What's new
By:
Filters

How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

:lmao: at the boomers who say high interest isn't a bad thing when they bought houses that cost a fraction of what they go for today.

According to this logic I should move to the middle of nowhere to buy a "cheap" house, then spend 4 hours a day commuting to my 2 jobs :laughing:

Then they wonder why Millenials and Gen Z arn't having kids :laughing:
 
white-rhino said:
Same here. I owe no one an apology. I did what I had to do to support my family. Imagine the crying here if they had to pay the interest rates we paid.
Click to expand...
Nobody is asking for an apology.

What we want is you to STFU with the "up hill both ways" bullshit when it's clear from hindsight you lived through the easiest macroeconomic conditions (post ww2, pre-globalization, etc) ever even if there was a small bump or too.

Thefishguy77 said:
77k. They made a combined 65k/year and had a 17% interest rate.
Click to expand...

Do the class a favor and express that mortgage payment as a % of monthly income.

Then compare to today.

rockota said:
I'll give you credit for irony... must be tough being a victim like you are...
Click to expand...
I'm not a victim. I've got a house and investments because I prioritized that shit. I'm not hard up for money.

Everyone my age and younger who didn't work super hard to make that shit happen fast is pretty fucked though. Sure they'll buy houses and start businesses eventually but they will be a couple rungs poorer at every single point in their life because of dumb economic (and foreign) policy made by people 30-50yr older than them.


clodhopper said:
Nice try. Not a boomer.
Click to expand...
Boomer is a state of mind. :flipoff2:
 
arse_sidewards said:
Nobody is asking for an apology.

What we want is you to STFU with the "up hill both ways" bullshit when it's clear from hindsight you lived through the easiest macroeconomic conditions (post ww2, pre-globalization, etc) ever even if there was a small bump or too.



Do the class a favor and express that mortgage payment as a % of monthly income.

Then compare to today.


I'm not a victim. I've got a house and investments because I prioritized that shit. I'm not hard up for money.

Everyone my age and younger who didn't work super hard to make that shit happen fast is pretty fucked though. Sure they'll buy houses and start businesses eventually but they will be a couple rungs poorer at every single point in their life because of dumb economic (and foreign) policy made by people 30-50yr older than them.



Boomer is a state of mind. :flipoff2:
Click to expand...
They bought a 77k house on around 60k a year at 17% interest. Today’s combined incomes are easily 150-200k a year and if you dont have to live within 15 minutes of work you can still buy a 3-400k house on 200k a year at an average of 10% less interest points, national average for a 30 year fixed is around 7%. Its not that far off when you factor in interest. But it wont buy you the McMansion in the Burbs that so many people are chasing in order to have status with their friends. It will however get you a nice older 3-400k home 30-40 minutes outside the big city that you can sit on for 8-12 years and sell in the next bull market and then buy the McMansions in debt and complain about debt. You want to do the math go for it but factor in interest rates on those payments as well. I aint going to waste my time.
 
arse_sidewards said:
Nobody is asking for an apology.

What we want is you to STFU with the "up hill both ways" bullshit when it's clear from hindsight you lived through the easiest macroeconomic conditions (post ww2, pre-globalization, etc) ever even if there was a small bump or too.



Do the class a favor and express that mortgage payment as a % of monthly income.

Then compare to today.


I'm not a victim. I've got a house and investments because I prioritized that shit. I'm not hard up for money.

Everyone my age and younger who didn't work super hard to make that shit happen fast is pretty fucked though. Sure they'll buy houses and start businesses eventually but they will be a couple rungs poorer at every single point in their life because of dumb economic (and foreign) policy made by people 30-50yr older than them.



Boomer is a state of mind. :flipoff2:
Click to expand...

These boomers are great. They think they worked hard, but damn... imagine how much harder they'd have to work in a time period that isn't objectively the easiest point in time in the history of human existence? :lmao:

It's the equivalent of boasting how hard they pedaled a bike downhill with a tailwind.
 
Thefishguy77 said:
You want to do the math go for it but factor in interest rates on those payments as well. I aint going to waste my time.
Click to expand...
I did.

$77K home, 20% down = $61,600 financed @ 17% = $878/month on an income of $5,000
$400k home, 20% down = $320,000 financed @ 7% = $2,129/month on an income of $16,667

He may be wrong on most of this, but there is some merit to the math.:flipoff2:
 
MONSTERMUDDER said:
:lmao: at the boomers who say high interest isn't a bad thing when they bought houses that cost a fraction of what they go for today.

According to this logic I should move to the middle of nowhere to buy a "cheap" house, then spend 4 hours a day commuting to my 2 jobs :laughing:

Then they wonder why Millenials and Gen Z arn't having kids :laughing:
Click to expand...
Who said high interest isn't a bad thing? Not me. It's a terrible thing. But we had to suck it up and deal with it if we wanted to buy a house.
Yes, my first house was a fraction of what it would be now. But so was my wage.
 
Bonanza said:
These boomers are great. They think they worked hard, but damn... imagine how much harder they'd have to work in a time period that isn't objectively the easiest point in time in the history of human existence? :lmao:

It's the equivalent of boasting how hard they pedaled a bike downhill with a tailwind.
Click to expand...
i am the very last of the boomers, when i came back home from a 4 year stint in the navy. oil popped and a decent job was hard to find. i moved 200 miles away to get some decent money. the cost of living was double but so were wages. i have never had a interest rate under 7% on land or a houses in my life. tell me how easy it was?
 
Thefishguy77 said:
They bought a 77k house on around 60k a year at 17% interest. Today’s combined incomes are easily 150-200k a year and if you dont have to live within 15 minutes of work you can still buy a 3-400k house on 200k a year at an average of 10% less interest points, national average for a 30 year fixed is around 7%. Its not that far off when you factor in interest. But it wont buy you the McMansion in the Burbs that so many people are chasing in order to have status with their friends. It will however get you a nice older 3-400k home 30-40 minutes outside the big city that you can sit on for 8-12 years and sell in the next bull market and then buy the McMansions in debt and complain about debt. You want to do the math go for it but factor in interest rates on those payments as well. I aint going to waste my time.
Click to expand...

According to the googles, median household income in 2023 is $63K. $13.5 in 1977.

Also says average home price in 2023 is $413. $48 (median) in 1977.

So in 1977 it was a ratio of 3.5 yearly househould earnings per home price, and 6.5 in 2023
 
DRTDEVL said:
I did.

$77K home, 20% down = $61,600 financed @ 17% = $878/month on an income of $5,000
$400k home, 20% down = $320,000 financed @ 7% = $2,129/month on an income of $16,667

He may be wrong on most of this, but there is some merit to the math.:flipoff2:
Click to expand...
Not questioning the math but we are still factoring in peak prices when nothing is moving. Either way most of the people I jnow who a bitching about it mow said it was stupid to buy a house for 3%
 
Thefishguy77 said:
They bought a 77k house on around 60k a year at 17% interest. Today’s combined incomes are easily 150-200k a year and if you dont have to live within 15 minutes of work you can still buy a 3-400k house on 200k a year at an average of 10% less interest points, national average for a 30 year fixed is around 7%. Its not that far off when you factor in interest. But it wont buy you the McMansion in the Burbs that so many people are chasing in order to have status with their friends. It will however get you a nice older 3-400k home 30-40 minutes outside the big city that you can sit on for 8-12 years and sell in the next bull market and then buy the McMansions in debt and complain about debt. You want to do the math go for it but factor in interest rates on those payments as well. I aint going to waste my time.
Click to expand...
You really think it's that common the $150-200k combined income? I don't know and my honest guess would be it's not that common. I think it's more like 100-150k.

I was able to put 20% down on 245k. That was after a year of looking for something that wasn't a POS house listed at 350k or higher. The amount of dog shit built houses at 350k and higher was unreal when the sellers market was hot for 5 years. I got lucky and found a small house, that has had recent renovations in the last 10 yrs and plenty of room to add on sq/ft and increase value with a little bit of land. Also had 60k of equity on the house at closing bc I stuck to my offer/budget. It still took a month before the seller took my offer.
 
Mikel said:
According to the googles, median household income in 2023 is $63K. $13.5 in 1977.

Also says average home price in 2023 is $413. $48 (median) in 1977.

So in 1977 it was a ratio of 3.5 yearly househould earnings per home price, and 6.5 in 2023
Click to expand...

This is what I try to go by to judge the market conditions, iirc they call it, or a variant the "case Schiller index" though it doesn't take interest rates into effect



Either way, I'm anticipating lower employment/ higher unemployment

Rate drops into the spring trying to patch things up for election season, and the wheels coming off the bus for the election, big time deflation for a couple years, with high unemployment, then some major money printing on the other side of it, probably the death of the usd around 2030
 
Thefishguy77 said:
They bought a 77k house on around 60k a year at 17% interest. Today’s combined incomes are easily 150-200k a year and if you dont have to live within 15 minutes of work you can still buy a 3-400k house on 200k a year at an average of 10% less interest points, national average for a 30 year fixed is around 7%. Its not that far off when you factor in interest. But it wont buy you the McMansion in the Burbs that so many people are chasing in order to have status with their friends. It will however get you a nice older 3-400k home 30-40 minutes outside the big city that you can sit on for 8-12 years and sell in the next bull market and then buy the McMansions in debt and complain about debt. You want to do the math go for it but factor in interest rates on those payments as well. I aint going to waste my time.
Click to expand...
parents did $79K @ (IIRC) 12%-ish on < $40k year for my childhood home.
 
gunracer1 said:
i am the very last of the boomers, when i came back home from a 4 year stint in the navy. oil popped and a decent job was hard to find. i moved 200 miles away to get some decent money. the cost of living was double but so were wages. i have never had a interest rate under 7% on land or a houses in my life. tell me how easy it was?
Click to expand...
Apparently, downhill with a tailwind.
 
Aint gonna lie i lucked up with my first house and the market. Also watched my bil roll multiple houses into the mcmansion he is in now. That aint happening the same way now
 
gunracer1 said:
i am the very last of the boomers, when i came back home from a 4 year stint in the navy. oil popped and a decent job was hard to find. i moved 200 miles away to get some decent money. the cost of living was double but so were wages. i have never had a interest rate under 7% on land or a houses in my life. tell me how easy it was?
Click to expand...

Extremely easy.

Let's paint the picture of a post WW2 era white male (let's be real, minority boomers had a tough go of it):

Women in the work place is still more or less a taboo. Luckily, with such strong wages, you could enjoy the incredible easy life supported by a stay at home wife, which is practically unheard of today. (In 2023, we are treated to the joy of two working adults, and the second shift of keeping the home and kids when we clock out of the day shift.)

1702332860581.png


Minorities still under the boot of open racism and discrimination. Getting into college was a breeze. The system made sure you had almost no competition. (Try and get that scholarship as a white male. Go ahead, have at it!)

1702332957839.png


Housing prices, grocery prices, vehicle prices, cost of education, daycare prices (for the few who needed it, as women are still largely at home) are in the toilet relative to earnings. (In today's world, we have this edging as reality: )

1702333041534.png


Wage growth was rampant before cratering.

1702333148179.png


Participation in the labor force-- record levels! You could barely walk down the street without someone pestering you with a job offer!

1702333454306.png


Student loans as a boomer... what student loans?

1702333509238.png



I can't feel sympathy for you having a hard time in the easiest economic climate in the history of humankind. If you struggled during this period, with every single economic tailwind in support, that's entirely your own fault. I would have loved to enter my wealth accumulation years in the climate you enjoyed.

I'll say it again for those in the back-- you had it EASY.
 

Attachments

  • 1702333015449.png
    1702333015449.png
    36.2 KB · Views: 17
[486] said:
why would this ever occur?
Think about what would need to stand idle for it to occur.
Click to expand...
It happened in 09-13ish

High interest rates lead to slowdown in consumption leads to layoffs leads to foreclosure leads to lower home prices leads to further slowdown and layoffs, reduced consumption, the main deflation will be in financed items, houses cars boats vacations eventually trickling down to "sales" and "specials" and "incentives" on goods in saturated markets, cutting the list price is last ditch option, but it happens


Today I spoke to my ex BIL, he does high end remodels and mid to high end spec houses in Nashville, this last batch of spec houses was 6 houses, 3 sold at 750k 4 months ago, next 3 650k 2 months ago, that's deflation


His remodeling calls have dropped by 50%, he has 20 years of relationships so he stays as busy as he wants, but he says the little guys and newcomers are belly up. I assume this means his subs are getting hungry and cutting bids and he's passing some of these cuts along to get contracts, that's deflation
 
Bonanza said:
Extremely easy.
(In 2023, we are treated to the joy of two working adults, and the second shift of keeping the home and kids when we clock out of the day shift.)
Click to expand...


Not that your point isnt made, but you forgot about the $1k per kid per month for childcare. Oh and I got the 2024 tuition increase email literally two hours ago.

The privilege of having two working parents.
 
DirtRoads said:
Not that your point isnt made, but you forgot about the $1k per kid per month for childcare.

The privilege of having two working parents.
Click to expand...

Going along with that is the amount of money that is sufficient for purposes of college savings.

And since we're rolling, let's keep it up:

____________________________________________

-Nearly 80 percent of senators and two-thirds of the US House of Representatives are 55 or older. Just 7 percent of representatives in Congress are millennials. There is not a single millennial in the US Senate.

-Millennials make up close to a quarter of the US population, but hold just 3 percent of the wealth. When boomers were that age, they held 21 percent.

-When boomers were 34 years old, close to half of them owned homes, but for millennials at the same age, that figure is only 37 percent.
 
I had thought that the site members were generally on the center conservative to conservative side of things. I am surprised by the number of progressive Bernie voters around here.



:flipoff2:
 
Bonanza said:
Going along with that is the amount of money that is sufficient for purposes of college savings.

And since we're rolling, let's keep it up:

____________________________________________

-Nearly 80 percent of senators and two-thirds of the US House of Representatives are 55 or older. Just 7 percent of representatives in Congress are millennials. There is not a single millennial in the US Senate.

-Millennials make up close to a quarter of the US population, but hold just 3 percent of the wealth. When boomers were that age, they held 21 percent.

-When boomers were 34 years old, close to half of them owned homes, but for millennials at the same age, that figure is only 37 percent.
Click to expand...
You get what you vote for.:eek:
 
DirtRoads said:
I know far far more millennial conservatives than I do millennial liberals. Most are leave me alone libertarians.

Most boomers think of gen z when they’re talking about millennials
Click to expand...
The bummer is the dichotomy of political focus. Lib/Progressives see more govt is a good thing and that getting involved in govt is essentially a religious obligation. Conservatives, on the other hand, lean toward govt is to be minimized and the private industry is where effort should be focused. Conservatives need to work to change focus and encourage more young people to get involved in govt. Beating our chest at rallys about how disinterested in govt service is shooting ourselves in the foot as all the levers of power end up with a progressive in control. More young conservatives need to be making waves in the political realms. That old guy assumption that the dems face is really the same for repubs, the bulk of govt leadership is old and getting older. And the worst part is many are there on a one candidate ticket or close to it. Many bitch about lack of options, but few will step up to the opportunity.
 
clodhopper said:
The bummer is the dichotomy of political focus. Lib/Progressives see more govt is a good thing and that getting involved in govt is essentially a religious obligation. Conservatives, on the other hand, lean toward govt is to be minimized and the private industry is where effort should be focused. Conservatives need to work to change focus and encourage more young people to get involved in govt. Beating our chest at rallys about how disinterested in govt service is shooting ourselves in the foot as all the levers of power end up with a progressive in control. More young conservatives need to be making waves in the political realms. That old guy assumption that the dems face is really the same for repubs, the bulk of govt leadership is old and getting older. And the worst part is many are there on a one candidate ticket or close to it. Many bitch about lack of options, but few will step up to the opportunity.
Click to expand...

The fucktardness of our all or nothing two party political system could be its own sub forum. Young people need to step up as much as many old people need to step down. The average age of our governance should not be skewed as far to the geriatric as it is.

More importantly, the all or nothing issues like abortion and alphabet people need to left tk the states and dropped from the election year conversation. Unfortunately issues like that are far too financially lucrative for either party to want to truly solve.
 
Last edited:
clodhopper said:
The bummer is the dichotomy of political focus. Lib/Progressives see more govt is a good thing and that getting involved in govt is essentially a religious obligation. Conservatives, on the other hand, lean toward govt is to be minimized and the private industry is where effort should be focused. Conservatives need to work to change focus and encourage more young people to get involved in govt. Beating our chest at rallys about how disinterested in govt service is shooting ourselves in the foot as all the levers of power end up with a progressive in control. More young conservatives need to be making waves in the political realms. That old guy assumption that the dems face is really the same for repubs, the bulk of govt leadership is old and getting older. And the worst part is many are there on a one candidate ticket or close to it. Many bitch about lack of options, but few will step up to the opportunity.
Click to expand...
every political proper noun is a lie, but the conservative/progressive false dichotomy is prolly the most egregious one there is
the "Conservatives" that you slap your chest over are mostly progressives of the republican flavor while the 'rinos' that you revile are definitional conservatives

most of your post seems like you'd be much better served by railing against "collectivists" and rallying behind "individualists"
but how that realization is hidden away is entirely by design
 
Today's generation has some blame to share. You can get ahead, but its neither fun or enjoyable.

oldest cheapest flip phone with no data, using an old TomTom throw away.

Installing an antenna for 3 channels and no wifi. Stopping at a starbucks or wherever to use your old laptop.

AC tombstone welding that rusty tacoma frame together.

Working every hour of overtime.

Back in the day people weren't paying for Subscriptions.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Back Refresh