Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

[Norm]

I think it's going to depend on the fed rate, do they raise until something breaks or raise just enough to cause stagflation like in the 70's.

Only ~4.5% of mortgages are delinquent, about average over the last 50 years. The big difference right know is the amount of .gov debt, that's going to be a really really big problem very soon. We are simply not going to be able to pay the tab on the next too big to fail bailout without printing a bunch more money.

 

[clodhopper]

The big difference right know is the amount of .gov debt, that's going to be a really really big problem very soon. We are simply not going to be able to pay the tab on the next too big to fail bailout without printing a bunch more money.

We have reached the point that the acceleration of printing to simply meet normal obligations is clearly obvious.

 

[Clemson13]

We have reached the point that the acceleration of printing to simply meet normal obligations is clearly obvious.

I really wished I took out a 500k mortgage back in 19 instead of a 275k one. At sub 2.75% it would have helped me through this ridiculous inflation

 

[TrailTamer]

I think it's going to depend on the fed rate, do they raise until something breaks or raise just enough to cause stagflation like in the 70's.

Only ~4.5% of mortgages are delinquent, about average over the last 50 years. The big difference right know is the amount of .gov debt, that's going to be a really really big problem very soon. We are simply not going to be able to pay the tab on the next too big to fail bailout without printing a bunch more money.

this.

I wish I have a better understanding on how the future may look like if we either aggresively pay off or defaults on our gov debt. What will happen if we defaults? Sorta like USSR's dissolution? Or how our life will be alike when a lot of gov services and shits cease to exist to pay off the debt?

I don't know well enough on how $$$ works within the gov and military... how will it be ok to continuing going into debt (basically, spend more than tax revenues) and how far can we go as we either fund or enter wars. Wars aren't cheap!

 

[clodhopper]

this.

I wish I have a better understanding on how the future may look like if we either aggresively pay off or defaults on our gov debt. What will happen if we defaults? Sorta like USSR's dissolution? Or how our life will be alike when a lot of gov services and shits cease to exist to pay off the debt?

I don't know well enough on how $$$ works within the gov and military... how will it be ok to continuing going into debt (basically, spend more than tax revenues) and how far can we go as we either fund or enter wars. Wars aren't cheap!

If you were actually able to answer those questions, you would be extremely wealthy. Everyone wants to know those same things, but unfortunately the crystal ball isnt as clear as one would like.

 

[JR4X]

So this thread is about a year old and the market isn’t getting any better. It’s time for me make some kind of move. Because of high interest rates inventory on the market is crazy low.

 

[[486]]

So this thread is about a year old and the market isn’t getting any better. It’s time for me make some kind of move. Because of high interest rates inventory on the market is crazy low.

pretty much how it works
"it'll get better" of course it won't, waiting doesn't fix thievery

Remember the benefits to mobile housing solutions.
Shitty depreciated pole shed and a nice RV beats the fuck out of dethmachine's concrete shop building and nice house when it comes time to get the fuck outta dodge

 

[BigBurt]

Is there any podcast or anything that talked in depth about the reality and the effects of the stimulus printing? Like where it went and how fast it got into the hands of Walmart and Amazon, what the average person did with it etc? For some of the above questions it seems you could make some pretty fair assumptions. One of them being that the next time there is trouble the government will print more money because that’s the only tool they have and can use. We will devalue our currency and this:

I really wished I took out a 500k mortgage back in 19 instead of a 275k one. At sub 2.75% it would have helped me through this ridiculous inflation

Seems like a great hedge, especially when you realize the penalty for defaulting is to just file bankruptcy.

 

[Projectjunkie]

So this thread is about a year old and the market isn’t getting any better. It’s time for me make some kind of move. Because of high interest rates inventory on the market is crazy low.

I'd wait, in a way I am
This year parallels 2008 in many many ways, interest rates jacked in summer 23, and summer 2007. New subdivision development hit a wall in summer 2007 and summer 23, I was on the ground reparing equipment both times, it went from, "I don't fucking care if there's a goddamn flood, cut 3 holes in a black trash bag for a poncho" and "drag your fucking truck with a dozer" to "I think it might rain this week, you can take some days off"

We went from hearing framing crew on every Saturday and some Sundays to none.

Both election years. Election years rarely have a crash or admitted recession, probably a combination of consumer optimism that things are gonna be great when their guy gets in, and rich banker assholes keeping things just juiced enough that we don't get any Ron Paul type candidates that will call a spade a spade.

Iirc 2011 was the bottom of the housing market, that's a 4 year lag behind interest rate increases

I'd wait it out a littler longer if you can, it'd suck to be 150k upside-down on something, and be unable to refinance at the lower rates that come after rate hikes....

Putting my money where my mouth is, I can pay off the new place with the sale of the old place, but sitting on the cash to see what happens in 12mo while making payments



Imo there's going to be a recession, institutional buyers will scoop up houses for rentals, the only deals will be really fucked up houses needing a ton of sweat equity making them not pencil out for Blackrock

To "fix the recession" the powers what be will print the usd to failure, but that's 5-8 years away

 

[Provience]

Inflation continuing dies nit align with stock market shitting or home values dropping.


Inflation is what's kept those raw numbers so high for both of those. We've dropped at least 15% this past year, but the numbers are raw still the same.....you just feel it different. We're it not for Inflation, the market and houses would've already crashed in raw numbers.


Don't miss the crash because you want a raw fiat number to hit

End of June 2023, buy bitcoin, gold, houses, stock markets....only lower since then was holding cash

 

[Projectjunkie]

Is there any podcast or anything that talked in depth about the reality and the effects of the stimulus printing? Like where it went and how fast it got into the hands of Walmart and Amazon, what the average person did with it etc? For some of the above questions it seems you could make some pretty fair assumptions. One of them being that the next time there is trouble the government will print more money because that’s the only tool they have and can use. We will devalue our currency and this:

Seems like a great hedge, especially when you realize the penalty for defaulting is to just file bankruptcy.

There's been many articles on zero hedge about it, none that stick out in particular

"New billionaires covid" search, would tell you who the big winners were

"Household savings rate" "credit card usage trends " etc

But I think it's pretty safe to say that hot money fueled the party like tequila and now we have a queasy feeling and the puke is gonna happen.

I stopped by an acquaintances transmission shop when the stimulus checks were getting sent, he was up to his eyes in work, all the people that had been trying to save up for a 2500 transmission all of a sudden had the money. Actually a pretty good use of the funds.

But if he went and took out loans to expand his shop, he may be fucked when the party is over. If he over hired, he can lay off, but if his guys all took on alumaduty and maxam boat loans, they're fucked too.


From my stomping grounds since the 80s, I've got a pretty good idea on the areas economics, solid middle class, mostly clean 4 year old cars, with 3% hammered dog shit on one end of the curve, and 3% brand new high end on the other, either bmw with paper plates or lifted denali type shit.
Starting about 2020 there were no more beaters on the road, no hoods up, no bald tires in the parking lot, no tow trucks, no tape holding up windows, no mirrors hanging from wires, that shit was GONE.

It's back

Now hiring signs are disappearing

In spring of 21 I called 8 concrete guys to get a quote, couldn't get calls back, couldn't get them to show up to quote. One guy said he would, then called 30 min late, and stated asking me what size I wanted, how flat the ground was, and how solid the ground was

I had some work done 2 weeks ago, everybody called back, everybody wanted to quote it, guys that had quoted were sending me texts "hey, I thought maybe I'd missed your call"



Imo we're at that point where you leaned too far back in your chair to save it, but haven't fallen yet

 

[WTF?]

So this thread is about a year old and the market isn’t getting any better. It’s time for me make some kind of move. Because of high interest rates inventory on the market is crazy low.

Are you looking for acreage/ something specific / unique, or just a run of the mill house on 1acre with a 3 car garage?

 

[RusM]

Are you looking for acreage/ something specific / unique, or just a run of the mill house on 1acre with a 3 car garage?

Where's that the common option?

 

[WTF?]

:"RusM, post:1694750, member: 812"]
Where's that the common option?

this is a pretty common cookie cutter home style for new builds that was generally what I had in mind;
( it took 3 months on the market to go under contract in op’s market)

10 Road 3778, Farmington, NM 87401 | Zillow

10 Road 3778, Farmington NM, is a Single Family home that contains 2352 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $524,500, which has decreased by $5,339 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

They build them dozens at a time in many markets;

Back in op’s area,
this with 30x50 took 2 months to go under contract;

29 Road 3791, Farmington, NM 87401 | Zillow

29 Road 3791, Farmington NM, is a Single Family home that contains 2453 sq ft and was built in 2011.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $549,600, which has decreased by $5,294 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

This is still available and has been listed for 4 months;

602 N Church St, Bloomfield, NM 87413 | Zillow

602 N Church St, Bloomfield NM, is a Single Family home that contains 2060 sq ft and was built in 1989.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $433,400, which has decreased by $1,842 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

 

[JR4X]

Are you looking for acreage/ something specific / unique, or just a run of the mill house on 1acre with a 3 car garage?

My requirements are in this order

Under $350K
County (outside city limits)
No HOA No covenants
Space to park and store vehicles trailers tractors etc
Year round trailer access Ingres egress
Water I don’t have to haul
200 amp electrical service to the pole at least
House that even if needs work, can be lived in
Space for a shop if it doesn’t already have a shop

Looked at a place last night to get a base line at what is on the market and in my price range. As advertised: 2.2 acres. 3 bed 2 bath Double wide house on a real foundation with attached garage . RV spot with full hookup. 30x40 shop with 12 foot walls. a big car port. Several extra sheds buildings etc. Solar setup that’s netting the current owner avg $56 a month check from the electric utility. Good water. Butts up to 65,000 acres of Blm land.

Reality on arrival. Shop is a piece of shit cheap building with only half a cement floor poured. Not weather tight, uninsulated. House isn’t terrible. Only half of the 2.2 acres is usable because half of it is a hill side. Shoddy work over the years by elderly man with lots of time and no money. Propane tank. Neighboring properties absolutely disgusting trashy even to a guy like me.

 

[WTF?]

My requirements are in this order

Under $350K
County (outside city limits)
No HOA No covenants
Space to park and store vehicles trailers tractors etc
Year round trailer access Ingres egress
Water I don’t have to haul
200 amp electrical service to the pole at least
House that even if needs work, can be lived in
Space for a shop if it doesn’t already have a shop

Yeah, that’s a pretty specific niche property, and under 350k price range is probably a dogfight between you and dozens of other people looking for homes without unlimited budgets.

Around me, 2 unrestricted acres with a liveable house under 400k will have horse people fighting over it in a bidding war on the first weekend it’s listed. I just watched a terrible lipstick flip up the street sell for an ungodly amount of money because it was horse friendly.
The house has termites, drainage issues, septic issues, rot that was painted over, and a 1950’s fuse panel for the interior, and the miniature horse dummies who bought it and discovering these issues 1 by 1 are tickled to death with it.

 

[rockota]

So this thread is about a year old and the market isn’t getting any better. It’s time for me make some kind of move. Because of high interest rates inventory on the market is crazy low.

Some places are seeing prices drop drastically… mid-mn and mid-wi, for example… but other places seem completely unaffected by rates

 

[east_beast]

My requirements are in this order

Under $350K
County (outside city limits)
No HOA No covenants
Space to park and store vehicles trailers tractors etc
Year round trailer access Ingres egress
Water I don’t have to haul
200 amp electrical service to the pole at least
House that even if needs work, can be lived in
Space for a shop if it doesn’t already have a shop

Looked at a place last night to get a base line at what is on the market and in my price range. As advertised: 2.2 acres. 3 bed 2 bath Double wide house on a real foundation with attached garage . RV spot with full hookup. 30x40 shop with 12 foot walls. a big car port. Several extra sheds buildings etc. Solar setup that’s netting the current owner avg $56 a month check from the electric utility. Good water. Butts up to 65,000 acres of Blm land.

Reality on arrival. Shop is a piece of shit cheap building with only half a cement floor poured. Not weather tight, uninsulated. House isn’t terrible. Only half of the 2.2 acres is usable because half of it is a hill side. Shoddy work over the years by elderly man with lots of time and no money. Propane tank. Neighboring properties absolutely disgusting trashy even to a guy like me.

That's a lot of boxes to check.

 

[Projectjunkie]

My requirements are in this order

Under $350K
County (outside city limits)
No HOA No covenants
Space to park and store vehicles trailers tractors etc
Year round trailer access Ingres egress
Water I don’t have to haul
200 amp electrical service to the pole at least
House that even if needs work, can be lived in
Space for a shop if it doesn’t already have a shop

Looked at a place last night to get a base line at what is on the market and in my price range. As advertised: 2.2 acres. 3 bed 2 bath Double wide house on a real foundation with attached garage . RV spot with full hookup. 30x40 shop with 12 foot walls. a big car port. Several extra sheds buildings etc. Solar setup that’s netting the current owner avg $56 a month check from the electric utility. Good water. Butts up to 65,000 acres of Blm land.

Reality on arrival. Shop is a piece of shit cheap building with only half a cement floor poured. Not weather tight, uninsulated. House isn’t terrible. Only half of the 2.2 acres is usable because half of it is a hill side. Shoddy work over the years by elderly man with lots of time and no money. Propane tank. Neighboring properties absolutely disgusting trashy even to a guy like me.

I know renting and waiting sucks, but time is on your side, the market is trending down. Get your credit polished up, get your down payment money saved, keep your things palletized or crated or whatever so you can jump when the time is right


The other potential option, at this stage of the game, is to build, or get a land home package with a manufactured home. It's not great, because housing values can still fall, but land drops off hard when housing drops a little, builders are hungry, and steel building companies are going to be hungry, the manufactured homes that are already built are not selling, 3 years ago I was looking at them, $100sqft 10mo lead time, 20k in setup and delivery. Today they are all flagged with "special! " "closeout"

Also look for the lot with utilities, a burned house, a tear down singlewide

That may be a possible way to get you into a 1500sqft brand new home on an acre with a 30x40 shop, you get to pick out most of the layout and parking


Are you above living in a 5th wheel parked next to a shop? For a year while your house is getting built? Indefinitely while living debt free?

Not too funky mobile on 5 acres

Holy shit, I don't know how ghetto this area is, but here's a little lot with a 20x50 building on it. I'm sure the mobile smells like leather and cigarettes, but give it a year and you can buy a super cute singlewide for 70k, or spend 30k and reno that thing into some influencer grade "modest bungalow"

 

[JR4X]

That's a lot of boxes to check.

I’m a tough bitch to please. But around here it’s not as tough as you’d think. Last year I wasn’t eligible or ready to buy due to divorce because that’s how fucking dumb I am. Sold my badass place in Fruita Colorado in 2019 to be with a woman. Now I’m recovering from being in love. I’ve got nothing but time sort of. My rental contract is up in July so I ether need to be moved by then or buckle in for another year of living in spot I hate more every day.

If it makes more sense to wait I can. I just hate living in the rental I live in now. Nice house but not working for my situation.

I can do without a shop because my dads shop is as good as mine. Might sound weird to some but my dad’s favorite thing in the world, is having his sons working on stuff in his shop. My race cars live there full time. But it would be nice to have my own space to work on my own stuff outside my house when I don’t need access to the lathes and press and big tools he has that I don’t.

 

[JR4X]

I know renting and waiting sucks, but time is on your side, the market is trending down. Get your credit polished up, get your down payment money saved, keep your things palletized or crated or whatever so you can jump when the time is right


The other potential option, at this stage of the game, is to build, or get a land home package with a manufactured home. It's not great, because housing values can still fall, but land drops off hard when housing drops a little, builders are hungry, and steel building companies are going to be hungry, the manufactured homes that are already built are not selling, 3 years ago I was looking at them, $100sqft 10mo lead time, 20k in setup and delivery. Today they are all flagged with "special! " "closeout"

Also look for the lot with utilities, a burned house, a tear down singlewide

That may be a possible way to get you into a 1500sqft brand new home on an acre with a 30x40 shop, you get to pick out most of the layout and parking


Are you above living in a 5th wheel parked next to a shop? For a year while your house is getting built? Indefinitely while living debt free?

Not too funky mobile on 5 acres



Holy shit, I don't know how ghetto this area is, but here's a little lot with a 20x50 building on it. I'm sure the mobile smells like leather and cigarettes, but give it a year and you can buy a super cute singlewide for 70k, or spend 30k and reno that thing into some influencer grade "modest bungalow"

I’m actually in a pretty good position right now. If I just wanted place of my own Modular’s on space are a dime a dozen (here) and for half of what im pre approved for and feel like I can afford. Because I’ve got fairly little pressure I’ve got to time to be picky and shop around

 

[BigBurt]

There's been many articles on zero hedge about it, none that stick out in particular

"New billionaires covid" search, would tell you who the big winners were

"Household savings rate" "credit card usage trends " etc

But I think it's pretty safe to say that hot money fueled the party like tequila and now we have a queasy feeling and the puke is gonna happen.

I stopped by an acquaintances transmission shop when the stimulus checks were getting sent, he was up to his eyes in work, all the people that had been trying to save up for a 2500 transmission all of a sudden had the money. Actually a pretty good use of the funds.

But if he went and took out loans to expand his shop, he may be fucked when the party is over. If he over hired, he can lay off, but if his guys all took on alumaduty and maxam boat loans, they're fucked too.


From my stomping grounds since the 80s, I've got a pretty good idea on the areas economics, solid middle class, mostly clean 4 year old cars, with 3% hammered dog shit on one end of the curve, and 3% brand new high end on the other, either bmw with paper plates or lifted denali type shit.
Starting about 2020 there were no more beaters on the road, no hoods up, no bald tires in the parking lot, no tow trucks, no tape holding up windows, no mirrors hanging from wires, that shit was GONE.

It's back

Now hiring signs are disappearing

In spring of 21 I called 8 concrete guys to get a quote, couldn't get calls back, couldn't get them to show up to quote. One guy said he would, then called 30 min late, and stated asking me what size I wanted, how flat the ground was, and how solid the ground was

I had some work done 2 weeks ago, everybody called back, everybody wanted to quote it, guys that had quoted were sending me texts "hey, I thought maybe I'd missed your call"



Imo we're at that point where you leaned too far back in your chair to save it, but haven't fallen yet

Equipment and trucks have dropped in price here lately. About a year ago the scarcity eased and you could actually get stuff and not pay with your first born. Have been looking for a triaxle and they’ve dropped from $180k for decent used to $130-150 for same truck. State work is slowing down and some of it has actually been put on hold.

. Might sound weird to some but my dad’s favorite thing in the world, is having his sons working on stuff in his shop. My race cars live there full time. But it would be nice to have my own space to work on my own stuff outside my house when I don’t need access to the lathes and press and big tools he has that I don’t.

uhmm weird? That’s awesome man! Lol I wish my dad and I got along like that or he cared about any of my projects. Maybe you hate your situation without having your own shop but sounds like a blessing in quite a few ways and sounds like you have freedom and independence. Looking back on life when I was in similar spots I think I was most happy, except if I couldn’t tinker then I became hugely miserable

 

[WTF?]

Looked at a place last night to get a base line at what is on the market and in my price range. As advertised: 2.2 acres. 3 bed 2 bath Double wide house on a real foundation with attached garage . RV spot with full hookup. 30x40 shop with 12 foot walls. a big car port. Several extra sheds buildings etc. Solar setup that’s netting the current owner avg $56 a month check from the electric utility. Good water. Butts up to 65,000 acres of Blm land.

Reality on arrival. Shop is a piece of shit cheap building with only half a cement floor poured. Not weather tight, uninsulated. House isn’t terrible. Only half of the 2.2 acres is usable because half of it is a hill side. Shoddy work over the years by elderly man with lots of time and no money. Propane tank. Neighboring properties absolutely disgusting trashy even to a guy like me.

The reality doesn’t sound that terrible- seems like good bones to build out and up fit over time as you live in it and make it yours.
How far under budget could it be bought?

No floor in the cheap uninsulated shop beats no shop at all, right?

The shoddy old man work describes my current homestead pretty vividly. I replace and un fawk systems as they break/fail/ need to be expanded/ improved.

Living in a non HOA Doublewide area without enough land that you can’t see your neighbors from the middle of it, is always gonna be a gamble and no guarantees it won’t get junked up in the future. And on the flip side if it’s too nice around there you run the risk of the neighborhood hating you for moving in with race trailers and junking up the place’

Maybe Build a fence/ park a dry van/ sea can on the sight lines you don’t want to see.

 

[east_beast]

I’m a tough bitch to please. But around here it’s not as tough as you’d think. Last year I wasn’t eligible or ready to buy due to divorce because that’s how fucking dumb I am. Sold my badass place in Fruita Colorado in 2019 to be with a woman. Now I’m recovering from being in love. I’ve got nothing but time sort of. My rental contract is up in July so I ether need to be moved by then or buckle in for another year of living in spot I hate more every day.

If it makes more sense to wait I can. I just hate living in the rental I live in now. Nice house but not working for my situation.

I can do without a shop because my dads shop is as good as mine. Might sound weird to some but my dad’s favorite thing in the world, is having his sons working on stuff in his shop. My race cars live there full time. But it would be nice to have my own space to work on my own stuff outside my house when I don’t need access to the lathes and press and big tools he has that I don’t.

Whether it's better to wait or not is anyone's guess. You can always refinance if/when rates drop.

Keep working on your shit at your dad's. He won't be around forever and you'll miss it.

 

[Lil'John]

That's a lot of boxes to check.

Not that hard. I did that in Calif with only 'snow' issue that isn't that bad most times(a few storms that keeps snow on ground maybe a week at a time). OTOH, I'm in BFE with 15 min ride to town and the house was a mild fixer upper.

 

[Projectjunkie]

Whether it's better to wait or not is anyone's guess. You can always refinance if/when rates drop.

I didn't thumbs up this part, if you put 30k down on a 350k house, financed at 7.5% and the value drops to 275k a year later, and interest rates drop to 4%, you can't refinance if you're under water.

It's a shitty situation

Keep working on your shit at your dad's. He won't be around forever and you'll miss it.

I thumbs upped this part

 

[WaterH]

I didn't thumbs up this part, if you put 30k down on a 350k house, financed at 7.5% and the value drops to 275k a year later, and interest rates drop to 4%, you can't refinance if you're under water.

It's a shitty situation

Very rare for interest rates to drop and housing prices drop at the same time. If the rates drop, there’s lots of new people in the market driving prices up.

To JR4X, if you are going to stay in that property 7+ years, don’t worry, just buy. I don’t believe there’s been a time in history where property has gone down over 7 years. If you’re not staying 7 years, rent.

I bought a bunch of property in 07-08. In a year, I was underwater bad. I didn’t walk away and it’s all good now.

 

[Ebs]

On a long enough timeline there's never really a bad time to buy real estate.

 

[billybob_81067]

Equipment and trucks have dropped in price here lately.

Where? I'm still seeing basically nothing for sale. If it is for sale it is either giraffe pussy high priced or completely clapped the fuck out. Once in a while you can get lucky at an auction and get something decent cheap if the right people are distracted or not paying attention...

 

[JR4X]

Where? I'm still seeing basically nothing for sale. If it is for sale it is either giraffe pussy high priced or completely clapped the fuck out. Once in a while you can get lucky at an auction and get something decent cheap if the right people are distracted or not paying attention...

Big cities. Everywhere but where we are.

My dads been shopping for used moving vans for a couple years to make a new race trailer toy hauler out of. He picked up this recently certified one with pretty new tires for $10K in Albuquerque a few weeks ago because movers are dying of no work right now apparently. Don’t pay attention to the little truck holding it up currently, that things just a little freebie yard tug not roadworthy day cab