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Stock Market 2020

I still think the market in general is nuts, if it doesn’t correct this fall it will be one in ten event. I only need to be right once more before I retire, so other than gold I’m sitting this one out for now.
 
Well, no updates from those in the know in awhile, been a bit of a slowdown.
 
The stock market rally has been nuts, and it never retested the lows which is scary. Best case our GDP is down 10% for the next 24 months and the rest of planet will be worse, and that's best case. Market PE is in the upper teens, I'm not a buyer at those levels.

It looks like this will wipe out some VRBO's and I'm seeing some highly leveraged rentals going on the market. So there is hope realestate will come in a bit soon. Like I said, I'm a bottom feeder and happy to wait like a catfish under a dam :D .


We need interest rates to go up before the real estate prices will fall. As long as the financing is cheap, the prices will continue to rise.
 
We need interest rates to go up before the real estate prices will fall. As long as the financing is cheap, the prices will continue to rise.

Low rates are supportive of housing prices, but employment levels are a larger driver. If 10% unemployment hangs around until 2022, that’s negative. There is no guarantee shit gets any better next year.

My thing is buying shit, fixing it up to be a decent starter home or rental. So I need a steady supply of bank owned houses that smell of cigarette smoke and piss and need repairs.
 
Low rates are supportive of housing prices, but employment levels are a larger driver. If 10% unemployment hangs around until 2022, that’s negative. There is no guarantee shit gets any better next year.

My thing is buying shit, fixing it up to be a decent starter home or rental. So I need a steady supply of bank owned houses that smell of cigarette smoke and piss and need repairs.


Rates and prices have the direct relationship, and it's an inverse relationship.

The current environment is a minefield for flippers and investors because the prices are so high. The baby boomer generation and vockler screwed it up for generations. See, the baby boomers came into their prime when the price to finance a house was high, but because rates and prices have an inverse relationship, the physical price of a house was cheap. Then Vockler started to reduce interest rates to promote growth in the economy, this allowed the baby boomers to refinance the debt lower and lower and each time they were able to reduce the principle. Most baby boomers never paid 30 years for their house because of the reinvested equity. Since they no longer had a mortgage on their primary house, they bought lots of second homes and put their children through college. This is why the baby boomer generation created the most wealth in the history of human kind and that generational wealth is still being consumed today.

Now, unemployment does have an impact, but it serves more as a market shock than steady state. People don't stay unemployed for ever and that shock may ripple for a year, but it will stabilize. Plue unemployment causes mobility, where people move to where the jobs are and thus, changing the housing market.
 
I've been adding more funds to my account and trying to buy on days after the market gets beat down. I finally decided to dump all my AT&T as it was doing nothing but going sideways this whole time. I've been adding to KBWD, SPHD & PFF, my monthly dividend ETF's. Other than that just making small moves and trying not to do anything stupid. :laughing:
 
Bump

not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's

IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video

Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.

Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)
 
Bump

not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's

IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video

Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.

Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)

I considered buying some, then GM bought them. Since GM is radioactive waste I stay away from most of the stuff they touch LOL!! Bullet dodged.

I started buying into the market again last week now that I am back employed again, picked up a few index funds and a jr gold miner ETF and put in some buy orders when the market drops. I MAJORLY missed timed the market, I really need to take my Austrian economics hat off when looking at the stock market.
 
Fed day today so markets super choppy, plenty of opportunity for day trades though.

Absolutely killed it in August - easy to do when the markets are on a steady up swing. Had some tremendous returns from CRWD around earnings time, options averaged over 500%. Bullish long term have been long equity since low 40's with add's in the 70's, and low 100's.

The correction over the last couple weeks burned me badly, was just too exposed on some options contracts, OTM and short term expiry. Need to take my own advice and keep risk in check, so every buy order that fills now gets a stop / sell order attached immediately. Helps remove the emotion from my trading. Saw an almost 40% account swing in less than a week, and not to the good side. :mad3:. Had to trade smart this week, and made about 1/2 of that back, and now pretty nicely positioned

Pull back was a great opportunity to take profits in a bunch of trades, and move to cash, and now have been slowly buying back in at either lower prices, or picking better value stocks. I expect the market to be super choppy this month, but perhaps the Fed news today that no rate increase for at least a couple years will be seen as bullish. And with the election only a little over 6 weeks away, I am certainly not going to go long on margin. Will be running super tight stops or going mostly cash as we approach the beginning of November.

Swing, IRA and long term accounts doing great, my IRA, and my swing account are over 100% this year. Parents accounts at 80%, and wife's IRA (super conservative) at 65%. I really regret being so conservative in April and leaving a pile of cash on the sidelines. So much potential return lost.

Think those predictions I made regarding SPY in early Oct are looking pretty good. Should have taken long term options at the time. :lmao:
 
I considered buying some, then GM bought them. Since GM is radioactive waste I stay away from most of the stuff they touch LOL!! Bullet dodged.

I started buying into the market again last week now that I am back employed again, picked up a few index funds and a jr gold miner ETF and put in some buy orders when the market drops. I MAJORLY missed timed the market, I really need to take my Austrian economics hat off when looking at the stock market.

Think the GM due diligence lawyers who approved the $2B into NKLA better be dusting off their resume's.

If looking for an electric car company play, then NIO (long from 6.xx, added at 12, recent add at 17.80) looks a better bet than NKLA. Also WKHS, (electric truck company with possible USPS tie in) is worth watching. NIO breakout over 20 could see a run to the 25 area.

Forget trying to time the market if you are investing long term (12 months or longer), you are better dollar cost averaging in. Sure you might get lucky on a few trades, but over time statistics say you cannot beat or time the market.

Will try to post more trades to energize this thread again. My plan to trade less over summer, but take more quality trades has certainly been the way to go. Just need to keep tweaking the risk management side, and keep riding the winners longer, have left way too much potential profit in the market by taking the last 1/4 position off the table too soon.
 
I am debt free, and have been, but I think we're going to have years of very high inflation. I think the smart move going forward is to take on debt before interest rates rise,
inorite?
shit's fucked but it seems that the only way to beat inflation is to be a million dollars in debt
 
Bump

not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's

IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video

Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.

Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)

I bought some VTIQ I think when you first mentioned it, before it even became NKLA. I sold out around 50 when I thought it stopped running up. It went up another 40 that afternoon. :homer: Still glad to be out of that stock.
 
Think the GM due diligence lawyers who approved the $2B into NKLA better be dusting off their resume's.

If looking for an electric car company play, then NIO (long from 6.xx, added at 12, recent add at 17.80) looks a better bet than NKLA. Also WKHS, (electric truck company with possible USPS tie in) is worth watching. NIO breakout over 20 could see a run to the 25 area.

Forget trying to time the market if you are investing long term (12 months or longer), you are better dollar cost averaging in. Sure you might get lucky on a few trades, but over time statistics say you cannot beat or time the market.

Will try to post more trades to energize this thread again. My plan to trade less over summer, but take more quality trades has certainly been the way to go. Just need to keep tweaking the risk management side, and keep riding the winners longer, have left way too much potential profit in the market by taking the last 1/4 position off the table too soon.

Yea normally I dollar cost average, but I dumped a ton of stock into cash when this COVID BS kicked off as I was unemployed and my wifes in the airline business. I have been waiting for a cheap entry point back in, but that ship has sailed. I capitalized pretty big in 2008/2009, not so much this time stock wise. I'm a long term investor and dont mess around with trading or short term plays typically. We tested some of WKHS vehicles at my past job and we needed up having to buy the demo unit because our dipshit employees tore it up so bad LOL!!!
 
Damn, rough morning today. Guess I'll be throwing more money into my account.
 
Damn, rough morning today. Guess I'll be throwing more money into my account.

IMO this market is prime for a 40% pullback that might take a year to materialize. It will always revert to the mean at some point, the trick is picking the timing.
 
Bump

not sure if it was here that I posted the NKLA trade or that other web site. Ran from 30's to almost 90's

IF anyone is holding I would recommend selling. The GM investment news last week should have been a catalyst, but the following news from Hindenburg and Citron was not good, seems like they may have faked the truck launch video

Now the SEC is involved and the justice department. This could be another LK type deal where the stock gets halted and is never listed again or it tanks or both.

Know your risks and plan accordingly. Would avoid at all costs, and certainly would not be in options (which could expire worthless if the stock is halted)

I remember about 2 months ago watching CNBC in the morning with my wife and they had some story on NKLA. Made a comment to my wife that everything about that company seems fishy to me, starting with them naming the company. Who was the genius that came up with such an original name?
 
Should have shorted NKLA off my own advice - would have been :smokin: trade, but alas .......

Been an interesting September, was a red month for most traders I know. Personally I was too bullish at the beginning of the month which left me really exposed on the options side when the market corrected. Bad risk management, along with playing sentiment and momentum NOT playing chart or technical action. And almost the opposite on the swing trade and longer side of things, the correction saw a lot of positions hit their stops, and it was good to revert to mostly cash, and book profits. Has allowed for re-entry at lower prices, or entry into new positions. Only bummer is that a couple of positions were John Wicked out, and then reversed, and are now running hard and I am sitting in cash - looking at you GRWG, SPAQ, SHLL. :mad3:

Expect the next few days to be chop city as we are at month end, and quarter end, so there will be some rebalancing in ETF's that might adversely affect positions. Think the market runs in early Oct, especially if it appears the Orange Man will get another 4 years, should stumbling Joe pull an Oct surprise, then possibly we see a correction, but as the last couple weeks have shown SPY 320 area is really strong support.

Sorry Norm, going to disagree here, as much as the bears would like it, I doubt we see 40% to the downside (around 200 on SPY, 10% lower than March lows). Black Swan event(s) may prove me wrong. BTFD still seems to hold, and even when tech is relatively weak, the market rotates into other sectors then back again - a sure sign buyers remain in control. But, ..... at some point the Fed has to turn off the money printing machine, we have to deal with the so-called second wave (possibly hitting Euroland at the moment), Biden/commie Bitch may get elected, we realize the tourism industry will never get back to pre-Chinese Flu levels, and the market spends a couple years between SPY 320 (even 292/296/300 area) and recent ATH's consolidating. Watch the Dollar Index $DXY over 95 as a leading indicator. As troubles hit other markets there tends to be a flight to the dollar. A strong dollar actually hurts American Companies, so is not really a good thing.

Couple stocks to watch (not buy recommendations, as I am long already)
NIO recently broke out of the 17-19 area, now over 20 today. Will add once it breaks over 21.50. Long since 6.xx and added in low teens, and again in 17 and 18 area
PTON - what a beast, new ATH's today. Think this remains strong until we see gyms open without restriction, and even then some folks may never go back
PENN - gambling stock, was single figures in April, took profits mid 30's, and even with an additional share offering recently remains strong in high 60's. Draft Kings DKNG same sector
AMD - potential to run to 90's and ATH's, over 80 today, have to risk 72 area for long term swing
CRWD - long since high 30's, now 130's. Room to ATH's once consolidation complete, risk to 115-ish if playing loose, just below 21 EMA if tighter

Next few months will be all about managing risk, tight stop losses, and being prepared to sit on your hands (or cash) and not trade until we find a trend. SPY over 332/330 and I am bullish, but significant resistance levels above. Breaks 330 and there is room to retest 320, resistance at 327, but not really bearish until 319 breaks down.

Happy trading all, what are you watching?
 
Should have shorted NKLA off my own advice - would have been :smokin: trade, but alas .......

Sorry Norm, going to disagree here, as much as the bears would like it, I doubt we see 40% to the downside (around 200 on SPY, 10% lower than March lows). Black Swan event(s) may prove me wrong. BTFD still seems to hold, and even when tech is relatively weak, the market rotates into other sectors then back again - a sure sign buyers remain in control. But, ..... at some point the Fed has to turn off the money printing machine, we have to deal with the so-called second wave (possibly hitting Euroland at the moment), Biden/commie Bitch may get elected, we realize the tourism industry will never get back to pre-Chinese Flu levels, and the market spends a couple years between SPY 320 (even 292/296/300 area) and recent ATH's consolidating. Watch the Dollar Index $DXY over 95 as a leading indicator. As troubles hit other markets there tends to be a flight to the dollar. A strong dollar actually hurts American Companies, so is not really a good thing.

Couple stocks to watch (not buy recommendations, as I am long already)
NIO recently broke out of the 17-19 area, now over 20 today. Will add once it breaks over 21.50. Long since 6.xx and added in low teens, and again in 17 and 18 area
PTON - what a beast, new ATH's today. Think this remains strong until we see gyms open without restriction, and even then some folks may never go back
PENN - gambling stock, was single figures in April, took profits mid 30's, and even with an additional share offering recently remains strong in high 60's. Draft Kings DKNG same sector
AMD - potential to run to 90's and ATH's, over 80 today, have to risk 72 area for long term swing
CRWD - long since high 30's, now 130's. Room to ATH's once consolidation complete, risk to 115-ish if playing loose, just below 21 EMA if tighter

Next few months will be all about managing risk, tight stop losses, and being prepared to sit on your hands (or cash) and not trade until we find a trend. SPY over 332/330 and I am bullish, but significant resistance levels above. Breaks 330 and there is room to retest 320, resistance at 327, but not really bearish until 319 breaks down.

Happy trading all, what are you watching?

Well, you have been right so far. PE ratio’s we are seeing don’t last very long in historical terms. I’m nibbling on some precious metals, depending on how the election turns I might start taking positions in energy. I’m holding way too many greenbacks, which will probably bite me because I don’t see the dollar holding. Looking at

xom
cvs
kmi


silver
gold
 
PE ratio’s we are seeing don’t last very long in historical terms.

Not even high priced levels, totally unrealistic BS at the moment. And the strong momentum stocks often have not got a P/E ratio because they have yet to turn a profit.

Just another reason to follow chart technical levels, set tight stops and nail and bail.
 
Would love to see energy make an effort, sad to say I am bagholding a bunch of energy stuff that will likely expire worthless. Just don't see them making ground until the economy is fully opened again, and even then it might take a while

Gold had a shitty September possibly because it ran up strong after Buffett announced he was long. GLD stuck between 27 and low 30, might add when it breaks over 31 area, long since low 24's

I did cash out a significant part of my swing trade profits so I can put the $$ to work - in metal, rubber, oil, and plastics, :smokin:, actually buying Ducati, just not the stock,

Paul Smart Ducati with 1100 miles, and a signed Nicky Hayden 848 with less than 2K miles. Bikes I have wanted for quite a long time, and IF they come to market are either modified beyond return to OEM or have a ton of miles. Friend who used to work for Ducati corporate found these for me, and too hard to resist, even though I am cash poor at the moment. I guess 5 bikes could be called a small collection, and the 82 Hailwood has about doubled in price since I bought it. The MV Augusta Tamburini also approaching 100% return (in a little over 3 years now).

These are long term holds, both the Smart and the Hayden are a little lower price than a few years ago, but potentially should see a decent return in the next 5 years or more. Especially being low mileage, though I do know of a Smart still in the crate with zero miles here in the US. Plus it is nice to walk in the office and drool on my bikes rather than just seeing a number in a trade account somewhere. Serves as motivation to kick ass in the market. First Terblanche Ducati I will own, something I have wanted for at least the last decade. You can never have too many bikes (or cars, or race cars, or trucks), but you can run out of space to put them. Next project is a shop/barn at the house that will solve the storage issue for the next few years, at least
 
I got out of PG&E a few days ago, took my 15% loss and moving on. :homer:
Playing a swing trade with KSS as it hit a 3 month low today. Hopefully it can bounce back like it has a few times before, even after getting bounced from the S&P 500.
Picked up some RAD hit a 6 month low today.
Watching CVS.
Will cost average down on PFE and a few high dividend ETF's.
 
Would love to see energy make an effort, sad to say I am bagholding a bunch of energy stuff that will likely expire worthless. Just don't see them making ground until the economy is fully opened again, and even then it might take a while

Gold had a shitty September possibly because it ran up strong after Buffett announced he was long. GLD stuck between 27 and low 30, might add when it breaks over 31 area, long since low 24's

I did cash out a significant part of my swing trade profits so I can put the $$ to work - in metal, rubber, oil, and plastics, :smokin:, actually buying Ducati, just not the stock,

Paul Smart Ducati with 1100 miles, and a signed Nicky Hayden 848 with less than 2K miles. Bikes I have wanted for quite a long time, and IF they come to market are either modified beyond return to OEM or have a ton of miles. Friend who used to work for Ducati corporate found these for me, and too hard to resist, even though I am cash poor at the moment. I guess 5 bikes could be called a small collection, and the 82 Hailwood has about doubled in price since I bought it. The MV Augusta Tamburini also approaching 100% return (in a little over 3 years now).

These are long term holds, both the Smart and the Hayden are a little lower price than a few years ago, but potentially should see a decent return in the next 5 years or more. Especially being low mileage, though I do know of a Smart still in the crate with zero miles here in the US. Plus it is nice to walk in the office and drool on my bikes rather than just seeing a number in a trade account somewhere. Serves as motivation to kick ass in the market. First Terblanche Ducati I will own, something I have wanted for at least the last decade. You can never have too many bikes (or cars, or race cars, or trucks), but you can run out of space to put them. Next project is a shop/barn at the house that will solve the storage issue for the next few years, at least

i'm both a little surprised and saddened that a signed nicky hayden is dropping in value. he was a great ambassador for the sport
 
I got out of PG&E a few days ago, took my 15% loss and moving on. :homer:
Playing a swing trade with KSS as it hit a 3 month low today. Hopefully it can bounce back like it has a few times before, even after getting bounced from the S&P 500.
Picked up some RAD hit a 6 month low today.
Watching CVS.
Will cost average down on PFE and a few high dividend ETF's.

:laughing: i almost did that as well, but anywhere else i'd put it is dipping a bit or sideways as well, so fawkit, might as well let it sit :rasta:
 
i'm both a little surprised and saddened that a signed nicky hayden is dropping in value. he was a great ambassador for the sport

The ones I have seen previously have been beat to shit, or dropped, or high mileage (like 35K miles). I think these were around $13K new, the Hayden paint job retailed at $15K (if you could get them at that price, most went in the $17.5K plus area out the door), so I do feel like I am getting a good deal at $9K for one in immaculate, numbers matching condition with only a couple thousand miles. I believe there were only 100 of the US paint scheme sold in 2010, and they are not making anymore. Sellers are retirement age, and want to cash out, not a great time to do so, and I am hoping I am buying somewhere near the bottom of the market. Unlike stocks there is no chart to study technicals, so really just relying on my bike fundi buddy that keeps telling me these are good deals and to buy now. He has never been wrong on the bikes deals we have discussed in the past. Admittedly, these are not something you can liquidate easily, and just running to a dealer and selling them will result in $$ lost, but I am well aware of that, and when 2020 is well in the rear view mirror I have to believe I will see a decent return.

I don't have the knowledge to invest in real estate or buy, fix, sell deals like some in this thread, so in a way, this is me taking some risk out of the market, and risking it all on come bikes. Even if I only break even on them, it will still be worthwhile in my opinion. Heck even my 907 ie is worth more than I paid for it, and I actually ride that.

While I am a huge Rossi fan, I always rooted for Nicky. Amazing rider, loved his attitude, loved how he gained so many Euro fans while he rode for Ducati, and was shattered when I heard he had lost his life. Need another strong American rider or two in MotoGP for sure. And as a Saffer tremendously excited to see Brad Binder do so well, and get a win as a rookie. His brother ain't too bad either
 
Unlike stocks there is no chart to study technicals,

I Think it's haggertty that tracks collector car market, and sectors, ie European, trucks, muscle cars, supercars via auction results

Maybe they have a bike segment, or someone similar does.

I understand that your bikes are such a small niche that there might not be enough data, just a thought
 
I am glad I pulled out my NKLA investments at their peak.
The hype train made me over $3k in profits!
Sucks that Nikola was so misleading though.

MITO made me some very good money also but I bought super low.

I pulled all out of the market for now and will reinvest in the near future after I do some more digging.
 
I Think it's haggertty that tracks collector car market, and sectors, ie European, trucks, muscle cars, supercars via auction results

Maybe they have a bike segment, or someone similar does.

I understand that your bikes are such a small niche that there might not be enough data, just a thought

Keith Martin (??) used to do the car value thing on vintage stuff, and was loved or hated depending on how he valued your car, and what it actually brought at auction. Even had a Collector Car Market show on Discovery for a few years. He did have quite a lot of conflicts of interest, so perhaps that is why folks were so polar on him

Low volume collector stuff can be really hard to put a value on, short of running it through auction, as "comps" are not easy to come by. Or you need to know someone who follows the market, and I am lucky to have two bike guys I really trust (although one of them did buy me an Augusta sight unseen when I had sent him to Las Vegas to buy me a Ducati - :lmao:), so a quick call to them and they usually have a good idea of where the market lies. And why I am jumping on this sale, Erik tells me he would buy these for himself if he was not paying to put his daughter through college.

When Pat bought the Augusta on my behalf, there were two for sale, mine came up first but with no battery they could not confirm mileage. He won the bid. The second one came up a few hours later, and had a few thousand miles on it, but was lower in the production # of 300 mikes worldwide. It brought close to $40K, I paid $27K for mine. When Pat found a battery and jumped the bike we saw the auction listing was wrong - It did not have 12.5K miles, it had 125 miles on it. Was offered a very nice premium bid on my bike same night, and could have turned an almost $15K profit without ever touching the bike. Turned it down, enjoy having such a low mileage piece of art. Seen comps go recently over $50K, but market is soft this year, and folks are needing cash, so would say this is still a buyers market.
 
Been in an out of NIO the last few days - another electric car company. Seems to get a push whenever there is news regarding TSLA or NKLA.

Recently broke over 20, then over 21.50, pulled back and consolidating now. Would consider accumulating long on dips below 21, and can add when it breaks over recent highs. Potential to run to upper 20's. Stops below 20 for tighter risk play, or 16.95 for long term swing. as previously posted I am long since 6, with several adds along the way, and holding those as long term swing but have taken several nail and bails on this in the past week as it broke out, and on gap ups on overnight holds.

RKT - rocket mortgage is probably best known of the Rocket Companies. Been bag holding for a few weeks, and came within 5 cents of stopping out today, then today news of partnership with Realtor.com, and it ran up over 13%. Watch it in coming days, it certainly has potential to run into mid to high 20's. Ideal would be a pullback on open tomorrow in the 20.50 to 21.50 range, and then goes to red to green. Stops set at high 19's, or if it fails to go red to green, or fails to break over todays highs. Might need some consolidation after todays run, so manage size and risk accordingly. Someone always knows something, and there was pretty large options flow on this a week or two ago (maybe in anticipation of todays news??)

Finished September on some strong green days but red for the month, first red month since Jan/Feb/March chaos. Started October green today, though barely. traded well and was looking great until Pelosi announced essentially no deal on relief and the market pulled. Same as a couple days ago, and the dips got bought up quickly, suspect we see the same the next few trading days.

Bullish above 335, resistance 337.50, tested 336 a couple times today, and while that could be seen as bullish, SPY really needs to break out of this 335-337.50 range, room above to 342. Below 335 room to 332 then 330/329
 
First day of the month usually see’s inflows from 401k’s, doesn’t seem like we have bottomed, but a fed stimulus would be positive.

Could be shitshow until election, a Biden win will cause some loses and a Trump win will be positive. A disputed election could be a major meltdown.
 
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