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Stock Market 2020

First post on the -P !

I'm sitting at ~25% increase on my portfolio starting mid march buys. Not terrible, considering I was being conservative. Most of my oil stocks are >100% increase. OIS is 200%, should have put more in there. Airlines are just getting back to neutral, and are weighing down my overall portfolio gain percentage. Buy when there is blood in the streets is such great advice....
 
First post on the -P !

I'm sitting at ~25% increase on my portfolio starting mid march buys. Not terrible, considering I was being conservative. Most of my oil stocks are >100% increase. OIS is 200%, should have put more in there. Airlines are just getting back to neutral, and are weighing down my overall portfolio gain percentage. Buy when there is blood in the streets is such great advice....

I understand the long positions in oil. But I just don't understand a long position in anything related to travel. Auto, ocianic maritime, or airlines.

What are the thoughts here?

The only thing I can see is river and rail lines.
 
I understand the long positions in oil. But I just don't understand a long position in anything related to travel. Auto, ocianic maritime, or airlines.

What are the thoughts here?

The only thing I can see is river and rail lines.

ALK is up about 50% in basically the last week. people are traveling again, confidence is back up that air travel won't go the way of the dinos, airlines benefit from cheap oil due to the large consumption of it, tickets are cheap. travel is still down overall, but the industry is poised to come out of this and, at this point, without mass consolidation. That can still change of course and as the day goes on i feel like it is overall bigly inflated. still, it is setting itself up for a tidy selloff that likely won't hit march lows but will be strong enough down to make everybody call "bottoms retested and in" a 20% drop in DJIA right now would take us from 26.2k to just under 21k and would get huge press just in time for election kickoffs/runups post rioting and likely in the middle of "second wave 'rona", but would still be well above the ~18k djia of march.

airlines will make it through that as well, i don't think the stop orders for travel will be nearly as strong and that is all good for airlines
 
for whatever reason, if i don't sell things off now or soon, if DJIA goes over 27k, i'm out :laughing: full out, fuck it all unless I've got something with very small gains. PCG (PG&E) for example, is still under $12 right now, so that would be about my only position remaining unless it gets to the mid teens :rasta:
 
I understand the long positions in oil. But I just don't understand a long position in anything related to travel. Auto, ocianic maritime, or airlines.

What are the thoughts here?

The only thing I can see is river and rail lines.

Airlines are still the best way to travel. I've flown several times during the pandemic. It's going to take awhile for the fear to subside, but in 6-12 months, travel will be back to normal, and so will the airline stocks. I look at the values in Jan and those are my sell targets. UAL, AAL have a ton of room to run in the next 12 months. I do not invest for less than 12 month hold periods.
 
Airlines are still the best way to travel. I've flown several times during the pandemic. It's going to take awhile for the fear to subside, but in 6-12 months, travel will be back to normal, and so will the airline stocks. I look at the values in Jan and those are my sell targets. UAL, AAL have a ton of room to run in the next 12 months. I do not invest for less than 12 month hold periods.

So you don't foresee a huge shift away from traveling all together? Seems a new paradigm is in play to me. One where people won't be taking vacations or making business trips on the scale as they were in the last expansion. With a new shift towards telecommunications and the application of the new 5g networks going in. I'm sceptical that we're going back to an economy that can support the airline industry. Additionally I see a breakdown of global peace. I'm not saying it will be a world war. But there are likely going to be new developments that lead to less multi-national activity.

Maybe I'm wrong. I guess that's the point of this thread. To flush out reasonings.
 
for whatever reason, if i don't sell things off now or soon, if DJIA goes over 27k, i'm out :laughing: full out, fuck it all unless I've got something with very small gains. PCG (PG&E) for example, is still under $12 right now, so that would be about my only position remaining unless it gets to the mid teens :rasta:

Hang on to PCG a bit longer. The Bankruptcy Judge is currently holding the final hearings on the Bankruptcy, and a decision should be coming soon (week or so???). It's looking very positive, and I expect to see greater upward movement soon.

I plan to hold onto mine until October (fire season), then will probably sell. Even though PG&E should be able to dip into the State Wild Fire fund (if they emerge from bankruptcy before June 30), more wild fires could impact the stock more, but PG&E will be better protected as will Edison and SDG&E. I'm just going to take the money and run before the wild fires start....
 
Hang on to PCG a bit longer. The Bankruptcy Judge is currently holding the final hearings on the Bankruptcy, and a decision should be coming soon (week or so???). It's looking very positive, and I expect to see greater upward movement soon.

I plan to hold onto mine until October (fire season), then will probably sell. Even though PG&E should be able to dip into the State Wild Fire fund (if they emerge from bankruptcy before June 30), more wild fires could impact the stock more, but PG&E will be better protected as will Edison and SDG&E. I'm just going to take the money and run before the wild fires start....

I think that's what I'm likely to do as well.
 
So you don't foresee a huge shift away from traveling all together? Seems a new paradigm is in play to me. One where people won't be taking vacations or making business trips on the scale as they were in the last expansion. With a new shift towards telecommunications and the application of the new 5g networks going in. I'm sceptical that we're going back to an economy that can support the airline industry. Additionally I see a breakdown of global peace. I'm not saying it will be a world war. But there are likely going to be new developments that lead to less multi-national activity.

Maybe I'm wrong. I guess that's the point of this thread. To flush out reasonings.

Nah, people have short memories, and love to travel. People are slowly seeing that this is 95% media hype and 5% actual danger, and once they do, they'll quickly forget it. The only thing that might delay all this is these fucking masks. They create fear, which the only real obstacle to economic recovery in a freeish system.
 
Hang on to PCG a bit longer. The Bankruptcy Judge is currently holding the final hearings on the Bankruptcy, and a decision should be coming soon (week or so???). It's looking very positive, and I expect to see greater upward movement soon.

I plan to hold onto mine until October (fire season), then will probably sell. Even though PG&E should be able to dip into the State Wild Fire fund (if they emerge from bankruptcy before June 30), more wild fires could impact the stock more, but PG&E will be better protected as will Edison and SDG&E. I'm just going to take the money and run before the wild fires start....

i agree, got very very close to selling a whole bunch (relative, obviously) of banking and airline and putting it into PCG and GE as those two haven't 'rebounded' quite like the rest of the world. it would have been either that or sitting as cash, because i think my upsides, based on when i started, are getting much lower in the 3-6 month timelines in banking/travel than they are in those two. well, there are a couple banks and major airlines that will probably come out of this just fine, but i think they will be much slower to rebound. Wells Fargo and United, for example. they both suck, at life in general (personal bias) :flipoff2:
 
Stocks I am watching today
BA, been in a range the last 6 weeks, looks to break out. over the premarket highs of 157.50 there is room to 164 but needs volume to confirm
CRWD been long since high 30's, only 1/8 position left, but with very good earnings last night this has potential to 100 / 103 / ATH today - will be nail and bail only, as I expect profit taking from the traders that bought this into earnings.
VTIQ - about to become Nikola (NKLA) tomorrow, the TSLA of trucks - think traders will buy this up into the ticker change tomorrow. CEO has been on the fin channels pumping this up. was in the 31's yesterday, 33 premarket, potential to mid 30's today. 40's not out of range if volume steps in. Be cautious though, this has seen some large range recently, manage risk accordingly

SPY 308 calls look to open nicely green.

SPCE, SSRM, SRNE and GOLD are the dogs in my swing account at the moment. SPCE seems to come out with more share offerings by the week now, not good for us bagholders. The rest are kinda hedge plays should the market break this uptrend streak

Perhaps I need to start a signalling service and make real money.

BA - did it breakout or what, almost 15 points, so all my long term accounts really went green. Took 160 calls at open, and rolled with profits to 170C, have just one contract left over 300% and will swing overnight - suspect we may see a gap up open tomorrow. Had I held all the initial contracts I would have been done for the week. Will roll up tomorrow again, probably 180's 6/12 expiry (but needs volume to support) - needs a pullback if you want a new position, my roll ups are with profits.

CRWD - IF you were patient and bought it on the dip to 95 you made money on the return to 100. If you were an idiot like me, you misread the chart at open and got long, and had to endure some large red numbers most of the day. Lesson = patience, or wait for another candlestick confirmation. Still CRWD formed a nice PEG (power earnings gap), so will be on my watchlist for consolidation, then continuation higher. NOT a virus related stock, so will benefit as companies open up again.

VTIQ - winner IF you patient. Opened nicely, then fell 10% before recovering, going red to green (one of my favorite setups), I suspect it continues to grind higher as the company takeover plays out, and this becomes NKLA. Considering adding this to my long term buy and never sell account - quite possible they become the TSLA of the pickup truck market, really like their OEM style, and the e-truck market for companies like AMZN, FDX, UPS etc will be huge in years to come.

Even SPCE got a nice bounce today. It has been range bound between 14.50 and 21 the last almost 6 weeks. Can play in the range, but am really watching for when it goes over 18.50, and have a large buy order in just over 21. Long term (for me, so in the next 6 months, I think mid to high 20's is possible). But be warned, they are adding to the share pool with little notice, that dilutes the stock, and stops prices from a good constant uptrend.

GOL and SAVE very nice wallet padding from overnight positions, stopped out of GOL, and SAVE stops nicely in the green. Both on watchlist.

NVAX - massive loss today, was long from 49, had stops expire, did not catch it, and had some bad news today and went to 41. Hard to trigger your stop loss when it is no longer in place - my own fault swinging a trade with a daily stop loss rather than GTC or GTdate loss limit. A year ago I would have panic'd and sold at lows, instead I managed the trade, and instead of being down $5K plus I am "only" down half that. Stops now set, and will give this a few days to recover, but will cut and take my bad medicine below 43.

SPY 308 calls were up over 250% at open, and rolled those up a couple times after taking profits. Holding 213 calls for Friday, they are green, and were up nicely until the sell off in the last 10 mins. Gap up tomorrow I will take profits, and bail. SPY blew through both my pivots today, even with tech weak, QQQ rejected from all time highs today.

Do we gap up open, then fade tomorrow? Do we see a rotation into tech that may have started this afternoon, do airlines and BA continue to rip?

Last night was the first time since late Jan that I actually had stock overnight on margin. Just a small position, back to mostly cash overnight tonight, single BA call and some SPY calls. Because I am feeling a little more confident here - my spidey sense is tingling, and it probably means we are not far from a major sell off. But it takes a very brave or very foolish man to go short the market against this freight train of momentum. I can honestly see the market continuing higher until we get close to Q2 earnings, mid to late July, unless we get some really bad news in the interim. BUT, there certainly has been an increase in SPY and QQQ Put sweeps the last few days, so some folks are definitely bearish - whether actually bearish, or just hedging positions? That is the real question.
 
Hang on to PCG a bit longer. .

I bought at $5 and sold part in Dec at $12 and the rest sold for $17 in Feb. Did pretty good one that one, should have bought more.

Anyways I'm up 37% since March, even with all my weed stocks crapping out. Should have bought more but first time really buying and played it safe.
 
Nah, people have short memories, and love to travel. People are slowly seeing that this is 95% media hype and 5% actual danger, and once they do, they'll quickly forget it. The only thing that might delay all this is these fucking masks. They create fear, which the only real obstacle to economic recovery in a freeish system.

Oh. Well, I wasn't even bring in the Covid concern. That has nothing to do with my hypothesis. I think this whole situation has extremely real underlying concerns at the economic, geopolitical and resource level. Not to mention the lack in useful nature of most of the labor market.

You think we can just bounce back, I think we're at the breaking point of fiat and industrial/technological society.

I'm of the belief that covid was the scapegoat for a systemic collapse that keeps getting kicked down the road, and is now at the ultimate inflection point where real change has to take place to deal with the problem. I believe the first failure started in 1905, then 1928, then 1948, 1968, 1979, 1988, 1992, 2001, 2008, and finally now, in 2020. Maybe I'm wrong, but looking at the situation, it looks like they have taken the problem as far as they can on the course set at the beginning of the 20th century.
 
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Because I am feeling a little more confident here - my spidey sense is tingling, and it probably means we are not far from a major sell off. But it takes a very brave or very foolish man to go short the market against this freight train of momentum. I can honestly see the market continuing higher until we get close to Q2 earnings, mid to late July, unless we get some really bad news in the interim. BUT, there certainly has been an increase in SPY and QQQ Put sweeps the last few days, so some folks are definitely bearish - whether actually bearish, or just hedging positions? That is the real question.

This is my concern. hence why I've got an in my head absolute signal cap at DJIA of 27k. didn't think we would be where we are this early in to june, still agree that july looks to be/should be the bearer of bad news. How far in to june will it bounce and jog up? I dunno.

RGR sturm ruger and co pulled back a little bit today. they had been a solid counter mover during "the worst of times" but hell, they have riden up on the bump with everybody else.
 
You think we can just bounce back, I think we're at the breaking point of fiat and industrial/technological society.

buuuutt, what will the destruction of fiat bring? i don't see anything resulting in the collapse of markets. if everybody switches over to badgers and bread instead of $$, wall street and GS will just switch the symbols around and keep on rolling :laughing:
 
For those following along, I had a PM asking to explain some of my ranting/posting

> = long a stock, buying an equity expecting it to go up, and then sell and take profits. So >BA 157.50 means I bought BA at 157.50
< = short a stock, need to have a margin account or TFD account. Borrow the stock from broker, and promise to pay it back when you sell it. Expecting stock to tank, sell it at a lower price, pay back the broker, profit.
C = call options. These are options to buy or sell a stock at a certain amount at a specified time. Today >BA 170C this week means I bought BA Calls for a 170 strike price, expiring this Friday, at 1.61 per, a contract is 100 shares, so 10 contracts cost $1610.00. BA ripped to 173-ish, and these contracts were over 6.00 per when I sold the last
P = Put options. Options to sell shares at a certain amount at a specified time. Basically a short seller version of options. Used when I think a stock will go down in value.

Options expire weekly, and can be bought a week in advance to several years in advance (also called LEAPS). SPY options expire 3 times a week. Stocks every Friday.

Let me know if there are symbols I use that you don't understand.
 
buuuutt, what will the destruction of fiat bring? i don't see anything resulting in the collapse of markets. if everybody switches over to badgers and bread instead of $$, wall street and GS will just switch the symbols around and keep on rolling :laughing:

Less air travel.

I don't think it will destroy speculative markets. I think it will destroy particular industries within the markets. Go back and read my original post.
 
Stocks to watch today

BA - overnight 170C should open deep in the green, will sell at open. Could grind higher all day, looks like will open around 182, room to 183.85 / 185 / 189 then 193. Probably not all today, with yesterdays run we could do with some consolidation here for a few days.

NKLA (was VTIQ yesterday) IF you took this when I posted, you may have got it around 32 area, looks to open near 37 today. CEO is ringing the bell at the exchange and will be on FinTV today so expect a little pump. Might have some day action, but I also like this for a buy and very long term hold. This is potentially the TSLA of the e-truck business

ZM - continuation post PEG (positive earnings gap).

SPY - down premarket but bounced off the uptrend. hit 313 yesterday, I would like to see some consolidation again before the next leg higher. Breaks 309, will go short, but recent activity is everyone buying the dip. Over 311 then 313 on target. Suspect we see chop mostly.

SAVE up big this morning, will adjust stops.

TSLA has had inside days since the gap up, not interested below 890, but watch if it goes over 900, there should be some momentum. Another few days of consolidating do no harm.

Happy trading all
 
Guess I was dumb for bailing on Southwest. Should of held on a couple more days. :homer:
 
I understand the long positions in oil. But I just don't understand a long position in anything related to travel. Auto, ocianic maritime, or airlines.

What are the thoughts here?

The only thing I can see is river and rail lines.

I am long BA long term, no positions in airlines other than day trades as applicable, but discussing this with a buddy who is bullish (sorry swinging SAVE at the moment, been a killer trade since Monday afternoon, and was in and out GOL yesterday)

He says <quote>

personal, i like the sector (airlines) from a fundamental perspective, relative to where most of these are selling now. sector still supressed from pre-covid pricing. if you buy with a plan to hold, you have to have a long term view, and patience with pricing flux. i see DAL as an industry leader, that's why i bot them. would i buy more right now, personally, yes.
<end quote>

I tend to agree with him, most airline stocks are good value buys at the moment, BUT you have to have a long term perspective. Or be buying the dips and selling the rips. LUV was a steal at low 20's a couple weeks ago. Failures of the deeply in debt companies will be a good thing for the industry in general, slates wiped clean, new opportunities, companies will use this to renegotiate contracts, but with the short attention span of the general public, the whole Chinese Flu scamdemic will be forgotten by the end of the year, and we will be back traveling as much as ever in the next 24 months.

I think history will prove your other ramblings about a fundamental change orchestrated by the new world order or whoever to be absolute bunk. But your opinion, so .....
 
Guess I was dumb for bailing on Southwest. Should of held on a couple more days. :homer:

Hard to go broke taking profits is my motto.

But this is also a lesson why scaling in and out of trades is beneficial. If you has sold 3/4 of your position, you would be watching the rest ride further into the green.

I made the same "mistake" yesterday with BA calls, selling on the way up, and then regretting not holding as I figured out what my potential profits would have been. That is just as bad as Fear of Missing Out, so I try not to do that. 🤣🤣
 
Hard to go broke taking profits is my motto.

I'm staying conservative because I'm smart enough to know I'm dumb. :laughing:

I did complete my first "day trade" today with NERV and I'll probably regret taking a 6% profit on it. I'll be watching that one tomorrow to see how the company press conference affects the price.
 
What a day, and what a week for me. Really struggled Monday, but green the rest of the week, and today ranks in the top 5 best days ever. Moved one day trade account over 30% this week, can almost see out of the hole I dug myself in January. Streak now 5/6 days green.

BA - sold my 5th roll up Call for well over 150% today, started the week with 160C, then 170C, then 180C, then 200C and sold the 220C this morning. Wow. Plus those long term equity buys in the $120 range now really paying off. Heck even my BA LEAPS for Jan are close to going green (been bagholding since Feb). Cramer pumping BA this morning saying it will be $300 plus this year, now that is optimistic

SAVE - huge run up, took profits, no position now
MCD equity and calls were big green this morning, sold off calls for profit, and sold most of the stock, riding last 1/4 position
TSLA stopped out yesterday when it broke below 880, holding very small position

Even my OXY and TCOM are looking good.

Hope you sold WORK before earnings (and why I never hold stock through earnings), still above entry but took a pounding after hours last night. CRWD being chode-ish, but this is a longer term swing play, and been long since high 30's and added at 70's.

Tech sector weak this past week as fin stocks, airlines, casinos ripped. Suspect we see a rotation back in tech and FANG names soon possibly next week.

Bears must really be feeling FOMO now. The non farm payroll numbers this morning just showed the analysts do not know shit predicting unemployment. Just wait until the rest of folks return to the workplace. Savings rates at highest in the last couple decades. But ....... Fed is still printing money like no tomorrow, and when that stops, and when Q2 numbers hit in July / Aug, I believe we see a bit of a rug pull, but I sure do not think we test the march lows, heck I doubt we even give SPY 300 a hard test.

HAGW traders, see you Monday
 
welp, my account current total value is $1,792. just got done selling a whole bunch of stuff as follows.

4 ALK, held on to 1 to see what happens for about 80% gain
2 BA, everything i had :rasta: for about 60%
10 F, half my position just to see where it goes, if it manages to roll over $10 in the next month, the rest will go for about 45%
6 KSS, held on to 2 for about 50%
5 USB, held 2 for about 50%
10 WES, held 6 for about 170%

still holding on to all of my PCG, kind of tempted to pick up some more just for kicks as it hasn't moved much in the last few days and should be better end of summer for other than market emotion reasons.

I've got 1174 in cash that i'll probably pull out to pay back my 1050 (too timid to do more than $500 nearest the bottom) direct investment and use to get my van registered :grinpimp: still have ~$600 invested.

IF and WHEN DJIA drops back down to the low 20k mark i'll try it again. otherwise, thank you all for starting and participating in this thread. it has been fun and I've learned a ton. :beer: Super conservative, the catch a knife and sell a balloon seems to have worked out. I'm not rich, but i had fun and didn't lose my ass
 
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