Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

[YotaAtieToo]

They've been saying it's going to for the past 10 years. Any guess on here is as good as shaking a magic 8 ball.

Fixed

"This isn't a good time to buy, the market is going to drop"

I've been hearing that for at least 10 years.

We bought 2 years ago at the "peak" and I'm still glad I bought then bs now. Stuff has dropped a hair, but intrest rates are double so my payment would be ridiculous for the same place.

 

[DannyK]

Retirement is not immune to a major market crash.

But you are mostly immune to a crash if you don't have to work, have properly saved during your life, and have your house paid off.

 

[Norm]

I think the real bubble is in commercial real estate this time around.

Office space yes, but I don't think it hits business space, hotels or apartments. The question is how much of impact will the office space impact make on banks, that's were pain trickles down from.

How many people overextended themselves in 2020-2022 to purchase a property with a very small downpayment?

Probably a few, but sales volume was under trend so that segment may be pretty small.

Housing peaked in 05, bottomed in 2010 so it can be a long cycle. When I buy an investment I make sure I can rent it for enough to make sense so if the market tanks I can wait it out. Right now I only own one I live in , I sold my others way too early and missed the rona run up .

 

[arse_sidewards]

Not even close. The Blackrocks of the world just sweep in and buy the distressed properties at a steep discount and turn them into rentals. That's the real long game here. They want to do here what they've done in Europe and basically turn us into a society of renters. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy. At least that's according to them.

It's not them I want to see fucked. It's the thoudsandaires who's material plenty causes them to vote for the policies that make the economic conditions in which the Blackrocks of the world can implement their garbage.

 

[linksoldier]

The lawyers have fucked Floridas insurance industry and no one seems to be talking about it. FL has like 9% of the claims and 80% of the litigation. A big part of it is this assignment of benefits bullshit they've created.

 

[TrailTamer]

We bought 2 years ago at the "peak" and I'm still glad I bought then bs now. Stuff has dropped a hair, but intrest rates are double so my payment would be ridiculous for the same place.

That's the very important part.

We need a market correction, a crash.

or we will be in a stagnation.



housing market will be in a mess if people continue to try sell them as if it's still 2021-2022. Prices need to come down as interest rate go up.

but we're fucked if a lot of people try and failed to sell their houses for equal or more than what they owe. more bank failures, and what else.

 

[YotaAtieToo]

That's the very important part.

We need a market correction, a crash.

or we will be in a stagnation.



housing market will be in a mess if people continue to try sell them as if it's still 2021-2022. Prices need to come down as interest rate go up.

but we're fucked if a lot of people try and failed to sell their houses for equal or more than what they owe. more bank failures, and what else.

I agree, just get tired of hearing this crash is coming 10 years in a row.

 

[gunracer1]

well lumber prices are way down, that alone should lower prices.

 

[Norm]

well lumber prices are way down, that alone should lower prices.

Romex, plumbing, and labor, are still crazy high. I needed a HVAC crew to move a AC unit to do some excavation work, every crew in the area is 3 weeks out and $2k .

I've been watching building costs, I'd like to pin up a couple duplexes for retirement, but not right now. With the labor market Powell has got some work to do in order to push us into recession. We are late cycle but not yet end of cycle right now. I think it's a 24 story, maybe late 24.

 

[RusM]

I think the real bubble is in commercial real estate this time around.

Two years of 90% of office work being accomplished at the same or better level definitely seems like some companies are seeing it as an albatross.

 

[Projectjunkie]

I'm still betting on the bankers shaking the table, raise the interest rates and throw down some extra red tape high energy costs etc, bring on recession and high unemployment, with enough job loss, there will be a wave of foreclosures, but the prices won't really really fall to price discovery like they should, the fed has already chosen the winners and front loaded black rock and the like with that sweet fresh 0.7% money and they'll scoop up every deal

The goal is to turn homeowners into renters

You'll own nothing and be happy

 

[mobil1syn]

I predict no crash, maybe 10% pull back. Everyone has a 2% mortgage from 2020 they are not walking away from.

i think the real problem is that anyone under 4% (i am in this camp) doesnt want to got to a 8% mortgage. there is going to be a long duration of very limited inventory and movement in the market. if there is movement it will be converting the 2% home into a rental giving you 20-50% cash flow depending on the shituation.

 

[Mikel]

The goal is to turn homeowners into renters

You'll own nothing and be happy

Everyone rents, one way or another. Stop giving money to your municipality and let me know what happens to your house.

 

[TRINDU]

i think the real problem is that anyone under 4% (i am in this camp) doesnt want to got to a 8% mortgage. there is going to be a long duration of very limited inventory and movement in the market. if there is movement it will be converting the 2% home into a rental giving you 20-50% cash flow depending on the shituation.

That implies high employment and no recession.

 

[Mikel]

That implies high employment and no recession.

Many people who bought recently and cannot sell for their projected profit, are trying to rent, which is depressing the market.

Good.

 

[PinionLabs]

We sold our extremely over inflated home last year and bought a slightly less inflated home with more land fully expecting the value to drop eventually. I figured I traded fake monopoly money for actual space to grow and ended up in a pretty good spot.

If you sold and went further into debt on something that cost more, I won't feel sorry for you for your lack of foresight in the coming years.

 

[mobil1syn]

That implies high employment and no recession.

head in the sand and ignoring the recession, i dont think there is going to be a large drop in employment. the real problem will be in 5-7yrs when people trying to maintain lifestyle now can no longer play the credit game. id be curious to know what the heloc environment looks like right now.

 

[PinionLabs]

i think the real problem is that anyone under 4% (i am in this camp) doesnt want to got to a 8% mortgage. there is going to be a long duration of very limited inventory and movement in the market. if there is movement it will be converting the 2% home into a rental giving you 20-50% cash flow depending on the shituation.

If the shit everybody infjected into themselves a year ago really takes hold, there's gonna be a lot of homes on the market... Not to mention the boomer population hitting the golden years and the lack of people having kids. It's gonna be a different story in a decade...

 

[Projectjunkie]

Everyone rents, one way or another. Stop giving money to your municipality and let me know what happens to your house.

We all know this.

And your landlord will be passing that thru to you in as rental house along with banking costs, market adjustments, his profit, and whatever else he feels like.

Owning property in a low tax area is key. Multiple residences on same property even better


Edit. Fuck auto correct

 

[AKnate]

Can barely touch anything here for under 400k anymore.

I bought my place in 09 for 210k. New 3 bed 2 bath range, 2 car garage, 1/2 acre.
Sold it last year for 130k more, prolly closer to 160k more if I had sold it now.

My current place, which is just a 1200sq ft shop on 4.5 acres was almost 300k.

No idea how people are affording these places. Need to be pulling in 50$/hr and up.

 

[Alpine4x4]

Market wont crash. Too much demand and too little inventory. Thats being pressed even harder with the building costs being as high as they are. Best you can hope for is a recession to drive interest rates down and make buying a bit more affordable.

 

[east_beast]

i think the real problem is that anyone under 4% (i am in this camp) doesnt want to got to a 8% mortgage. there is going to be a long duration of very limited inventory and movement in the market. if there is movement it will be converting the 2% home into a rental giving you 20-50% cash flow depending on the shituation.

This. The only way folks are moving right now is if they have to (relocation, etc.) or if they're able to sell their current property for enough that they can enter the market as cash buyers by downsizing or moving to an area with much lower costs. The latter we're seeing a lot of but it's also making those areas of lower cost have quite a bit higher relative costs than they used to.

 

[mobil1syn]

No idea how people are affording these places. Need to be pulling in 50$/hr and up.

thats just the mortgage side, doesnt take into account the cost of living.

 

[Provience]

It's worth noting that that "money on the sidelines" will mostly evaporate if the stock market takes a shit for long enough and inflation continues.

Inflation continuing dies nit align with stock market shitting or home values dropping.


Inflation is what's kept those raw numbers so high for both of those. We've dropped at least 15% this past year, but the numbers are raw still the same.....you just feel it different. We're it not for Inflation, the market and houses would've already crashed in raw numbers.


Don't miss the crash because you want a raw fiat number to hit

 

[DRTDEVL]

Can barely touch anything here for under 400k anymore.

I bought my place in 09 for 210k. New 3 bed 2 bath range, 2 car garage, 1/2 acre.
Sold it last year for 130k more, prolly closer to 160k more if I had sold it now.

My current place, which is just a 1200sq ft shop on 4.5 acres was almost 300k.

No idea how people are affording these places. Need to be pulling in 50$/hr and up.

No idea? How did you just do it?

They bought initially before the market shot to the moon, then rolled the profits into their new place, just like you did.

 

[nbjeeptj]

I am in the I have money and have been waiting to buy a Vacation / investment property camp, and have been for a few years. I am starting to see a lot of the homes I have saved in my online search with pretty big price drops. I will probably miss the timing on the low mark or this lull but I do think the crazy is slowing way down. The areas I am talking about are Edisto island, Pawleys Island, garden city In South Carolina.

 

[junkytj]

Like I said would happen in the other inflation thread, market rise has slowed here, but still rising.

 

[AKnate]

No idea? How did you just do it?

They bought initially before the market shot to the moon, then rolled the profits into their new place, just like you did.

I work 4 jobs, VA disability, and didn't pay 400+k, and no kids.

 

[DRTDEVL]

I work 4 jobs, VA disability, and didn't pay 400+k, and no kids.

Don't forget the part where you realized a $130k capital gain and rolled it into your new place, making it cost less than your old place...

 

[Animalmother]

Who the fck is moving into all the apartments they are building everywhere and how many of these shitholes are subsidized some way? Part of obammys equity plan to drive minorities into the burbs.