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nearly a 13% drop in 10 year treasury bond yield just today! and DJIA ending down nearly 1900 <7%.
suddenly, i don't feel so bad about missing out on ~$100 by not holding out for 1 more day
wow. half tempted to toss in ~$100 at close and see if it bumps tomorrow, other half tempted to just wait and see what Monday holds
. Actually your 20% lines up pretty well with SPY low 260's if we kinda fudge the numbers from the highs last Friday, so perhaps we are not that far off.
Finally some pull back after a month of non stop buying - and the bears who have missed on the largest upside in history are all crowing about retesting the lows. Too funny.
All those Robinhood traders killing it, all the fund managers now with serious FOMO, yet we continue to trust "experts" on the fin channels. you cannot will the market to behave as you think it should, your only choice is to follow the market action and momentum.
Nice opportunity yesterday and today to reload on some of those stocks that were extended (and needed a pull back). BA less than 180 is still a great value if you are prepared to hold longer than 6 months. Added AMD, DENN, M, SONO, SPCE, SQ, and took some options a couple weeks out (now that premiums were back to acceptable levels)
And nice to have the bears out yesterday and today so I could make money on the short side and puts. I do have two BA calls that will expire worthless today, but these were effectively the 7th and 8th roll up from last week, so while the loss will sting, the loss is entirely from profits from last week. And the opening rips on BA yesterday and today resulted in large green trades on the 190 calls, more than enough to offset the losses. For some reason I seem to be a better trader when the market is selling off.
No doubt the buy and hold crowd saw a lot of red yesterday, heck one account this week has seen a 25% change since last Friday, but this is to be expected after the run up in the last month. If it was pure equity it would be down around 10% far less than the trailing stops I have set. Slowly going to move options trades to a different account to stop these large balance swings. But that will take years, as some of the LEAPS are for 2022, and 2023
Important SPY levels.
breaks 300 can easily see 294/ 291 then all the way to 275 and possibly low 260's
Chops around today, and closes over 300 then there will be resistance next week at 307/311/313.4. Quite possible we consolidate between 300 and 312 (admitedly a large range) for the next few weeks. The island top on SPY (Friday, Mon, Tues, Wed) will need a gap fill before it is threatened.
VXX did break out of it's down trend, which has juiced a bunch of the options premiums, in my favor today, but a more than 10% move yesterday shows how nervous the markets are. Fed keeps printing money, PPT in full force, FOMO in full effect. One concern will be where the SPY closes today, If low 300's that will print a bearish candle on the weekly - and we will have to see how the market reacts next week. 305 or above and it becomes an inside candle which leans bullish.
Keep trade size small, manage risk strictly, set stops, and trade YOUR plan
I
Norm, I would take you up on that beer bet, but I don't drink cheap beer - you must not have strong conviction about that 20% retraction
I did have a couple red days, so currently 7/10 days green, and even with the BA expiring worthless today I will still be green (by only a few hundred dollars) HAGW traders, back at it Monday
, this "black swan" is like no other crash I can find record of. Not late 90's, not 80's, not 74, and not great depression. So why should this recovery have to follow any historic pattern? For every expert that thinks we have to see a U or W shaped recovery, there is another idiot, sorry expert, saying just the opposite. NONE of them know, and at best they are all sucking theories out of nothing to justify being paid to be on the fin channels. 
i'm just happy to have caught that lesson early and have it not cost me significantly.
All you amateur guys doing this and making money (not really counting people like XtreemJ who I am counting in the pro category) are making me jealous. Here I have been just dollar cost averaging like a timid bitch this whole time. Buy in for the long run. I was thrilled when my accounts were up 1% on the year the other day, but i just keep holding positions (my money manager doesnt even call me when things tank, he knows im a bitch and will just keep investing). It sucks feeling like i miss out when i hear how everyone is making huge returns and i am chugging along behind without playing in the extreme volatility. On the other hand....my job is performing risk studies. I struggle to do things like actively manage my own accounts like many of you have been because with the exception of XtreemJ and Norm I have not heard anyone discussing and building their market plan around risk. That is the ONLY plan that makes any sense to me. I suspect reaching that level takes more than a week after corona hits
Ahh well, i guess ill just keep billing hours and getting paid and hoping to keep averaging 7% for the next 30 yrs :rolleyes:. Never wealthy, but always comfortable.
Edit: I have to include Norm in the category of basing things off of risk, shit that guy is an even bigger pessimistic jew than i am, he conservatively exited the game for the time being
), i could have earned ~$1,500 by selling my plasma down the street that would be less entertaining though.
All you amateur guys doing this and making money (not really counting people like XtreemJ who I am counting in the pro category) are making me jealous. Here I have been just dollar cost averaging like a timid bitch this whole time. Buy in for the long run. I was thrilled when my accounts were up 1% on the year the other day, but i just keep holding positions (my money manager doesnt even call me when things tank, he knows im a bitch and will just keep investing). It sucks feeling like i miss out when i hear how everyone is making huge returns and i am chugging along behind without playing in the extreme volatility. On the other hand....my profession risk engineering for oil/gas/chemicals. I struggle to do things like actively manage my own accounts like many of you have been because with the exception of XtreemJ and Norm I have not heard anyone discussing and building their market plan around risk. True calculated risk based strategy is the ONLY plan that makes any sense to me. I suspect reaching that level of investing skill takes more than a week after corona hits
Ahh well, i guess ill just keep billing hours and getting paid and hoping to keep averaging 7% for the next 30 yrs :rolleyes:. Never wealthy, but always comfortable.
Edit: I have to include Norm in the category of basing things off of risk, shit that guy is an even bigger pessimistic jew than i am, he conservatively exited the game for the time being
