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Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

Mikel said:
I constantly hear that there is a housing shortage.

My contention is that so many years of very cheap money has created its own artificial demand, which would likely not exist had interest rates be kept to rational levels in the last 20 years.
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Everything is a shortage, manufactured to drive up prices or drive down costs. Housing? Shortage allows for higher pricing and greater profits. Truck Drivers? Shortage allows for looser regulations to bring in cheaper labor.

(In the latter example that I hear all the time, there are 10 million + CDL holders in the US, yet only 3.5 million jobs that require a CDL... shortage my ass).
 
Mikel said:
I constantly hear that there is a housing shortage.

My contention is that so many years of very cheap money has created its own artificial demand, which would likely not exist had interest rates be kept to rational levels in the last 20 years.
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well yeah
everything that gets easy loans is hit by this
real estate, schooling, cars, boats, assorted recreational shit
 
DRTDEVL said:
Everything is a shortage, manufactured to drive up prices or drive down costs. Housing? Shortage allows for higher pricing and greater profits. Truck Drivers? Shortage allows for looser regulations to bring in cheaper labor.
(In the latter example that I hear all the time, there are 10 million + CDL holders in the US, yet only 3.5 million jobs that require a CDL... shortage my ass).
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cart before the donkey
shortage is because money is issued (they don't even bother printing it when it is loans) without any backing

if the money had backing it'd be limited in its issuance to what assets are in existence
we've got more numbers on our ledger than assets to be bought by those numbers, so of course there's gonna be less assets around to buy with the newly issued credit
 
Roc Doc said:
I agree.

The last time around Wall Street fucked us all by packaging sub-prime loans multiple times. They made millions upon millions and nobody got called on it, instead we got that fucked up Dodd -Frank bill that screwed people like me with stellar credit and still had to pay PMI. :mad3:
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Obama forced the banks to loan money to people that would never qualify(because that's racist)which is why the .gov had to bail the banks out.
The banks did take full advantage of the opportunity(unintended consequences) and loaned money as fast as they could.

And let's not forgot ACORN Barack's buddy William Ayers
"Agitators, including Barack Obama with ACORN, filed complaints of non-compliance and lawsuits against banks that adhered to safe loan policies. The banks caved. Credit standards were lowered. GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) were instructed by the Clinton administration to increase the percentage of risky loans in their portfolios."

Why it truly is Barack Obama's subprime mortgage mess | Gilroy Dispatch | Gilroy, California

Home of the Gilroy Dispatch
gilroydispatch.com gilroydispatch.com
 
Mr.Ratbastard said:
Obama forced the banks to loan money to people that would never qualify(because that's racist)which is why the .gov had to bail the banks out.
The banks did take full advantage of the opportunity(unintended consequences) and loaned money as fast as they could.

And let's not forgot ACORN Barack's buddy William Ayers
"Agitators, including Barack Obama with ACORN, filed complaints of non-compliance and lawsuits against banks that adhered to safe loan policies. The banks caved. Credit standards were lowered. GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) were instructed by the Clinton administration to increase the percentage of risky loans in their portfolios."

Why it truly is Barack Obama's subprime mortgage mess | Gilroy Dispatch | Gilroy, California

Home of the Gilroy Dispatch
gilroydispatch.com gilroydispatch.com
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Only problem with your assertation is that the crash occurred five years before the Obama administration loosened credit rules.:homer:
 
Regarding the point of this post, I have noticed for sale signs going up and staying up in the last month or so. Hadn't seen a realtor sign in a few years, now there 3 on my commute to work and they've been there for weeks now. I'd guess the bubble is getting thin.
 
Mikel said:
I constantly hear that there is a housing shortage.

My contention is that so many years of very cheap money has created its own artificial demand, which would likely not exist had interest rates be kept to rational levels in the last 20 years.
Click to expand...
For sure. The unsustainability of that cheap money was the modern equivalent of bread and circuses.
 
DRTDEVL said:
We are at step 4 now.
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I've seen some early signs here too. A month ago was the first time I ran across a newish vehicle shot up while out wheeling. Around 2008 there'd be at least 5 burnt/shot up vehicles out there. If it starts creeping back up to those numbers again I'll start getting more concerned.
 
larboc said:
Regarding the point of this post, I have noticed for sale signs going up and staying up in the last month or so. Hadn't seen a realtor sign in a few years, now there 3 on my commute to work and they've been there for weeks now. I'd guess the bubble is getting thin.
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i dont think we are going to get a bubble in the housing sector, maybe in vehicles, boats, motorhomes, etc. as mentioned there are a lot of people with really cheap loans and they know they better keep them.

increased interest rates have stopped most of the movement and drive for new housing, in 08 the money was flowing and the multiple houses is what drove us off the cliff.
 
DRTDEVL said:
Only problem with your assertation is that the crash occurred five years before the Obama administration loosened credit rules.
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Not exactly...(yes my first link was 2013) Do you think the banks just decided to start handing out shitty loans one day not caring if it bankrupted them?

"It started with the CRA which was exploited by Obama and Ayers then by the banks because they were now backed by the .gov
The CRA increased the oversight of financial institutions and empowered organizations such as the Association of Community Organizers for Reform Now (ACORN). Obama's work as a community organizer included working as ACORN's attorney suing banks in Illinois.

Obama was on the team suing Citibank. The class action lawsuit charged that "applications were rejected because of their race or color, or because of the racial composition of the neighborhood in which their property was located." The plaintiff in the case had been "denied because of delinquent credit obligations and other adverse credit." The suit charged that the denial was motivated by discrimination.


It is now claimed that the suit sought to end redlining, the discriminatory practice of refusing to write mortgages in minority neighborhoods. But the fact is that Citibank approved 51% of the loans in these neighborhoods.

Citibank settled the case. Part of it included "organizing a lending consortium to assist low to moderate income loan applicants in obtaining mortgages."

Since then, about 1 in 4 of the nearly 200 plaintiffs has declared bankruptcy, about the same rate as subprime mortgage default. You decide if the discrimination was racial or creditworthiness.

In the last election campaign, it was vehemently denied that Obama had been an ACORN trainer until the New York Times uncovered records demonstrating he was.

Andrew Cuomo was the assistant secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and then secretary under President Bill Clinton from 1993 through 2001. Cuomo created 800 new HUD employees who were paid as much as $100,000 to fight against abolition of the agency. These community builders, as they were called, worked with local groups to lobby against tax cuts and to aid Democratic candidates.

Under Cuomo's leadership in 1998, HUD forced banks in Texas to lend $2.1 billion in affirmative action loans with a higher risk and higher default rate.

President Clinton touted these achievements. In 1998 he boasted, "In the 20-year history of the Community Investment Act, 85 percent-plus the money loaned out under it to poor inner-city neighborhoods has been loaned in the five years since I've been president."

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were on the path to disaster. Now Obama blames deregulation under the Bush administration for the financial meltdown, but there was none.

After Clinton, George W. Bush and Republicans tried to tighten up lending standards for which they were demonized by the Democrats. These efforts were pushed unsuccessfully throughout the Bush administration starting in April 2001.

Ranking Democrats Barney Frank and Charles Schumer led their party to block these efforts in the fall of 2003. Frank made light of Republican concerns. He said, "I think we see entities that are fundamentally sound financially and withstand some of the disaster scenarios. And even if there were a problem, the federal government doesn't bail them out. But the more pressure there is there, then the less we see in terms of affordable housing."

Even Clinton admitted, "The responsibility the Democrats do have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was president to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

People mistake banking actions taken in concert with politicians as the free market. The worst the truly free market can do is go bankrupt with no public bailout.

But in 1999, Democrats led by President Clinton and Republicans led by Sen. Phil Gramm repealed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. Glass-Steagall had kept regulation and FDIC insurance quarantined to a small part of the financial markets.

Democrats agreed to support the bill only after strengthening provisions of the anti-redlining CRA

Repealing Glass-Steagall removed the barriers between traditional and investment banking, placing everything under congressional rules and regulations. Ron Paul voted against the repeal because it included taxpayer backing of wild-bet derivatives.

Without Glass-Steagall quarantining traditional banking, the government incentives and rules were expanded and spread to the entire financial system. To quote Paul, "My main reasons for voting against this bill are the expansion of the taxpayer liability and the introduction of even more regulations. The entire multi-hundred page S. 900 that reregulates rather than deregulates the financial sector could be replaced with a simple one-page bill."

Banks normally loan money between themselves as needed by providing mortgages and other capital as collateral. Part of the financial meltdown was the inability of banks to determine the validity of another bank's collateral. As a result, normal day-to-day short-term loan transactions ceased and the velocity of money went to zero.

The crash in the money supply caused the value of money to spike. No one wanted barrels of oil or shares of stock. The stock market lost half its value as money doubled in value. A barrel of oil dropped from $140 to $32. The first bailout was passed on a bipartisan basis to solve this problem in the credit markets. Although I disagree, many claimed this first bailout was necessary. Subsequent bailouts were used for very different partisan purposes. Little justification can be made for them.

The only thing worse than Big Government acting on its own is Big Government acting with crony capitalism to override the consequences of the free market. I've added links to the online version of this article at MarottaOnMoney.com with links that support this conclusion: Well-intentioned legislative efforts can cause massive harm. And the greater their scope, the greater the harm."
 
larboc said:
Regarding the point of this post, I have noticed for sale signs going up and staying up in the last month or so. Hadn't seen a realtor sign in a few years, now there 3 on my commute to work and they've been there for weeks now. I'd guess the bubble is getting thin.
Click to expand...
 
Predictions on how high interest rates will go and when will we see (if ever) under 5 percent rates again?
 
For now the set of crutches holding the market up under the high interest rates is the cost of materials (inflation) is still going up. Therefore, it takes that 8% "today" or even more to build said house that was built "yesterday" with 5-6%. It's actually the developers and builders who are taking the losses right now with their older contracts.

Until inflation is under control and starts to cool unfortunately people are still going to purchase homes at whatever rate they can get. It still makes sense for now. Plus the inventories are still very low. It's all a time game that nobody can predict. But it's not going to be "tomorrow". Or any time way too soon. But it is looking more like 2024 the way things are going for being the year to take that dump.

A house way back behind my shop being an old 50's family clubhouse / 3 room block house on slab (1br / 1ba / and 1 big room that is everything else) went under contract for $170k in 2 hours last week. It has a tad over 3 acres but it is in an extreme environmental area where it can never be added onto. But I didn't even have time to throw in my $80k bid when I heard it went up for sale.:homer: Still yet I was pointed out by a contractor. Calculate avg. $20k/acre and the price to build it. Then factor in the time it takes and what all is involved now days and they are still coming out even.
 
Here4memes said:
For now the set of crutches holding the market up under the high interest rates is the cost of materials (inflation) is still going up. Therefore, it takes that 8% "today" or even more to build said house that was built "yesterday" with 5-6%. It's actually the developers and builders who are taking the losses right now with their older contracts.

Until inflation is under control and starts to cool unfortunately people are still going to purchase homes at whatever rate they can get. It still makes sense for now. Plus the inventories are still very low. It's all a time game that nobody can predict. But it's not going to be "tomorrow". Or any time way too soon. But it is looking more like 2024 the way things are going for being the year to take that dump.

A house way back behind my shop being an old 50's family clubhouse / 3 room block house on slab (1br / 1ba / and 1 big room that is everything else) went under contract for $170k in 2 hours last week. It has a tad over 3 acres but it is in an extreme environmental area where it can never be added onto. But I didn't even have time to throw in my $80k bid when I heard it went up for sale.:homer: Still yet I was pointed out by a contractor. Calculate avg. $20k/acre and the price to build it. Then factor in the time it takes and what all is involved now days and they are still coming out even.
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Because it's been so long since the herd has been culled your average developer/contractor is a complete moron running a ship that hemorrhages money. Deposit from one job buys the material for the prior job, shit like that. Over time a lot of those guys are gonna (rightfully) get fucked out of business as rates on lending plus inflation on materials make their grift untenable. Machines get repo'd. Suppliers cut off relationship because of chronic late payment. Business grinds to a halt. The people who are left standing will be few ones who's businesses were built on sounder economic. And there's only so many of them and they'll have more work than they know what to do with so every garbage property won't be getting bid up by shysters.
 
Animalmother said:
Predictions on how high interest rates will go and when will we see (if ever) under 5 percent rates again?
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Some of the developers we work with are expecting rates to peak by 1st quarter '24 and start dropping throughout '24. They don't think they will peak much higher than they are now.

I predict 5% rates are back in '25.
 
Animalmother said:
Predictions on how high interest rates will go and when will we see (if ever) under 5 percent rates again?
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With the way inflation isnt being curbed, 2025 at the earliest imo. We were supposed to be seeing near 5% this winter per last springs predictions, but the economy is just chugging along. I would say we settle into a 5-6% range in 2025 assuming the economy softens.
 
Alpine4x4 said:
With the way inflation isnt being curbed, 2025 at the earliest imo. We were supposed to be seeing near 5% this winter per last springs predictions, but the economy is just chugging along. I would say we settle into a 5-6% range in 2025 assuming the economy softens.
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interest, not inflation
 
[486] said:
fuck I hope not
just means they're flooding the market with fake money again
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I did some poking around as nothing made sense regard mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates vs anything else (such as car loans’ stats, bankers collapsing, bankers abruptly stopped and exited financing cars in some regions, tightening on requirements, increasing rejection rates on borrower applications, oh and these house for sale sitting on the market longer and longer!!!)

Delinquency & foreclosure rates tanked at covid outbreak, as we all are familiar about and why it happened. Forbearances, moratoriums, etc…

Ever since #s haven’t recovered to ‘normal’ rate despite after the plannedemic ‘officially’ ended. A big red flag.

So, I found out they created all kinds of shit to basically keep the housing market from collapsing. Good intentions via keep people in their homes but at the same time IMHO homeowners shouldn’t get handouts via Homeowner Assistance Fund.

I think we’re in for a long, rough ride once this unsustainable BS comes to an end.


  • The Homeowner Assistance Fund has assisted nearly 400,000 homeowners at risk of foreclosure. Through Q2 2023, the state, territorial, and Tribal recipients of HAF awards have expended over $5.5 billion to assist homeowners, a 28% increase from Q1 2023. In total, more than half of all funds available through the HAF recipients’ programs have now been spent. The data also shows HAF recipients continue to reach a higher proportion of economically vulnerable and traditionally underserved homeowners than previous federal mortgage assistance efforts. As of Q2, 50% of HAF assistance was delivered to very low-income homeowners. 35% of homeowners assisted self-identified as Black, 18% self-identified as Latino, and 59% self-identified as female.
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www.consumerfinance.gov

Using the Homeowner Assistance Fund program to help borrowers prevent foreclosure | Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

The CFPB strongly encourages mortgage servicers to participate in the Homeowner Assistance Fund (HAF) program and work with homeowners to help prevent avoidable foreclosures.
www.consumerfinance.gov www.consumerfinance.gov

As of March 1, 2022, over 768,000 mortgage borrowers remain in active forbearance. Many of these consumers are seriously delinquent and at risk of foreclosure unless they receive loss mitigation assistance from their servicers.
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lovely
people again being rewarded for slurping up the 'free' money that's been thrown on the ground in front of them

TrailTamer said:
I think we’re in for a long, rough ride once this unsustainable BS comes to an end.
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Why?
with this passing cycle wealth has again been concentrated in those who buy into and support the system for what it is
at the direct cost of those who do not support money printing and do not participate

Some who participated may lose a li'l hair on the back of their hands, but overall they're still gonna be up relative to those who didn't participate.
"hard times" where the losses and gains are consolidated in the hands of those who can hold on to what's been stolen

The ones with a li'l looser grip will feel a li'l heat, but those who were stolen from have been in the fire this entire time
 
TrailTamer said:
I did some poking around as nothing made sense regard mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates vs anything else (such as car loans’ stats, bankers collapsing, bankers abruptly stopped and exited financing cars in some regions, tightening on requirements, increasing rejection rates on borrower applications, oh and these house for sale sitting on the market longer and longer!!!)

Delinquency & foreclosure rates tanked at covid outbreak, as we all are familiar about and why it happened. Forbearances, moratoriums, etc…

Ever since #s haven’t recovered to ‘normal’ rate despite after the plannedemic ‘officially’ ended. A big red flag.

So, I found out they created all kinds of shit to basically keep the housing market from collapsing. Good intentions via keep people in their homes but at the same time IMHO homeowners shouldn’t get handouts via Homeowner Assistance Fund.

I think we’re in for a long, rough ride once this unsustainable BS comes to an end.



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Yup. That angers me. It just everyone expert those who weren't paying their bills. Pay your bills or fuck you. I didn't be subsidizing your shirt decision making broke ass. :mad3:

I'm not surprised.
 
TrailTamer said:
historically US have not went through something like this before.
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in what way?
the boom-bust cycle has been ordained for a century

it may be more widespread than the previous cycles in recent history, but...
Those who are going to lose their fiefdoms in the near future are entirely deserving of what they did to themselves.
Those who end up on top will cede just enough of their holdings to pacify the rabble below.

Those who didn't play the free money game have already lost the vast majority of what they are going to lose, there is no loophole that allows them to avoid the fallout at this point because everything has already been taken. They're just slowly coming to grips with how much has already been ripped out from under them.
 
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