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Stock Market 2021

jpmassey said:
Oil up again. Good for me...but just shows me I have very little ability to predict human behavior. Why tf would oil stock be up? Not much stopping Kamala from banning it now.
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oil is up because there is nothing stopping the printers from going and people think this will be similar to 2009 when there was massive amounts of "free money" for anybody in the energy sector.

oil won't be banned, carbon markets will be back, the dollar will get hammered...all good things for large and mid sized energy producers.
 
GarScramb said:
Agree. I am glad I didn't sell any GS yesterday. Banks up huge due to yield curve steepening. Banks will actually make some $$ now if interest rates increase. Conversely, RKT gets hurt as mortgage refis and potentially new mortgages slow due to rates.

I think generally the market thinks lots of spending coming. More infrastructure, stimulus checks, who knows what else that will drive inflation up.

I still feel very compelled to take some profits in GS and BP, but resisting so far. Hope I don't regret it.
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i asked my kid if i should sell a bunch and try to buy back on monday or so, he says "i think we should stay and see where it goes".

a 7 year old can't possibly know any less than anybody else, so i'm sticking with his advice :rasta:
 
Was up a thousand $ yesterday and lost $560 today. When the current horseshit is written in stone, the stock market can relax and do what it does. :smokin:
 
Surveyboy said:
Be interesting to see what happens overnight and how the markets hit in the am
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i don't think they will react to this as much as they are preparing for the future now that we are looking at a generally blue congress


edit: in no way does this have the legs that the summer protests had, and those didn't really make much of a market dent as the hardest hit weren't public companies and this, if it does turn into anything, is likely going to focus on state/federal offices
 
Provience said:
i don't think they will react to this as much as they are preparing for the future now that we are looking at a generally blue congress


edit: in no way does this have the legs that the summer protests had, and those didn't really make much of a market dent as the hardest hit weren't public companies and this, if it does turn into anything, is likely going to focus on state/federal offices
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I would agree to the edit 100%, this will be over by midnight I'd guess.

myself, I hope it doesn't react to it much, as I'm still long on lots of stuff and could use another bump.

I am very curious as to what direction its going to take with a blue congress and everything else. need to figure out which sectors are going to be ok.
 
Surveyboy said:
I would agree to the edit 100%, this will be over by midnight I'd guess.

myself, I hope it doesn't react to it much, as I'm still long on lots of stuff and could use another bump.

I am very curious as to what direction its going to take with a blue congress and everything else. need to figure out which sectors are going to be ok.
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in typical fashion, large and extra large corps will do extremely well as it will be more difficult for challengers to grow and innovators who are not recipients of mass public funding will be at a significant disadvantage. anybody "too large" may be at risk, but that is highly doubtful to have anybody broken up in telecom or "interneting" this go 'round. banking, infrastructure and energy are plenty diverse to keep any one from being targeted

there is very likely to be some serious changes to affordable care act, but i don't know well enough to know who is going to be the big losers there.
 
Surveyboy said:
I am very curious as to what direction its going to take with a blue congress and everything else. need to figure out which sectors are going to be ok.
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Anything green new deal related will be hot - Ev's, battery stocks, charging station stocks, Lithium

Anything old energy will be bad - Oil, coal, mining, drilling, exploration (although honestly most of these are really beaten down anyway)

Tech might cool off a lot, supposedly there will be a lot more regulation on tech companies (guess they did not crack down hard enough on conservatives apparently), doubt 230 gets removed, so tech companies will still not have to bear responsibility as publishers of BS, and cannot be held liable

Banks have made a big comeback, but could be under pressure if Liz Warren or Bernie has any say, large brokerage companies too.

Would not bank on travel or open the economy stocks either, as rumor is Basement Biden will do a nationwide lock down for his first 100 days (too little, too late), and expect a nationwide mask mandate, though most mask makers are played out

China stocks will be hot, Beijing pumped hundreds of millions into unseating Trumpy, and will expect payback, plus they have to pay Hunter Biden's consulting fees too

More bailouts, more loans, more money printing. Inflation and weak dollar to be expected, Bitcoin may benefit

Guns stocks tend to do well under Dem .gov, everyone scared they are going to fuck with 2A, rightfully so, but to counter if there is strong anti-gun legislation or removal of liability protection that could hurt arms makers.

To counter - house is pretty close, Senate down to KH deciding vote, and elections less than two years away so perhaps there won't be a strong progressive agenda pushed - perhaps. Or they learn from the first couple years of Obama, where they held all 3 positions and failed to implement strong enough socialist agenda, perhaps they double down this go around
 
XtremeJ said:
Anything green new deal related will be hot - Ev's, battery stocks, charging station stocks, Lithium

Anything old energy will be bad - Oil, coal, mining, drilling, exploration (although honestly most of these are really beaten down anyway)
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I think these two have already happened. Once it becomes clear what the future is, the market has already adjusted. Every oil stock is undervalued and every EV is massively overvalued. Even if you look at potential gains/losses in revenue, the valuations are way off from the current status.

And no, zero percent chance of a nationwide lockdown. The Dems know that would just rile up the right wing base, which is down in the dumps right now.
 
jpmassey said:
I think these two have already happened. Once it becomes clear what the future is, the market has already adjusted. Every oil stock is undervalued and every EV is massively overvalued. Even if you look at potential gains/losses in revenue, the valuations are way off from the current status.

And no, zero percent chance of a nationwide lockdown. The Dems know that would just rile up the right wing base, which is down in the dumps right now.
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yup, no argument from me on the valuations, I don't claim to understand the market, I just trade the charts. And the charts say EV's are hot, valuations be damned. Note how they are describing TSLA as a technology company not a car maker. And just because you are first or current market leader does not mean you will be successful, Beta vs VHS kinda deal, or MySpace vs Facebook. I invest in companies I understand, I trade in companies whose technicals show me there may be a trade. Sometimes I have to go back at the end of the day and research what a company even does, charts look good, in and out, scalp as we go, better yet if they are hot and have momentum. And lots of Fintwit mentions to get the Robinhooders buying in. Only takes two people to make a trade, and if that other person is Joe Public I like my odds. I am aware the odds are stacked against me if the other person in the trade is a computer algorithm

It was a very real struggle for me to forget everything I knew about investing when I started short term trading. No way I would invest in TSLA, but if you don't trade TSLA you are sure leaving money on the sidelines at times.

The whole lockdown deal for me boils down to states rights vs the Fed. I sure hope every single state would sue to prevent a nationwide lock down, but I doubt that even a handful of the red states do. After today Biden may just want to lock down those "Trump supporters" so they cannot riot, burn and loot. Look how well the stay at home orders worked on the peaceful protestors this summer.

Much as I dislike him, have to give Polis some credit on how he has guided Colorado during this past year. He would probably get my vote next time, even though he is just as socialist as the rest of the left.
 
I think the market drops 1k soon, should have been today. The run up makes no sense with what’s coming.
 
XtremeJ said:
Much as I dislike him, have to give Polis some credit on how he has guided Colorado during this past year. He would probably get my vote next time, even though he is just as socialist as the rest of the left.
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Fuck polis. That fucker just opens and closes small businesses on a whim. The dog and pony shows he makes counties do to get a 'variance' and then changes the rules 2 weeks later are embarrassing. His facebook posts make trump look professional. He closed Colorado to new drilling after the population voted against it. Seriously, fuck that guy. I hope the recall effort is successful.
 
I keep thinking about selling some of my BP to lock in some profit (Actually to recognize a long term loss from a lot I bought in 2015), but then I look at a 5 year chart. I just don't see any way this stock is under a $30+ stock post Covid.

Don't remember ever being this conflicted on the market. It seems like it's out of control but then looking at individual stocks I still see a good reason to hold on.
 
GarScramb said:
I keep thinking about selling some of my BP to lock in some profit (Actually to recognize a long term loss from a lot I bought in 2015), but then I look at a 5 year chart. I just don't see any way this stock is under a $30+ stock post Covid.

Don't remember ever being this conflicted on the market. It seems like it's out of control but then looking at individual stocks I still see a good reason to hold on.
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I have the same sentiments. I keep trying to convince myself to rid myself of chevron and pg&e, but I don't see them contributing to this massive bubble.

then I look at the stocks that I first bought.
snapchat I bought in March at $9.50 a share. Sold at $26 a share. Its trading today at around $50 share. Wtf?
I bought Facebook at the same time for around $150 I believe. It's trading at around $270 today.

then there's the story of tesla. I'm sure there's other stocks out there with the same irrational boom. Is it sustainable? If not, how long until it comes crashing down? What will it bring with it when it does?

whats going to be the fallout of the impending commercial property crash? All these shuttered businesses aint paying mortgage... what percentage of people aint paying rent because they know they can't get evicted? If rent isn't being paid, is mortgage on the property being met?

trying not to be doom and gloom, but I think these are valid questions.
 
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Is it to late to jump into something in the clean energy sector? I have to think they will do good, but is that what everyone has already thought and now its over priced?
 
nbjeeptj said:
Is it to late to jump into something in the clean energy sector? I have to think they will do good, but is that what everyone has already thought and now its over priced?
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With Biden coming in I would expect the clean energy sector to keep going up. I'm looking at Invesco Solar ETF: TAN. Wish I had put $ in, instead of watching it. Of course everything clean energy or EV had a great day today.

NIO day is on the 9th, I'm still thinking of selling the hype tomorrow then look for a good reentry point.
 
nbjeeptj said:
Is it to late to jump into something in the clean energy sector? I have to think they will do good, but is that what everyone has already thought and now its over priced?
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BP just bought one of the largest carbon traders a couple weeks ago, i still think that the large traditional oil and gas companies will soak up mass amounts of "clean energy" funding.

A very large portion of Teslas earnings come from selling carbon credit type stuff. they make electric cars, GM makes gas cars. GM pays Tesla to make an electric car and gets "clean energy credit" for it so they can sell another truck. same shit happens in oil and gas and it is about to get a massive infusion of cash with "green energy".

Didn't most of the pop-up "clean energy" solar/wind companies from the 2009 shovel ready stimulus just take taxpayer money and go belly up? if you want to trade high risk, look for those places once they start rearing up. if you want to invest, look at the places that soaked up that money and continued to exist, such as BP even with the "horizon disaster"
 
MuntCuffin said:
then there's the story of tesla. I'm sure there's other stocks out there with the same irrational boom. Is it sustainable? If not, how long until it comes crashing down? What will it bring with it when it does?
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I've been a Tesla bear for a couple years. It's basically in bitcoin territory now. The bandwagon buying is a serious driver of the market these days. Hell I bought a single share at $600, and now it's $800+. I'll laugh my ass of if musk sells a huge chunk and pockets billions.

Or maybe it goes to $30,000 like bitcoin?
 
jpmassey said:
Fuck polis. That fucker just opens and closes small businesses on a whim. The dog and pony shows he makes counties do to get a 'variance' and then changes the rules 2 weeks later are embarrassing. His facebook posts make trump look professional. He closed Colorado to new drilling after the population voted against it. Seriously, fuck that guy. I hope the recall effort is successful.
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Agree. Polis is the most commie bastard I have verve seen. It’s coming for him though. The state will be broke without oil.
 
Man; I wouldn't touch that energy sector with a ten foot poll... I almost got my ass burned on XOM when it popped its cherry. This fucking bitcoin is starting to look interesting; but 30k to play the game is a little steep for my PB&J. :smokin::smokin::smokin::smokin:
 
billdacat said:
Man; I wouldn't touch that energy sector with a ten foot poll... I almost got my ass burned on XOM when it popped its cherry. This fucking bitcoin is starting to look interesting; but 30k to play the game is a little steep for my PB&J. :smokin::smokin::smokin::smokin:
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You think XOM is a higher risk than bitcoin? Holy shit.
 
jpmassey said:
I've been a Tesla bear for a couple years. It's basically in bitcoin territory now. The bandwagon buying is a serious driver of the market these days. Hell I bought a single share at $600, and now it's $800+. I'll laugh my ass of if musk sells a huge chunk and pockets billions.

Or maybe it goes to $30,000 like bitcoin?
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or $41k like bitcoin... :o
 
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