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Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

mobil1syn said:
  • you have to buy a house in your tax bracket in the new location or you will be broke quickly
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Or you do like all the people who need a bullet do and go way below your tax bracket because "city in my tax bracket" to -> "more rural area below my tax bracket" is a lateral move and then complain your ass off and vote for bullshit until you're right back where you started.
 
Fullsize80cherokee said:
It’s not going down again. Blackrock, vanguard, and ect will buy up all the inventory with your own investment money to make sure all upcoming generations get rugged to be lifelong wage slave renters.
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They're buying it all up with your 401k and pension investment money... might be a good time to learn how to move your own money around because these people are using YOUR money to screw YOU.
 
Projectjunkie said:
My thinking on this is that turn key and easy renos will be bought up as rentals, quickly and for too much, the trashed properties won't. Too much money out for too long to be profitable. I want to buy every trashed mobile on an acre, burned houses, shit like that, home sites with utilities, and wait for the next boom
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im curious to see how things shake out in the rental market in california. im sure there were a lot of people who have one or two rentals as a little side hustle who got screwed during 'rona having tenants not having to pay for something like 18months then toss another 12months to deal with the eviction process.
 
TrailTamer said:
TN have the lowest state debt if I remember correctly.

Masshole is #1 highest in state debt

(Per capita)

Edit: Just checked, yep.
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They could take all that weed money and pay off the debt, but what are they doing? They’re spending it on depreciating assets.

It’s the American way.
Every time we increase in efficiency, we upsize whatever, so it consumes just as much as the previous.
 
SLOWPOKE693 said:
But are you really?
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Santa Cruz, CA

vs

Just outside of Nashville, TN

Take a look at this home I found on Realtor.com
2529 Highway 41A S, Shelbyville
$999,000 · 4beds · 3.5baths

apps.realtor.com

2529 Highway 41A S, Shelbyville, TN 37160 | realtor.com®

2529 Highway 41A S, Shelbyville, TN 37160 is for sale. View 25 photos of this 3 bed, 3 bath, 10373 sqft. mobile home with a list price of $999900.
apps.realtor.com apps.realtor.com
 

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How are you people valueing your house in real time to see how much equity you have have lost or if you are "upside down"?
 
TrailTamer said:
Santa Cruz, CA

vs

Just outside of Nashville, TN

Take a look at this home I found on Realtor.com
2529 Highway 41A S, Shelbyville
$999,000 · 4beds · 3.5baths

apps.realtor.com

2529 Highway 41A S, Shelbyville, TN 37160 | realtor.com®

2529 Highway 41A S, Shelbyville, TN 37160 is for sale. View 25 photos of this 3 bed, 3 bath, 10373 sqft. mobile home with a list price of $999900.
apps.realtor.com apps.realtor.com
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to be fair, Shelbyville is basically in Alabama. :flipoff2:
 
Slander said:
How are you people valueing your house in real time to see how much equity you have have lost or if you are "upside down"?
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I imagine if you have a little pink house in a row of little pink houses, checking comps would take 2 minutes

Others might take 10 minutes to see that your zip has dropped 6.3% and do math....
 
JR4X said:
Student loan debt relief just got struck down. And people gotta resume paying their bills.

Could this good news help level out and recorrect the bull shit housing market?
Click to expand...
I wonder did lenders of 2020-2023 homebuyers looked for or ignored them
 
Bump to throw a red flag being in a field that's an early housing market indicator in the #1 housing market area for the past 4-5 years...

I've been denying this was even going to happen up until now. Byt we're finally starting to see a slow down. The smaller developers without a large money stockpile / bank backing is starting to come to us to go back for re-approval to sub-divide larger single family S/D projects down to much smaller amount of lots so that they are not on such a schedule to meet municipality requirements. All happening in just this past month. I suspect the larger developers are next very soon. Just exactly like in early 2007...

I removed my 401k back then to more secure investments just in time too when I saw this and came out smelling like a rose during the recession. I'm about to pull that trigger again. But this time my 401k has not been making me rich anyways but I've at least milked it to be in the positive.


As 486 said, property values stayed the same in 07-08. They just went stale and just took a while for them to catch back up and start going back up again. I expect the same. But I foresee the number of houses for sale will finally cross back over the line of housing demand.

Redfin data has us forecasted to remain in a slower, but upward trend through 2024. And calling for property values to go up by 5.3% by the end of 2023. I'm thiking that's overrated by a good bit. Prices are finally starting to come down too by 1.3% this month. First time in years.
 
[486] said:
the market correction is the inflation
property values aren't likely to go down, what has dropped and will continue to drop is the value of the dollar
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Either property values go down or incomes go up.

One or other need to happen or we’ll be in a stagnation.

Fed interest is up.
 
Here4memes said:
Bump to throw a red flag being in a field that's an early housing market indicator in the #1 housing market area for the past 4-5 years...

I've been denying this was even going to happen up until now. Byt we're finally starting to see a slow down. The smaller developers without a large money stockpile / bank backing is starting to come to us to go back for re-approval to sub-divide larger single family S/D projects down to much smaller amount of lots so that they are not on such a schedule to meet municipality requirements. All happening in just this past month. I suspect the larger developers are next very soon. Just exactly like in early 2007...

I removed my 401k back then to more secure investments just in time too when I saw this and came out smelling like a rose during the recession. I'm about to pull that trigger again. But this time my 401k has not been making me rich anyways but I've at least milked it to be in the positive.


As 486 said, property values stayed the same in 07-08. They just went stale and just took a while for them to catch back up and start going back up again. I expect the same. But I foresee the number of houses for sale will finally cross back over the line of housing demand.

Redfin data has us forecasted to remain in a slower, but upward trend through 2024. And calling for property values to go up by 5.3% by the end of 2023. I'm thiking that's overrated by a good bit. Prices are finally starting to come down too by 1.3% this month. First time in years.
Click to expand...
Everyone thinks they're in the #1 housing market, #1 fastest growing city, etc. like it's some point of reference. Where are you at that you're seeing these changes?
 
Here4memes said:
Bump to throw a red flag being in a field that's an early housing market indicator in the #1 housing market area for the past 4-5 years...

I've been denying this was even going to happen up until now. Byt we're finally starting to see a slow down. The smaller developers without a large money stockpile / bank backing is starting to come to us to go back for re-approval to sub-divide larger single family S/D projects down to much smaller amount of lots so that they are not on such a schedule to meet municipality requirements. All happening in just this past month. I suspect the larger developers are next very soon. Just exactly like in early 2007...

I removed my 401k back then to more secure investments just in time too when I saw this and came out smelling like a rose during the recession. I'm about to pull that trigger again. But this time my 401k has not been making me rich anyways but I've at least milked it to be in the positive.


As 486 said, property values stayed the same in 07-08. They just went stale and just took a while for them to catch back up and start going back up again. I expect the same. But I foresee the number of houses for sale will finally cross back over the line of housing demand.

Redfin data has us forecasted to remain in a slower, but upward trend through 2024. And calling for property values to go up by 5.3% by the end of 2023. I'm thiking that's overrated by a good bit. Prices are finally starting to come down too by 1.3% this month. First time in years.
Click to expand...

What effects could this have on a person wanting to build a house?

Right now the home builders around here are saying the labor cost has gone up due to the free money and will not be going down.

Do you see the labor cost going back down? If it slows down enough?
 
Roktoy829 said:
What effects could this have on a person wanting to build a house?

Right now the home builders around here are saying the labor cost has gone up due to the free money and will not be going down.

Do you see the labor cost going back down? If it slows down enough?
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are you going to take a pay cut when inflation goes down? people are tied to a dollar value for their wages, long term we are kinda screwed by this. plus if a business owners billable number is a % of actual cost he makes more money the higher he can bill guys out at.
 
TrailTamer said:
Either property values go down or incomes go up.
One or other need to happen or we’ll be in a stagnation.
Fed interest is up.
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is production up enough to support the increase in consumption that resulted from artificial "money" being introduced into the market?

just your typical boom-bust cycle, nothing surprising and nothing new

hans-hermann hoppe explains it extremely well here:
https://mises.org/library/economics-and-ethics-private-property-0
the beginning repeats itself a lot, building on concepts with each repetition, so it's a little bit confusing if you don't understand what he's doing going into it, and feel free to drop the book after it starts getting far too esoteric for anyone's mind to comprehend in the second "section"
 
mobil1syn said:
are you going to take a pay cut when inflation goes down? people are tied to a dollar value for their wages, long term we are kinda screwed by this. plus if a business owners billable number is a % of actual cost he makes more money the higher he can bill guys out at.
Click to expand...
An hourly wage cut is unlikely, but there's lots of cuts that can happen fast, OT vanishes, bonuses gone, company truck can't go home anymore, drive your personal to work then dispatch, raises frozen, company puts more of your health insurance burden on you, but they give you 60 days notice, that's nice of them

Then comes the layoffs, you get laid off at $35hr, and next you can find is $27, so you take it, times are tough

That's what it looks like




I do see some "bargains" coming on construction work, the guys not getting OT will do weekend side work now, or the boss might start bidding jobs low just to keep his guys working, or to make some payments to dodge the repo man.
 
Projectjunkie said:
An hourly wage cut is unlikely, but there's lots of cuts that can happen fast, OT vanishes, bonuses gone, company truck can't go home anymore, drive your personal to work then dispatch, raises frozen, company puts more of your health insurance burden on you, but they give you 60 days notice, that's nice of them

Then comes the layoffs, you get laid off at $35hr, and next you can find is $27, so you take it, times are tough

That's what it looks like
Click to expand...

Exactly what happened in 08. During which time, the money prognosticators were in a tizzy over deflation economy.
 
[486] said:
is production up enough to support the increase in consumption that resulted from artificial "money" being introduced into the market?
Click to expand...
No
[486] said:
just your typical boom-bust cycle, nothing surprising and nothing new
Click to expand...
I don’t know why but I have a feeling a stagnation is coming, not just a typical recession.

A stagnation occurs when a recession fail to recover in a reasonable period of time, likely due to my answer up above. Production is not up, so cost on goods remain high (supply vs demand) and high unemployment due to weak employment demand because production can’t ramp up.
 
[486] said:
hans-hermann hoppe explains it extremely well here:
The Economics and Ethics of Private Property | Hans-Hermann Hoppe
the beginning repeats itself a lot, building on concepts with each repetition, so it's a little bit confusing if you don't understand what he's doing going into it, and feel free to drop the book after it starts getting far too esoteric for anyone's mind to comprehend in the second "section"
Click to expand...
I didn’t read before replying. I’ll try find time to read it.

I’m not economy guru but want to try understand it better.
 
Projectjunkie said:
An hourly wage cut is unlikely, but there's lots of cuts that can happen fast, OT vanishes, bonuses gone, company truck can't go home anymore, drive your personal to work then dispatch, raises frozen, company puts more of your health insurance burden on you, but they give you 60 days notice, that's nice of them

Then comes the layoffs, you get laid off at $35hr, and next you can find is $27, so you take it, times are tough

That's what it looks like




I do see some "bargains" coming on construction work, the guys not getting OT will do weekend side work now, or the boss might start bidding jobs low just to keep his guys working, or to make some payments to dodge the repo man.
Click to expand...

clodhopper said:
Exactly what happened in 08. During which time, the money prognosticators were in a tizzy over deflation economy.
Click to expand...
That would be called a recession.
 
TrailTamer said:
I didn’t read before replying. I’ll try find time to read it.

I’m not economy guru but want to try understand it better.
Click to expand...
it's really worthwhile, the most important section is about a hundred cellphone-sized pages worth, but if you can stick it out and you'll certainly find value in it

TrailTamer said:
I don’t know why but I have a feeling a stagnation is coming, not just a typical recession.

A stagnation occurs when a recession fail to recover in a reasonable period of time, likely due to my answer up above. Production is not up, so cost on goods remain high (supply vs demand) and high unemployment due to weak employment demand because production can’t ramp up.
Click to expand...
"a typical recession"
when they give up on printing themselves into wealth, only to try printing themselves out of poverty
yeah it typically 'works' for a few years, especially when alternative currencies are carefully and systematically raped harder than the one they're trying to prop up

but reality always reasserts itself eventually, we just can't consume what hasn't been produced
 
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