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Stock Market 2021

in.

although i've largely switched back to "investing" instead of "trading" so i'll be happy with 8% annual growth instead of 100%


edit: for comparison, i switched my somewhat managed i guess TSP (government style 401K) from being 100% bonds with ~2% annual "growth" in January or February of 2020, right before the crash, to ~75% stocks. Didn't do a thing except make my same normal contribution and my December "end of year" statement still managed to reflect a 35% growth.

which is why, when shit was crashing last year and people kept asking "should i sell my 401k and go all gold?!?!?" my general thought was still "nah, just let it right and it will be fine". Odds are good that anybody who just left everything alone still did fine across the whole year with any of the "fund" or "index" or wtf ever they are called things.

i'm curious if anybody who did sell and go cash is still sitting on the sidelines

I did take cash ($500 to start) and "traded" individual stocks directly at and near the bottom and managed to average 100% gain on that money. so yes, there was certainly more potential than just leaving it alone, but it was also a bunch more effort
 
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NIO is doing very well this morning with good delivery numbers for December and the hype of the upcoming NIO day (Jan. 9). I think it's going to hit all time highs by the end of the week, but concerned of a sell off at some point.
 
I started trading dogecoin, because it was $0.0047/ea. Bought $200 worth about 3 weeks ago. Im not sure why, but that summabich doubled the other day.
 
The overall market is about 35% overbought, the thing that scares me is when it corrects it will happen fast. I think it’s got some legs left, but one event and it will drop like a rock. I still like gold and energy here, tech is scary at these multiples.
 
Norm said:
The overall market is about 35% overbought, the thing that scares me is when it corrects it will happen fast. I think it’s got some legs left, but one event and it will drop like a rock. I still like gold and energy here, tech is scary at these multiples.
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I'm taking a beating today....
 
Norm said:
The overall market is about 35% overbought, the thing that scares me is when it corrects it will happen fast. I think it’s got some legs left, but one event and it will drop like a rock. I still like gold and energy here, tech is scary at these multiples.
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Spent most of the morning updating my stop orders on my swing and investment accounts - no reason to give it back when the correction happens

Of concern
- polls showing Dems ahead in both races in GA, IF they take both seats we are fucked, Biden will have free reign to implement whatever stupid leftist agenda the deep state wants pushed
- Biden will be prez come Jan 21st and has already floated a nationwide shutdown, and nationwide mask mandate. Small business will be totally screwed
- Suspect he will pass another aid package in first 100 days, more brrrr from the printing presses
- Carl Icahn noted he is well hedged, suggesting he believes a correction is coming, and it will be swift and heavy
- China asking US companies that have locations in China IF they do business with US military - possible retribution for the US delisting 3 Chinese companies recently

Dow was down over 600 points at times today. Gold stocks seemed to be strong relatively speaking. Non-stop selling with SPY breaking several key levels on the downside, but did hold, and actually recovered slightly towards end of the day. Gap down overnight with tests of todays lows, IF they hold I will go long. If they fail then SPY puts to hedge against some of my open positions

jpmassey - huge amount of TSLA call option buying last week, some for mid Jan, at 780 and 800 - does someone know something? TSLA announced numbers over the weekend, nothing spectacular. News today was they will begin selling in Israel, but cannot see that accounting for much movement. Given how it held up today with sustained selling on the indexes, could easily rip higher if the buyers return tomorrow or Wednesday. Makes zero sense, but not complaining as I bought (more) post split, and those positions are approaching 100% on equity. Small position in TSLA calls as I followed the flow.

UK and Germany both increasing lockdowns, or extending existing lock downs. The stay at home stocks did not really react, apart from ZM which has been beaten down quite a bit, and today did not sell off when the rest of the market was under sell pressure. Call options too expensive for me to consider, likely meaning there are a lot of eyes on ZM for a bounce.

JMIA really beaten down after a run up to almost 50. Room back to 28.50 if it wants to fill the gap. Added some May 21 calls as I have been trimming my position while it was setting highs.
 
Norm said:
The overall market is about 35% overbought, the thing that scares me is when it corrects it will happen fast. I think it’s got some legs left, but one event and it will drop like a rock. I still like gold and energy here, tech is scary at these multiples.
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i'm still a fan of energy during these times.

i managed to buy EPD at the ~9 month peak apparently :laughing: but currently at ~$19/ and the div is ~9% yield. If it continues to go down and get's under $18 again, i'll buy some more and use the magic of dollar averaging to hopefully offset my impressive losses.

BP is doing the same thing, currently over 9% yield. both of them bottomed out around $15 last year and rebounded to mid $20's. if they head back into the mid teens, that is going to be tough to argue with. hell, 10% annual return isn't great during a crazy volitile year, but is pretty solid for a long term return average. BP also recently bought some stupid carbon trader business or whatever, which just continues to solidify the reality that they won't pull a Kodak and will be relevant for a long time.

XOM has faired better than the above two through the whole of last year and even they are over 8% div right now.


Despite the markets getting generally hammered today, it was my best day in the last few🤣


I was talking to a guy a couple weeks back who went/is going way big into pfizer, and it looks like he's probably stayed on the losing side of that deal so far :confused: he was confident that "regardless, pfizer pays about the highest dividend of anything you can buy" but hell, they are at 4%

obviously none of that means anything to anybody who is trading and not investing, but for long term stability, energy with a 9-10% and potentially higher dividend yield could well outperform gold over the next decade
 
Provience said:
i'm still a fan of energy during these times.

i managed to buy EPD at the ~9 month peak apparently :laughing: but currently at ~$19/ and the div is ~9% yield. If it continues to go down and get's under $18 again, i'll buy some more and use the magic of dollar averaging to hopefully offset my impressive losses.

BP is doing the same thing, currently over 9% yield. both of them bottomed out around $15 last year and rebounded to mid $20's. if they head back into the mid teens, that is going to be tough to argue with. hell, 10% annual return isn't great during a crazy volitile year, but is pretty solid for a long term return average. BP also recently bought some stupid carbon trader business or whatever, which just continues to solidify the reality that they won't pull a Kodak and will be relevant for a long time.

XOM has faired better than the above two through the whole of last year and even they are over 8% div right now.


Despite the markets getting generally hammered today, it was my best day in the last few🤣


I was talking to a guy a couple weeks back who went/is going way big into pfizer, and it looks like he's probably stayed on the losing side of that deal so far :confused: he was confident that "regardless, pfizer pays about the highest dividend of anything you can buy" but hell, they are at 4%

obviously none of that means anything to anybody who is trading and not investing, but for long term stability, energy with a 9-10% and potentially higher dividend yield could well outperform gold over the next decade
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I’m down a bit on EPD also, but it will come back or I’ll make it up in divided’s :homer:
 
I am fucking worried shitless that Georgia will go blue. If it stays Red; I am golden. Speaking of XOM; I sold that bitch years ago at 92... I think GE might be looking interesting; but way too many shares out! Fucking ETF's are a strange breed; I know they must influence stand-alone shares. But can't get my head around what that influence is. :homer:
 
billdacat said:
I am fucking worried shitless that Georgia will go blue. If it stays Red; I am golden. Speaking of XOM; I sold that bitch years ago at 92... I think GE might be looking interesting; but way too many shares out! Fucking ETF's are a strange breed; I know they must influence stand-alone shares. But can't get my head around what that influence is. :homer:
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is GA really and honestly at risk of going blue for the senate?

wow, that will suck :laughing: 2021 will be a 2009 repeat :shaking: hopefully it only lasts for 2 years if so!
 
jpmassey said:
Who the fuck keeps buying tesla?
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I bought 1 share when It split, I'm up about $250, recently some clown on reddit showed how he turned 500 into half a million, seems like a reasonable goal :rolleyes:
 
Thatg9659 said:
I bought 1 share when It split, I'm up about $250, recently some clown on reddit showed how he turned 500 into half a million, seems like a reasonable goal :rolleyes:
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i put tesla on my "watchlist" March 18th when it was ~$300, that is now a corrected for racing shoes $72 and 910% gain. :laughing: with the leverage options provide plus the huge swings it's taken to get here, i can absolutely see how somebody was able to go from $500 to $500,000 just messing with them.

i'm curious if there are people who have absolutely lost their ass on tesla during all this
 
I am down over 100k right now... But what the fuck do I care... I advised my GF to invest in stocks a month ago; I sure hope she doesn't look at her portfolio for a couple of weeks or I am dead! meat! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
 
XtremeJ said:
Spent most of the morning updating my stop orders on my swing and investment accounts - no reason to give it back when the correction happens
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Taking your advice and setting up stop orders to lock in profit. Do you do Stop orders or Stop Limit orders?
 
GS is at an all time high today. Seriously thinking about taking profits on the position I have had for 13 years. I rarely ever sell. Always gut-wrenching decision for me.

I think there's a very good chance that the GA election results kicks the market in the balls tomorrow.
 
well shit. big day today

~5%+ for BP/XOM/WES/EPD

Now i'm in a stuck spot. I was hoping they would drop further and i'd tie up more funds.

guess i'll go back to waiting for them to go down. probably could sell off today and buy back tomorrow evening, but i didn't last time and i'm not likely to start now :laughing:
 
Just unloaded energy and gold (will pick back up soonish) and went short the QQQ this morning. Dems win georgia and it will be rough sledding for a bit.
 
Oil up again. Good for me...but just shows me I have very little ability to predict human behavior. Why tf would oil stock be up? Not much stopping Kamala from banning it now.
 
I was expecting a rough day today, but it's been one of my better ones. Only one I have that's down is RKT, so I bought more of it.
 
It's almost like things are looking up with the whole electoral vote confirming Biden and the GA Senate runoff resulting in two democratic senators. We will see how this trend ages
 
Agree. I am glad I didn't sell any GS yesterday. Banks up huge due to yield curve steepening. Banks will actually make some $$ now if interest rates increase. Conversely, RKT gets hurt as mortgage refis and potentially new mortgages slow due to rates.

I think generally the market thinks lots of spending coming. More infrastructure, stimulus checks, who knows what else that will drive inflation up.

I still feel very compelled to take some profits in GS and BP, but resisting so far. Hope I don't regret it.
 
Still feeling uneasy about the total liberal control. Plus my first hour this morning gave me the finger on the chart, so decided to cash out for a few days. Nice 25% gain for the last year. :smokin:

20210106_114750.jpg
 
its a crazy day. Smith and Wesson bounced over 20% today. I went and took my gains on it. I can't see it making a leap like that again tomorrow.

kinda hope it comes back down, I wanted to keep it lol
 
5150Jeep said:
Taking your advice and setting up stop orders to lock in profit. Do you do Stop orders or Stop Limit orders?
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Hope I am not too late

Hard stop if you are not green on a trade, move stops up to break even, then ride it

Or hard stop until green, then put a trailing stop in place (with enough room that you don't get stopped out early)

I do not use Stop Limit orders unless buying.
Example Stock is at $100, my max loss is 10% or $10 so stop order at 89.95 (I avoid round numbers on the sell side) If the stock gaps down, to say $80, I will be stopped out at $80.

If I used a Stop Limit - sell at 89.95, limit 87.50, I likely won't get stopped out as the stock opens at 80, and could go lower, and I am still in the stock. At least with a stop order, I am out - yes at 20% down, but if the stock keeps pulling, at least I am out

Long term swing (longer than 3 months) I might set a trailing stop using %, I consider 10% tight, 15% normal, 20% loose so I don't get stopped out on every little pull back - only time I use a % trailing stop

Day trade equity, stop loss typically tied to a pivot / support / resistance but usually max might be 5%, 2.5% typical, and 1% tight (numbers approx, as I set mental stops at those pivot points, with a hard stop set a little lower. If a pivot is 22, I will set a hard stop around 21.75 or 21.90. Market makers look for those 21.95's and will wick you out if not careful

Short term swing, max loss 10% but typical is 5% (or I may take 1/2 the position off)

BUT ...... my biggest losses last year were from stops set too tight, would get wicked out, then the stock would run like I had planned. Had to step back, take smaller positions with more room for the stop loss. Of course this affects risk / reward, and may make the trade a no - go. Had the opposite happen today, stop on JKS was .25 lower than one of the bosses in the trade room, he got stopped out, I did not, stock then reversed and I got out green, he took a small loss red. Such is trading. Yesterday he bailed on one of the crypto stocks when it broke pivot, I was dicking around with changing a stop order, stock pulled, he took a paper cut loss, I lost $1 per share more (can hurt when the position is several thousand shares)

Short term swing or overnight hold trades I might remove stops for the first 2 hours of trading if it looks like a gap down and shakeout. Notice how may days we start gap down on open, stocks pull, and after the first hour or two reverse, go red to green then run the rest of the day. Stops too tight and you get shaken out, and miss the gains. One of my trade plans is the Avalanche trade, where I look for a stock to open down, continue to pull until about 10:30 eastern or 11 and then reverse. Red to Green makes it even stronger.


Hope that helps
 
Surveyboy said:
its a crazy day. Smith and Wesson bounced over 20% today. I went and took my gains on it. I can't see it making a leap like that again tomorrow.

kinda hope it comes back down, I wanted to keep it lol
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RGR was up over 10% today, usually they move opposite the market.

otherwise, another day of building on gains from yesterday

edit: i should probably unload some stuff today, bank stocks went up a bunch as well. it feels like we are setting up for a bad weekend, maybe friday turndown

but i'm usually wrong :rasta:
 
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