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Russia / Ukraine thread

east_beast said:
If you shoot off an ICBM that's traversing the globe you're triggering WWIII. That seems to be the key thing you're missing here. You can't launch an ICBM that is going to pass over the U.S. and Europe without triggering an immense response because there's no way of knowing whether that ICBM is targeting you or not. You'd learn a lot from those Annie Jacobsen podcasts
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Yes, duh. And if you shoot off an icbm that doesn't go far, you're not showing anyone anything. The best way to have people fear your icbm prowess is to not have a reputation for your complicated military equipment falling apart while also having icbms. Russia only checks one of those boxes.
 
Sandy Johnson said:
I agree... but it's also outright war between Ukraine and Russia, so when people talk "escalation" as though they're surprised, it makes me shake my head.
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True and I don’t see Russia using nukes because it will make them the bad guy, look at the revisionist history with ww2 and the nukes. We should have just invaded Japanese home islands because that would have saved so much bloodshed.

Sandy Johnson said:
Ukraine is 100% doing everything they can to ruin Russia's day. The only thing holding them back from going full-retard is their lack of resources and manpower.
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Inverse would be only thing stopping Russia from going full Israel is they want to incorporate Ukraine into Russia and if you’re killing everyone that is supposed to be your citizens they generally hold that against you. Russia also is facing the same population problems as most of the world do even if you wiped Ukraine off the map they would have a hard time repopulating it with native Russians.

Sandy Johnson said:
Yes, duh. And if you shoot off an icbm that doesn't go far, you're not showing anyone anything. The best way to have people fear your icbm prowess is to not have a reputation for your complicated military equipment falling apart while also having icbms. Russia only checks one of those boxes.
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IMG_8921.jpeg
 
Sandy Johnson said:
Yes, duh. And if you shoot off an icbm that doesn't go far, you're not showing anyone anything. The best way to have people fear your icbm prowess is to not have a reputation for your complicated military equipment falling apart while also having icbms. Russia only checks one of those boxes.
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So you advocate to just continue to boil the frog to see what happens? To gain what? It's just insanity.
 
Slander said:
Difference between Iran shooting off a ballistic missile and Russia firing off ICBMs
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Yes, if it was an ICBM, but it wasn't. ICBM's are many times over larger because range takes fuel and because of their size and resulting immobility, live in silos. We know where the silos are. If we see the silos open and/or heat flares at the silos everything goes to hell. If a mobile missile launcher in another region fires off a 'small' missile, nobody moves the DEFCON level. Just like when Iran fires off a few hundred at a regional rival.

It was a ballistic missile, Ukraine unintelligently declares it an ICBM, but likely an intermediate range ballistic missile freshly developed.

We used to have a treaty with Russia against the development of the intermediate range ballistic missiles. Trump killed the treaty in '19 after Russia pulled out a couple months prior. Russia started work on this missile they just used. We turned around and developed the Dark Eagle which is way more terrifying than a short range ICBM.
 
east_beast said:
So you advocate to just continue to boil the frog to see what happens? To gain what? It's just insanity.
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When I did I say that?

I'm not advocating for anything. My points so far:
  • Russia probably didn't fire an ICBM to be scary
  • Russia probably didn't fire an ICBM at all
  • If Russia did, it proves nothing because that's not the normal use case for such a weapon
  • Russia has a track record of poorly maintained military hardware and I'm doubtful their ICBMs are an exception.
 
Sandy Johnson said:
When I did I say that?

I'm not advocating for anything. My points so far:
  • Russia probably didn't fire an ICBM to be scary
  • Russia probably didn't fire an ICBM at all
  • If Russia did, it proves nothing because that's not the normal use case for such a weapon
  • Russia has a track record of poorly maintained military hardware and I'm doubtful their ICBMs are an exception.
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So what are you advocating? I'm saying this entire approach to using Ukrainians as cannon fodder in a proxy war we acknowledge they can't win is cruel and the continual escalation of the conflict is dangerously idiotic.
 
DMG said:
That depends where in Russia it was launched from. Part is in Europe and part is in Asia. :flipoff2:
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I wish we could stop pretending that Europe was an actual geographical continent. It's clearly just the western tip of the Asian landmass. Let's just call it Euroasia and move on.
 
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east_beast said:
So what are you advocating? I'm saying this entire approach to using Ukrainians as cannon fodder in a proxy war we acknowledge they can't win is cruel and the continual escalation of the conflict is dangerously idiotic.
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Sandy Johnson said:
I'm not advocating for anything.
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Its war, and I doubt the US has much control anymore other than to pull support. I doubt that will stop what has been started however.
 
Sandy Johnson said:
Its war, and I doubt the US has much control anymore other than to pull support. I doubt that will stop what has been started however.
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War is just politics, massive swing in politics (i.e. pull funding, without USA backing this would've never left the 2014 "Start") results in a massive swing in the war. The major goal of war is to change politics.

The US as the primary trainer and funder of one side has massive control. Multiple times the USA forces Ukraine to continue rather than work on peace deals over the past 4 years .

Crimea going from Ukraine to Russia "by vote" is the same exact model used by the eastern regions that started this 2021 excursion
 
Provience said:
War is just politics, massive swing in politics (i.e. pull funding, without USA backing this would've never left the 2014 "Start") results in a massive swing in the war. The major goal of war is to change politics.

The US as the primary trainer and funder of one side has massive control. Multiple times the USA forces Ukraine to continue rather than work on peace deals over the past 4 years .

Crimea going from Ukraine to Russia "by vote" is the same exact model used by the eastern regions that started this 2021 excursion
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And don't forget Georgia before that. Obama didn't do anything so Putin renewed the strategy once Biden was in. He is also agitating in Moldova in the same way right now. Somehow this strategy needs to be defused, and its influence negated or other actors are going to start doing the same thing in their border regions.
 
DannyK said:
What do you think Trump is going to offer Russia to stop the war?

What do you think Russia will accept to stop the war?
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No Ukraine in NATO and lifting sanctions on Russia upon the signing of a peace deal.

The real negotiation will be establishing where the eastern line of Ukraine will be going forward and providing for people to land on the side of the line they want to be in. And no, you're not going to even come close to making everyone happy there. That's just reality.
 
Johann said:
And don't forget Georgia before that. Obama didn't do anything so Putin renewed the strategy once Biden was in. He is also agitating in Moldova in the same way right now. Somehow this strategy needs to be defused, and its influence negated or other actors are going to start doing the same thing in their border regions.
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Well....why? Specifically, why are we more concerned about belligerence on the other side of the globe for countries we aren't beholden to defend.

Broadly, why are we beholden to anything outside our borders and territories? Let's go ahead and put gerorgia under our territorial control and treat them closer to Puerto Rico and I'd be all for fighting for them.
 
Splib said:
Trump ends this day one. Care to wager ? :usa:
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Hope so and he better. He should put in the terms that any Americans that want to contain Russia get shipped to Ukraine or another border country to pick up a gun and fight that on their own:laughing:. Looking at you Lindsey graham and John Bolton, and the rest of the Russia bad citizens.
 
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Provience said:
Well....why? Specifically, why are we more concerned about belligerence on the other side of the globe for countries we aren't beholden to defend.

Broadly, why are we beholden to anything outside our borders and territories? Let's go ahead and put gerorgia under our territorial control and treat them closer to Puerto Rico and I'd be all for fighting for them.
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This right here.
 
It won't wind down in 1 day but conditions can be prepped. The Afghanistan withdrawal was many years in the making, enabled to finalize and progress under Trump v1.0 and then absolutely wrecked moving forward after the election in 2020, with disastrous results.
 
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