Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

[TrailTamer]

Market wont crash.

“2 weeks to flatten the curve”


a housing market crash will not happen overnight.

Don't forget the part where you realized a $130k capital gain and rolled it into your new place, making it cost less than your old place...

not really an issue if planning on to live at/own the new place for a good while.

that "$130k capital gain" came from the low interest rate. That $130k gain is quickly disappearing as the interest rate go up. Again, not an issue as long as you plan to live there for a long time.

What if you NEED to sell the place you just bought for $200k with 2% mortgage interest rate but potential home buyers can only get 8%? $200k at 2% and $100k at 8% have nearly identical monthly payment, hence you will only receive $100k offers.
What do you do? Short sale? Foreclosure? get a 5th job? Epsteined?

In the big picture, interest rate is what driving your housing markets' value AND the demand.
Low interest rate = inflated housing values and high demand which cause shortage of supply
High interest rate = deflated housing values and low demand so there's no issue with supply

Its not black and white but yeah.

 

[crispins]

I can 100% guarantee the market is about to drop.




















I am closing on a home soon and I seem to only buy high and sell low.

 

[YotaAtieToo]

Can barely touch anything here for under 400k anymore.

I bought my place in 09 for 210k. New 3 bed 2 bath range, 2 car garage, 1/2 acre.
Sold it last year for 130k more, prolly closer to 160k more if I had sold it now.

My current place, which is just a 1200sq ft shop on 4.5 acres was almost 300k.

No idea how people are affording these places. Need to be pulling in 50$/hr and up.

I don't know you're area at all. But I wonder if it's the city people's funny money coming in?

You buy a house in the 2010s for $350-450k just about anywhere on the west coast.

Now it's worth $800k-1.2m and you owe $275k or whatever.

They can move to other places and just pay whatever gets it done for whatever they want. I think the only reason thats slowing down is that the interest rate on a $1m mortgage is ridiculous.

 

[rockmup]

New construction here has pumped its brakes by about 40%. Existing homes are still selling well just a little slower

 

[AKnate]

I don't know you're area at all. But I wonder if it's the city people's funny money coming in?

You buy a house in the 2010s for $350-450k just about anywhere on the west coast.

Now it's worth $800k-1.2m and you owe $275k or whatever.

They can move to other places and just pay whatever gets it done for whatever they want. I think the only reason thats slowing down is that the interest rate on a $1m mortgage is ridiculous.

Aside from white collar work, the $$ is in trades.

Figure 400k with minimum down is around $2k a month.

 

[RusM]

$8369/mo is the mortgage for the place that went pending near me recently if it sold for full price....

 

[YotaAtieToo]

Aside from white collar work, the $$ is in trades.

Figure 400k with minimum down is around $2k a month.

Minimum down as in?

Because even if you mean 20%, it will be closer to $3k/ mo

 

[Ummduh]

i think the real problem is that anyone under 4% (i am in this camp) doesnt want to got to a 8% mortgage. there is going to be a long duration of very limited inventory and movement in the market. if there is movement it will be converting the 2% home into a rental giving you 20-50% cash flow depending on the shituation.

That's my plan.

 

[Projectjunkie]

I don't know you're area at all. But I wonder if it's the city people's funny money coming in?

You buy a house in the 2010s for $350-450k just about anywhere on the west coast.

Now it's worth $800k-1.2m and you owe $275k or whatever.

They can move to other places and just pay whatever gets it done for whatever they want. I think the only reason thats slowing down is that the interest rate on a $1m mortgage is ridiculous.

This phenomenon I think will set a bottom line in places Californians like. The nationwide housing market drops 15%.. these coastal people get shaken that their 600k in equity dropped to 400k, they dump it, take the 400k, pay off the credit cards and cars and pay cash for a 300k house in AZ, TX, FL, NV, UT, etc

 

[YotaAtieToo]

This phenomenon I think will set a bottom line in places Californians like. The nationwide housing market drops 15%.. these coastal people get shaken that their 600k in equity dropped to 400k, they dump it, take the 400k, pay off the credit cards and cars and pay cash for a 300k house in AZ, TX, FL, NV, UT, etc

Its possible

I also wonder if there will be a trend of people going back when they start to miss their old salary or Uber eats

 

[Projectjunkie]

Its possible

I also wonder if there will be a trend of people going back when they start to miss their old salary or Uber eats

They'll be priced out, and we'll be stuck with them forfuckingever

 

[Roktoy829]

 

[mobil1syn]

This phenomenon I think will set a bottom line in places Californians like. The nationwide housing market drops 15%.. these coastal people get shaken that their 600k in equity dropped to 400k, they dump it, take the 400k, pay off the credit cards and cars and pay cash for a 300k house in AZ, TX, FL, NV, UT, etc

there is no free lunch. if you suck at personal finance and math you will be broke no matter where you go

i try explaining this to people but they dont get it.

• if houses in an area are cheap, its because wages are low
• if houses are cheap it means property taxes are high
• if there is no income tax, property taxes are even higher
• if you there are high paying jobs, there will be high house prices and traffic
• you have to buy a house in your tax bracket in the new location or you will be broke quickly

 

[Projectjunkie]

there is no free lunch. if you suck at personal finance and math you will be broke no matter where you go

i try explaining this to people but they dont get it.

• if houses in an area are cheap, its because wages are low
• if houses are cheap it means property taxes are high
• if there is no income tax, property taxes are even higher
• if you there are high paying jobs, there will be high house prices and traffic
• you have to buy a house in your tax bracket in the new location or you will be broke quickly

Yup, nobody retires to California with their middle America pension

 

[rockota]

$8369/mo is the mortgage for the place that went pending near me recently if it sold for full price....

holy!
plus taxes and insurance?

I'm doing life wrong...

 

[rockota]

there is no free lunch. if you suck at personal finance and math you will be broke no matter where you go

i try explaining this to people but they dont get it.

• if houses in an area are cheap, its because wages are low
• if houses are cheap it means property taxes are high
• if there is no income tax, property taxes are even higher
• if you there are high paying jobs, there will be high house prices and traffic
• you have to buy a house in your tax bracket in the new location or you will be broke quickly

TN may be the exception to this (though not sure for how long). Property taxes in WI/MN are higher than here, like for like in similar distance from "major" city.

 

[Fullsize80cherokee]

It’s not going down again. Blackrock, vanguard, and ect will buy up all the inventory with your own investment money to make sure all upcoming generations get rugged to be lifelong wage slave renters.

 

[DRTDEVL]

TN may be the exception to this (though not sure for how long). Property taxes in WI/MN are higher than here, like for like in similar distance from "major" city.

Constitutionally limited to 25% of the value for assessment. I loved hearing that excuse from the "leadership" in El Paso, when I calculated that my home, had it been in Nashville instead of El Paso, would have been assessed at less than $800/yr compared to the $3100/yr they were charging me, using the tired excuse of "its because we don't have income taxes."

 

[welndmn]

• if there is no income tax, property taxes are even higher

You are going to hurt all the TX peoples feeling with that one.
They love to tell everyone how they don't have income tax.

 

[mobil1syn]

TN may be the exception to this (though not sure for how long). Property taxes in WI/MN are higher than here, like for like in similar distance from "major" city.

they got to get their money somewhere

 

[posford]

No sales tax, no income tax, $25.34/$1000 tax rate

How does that compare to income tax and sales taxed states?

 

[rockota]

they got to get their money somewhere

TN spends little compared to many other states... Also have a decent sales tax that hovers around 9.25%.

 

[mobil1syn]

You are going to hurt all the TX peoples feeling with that one.
They love to tell everyone how they don't have income tax.

all the time with family and coworkers. for high income earners who keep their property reasonable the math works out, for your average person its a wash in the end

i only know this because of conversations with @bigwoodywag

 

[rockota]

Constitutionally limited to 25% of the value for assessment. I loved hearing that excuse from the "leadership" in El Paso, when I calculated that my home, had it been in Nashville instead of El Paso, would have been assessed at less than $800/yr compared to the $3100/yr they were charging me, using the tired excuse of "its because we don't have income taxes."

they just change the value and ignore law. Happens all the time in this county.

assessor told me that 2024 will be painful for home owners.

 

[rockota]

You are going to hurt all the TX peoples feeling with that one.
They love to tell everyone how they don't have income tax.

It's fun to tell my TX friends/coworkers what I pay in property taxes... they are never happy.

I'd rather have zero property tax and high income tax... At least then, I'd "own" my property.

 

[posford]

It's fun to tell my TX friends/coworkers what I pay in property taxes... they are never happy.

I'd rather have zero property tax and high income tax... At least then, I'd "own" my property.

Whats ya property tax rate?

 

[DRTDEVL]

they got to get their money somewhere

TN spends little compared to many other states... Also have a decent sales tax that hovers around 9.25%.

And tourists. 15.75-18.75% tax rates on lodging.

 

[rockota]

Whats ya property tax rate?

had to look it up... I THINK this is correct.

 

[posford]

had to look it up... I THINK this is correct.

Ok, percentagewise ours is 2.54%

That said, 1100 sqft house with 24x28 detached on 1.5 acres out of town is valued at $190k

 

[Projectjunkie]

It’s not going down again. Blackrock, vanguard, and ect will buy up all the inventory with your own investment money to make sure all upcoming generations get rugged to be lifelong wage slave renters.

My thinking on this is that turn key and easy renos will be bought up as rentals, quickly and for too much, the trashed properties won't. Too much money out for too long to be profitable. I want to buy every trashed mobile on an acre, burned houses, shit like that, home sites with utilities, and wait for the next boom