Bullshit. Demand is easy to forecast with some error. It ain't hard to tailor your licensing rules to ensure there's never quite enough bodies needed and there's perpetually a shortage thereby artificially raising wages higher than those people are worth in a free market. This is how literally every licensing cartel works.
Truckers are a great example of the opposite. There is no licensing cartel because it's .gov licensing so anyone can start a school and crank out licensed drivers real quick and supply is always there to meet demand for services.
It it weren't for your licensing cartel you wouldn't make any more than a steering wheel holder does because you're not worth much more. Same goes for just about every licensed trade, not just electricians.
Dude. We don't have trades 'Licensing' like you do ( contractors only) and still have the people shortage. Firstly, few want to do real work. Especially not repetitious, dirty, or in extreme weather. Of those that do, they get trade-qualified (lifetime credential) and move on to better work - almost nobody wants to dicker with homeowners or construction sites for the rest of their lives. But they can fall back on it if times get tough.
Contractors are largely either established players that don't have to hustle for jobs, or amateurs struggling to land work at all. Between the $5k and $2k quotes, which guy you think is hurtin more when the job isn't hired out at all? As for the $5k quote.... how many hours at what rate does the worker actually see on his timesheet?
Doing business now is business-first and the craft is second (if not third). The 70's are over and you can't ply your trade with the casualness of a prostitute, nor make a months wages by working hard for 2 weeks.
Funny you bring up commercial driving; the bar for minimum mandatory training has been raised in my province, probably canada-wide. Its triple the time/$$$$ investment it was in 2016. Think of it as a "coming soon" memo.