nOOB tech questions (regarding '05+):
What line needs to be crossed to justify upgrade from factory or cromo 35-spline axle shafts to 40 spline?
What kind of improvement, percentage-wise, just going from factory to cromo axle shafts?
Axle will be dealing with 20X11 steel rims / 42X14 F rated tires / 100+:1 final drive ratio.
Assuming the joints and yokes don't become the weak point, a 40 spline shaft is 48% stronger than a 35 spline shaft of the same material using the major diameters at the splines for calculation (1.71" and 1.50" respectively).
As far as factory vs. "chromo," that is harder to give a simple answer. I am not sure what grade of steel is used in the factory 1480 and 1550 shafts, but based on how well they hold up and the fact that Ford has been using 1541H on its rear axle shafts for some time now, I think Ford/Dana Spicer is using 1541H which has a yield stress of about 180,000PSI depending on heat treatment. 1040 and 1050 are commonly used on OEM axles and have a yield strength around 120,000-165,000PSI.
There are several grades of Chromoly steel, the most common of which are 4130, 4140, and 4340, and their strength varies wildly with heat treatment. Most "Chromo" axles are 4340 and have a quoted yield strength around 200,000-240,000PSI, but again that varies wildly with the exact heat treatment used. 300M, A.K.A. 4340M, is a special vacuum-melted grade of 4340 with additional silicon content, and is usually quoted around 250,000-280,000PSI, although it also varies considerably with the particular heat treatment used.
So to answer your second question, typical 4340 aftermarket axles are about probably 20-50% stronger than stock shafts depending on the exact materials in question.
The weight of the vehicle and how you are using it is also a big factor in this. Based on your posts, I'd venture to say you'd probably be fine with the factory 1550 shafts.
No point to go 40sp in a Dana 60.
The ring and pinion will give up before good 300M 35sp shafts
Factory 1550 shafts are the logical upgrade, but it will really depends what you do with your rig. Something heavy will need more than a dana60 to hold up to 42" and that much gearing.
I don't agree with that, especially with the 10" gears in the '05+ axles (assuming you didn't downgrade to 9.75" when you regear). I have seen 4340 and 300M 35 spline shafts break without taking out the ring and pinion on Dana 60s, although fatigue probably played a role. However, going to 40 spline and 1550, CP750N joints, or "Big Bells" will greatly increase the odds of breaking a gear set instead of the axle
Here's "Desert Dogg" from the old board breaking a 300M 35 spline RCV in his low pinion Chevy Dana 60: