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Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

Here's what I remember leading up to the 2008 housing crash, we'll see if history repeats.

1. The housing market literally went insane, prices were through the roof, balloon and interest only mortgages were the norm, etc. (Not sure how crazy the mortgage side of things have been recently but the crazy prices have certainly been a thing.)
2. In conjunction with this, spending on toys went crazy (yep, same thing in recent years)
3. Discretionary spending dropped like a rock (I think we're getting close here, which drives the next things)
4. Repos and insurance fraud on "stolen" vehicles went through the roof (I think we'll see this again soon)
5. Job losses started which lead to tons of foreclosures
6. The sheer number of foreclosures caused the housing market to crash


I think we're hovering around step 3 right now. The timeframe from step 3 to 6 last time was maybe 2-3 years.

Perhaps looming war and defense spending will prevent us from getting to step 5, if so I think housing prices will be a soft landing as opposed to the crash from 2008. Time will tell...
 
TanTJJim said:
Here's what I remember leading up to the 2008 housing crash, we'll see if history repeats.

1. The housing market literally went insane, prices were through the roof, balloon and interest only mortgages were the norm, etc. (Not sure how crazy the mortgage side of things have been recently but the crazy prices have certainly been a thing.)
2. In conjunction with this, spending on toys went crazy (yep, same thing in recent years)
3. Discretionary spending dropped like a rock (I think we're getting close here, which drives the next things)
4. Repos and insurance fraud on "stolen" vehicles went through the roof (I think we'll see this again soon)
5. Job losses started which lead to tons of foreclosures
6. The sheer number of foreclosures caused the housing market to crash


I think we're hovering around step 3 right now. The timeframe from step 3 to 6 last time was maybe 2-3 years.

Perhaps looming war and defense spending will prevent us from getting to step 5, if so I think housing prices will be a soft landing as opposed to the crash from 2008. Time will tell...
Click to expand...
Time will tell? It's been crashing for 3 fucking years:laughing:

Pretty soft landing
 
Provience said:
Time will tell? It's been crashing for 3 fucking years:laughing:

Pretty soft landing
Click to expand...
So you're saying a slight downward trend over 3 years is a crash? Okay, we can argue semantics over what a "crash" is.

Or we can compare what's happening now to what happened in 2008, which would you prefer?
 
TanTJJim said:
So you're saying a slight downward trend over 3 years is a crash? Okay, we can argue semantics over what a "crash" is.

Or we can compare what's happening now to what happened in 2008, which would you prefer?
Click to expand...
No, I'm saying it is our soft landing and inflation will keep raw numbers up. There won't be a numbers drop.

Inflation over 3 years is what 25%? Add a 5% drop and we have a "felt" 1/3 reduction in housing prices. That is a crash, that is what has already happened.

So soft people are afraid it is still coming without knowing it is halfway through :rasta:
 
Provience said:
No, I'm saying it is our soft landing and inflation will keep raw numbers up. There won't be a numbers drop.

Inflation over 3 years is what 25%? Add a 5% drop and we have a "felt" 1/3 reduction in housing prices. That is a crash, that is what has already happened.

So soft people are afraid it is still coming without knowing it is halfway through :rasta:
Click to expand...

That makes more sense, I completely see your viewpoint there. I hesitantly agree with your conclusion too, as much as I'd like to see a 2008 level crash I don't think it'll happen this time around and you may be 100% correct.

Now if we start to see job losses and foreclosures spread like wildfire, hold onto you ass!
 
TanTJJim said:
Here's what I remember leading up to the 2008 housing crash, we'll see if history repeats.

1. The housing market literally went insane, prices were through the roof, balloon and interest only mortgages were the norm, etc. (Not sure how crazy the mortgage side of things have been recently but the crazy prices have certainly been a thing.)
2. In conjunction with this, spending on toys went crazy (yep, same thing in recent years)
3. Discretionary spending dropped like a rock (I think we're getting close here, which drives the next things)
4. Repos and insurance fraud on "stolen" vehicles went through the roof (I think we'll see this again soon)
5. Job losses started which lead to tons of foreclosures
6. The sheer number of foreclosures caused the housing market to crash


I think we're hovering around step 3 right now. The timeframe from step 3 to 6 last time was maybe 2-3 years.

Perhaps looming war and defense spending will prevent us from getting to step 5, if so I think housing prices will be a soft landing as opposed to the crash from 2008. Time will tell...
Click to expand...
We think very alike. Part of me say we’ll be in a war by the time whoever get in the White House in 2025. A stop gap from step 6 and reversing step 5.
 
TanTJJim said:
Here's what I remember leading up to the 2008 housing crash, we'll see if history repeats.

1. The housing market literally went insane, prices were through the roof, balloon and interest only mortgages were the norm, etc. (Not sure how crazy the mortgage side of things have been recently but the crazy prices have certainly been a thing.)
2. In conjunction with this, spending on toys went crazy (yep, same thing in recent years)
3. Discretionary spending dropped like a rock (I think we're getting close here, which drives the next things)
4. Repos and insurance fraud on "stolen" vehicles went through the roof (I think we'll see this again soon)
5. Job losses started which lead to tons of foreclosures
6. The sheer number of foreclosures caused the housing market to crash


I think we're hovering around step 3 right now. The timeframe from step 3 to 6 last time was maybe 2-3 years.

Perhaps looming war and defense spending will prevent us from getting to step 5, if so I think housing prices will be a soft landing as opposed to the crash from 2008. Time will tell...
Click to expand...
This time around step one is missing stated income loans, adjustable rate loans, and interest only loans given to anyone who can sign their name. So most homeowners are sitting on a 30 yr mortgage with a rate somewhere between 3-5%. So we don’t have that perfect storm coming from all sides this time around. I’ve heard car repos are rising exponentially, and I’m sure boats and rv’s are right behind that curve, but usually your house is the last thing you let go of when times get tough and rents are higher than mortgage rates. There’s undoubtedly a recession/ correction imminent but I don’t think it will be to the magnitude of a ‘crash’ in most markets.
 
Provience said:
No, I'm saying it is our soft landing and inflation will keep raw numbers up. There won't be a numbers drop.

Inflation over 3 years is what 25%? Add a 5% drop and we have a "felt" 1/3 reduction in housing prices. That is a crash, that is what has already happened.

So soft people are afraid it is still coming without knowing it is halfway through :rasta:
Click to expand...

Agree with soft landing or slow down turn. Anyone with a 3-4% interest rate will sell their dog before giving the home to the bank. The increased rent prices will cost them more than that morgage.

The 1/3 reduction in house prices is not much, considering most homes sold way over asking and got bid up over appraisal. Most homes around here are "100g" over valued and the prices haven't reached normal levels.

People are afraid because fuel is up making that RV/camper trip expensive. The camper/truck payment doesn't stop because you're not using it. All starts adding up.

Feeling i have surfing FB marketplace.

Worst is someone stuck with a horrible flipper home that's falling apart with no money for repairs. Thos will foreclosure
 
I was hoping for a retraction in housing price (A nice crash). The longer things go the more I think that cars will crash due to repos, toys will crash from repos, but housing will stay right where it is.

Hypothetical: You have to move to an area for 3 years starting next year. Going to be renting our current place as the mortgage rate is stupid low. New location has limited rental homes available. Im not living in an apartment. The question, do you buy a house or not.
 
In the past couple months, 2 of the wrecks on my block have been flipped, one took about 6 months to sell and they dropped 10% from the absolute peak price. Now a third is getting done as well and somebody tore down the old abandoned Cafe on the corner. Another I thought had sold, but the car hasn't moved for a while so maybe not.

Really only 3 or so wreck houses that I can see from my yard. Slowed down, but the prices are really dropping and still moving in a reasonable time frame.

I think job move are going to force a bunch of people to move and in 2 years people will be used to the interest rates etc.
 
Clemson13 said:
I was hoping for a retraction in housing price (A nice crash). The longer things go the more I think that cars will crash due to repos, toys will crash from repos, but housing will stay right where it is.

Hypothetical: You have to move to an area for 3 years starting next year. Going to be renting our current place as the mortgage rate is stupid low. New location has limited rental homes available. Im not living in an apartment. The question, do you buy a house or not.
Click to expand...
You're going to buy a house, because it still makes more sense and fuck dealing with rental shit. You'll still be money ahead in fees compared to renting for same period even if prices don't really go up
 
Clemson13 said:
Hypothetical: You have to move to an area for 3 years starting next year. Going to be renting our current place as the mortgage rate is stupid low. New location has limited rental homes available. Im not living in an apartment. The question, do you buy a house or not.
Click to expand...
well yeah
prices aren't going down
that would be deflation

and everyone's convinced that deflation is the devil for some very strange self-flagellation sorta reason that I can not fathom
 
[486] said:
well yeah
prices aren't going down
that would be deflation

and everyone's convinced that deflation is the devil for some very strange self-flagellation sorta reason that I can not fathom
Click to expand...
See 2 weeks to flatten the curve shutdowns for the "extreme" deflation that everybody fears. A tenth of a percent drop is the same as that was actualized, in the minds of the advisors and fiat proponents
 
WTF? said:
This time around step one is missing stated income loans, adjustable rate loans, and interest only loans given to anyone who can sign their name.
Click to expand...

Thank you for the insight, I was always curious how crazy the mortgage environment got this time around.

Seems like now things add up to people having more motivation to stay in their current mortgage even if the market corrects a bit and they lose equity vs previously conditions when bailing on an upside down home and a shitty mortgage was a no brainier.

Crazy to think that 5 years ago I had it all figured out and a crash was right around the corner vs reality now where $350k is a starter home. It didn't feel right at the time but I'm glad I bought 2 years ago!
 
Clemson13 said:
Hypothetical: You have to move to an area for 3 years starting next year. Going to be renting our current place as the mortgage rate is stupid low. New location has limited rental homes available. Im not living in an apartment. The question, do you buy a house or not.
Click to expand...

If you have alittle for down payment, I'd buy a house.

Temporary stay, snag a rough around the edges ranch slab house with good bones Go cheap and don't get starry eyed at dream places or elaborate remodeling.

Treat it like an apartment.

Fuck, just described my home. An apartment with storage lol
 
WTF? said:
This time around step one is missing stated income loans, adjustable rate loans, and interest only loans given to anyone who can sign their name. So most homeowners are sitting on a 30 yr mortgage with a rate somewhere between 3-5%. So we don’t have that perfect storm coming from all sides this time around. I’ve heard car repos are rising exponentially, and I’m sure boats and rv’s are right behind that curve, but usually your house is the last thing you let go of when times get tough and rents are higher than mortgage rates. There’s undoubtedly a recession/ correction imminent but I don’t think it will be to the magnitude of a ‘crash’ in most markets.
Click to expand...
I agree.

The last time around Wall Street fucked us all by packaging sub-prime loans multiple times. They made millions upon millions and nobody got called on it, instead we got that fucked up Dodd -Frank bill that screwed people like me with stellar credit and still had to pay PMI. :mad3:
 
Roc Doc said:
I agree.

The last time around Wall Street fucked us all by packaging sub-prime loans multiple times. They made millions upon millions and nobody got called on it, instead we got that fucked up Dodd -Frank bill that screwed people like me with stellar credit and still had to pay PMI. :mad3:
Click to expand...
Yeah, wall street fucked us good :laughing:

Risky loans and a shaky housing market is the only way I was able to get into a house and start setting myself up. Helped the hell out of me
 
Provience said:
Yeah, wall street fucked us good :laughing:

Risky loans and a shaky housing market is the only way I was able to get into a house and start setting myself up. Helped the hell out of me
Click to expand...
Same here. I bought my LV house in 1998 with 5% down that I took as a loan from my 401k. Nobody asked me where the money came from, or if I could even fog a mirror. FFW to 2016, and we put down 22% cash, had 60% equity in the Vegas house with a renter, both had FICO's over 800 and I still had to pay PMI. Fuckers. Next house will be a cash purchase.
 
One of my jobs is a realtor w/ Mossy Oak Properties. I’m busier now than I’ve ever been and still selling places for more than I think most are worth.
I think a lot of mine are just people moving out of Illinois since I’m just across the state line.
They still work there but choose to live here for obvious reasons.
Major housing shortage still in my area. Recreational property is still going strong as well.
 
The Snowman said:
One of my jobs is a realtor w/ Mossy Oak Properties. I’m busier now than I’ve ever been and still selling places for more than I think most are worth.
I think a lot of mine are just people moving out of Illinois since I’m just across the state line.
They still work there but choose to live here for obvious reasons.
Major housing shortage still in my area. Recreational property is still going strong as well.
Click to expand...



What's a "recreational" property go for in those parts?

I'm looking for 2-300 acres, mix of woods/farmland, with water/power available (well preferred), about 60ish minutes from a big (50K+) town
 
Pt_Ranger_v8 said:
What's a "recreational" property go for in those parts?

I'm looking for 2-300 acres, mix of woods/farmland, with water/power available (well preferred), about 60ish minutes from a big (50K+) town
Click to expand...
I'm on the Illinois/Indiana border and I would say a 50/50 mix of farm and rec ground can be around 6,000 an acre for a large parcel (+100 acres)
More farmland=higher cost.

Rolling ground with woods can be in the $2500ish area and straight farmland can be well over 7500+

Granted these are market prices and a deal can be had if you do a private sale.
 
TanTJJim said:
Here's what I remember leading up to the 2008 housing crash, we'll see if history repeats.

1. The housing market literally went insane, prices were through the roof, balloon and interest only mortgages were the norm, etc. (Not sure how crazy the mortgage side of things have been recently but the crazy prices have certainly been a thing.)
2. In conjunction with this, spending on toys went crazy (yep, same thing in recent years)
3. Discretionary spending dropped like a rock (I think we're getting close here, which drives the next things)
4. Repos and insurance fraud on "stolen" vehicles went through the roof (I think we'll see this again soon)
5. Job losses started which lead to tons of foreclosures
6. The sheer number of foreclosures caused the housing market to crash


I think we're hovering around step 3 right now. The timeframe from step 3 to 6 last time was maybe 2-3 years.

Perhaps looming war and defense spending will prevent us from getting to step 5, if so I think housing prices will be a soft landing as opposed to the crash from 2008. Time will tell...
Click to expand...
We are at step 4 now.

Since moving here, the small-town credit union has had a couple repos parked at the front corner of their lot. By a couple, I mean 2 or 3 over the course of 4 years.

In August, a boat was parked out there. By mid-September, the boat was gone and there was a Longhorn Laramie Ram 3500 parked there instead. 2 weeks later, the Ram was still there and a GMC Sierra was parked next to it.

That's the same amount of vehicles as the 4 prior years, only over the course of 6 weeks or so. I pass by the CU every morning on my way to the Y, so I'll keep an eye out for more vehicles (I didn't look this morning when I drove past).
 
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Pt_Ranger_v8 said:
What's a "recreational" property go for in those parts?

I'm looking for 2-300 acres, mix of woods/farmland, with water/power available (well preferred), about 60ish minutes from a big (50K+) town
Click to expand...
6k an acre is pretty accurate. Some can still be had for 5k. If there is any tillable on it the price goes up quite a bit.
We still have a few pieces of former Peabody mining ground that comes close to what you’re looking for.
One in particular comes to mind that’s very close to me. It has 3 parcels available. 105 acre, 96 acre, and 37 acre. They are all connected.
The 105 has access to a 15 acre pond, 30 acres of nice woods with ravines and the rest in rolling grassland. It’s listed at $5400 an acre.
The 96 acre one also has access to the 15 acre pond plus has its own smaller pond. Not as much woods on this one. Mostly rolling grasslands.
These are 10 minutes from Terre Haute and an hour from Indy.
 
How many here were old enough to remember the late 80's market crash? That's what my old man keeps comparing this to, more than 2008. The immediately family then was large and diversified, he remembers his cousin having pre-fabbed walled for a condo complex project he was working on in Hampton, NH (dense shitty beach community) and the bottom fell out of the market and he had trailer loads of walls he was giving away. Other stories of contractors and dirt workers going bankrupt overnight and there being repo'd equipment everywhere for pennies on the dollar.

I wasn't bornt yet, so I have no bearings on whether the lead up similarities are true or not.
 
Gravy said:
Worst is someone stuck with a horrible flipper home that's falling apart with no money for repairs. Thos will foreclosure
Click to expand...
There are A LOT of those people.

Housing and housing adjacent industries are already full of people who aren't all that financially savvy and are basically gambling. We've had 10yr of "good times" in the housing market. Good times make it real easy for the idiots. Every worthless piece of shit who could barely hack it as a GC or a real estate agent (both of which are really low bars) or whatever got into house flipping and rental properties. The market was moving up so steadily that these people made money hand over fist despite most of them not being the caliber of person required to manage a McDondalds. And every success story bred more idiots who thought they had what it takes to play flipper-slumlord. Newsflash: anyone with a pulse can play that game and win when times are good.

2nd, 3rd and 4th homes that people bought as flips or bought to rent for a few years before flipping and making the appreciation represent a "too big to ignore" chunk of the market.
 
Roc Doc said:
Same here. I bought my LV house in 1998 with 5% down that I took as a loan from my 401k. Nobody asked me where the money came from, or if I could even fog a mirror. FFW to 2016, and we put down 22% cash, had 60% equity in the Vegas house with a renter, both had FICO's over 800 and I still had to pay PMI. Fuckers. Next house will be a cash purchase.
Click to expand...

Why did they make you pay PMI M? Honestly never heard of that on a 20% down conventional mortgage…
 
Roc Doc said:
I agree.

The last time around Wall Street fucked us all by packaging sub-prime loans multiple times. They made millions upon millions and nobody got called on it, instead we got that fucked up Dodd -Frank bill that screwed people like me with stellar credit and still had to pay PMI. :mad3:
Click to expand...
look into the underlying fractional reserve lending system

if you want to become disappointed in the world
if not, then keep on railing against the surface level, it's good for keeping yourself busy
 
arse_sidewards said:
There are A LOT of those people.

Housing and housing adjacent industries are already full of people who aren't all that financially savvy and are basically gambling. We've had 10yr of "good times" in the housing market. Good times make it real easy for the idiots. Every worthless piece of shit who could barely hack it as a GC or a real estate agent (both of which are really low bars) or whatever got into house flipping and rental properties. The market was moving up so steadily that these people made money hand over fist despite most of them not being the caliber of person required to manage a McDondalds. And every success story bred more idiots who thought they had what it takes to play flipper-slumlord. Newsflash: anyone with a pulse can play that game and win when times are good.

2nd, 3rd and 4th homes that people bought as flips or bought to rent for a few years before flipping and making the appreciation represent a "too big to ignore" chunk of the market.
Click to expand...

Im sure there are plenty of people caught holding the bag but if its any indicator of anything across the board a large majority of houses recently sold in my old neighborhood where scooped up by large investment companies looking to rent that probably dont give a squirt of piss necessarily about flipping anytime soon and have the capital to insulate themselves from market turmoil that is hell on average joe doing a flip shuffle.
 
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