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Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

Well local update. Sales in my area are down about 70%. My business inspections is down about 80%. Houses under $200k are slowly moving. Anything over $250 sits and sits. New construction has mostly slowed down with stuff being finished but empty lot’s remaining empty.

Shocking that build back better allowed this to happen.

Oh yea 2 different contractors have told me Home Street Bank has stopped all construction loans…
 
In the country here, a 1700 sf house about 8 years old on 10 acres, not a tree on the property but it does set back quite a bit just sold for more than the asking price of 389K , I heard North of 400K , no close neighbors but still not private (the no trees)
 
www.lendingtree.com

Mortgage Statistics: 2024 | LendingTree

Americans owe $12.52 trillion on 85.35 million mortgages. Learn more about this — and how they’re managing and using that debt.
www.lendingtree.com

pretty crazy how quickly loan originations have dropped.

1694204774932.png
 
mobil1syn said:
www.lendingtree.com

Mortgage Statistics: 2024 | LendingTree

Americans owe $12.52 trillion on 85.35 million mortgages. Learn more about this — and how they’re managing and using that debt.
www.lendingtree.com

pretty crazy how quickly loan originations have dropped.

1694204774932.png
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We are only part way through 2023. What exactly are we comparing here? a projected full year 2023 or first three quarters of each year or apples/oranges?
 
Pretty slow in NW MT, a starter home is $500k here so no surprise with 8% mortgage rates. Still a few folks bailing out of Democrat run shitholes moving here seeking refuge, but not a ton right now.
 
Thefishguy77 said:
Well local update. Sales in my area are down about 70%. My business inspections is down about 80%. Houses under $200k are slowly moving. Anything over $250 sits and sits. New construction has mostly slowed down with stuff being finished but empty lot’s remaining empty.

Shocking that build back better allowed this to happen.

Oh yea 2 different contractors have told me Home Street Bank has stopped all construction loans…
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Wow. That area must be a real shit hole. :laughing:
 
east_beast said:
Wow. That area must be a real shit hole. :laughing:
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Is it still an explosion where you’re at? I live in a verifiable shit hole and it’s been dropping steady for a year.

My true home in Colorado, hasn’t even slowed down a bit.
 
Houses haven't slowed down here, but I haven't gotten new bid requests for apartments here in a while. Demand is still high, but banks are demanding more money down and demanding more units get shoved in anything which means more 400 sq ft studio and 1 BR units so the city is more hesitant to approve anything because they want more mixed use which is unrealistic here because the city blocks are small and the city and counties don't like approving anything over 6 stories for some dumbass reason.

Even if housing slows and corrects, it just means Blackrock, Vanguard, etc are going to buy everything up because they want to kill private home ownership and have people stuck in rentals forever.
 
JR4X said:
Is it still an explosion where you’re at? I live in a verifiable shit hole and it’s been dropping steady for a year.

My true home in Colorado, hasn’t even slowed down a bit.
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Still doing pretty good. We're a top area for folks fleeing high cost of living areas in the east. Median sell price is $348k, up 10% over last year. Holes are starting to sell for slightly below list though (average is 2.3% under list) when everything was going over list last year.

The area of CO I fled has a median sell price of $857k, down 7.8% from last year. It topped out in May '22 with a median sell price of a cool million.
 
east_beast said:
Still doing pretty good. We're a top area for folks fleeing high cost of living areas in the east. Median sell price is $348k, up 10% over last year. Holes are starting to sell for slightly below list though (average is 2.3% under list) when everything was going over list last year.

The area of CO I fled has a median sell price of $857k, down 7.8% from last year. It topped out in May '22 with a median sell price of a cool million.
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Yeah, Fruita is up another 6.9% this year to 509K median.

Which is awesome since I sold my house in 2019 and it sold for double what I sold it for 3 years later. I’m the king of bad timing
 
clodhopper said:
We are only part way through 2023. What exactly are we comparing here? a projected full year 2023 or first three quarters of each year or apples/oranges?
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even if q3/4 are the same as q1/2, loan origination numbers at still down. locally there is hardly any inventory, interest rates have turned my start home into a forever home.
 
clodhopper said:
We are only part way through 2023. What exactly are we comparing here? a projected full year 2023 or first three quarters of each year or apples/oranges?
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we're almost in 4th quarter... that's way more than "part way through" the year.
 
JR4X said:
Which is awesome since I sold my house in 2019 and it sold for double what I sold it for 3 years later. I’m the king of bad timing
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lol souths like my luck.

I owned a house in Longmont for 15 years. sold for 80k over what I paid (200k)

3 years after I sold it went for 500k, then a year later for 530k and now zillow has it for 580k
 
You guys should do what I’m doing. Read The Fiat Standard, and be informed and therefore terrified about the direction of all things.

As far as home building, OKC still seems to be booming, but at a slower pace than the utter breakneck shit a year ago.
 
I really like George Gammon's take on macro economics. I also think we're going to see investors locking in gains next quarter. Once that ball starts rolling, watch out.

 
OHV Wildcat said:
Excellent point. He’s telling everyone to hold hard currency to lessen the fuckening.
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but that's still a losing play
even hard money loses value when capital goods become more scarce/valued
less so than valueless fiat in a nightmare scenario, yes, but in anything less than that nightmare scenario floating/fiat is much more fungible than fixed/hard currencies are. Every exchange is much more dependent upon double coincidence of desires, you've got to find someone who wants your silver and you've got to agree on a value (usually in terms of the fiat), generally at a slight discount because of its reduced utility as a trade lubricant...

Dropping that aside;
holding money is an insurance policy against future uncertainty, it is not an investment in goods which can be used for future production
At most he's suggesting treading water in a way that ties up capital in shiny bars and rocks when it could be instead tied up in producer goods which have utility in the production of consumer goods.


So, I've started investing in scrap metal instead of wasting my time on precious metal.
shitty tractors and equipment, crappy vehicles and tools
 
blakes said:
lol souths like my luck.

I owned a house in Longmont for 15 years. sold for 80k over what I paid (200k)

3 years after I sold it went for 500k, then a year later for 530k and now zillow has it for 580k
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Bought my house in Evergreen for $425k in early 2016. Sold for $555k in 2020. Zestimate is currently $735k. It peaked in the mid-800s last year and I was kinda sick. But, the house we bought for $380k here in early 2021 has a Zestimate of $515k so it's basically a wash. We're actually well ahead when you factor in the property taxes and outrageous CO insurance, not to mention all the other costs of living that are all significantly less here.
 
[486] said:
but that's still a losing play
even hard money loses value when capital goods become more scarce/valued
less so than valueless fiat in a nightmare scenario, yes, but in anything less than that nightmare scenario floating/fiat is much more fungible than fixed/hard currencies are. Every exchange is much more dependent upon double coincidence of desires, you've got to find someone who wants your silver and you've got to agree on a value (usually in terms of the fiat), generally at a slight discount because of its reduced utility as a trade lubricant...

Dropping that aside;
holding money is an insurance policy against future uncertainty, it is not an investment in goods which can be used for future production
At most he's suggesting treading water in a way that ties up capital in shiny bars and rocks when it could be instead tied up in producer goods which have utility in the production of consumer goods.


So, I've started investing in scrap metal instead of wasting my time on precious metal.
shitty tractors and equipment, crappy vehicles and tools
Click to expand...

I agree with most of that

I like silver for a long term play when it gets revalued, not as a 3% a year play. Once it gets revalued, it'll be a lot less interesting to me.

I want really shitty tear down houses with utilities for 25k and minimal taxes for a bit and hold.

I stocked up on tools and equipment, not much more I need there.

At this point my current investment trend is going to be putting my kids through school for whatever piece of paper impresses the gatekeepers, but with some real world views to back it up. No reason not to push them into a 150k plus a year world and hit the ground running
 
Projectjunkie said:
I agree with most of that

I like silver for a long term play when it gets revalued, not as a 3% a year play. Once it gets revalued, it'll be a lot less interesting to me.

I want really shitty tear down houses with utilities for 25k and minimal taxes for a bit and hold.

I stocked up on tools and equipment, not much more I need there.

At this point my current investment trend is going to be putting my kids through school for whatever piece of paper impresses the gatekeepers, but with some real world views to back it up. No reason not to push them into a 150k plus a year world and hit the ground running
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Every study I have seen says trade’s journeyman will be paid more than the average doctor inside of 20 years. There is a massive shortage coming as people retire out and the people normally entering apprenticeships are instead staring at screens. I’m encouraging mine towards a trades school operators or sparkies is my suggestion personally to them.
 
Projectjunkie said:
I like silver for a long term play when it gets revalued, not as a 3% a year play. Once it gets revalued, it'll be a lot less interesting to me.
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the only scenario I see metals retaking their rightful place as money is a complete collapse of the current world order
Everything is built upon manipulation of currency, so a little upheaval doesn't cut it, it's basically gotta be gutted for a restart...

Projectjunkie said:
I stocked up on tools and equipment, not much more I need there.
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Much easier to sell an engine drive welder for more than you paid for it than it is to turn a profit buying and selling silver or stocks.
"Easier" as in "entirely dependent upon YOU and not the whims of society as a whole"

Same with heavy manual lathes, same with trailers, same with hand tools, similar with trucks but somewhat less so owing to regulations placed upon that market. Down the vein of the last one, not really the case with guns and ammo as way too much regulation is possible and probable for it to be a proper investment beyond what you'll personally directly use.
 
Thefishguy77 said:
Every study I have seen says trade’s journeyman will be paid more than the average doctor inside of 20 years. There is a massive shortage coming as people retire out and the people normally entering apprenticeships are instead staring at screens. I’m encouraging mine towards a trades school operators or sparkies is my suggestion personally to them.
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As much as I'd love that, I don't see that being the case. The tribe will continue to keep the literal border floodgates welded open. Third world brown people aren't stupid, sure they'll show up with lettuce picking resumes, but if you think you can't turn 20 of those guys into 7 trades men in 6 years, you've got another thing coming


That's why my focus is to get my kids in boss positions with disposable income to invest in real estate, and buy placeholder properties in the meantime.

I do forsee full Weimar in my lifetime and intend to be in the rentier class when it happens. It also doesn't need to happen here. During Weimar collapse you had British welfare recipients living like rockstars in Austria, sometimes buying a farm a month if playing the currencies correctly.

Hugo Stinnes absolutely killed it, basically due to his access to foreign lending



My guess is that we're in a recession or biflation/stagflation, and it will be ended by money printing that will make covid bucks look like common sense. I don't know if it will be "the big one", but it will be ridiculous, and I intend to take on debt when it gets started
 
[486] said:
the only scenario I see metals retaking their rightful place as money is a complete collapse of the current world order
Everything is built upon manipulation of currency, so a little upheaval doesn't cut it, it's basically gotta be gutted for a restart...


Much easier to sell an engine drive welder for more than you paid for it than it is to turn a profit buying and selling silver or stocks.
"Easier" as in "entirely dependent upon YOU and not the whims of society as a whole"

Same with heavy manual lathes, same with trailers, same with hand tools, similar with trucks but somewhat less so owing to regulations placed upon that market. Down the vein of the last one, not really the case with guns and ammo as way too much regulation is possible and probable for it to be a proper investment beyond what you'll personally directly use.
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All of that shit requires upkeep to keep in same condition or avoid degradation. We've all bought expensive shit for pennies on the dollar because it was left in a field for a decade and needed work to undo that.

If you own a climate controlled warehouse (or whatever) to park all your shit in there's better ways to make money with that space than hoarding shit.
 
arse_sidewards said:
All of that shit requires upkeep to keep in same condition or avoid degradation. We've all bought expensive shit for pennies on the dollar because it was left in a field for a decade and needed work to undo that.

If you own a climate controlled warehouse (or whatever) to park all your shit in there's better ways to make money with that space than hoarding shit.
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all my shit is bought and is currently in the condition of "in a field for decades"
you pull it outta mothballs and fix it as you sell it
 
[486] said:
all my shit is bought and is currently in the condition of "in a field for decades"
you pull it outta mothballs and fix it as you sell it
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I figured. I buy the same garbage. It still degrades further as mother nature tries to reclaim it if not stored indoors or attended to on some basic level.

Rust and oxidation of plastics are just nature's inflation.
 
arse_sidewards said:
I figured. I buy the same garbage. It still degrades further as mother nature tries to reclaim it if not stored indoors or attended to on some basic level.

Rust and oxidation of plastics are just nature's inflation.
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hey hey hey now
I know what I've got, no lowballers

It's probably just me justifying my hobby of accumulating broken shit and half finished projects.
Creating a potential future for myself where there really is just a lonely and yawning featureless void.
You know, existential dread personified in rusting hulks.
 
Projectjunkie said:
As much as I'd love that, I don't see that being the case. The tribe will continue to keep the literal border floodgates welded open. Third world brown people aren't stupid, sure they'll show up with lettuce picking resumes, but if you think you can't turn 20 of those guys into 7 trades men in 6 years, you've got another thing coming
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There will always be positions where more complex jobs are happening….
What you’re explaining might happen in basic residential housing or menial tasks on the union site…. But there’s always more complex trade work that not just any knuckle dragger can take on!!!!
Trade salaries have skyrocketed around here, and you can still cherry pick work!!!!!
 
[486] said:
It's probably just me justifying my hobby of accumulating broken shit and half finished projects.
Creating a potential future for myself where there really is just a lonely and yawning featureless void.
You know, existential dread personified in rusting hulks.
Click to expand...

Kindly remove yourself from my brain. :laughing:

Projects are far easier to deal with than people.
 
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