Norm
Newb
I still think the market in general is nuts, if it doesn’t correct this fall it will be one in ten event. I only need to be right once more before I retire, so other than gold I’m sitting this one out for now.
The stock market rally has been nuts, and it never retested the lows which is scary. Best case our GDP is down 10% for the next 24 months and the rest of planet will be worse, and that's best case. Market PE is in the upper teens, I'm not a buyer at those levels.
It looks like this will wipe out some VRBO's and I'm seeing some highly leveraged rentals going on the market. So there is hope realestate will come in a bit soon. Like I said, I'm a bottom feeder and happy to wait like a catfish under a dam :D .
We need interest rates to go up before the real estate prices will fall. As long as the financing is cheap, the prices will continue to rise.
Low rates are supportive of housing prices, but employment levels are a larger driver. If 10% unemployment hangs around until 2022, that’s negative. There is no guarantee shit gets any better next year.
My thing is buying shit, fixing it up to be a decent starter home or rental. So I need a steady supply of bank owned houses that smell of cigarette smoke and piss and need repairs.
Bump
not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's
IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video
Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.
Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)
I considered buying some, then GM bought them. Since GM is radioactive waste I stay away from most of the stuff they touch LOL!! Bullet dodged.
I started buying into the market again last week now that I am back employed again, picked up a few index funds and a jr gold miner ETF and put in some buy orders when the market drops. I MAJORLY missed timed the market, I really need to take my Austrian economics hat off when looking at the stock market.
inorite?I am debt free, and have been, but I think we're going to have years of very high inflation. I think the smart move going forward is to take on debt before interest rates rise,
Bump
not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's
IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video
Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.
Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)
Think the GM due diligence lawyers who approved the $2B into NKLA better be dusting off their resume's.
If looking for an electric car company play, then NIO (long from 6.xx, added at 12, recent add at 17.80) looks a better bet than NKLA. Also WKHS, (electric truck company with possible USPS tie in) is worth watching. NIO breakout over 20 could see a run to the 25 area.
Forget trying to time the market if you are investing long term (12 months or longer), you are better dollar cost averaging in. Sure you might get lucky on a few trades, but over time statistics say you cannot beat or time the market.
Will try to post more trades to energize this thread again. My plan to trade less over summer, but take more quality trades has certainly been the way to go. Just need to keep tweaking the risk management side, and keep riding the winners longer, have left way too much potential profit in the market by taking the last 1/4 position off the table too soon.
Damn, rough morning today. Guess I'll be throwing more money into my account.
Bump
not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's
IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video
Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.
Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)
Should have shorted NKLA off my own advice - would have beentrade, but alas .......
Sorry Norm, going to disagree here, as much as the bears would like it, I doubt we see 40% to the downside (around 200 on SPY, 10% lower than March lows). Black Swan event(s) may prove me wrong. BTFD still seems to hold, and even when tech is relatively weak, the market rotates into other sectors then back again - a sure sign buyers remain in control. But, ..... at some point the Fed has to turn off the money printing machine, we have to deal with the so-called second wave (possibly hitting Euroland at the moment), Biden/commie Bitch may get elected, we realize the tourism industry will never get back to pre-Chinese Flu levels, and the market spends a couple years between SPY 320 (even 292/296/300 area) and recent ATH's consolidating. Watch the Dollar Index $DXY over 95 as a leading indicator. As troubles hit other markets there tends to be a flight to the dollar. A strong dollar actually hurts American Companies, so is not really a good thing.
Couple stocks to watch (not buy recommendations, as I am long already)
NIO recently broke out of the 17-19 area, now over 20 today. Will add once it breaks over 21.50. Long since 6.xx and added in low teens, and again in 17 and 18 area
PTON - what a beast, new ATH's today. Think this remains strong until we see gyms open without restriction, and even then some folks may never go back
PENN - gambling stock, was single figures in April, took profits mid 30's, and even with an additional share offering recently remains strong in high 60's. Draft Kings DKNG same sector
AMD - potential to run to 90's and ATH's, over 80 today, have to risk 72 area for long term swing
CRWD - long since high 30's, now 130's. Room to ATH's once consolidation complete, risk to 115-ish if playing loose, just below 21 EMA if tighter
Next few months will be all about managing risk, tight stop losses, and being prepared to sit on your hands (or cash) and not trade until we find a trend. SPY over 332/330 and I am bullish, but significant resistance levels above. Breaks 330 and there is room to retest 320, resistance at 327, but not really bearish until 319 breaks down.
Happy trading all, what are you watching?
PE ratio’s we are seeing don’t last very long in historical terms.
Happy trading all, what are you watching?
Would love to see energy make an effort, sad to say I am bagholding a bunch of energy stuff that will likely expire worthless. Just don't see them making ground until the economy is fully opened again, and even then it might take a while
Gold had a shitty September possibly because it ran up strong after Buffett announced he was long. GLD stuck between 27 and low 30, might add when it breaks over 31 area, long since low 24's
I did cash out a significant part of my swing trade profits so I can put the $$ to work - in metal, rubber, oil, and plastics,, actually buying Ducati, just not the stock,
Paul Smart Ducati with 1100 miles, and a signed Nicky Hayden 848 with less than 2K miles. Bikes I have wanted for quite a long time, and IF they come to market are either modified beyond return to OEM or have a ton of miles. Friend who used to work for Ducati corporate found these for me, and too hard to resist, even though I am cash poor at the moment. I guess 5 bikes could be called a small collection, and the 82 Hailwood has about doubled in price since I bought it. The MV Augusta Tamburini also approaching 100% return (in a little over 3 years now).
These are long term holds, both the Smart and the Hayden are a little lower price than a few years ago, but potentially should see a decent return in the next 5 years or more. Especially being low mileage, though I do know of a Smart still in the crate with zero miles here in the US. Plus it is nice to walk in the office and drool on my bikes rather than just seeing a number in a trade account somewhere. Serves as motivation to kick ass in the market. First Terblanche Ducati I will own, something I have wanted for at least the last decade. You can never have too many bikes (or cars, or race cars, or trucks), but you can run out of space to put them. Next project is a shop/barn at the house that will solve the storage issue for the next few years, at least
I got out of PG&E a few days ago, took my 15% loss and moving on.
Playing a swing trade with KSS as it hit a 3 month low today. Hopefully it can bounce back like it has a few times before, even after getting bounced from the S&P 500.
Picked up some RAD hit a 6 month low today.
Watching CVS.
Will cost average down on PFE and a few high dividend ETF's.
i'm both a little surprised and saddened that a signed nicky hayden is dropping in value. he was a great ambassador for the sport
Unlike stocks there is no chart to study technicals,
I Think it's haggertty that tracks collector car market, and sectors, ie European, trucks, muscle cars, supercars via auction results
Maybe they have a bike segment, or someone similar does.
I understand that your bikes are such a small niche that there might not be enough data, just a thought