and I cant help but think eventually they will come back up. Is it a smart buy now or am I thinking wrong?
 
HELL BOUND said:
What are your thoughts on boeing, American airlines and the cruise lines. They are cheap and I cant help but think eventually they will come back up. Is it a smart buy now or am I thinking wrong?
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I don't think there is a need to rush into airlines or cruise lines they are going to be hurting for months or years. They might get a bump if a stimulus package ever comes out.
 
5150Jeep said:
I don't think there is a need to rush into airlines or cruise lines they are going to be hurting for months or years. They might get a bump if a stimulus package ever comes out.
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Travel will be the last to recover, and a lot of those companies will have a huge pile of new debt which lowers the value.

We probably have another year of dealing with Rona before the recovery can really start. I’m buying good dividend yields , REITS, energy pipelines, maybe some tech on the dips. You can get 6%-8% yielding stocks pretty cheap in some areas. Better than 1/4% on savings.
 
Norm said:
Travel will be the last to recover, and a lot of those companies will have a huge pile of new debt which lowers the value.

We probably have another year of dealing with Rona before the recovery can really start. I’m buying good dividend yields , REITS, energy pipelines, maybe some tech on the dips. You can get 6%-8% yielding stocks pretty cheap in some areas. Better than 1/4% on savings.
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alright, serious question that may not be appropraitly related.

How does one buy "junk bonds" or "high yeild bonds" or whatever they are? i.e. corporate debt from people trying to raise money with enough risk that they turn to bond sales. i've seen reports and things talking about what you say, 6-10% yield ranges.

I went ahead and parked $4k into a CD at 2% for a couple years, because it had just been sititng getting near 0% for several years and 2% beats nothing. it'll probably be another year, but i'd like to park another small wad somewhere, or hell dump my current side stepping stocks, into one of those things because a solid 6% isn't bad at all
 
Provience said:
alright, serious question that may not be appropraitly related.

How does one buy "junk bonds" or "high yeild bonds" or whatever they are? i.e. corporate debt from people trying to raise money with enough risk that they turn to bond sales. i've seen reports and things talking about what you say, 6-10% yield ranges.

I went ahead and parked $4k into a CD at 2% for a couple years, because it had just been sititng getting near 0% for several years and 2% beats nothing. it'll probably be another year, but i'd like to park another small wad somewhere, or hell dump my current side stepping stocks, into one of those things because a solid 6% isn't bad at all
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I believe that's one of those questions that if you had the means to buy corporate debt you would know where and how to get it LOL!! The yield is high because the risk is high, look up the history of airline debt defaults and bankruptcies.
 
Slander said:
I believe that's one of those questions that if you had the means to buy corporate debt you would know where and how to get it LOL!! The yield is high because the risk is high, look up the history of airline debt defaults and bankruptcies.
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yeah, i'll take some risk if they will let me play with small amounts :laughing:
 
5150Jeep said:
I don't think there is a need to rush into airlines or cruise lines they are going to be hurting for months or years. They might get a bump if a stimulus package ever comes out.
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Yeah I'm thinking more long term. Boeing was around 400 before rona and is at 150 now. Even if it takes a few years I'm ok with it. I'm not retiring any time soon. Anyone have any money in the ark k etf or tesla ? I'm thinking its gonna dip right after the election . Any thoughts :confused: should I buy now wait a few days?
 
Provience said:
alright, serious question that may not be appropraitly related.

How does one buy "junk bonds" or "high yeild bonds" or whatever they are? i.e. corporate debt from people trying to raise money with enough risk that they turn to bond sales. i've seen reports and things talking about what you say, 6-10% yield ranges.

I went ahead and parked $4k into a CD at 2% for a couple years, because it had just been sititng getting near 0% for several years and 2% beats nothing. it'll probably be another year, but i'd like to park another small wad somewhere, or hell dump my current side stepping stocks, into one of those things because a solid 6% isn't bad at all
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Where did you get a 2% CD. I parked 100k in one at like a 10th of a percent till after the election. I'd love to be getting 2%:eek:
 
Boeing cut dividends. Buddy thinks it's going to come back, but the biggest reason is they're not paying dividends so no one wants to keep it anymore. IT's nice when you have enough shares to get an additional share each time a dividend is issued.
 
Santa said:
Where did you get a 2% CD. I parked 100k in one at like a 10th of a percent till after the election. I'd love to be getting 2%:eek:
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US Bank, they were having a special end of last year, 2% with either 6 mo of 4 (?) year lock, so i went with the longer lock. everything else was like 1 or worse. figured i'd jump on it.

little do i know that only a few months later i'd get bold and basically double my money playing with stocks :laughing:
 
RunningProblem said:
Boeing cut dividends. Buddy thinks it's going to come back, but the biggest reason is they're not paying dividends so no one wants to keep it anymore. IT's nice when you have enough shares to get an additional share each time a dividend is issued.
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Boeing is too big to fail and gigantic military contractor. Buy them below $100 and cheap IMO. You may not get a dividend, but the company isn't going anywhere anytime soon because military.
 
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