Javier Milei / Argentina

[IH-SSII]

Literally the only thing propping us up right now is that the USD is the world's reserve currency and BRICS is a potential major threat to that and it is largely just being completely ignored.

When it does happen the USD is no longer the standard, we will go the way of Venezuela hyperinflation. Almost everyone will wake up poor overnight.

 

[east_beast]

When it does happen the USD is no longer the standard, we will go the way of Venezuela hyperinflation. Almost everyone will wake up poor overnight.

And I don't think 99% of Americans realize this. Our national debt honestly isn't matter as long as the dollar remains the reserve currency. But the rest of the world is starting to realize that due to us being basically forced to try to money supply our way out of the debt issue, the rest of the world is essentially being taxed on our debt because the dollar is the reserve currency.

 

[Motorcharge]

When it does happen the USD is no longer the standard, we will go the way of Venezuela hyperinflation. Almost everyone will wake up poor overnight.

It's far more likely we'd pull the usually fuckery to destabilize those countries from within and turn them against each other long before the dollar actually got replaced.

The other big factor here is to replace the dollar you'd need something capable of actually replacing it as a global operating currency which is highly unlikely to happen. Even if other countries are getting sick of the effects of the petro dollar, they're not stupid enough to replace us with worse countries like Russia or China who without a doubt will put themselves first where we don't. That's why we spend billions upon billions of dollars annually on foreign aid. It comes with all kind of stipulations, it's not charity. The biggest stipulation it normally comes with is agreements for us to be able to have military bases on foreign soil. As much as the military industrial complex and things like the CIA fucking suck, we really are dependent on them to maintain stability and the status of the petro dollar.

 

[BigBurt]

When it does happen the USD is no longer the standard, we will go the way of Venezuela hyperinflation. Almost everyone will wake up poor overnight.

Wonder what BTC will do in that case

 

[east_beast]

It's far more likely we'd pull the usually fuckery to destabilize those countries from within and turn them against each other long before the dollar actually got replaced.

The other big factor here is to replace the dollar you'd need something capable of actually replacing it as a global operating currency which is highly unlikely to happen. Even if other countries are getting sick of the effects of the petro dollar, they're not stupid enough to replace us with worse countries like Russia or China who without a doubt will put themselves first where we don't. That's why we spend billions upon billions of dollars annually on foreign aid. It comes with all kind of stipulations, it's not charity. The biggest stipulation it normally comes with is agreements for us to be able to have military bases on foreign soil. As much as the military industrial complex and things like the CIA fucking suck, we really are dependent on them to maintain stability and the status of the petro dollar.

Destabilizing Middle Eastern or Central American shit holes is one thing. Destabilizing the Chinas and Russias of the world is a totally different ballgame.

 

[east_beast]

What stipulations does it come with? That are actually enforced. I mean, we've funded the shit out of Saudi Arabia for years and they thumb their nose at us at every turn. We've been made absolute suckers.

 

[Motorcharge]

Destabilizing Middle Eastern or Central American shit holes is one thing. Destabilizing the Chinas and Russias of the world is a totally different ballgame.

Not really, especially if you're only trying to get them to stop trusting each other.

China in particular wouldn't be difficult to destabalize. Their entire economy relies on Western commerce. Their infrastructure is a nightmare, especially in regards to power. Their hydroelectric is easy to hit, their oil is fed by a single pipeline that's easy to hit. It wouldn't take much to destabalize the Chinese.

 

[WaterH]

Wonder what BTC will do in that case

It will likly be made illegal, but I think everybody should own a little just in case. If it would come out as reserve currency, one coin would be worth millions. I feel the same way about gold. You don’t need to have much, but if the dollar goes south, you will be glad you got some.

 

[east_beast]

Not really, especially if you're only thing to get them to stop trusting each other.

China in particular wouldn't be difficult to destabalize. Their entire economy relies on Western commerce. Their infrastructure is a nightmare, especially in regards to power. Their hydroelectric is easy to hit, their oil is fed by a single pipeline that's easy to hit. It wouldn't take much to destabalize the Chinese.

And our entire economy relies on cheap shit from China.

 

[east_beast]

Gonna be an interesting Monday. Japan markets are falling off a cliff and the state department expects Iran to attack Israel within the next 24 hours.

 

[RusM]

It's far more likely we'd pull the usually fuckery to destabilize those countries from within and turn them against each other long before the dollar actually got replaced.

The other big factor here is to replace the dollar you'd need something capable of actually replacing it as a global operating currency which is highly unlikely to happen. Even if other countries are getting sick of the effects of the petro dollar, they're not stupid enough to replace us with worse countries like Russia or China who without a doubt will put themselves first where we don't. That's why we spend billions upon billions of dollars annually on foreign aid. It comes with all kind of stipulations, it's not charity. The biggest stipulation it normally comes with is agreements for us to be able to have military bases on foreign soil. As much as the military industrial complex and things like the CIA fucking suck, we really are dependent on them to maintain stability and the status of the petro dollar.

You-all know about them wars they've been trying to start? That's how you remain the world's reserve currency with a completely fucked economy...

 

[rockota]

I'm baffled how it's all being completely downplayed by the media and most economists. I think we've just been living in a dollar dominated world for so long that practically no one alive can envision that ever changing. But it absolutely can.

Modern monetary policy. Scary crap. It’s just cash flowing and credit card balance transfers

 

[[486]]

Modern monetary policy. Scary crap. It’s just cash flowing and credit card balance transfers

it's a lot easier to understand when it is viewed as a roundabout slavery

 

[Motorcharge]

And our entire economy relies on cheap shit from China.

Not really, in part for sure but it's not like we're not capable of shifting away from that. China also has plenty of competition for cheap labor and low regulation these days and we have no shortage of industry and natural resources we can tap if needed. China on the other hand is desperate as it is for natural resources, power sources, etc. The last 30 years of China spending trillions internally and abroad to over inflate their economy on paper and overvalue their currency has left them in much worse shape than the US is in. All the fake infrastructure projects they cheaped out on building are falling apart already and they don't have the money to band aid everything, let alone replacements. They're also getting ready to head into a huge labor shortage and population crisis thanks to the One Child Policy coming home to roost.

 

[east_beast]

Not really, in part for sure but it's not like we're not capable of shifting away from that. China also has plenty of competition for cheap labor and low regulation these days and we have no shortage of industry and natural resources we can tap if needed. China on the other hand is desperate as it is for natural resources, power sources, etc. The last 30 years of China spending trillions internally and abroad to over inflate their economy on paper and overvalue their currency has left them in much worse shape than the US is in. All the fake infrastructure projects they cheaped out on building are falling apart already and they don't have the money to band aid everything, let alone replacements. They're also getting ready to head into a huge labor shortage and population crisis thanks to the One Child Policy coming home to roost.

It's not that simple. It's not just the cheap labor. You'd have to replicate all the manufacturing infrastructure elsewhere that western companies have been massively investing in, a lot of which is highly specialized. That's what this whole Taiwan dust up is about. We don't give a fuck about Taiwan. It's about the massive computer chip industry we've built there. We are way more entangled with China than you think. We're basically in a mutually assured economic destruction situation.

 

[Motorcharge]

It's not that simple. It's not just the cheap labor. You'd have to replicate all the manufacturing infrastructure elsewhere that western companies have been massively investing in, a lot of which is highly specialized. That's what this whole Taiwan dust up is about. We don't give a fuck about Taiwan. It's about the massive computer chip industry we've built there. We are way more entangled with China than you think. We're basically in a mutually assured economic destruction situation.

I'm very aware, I've written at length on here about the Taiwan situation. I realize it's not as simple as picking up and moving, I'm just saying we're in a much better position to pivot back to a manufacturing economy if needed where China has very few options if they lost our manufacturing base. Especially if we started doing things like imposing sanctions, tarrifs, import bans, etc.

We're already getting ahead on chip foundries as well. TSMC has been building their newest facility out west for a few years now, Intel has a new foundry they're building here. That's far and away the biggest hurdle. Even the most complicated manufacturing doesn't come close to silicon production.

As I've said before, China will never actually move into Taiwan and gain any meaningful control over the operation of the foundries and factories there. It's almost impossible even if you take out the fact that most of those companies have been very vocal about how they'd sabotage everything before they'd let it fall into Chinese hands. It's less about the economic implications of China being able to produce modern chips and more about the fact that it would let them modernize huge parts of their military that they're not capable of currently.

Anyway that mutually assured economic destruction is basically most of my point about why the Chinese will never replace the USD. They can certainly undermine it, but the odds of the petro dollar being replaced are slim to none.

 

[Mikel]

 

[Mikel]

Not what my argetinean friend says.

 

[Splib]

It's far more likely we'd pull the usually fuckery to destabilize those countries from within and turn them against each other long before the dollar actually got replaced.

The other big factor here is to replace the dollar you'd need something capable of actually replacing it as a global operating currency which is highly unlikely to happen. Even if other countries are getting sick of the effects of the petro dollar, they're not stupid enough to replace us with worse countries like Russia or China who without a doubt will put themselves first where we don't. That's why we spend billions upon billions of dollars annually on foreign aid. It comes with all kind of stipulations, it's not charity. The biggest stipulation it normally comes with is agreements for us to be able to have military bases on foreign soil. As much as the military industrial complex and things like the CIA fucking suck, we really are dependent on them to maintain stability and the status of the petro dollar.

Redacted. Exception - Israel. No bases in Israel, and they are the largest recipient of US Aide.

In the Dutch Libertarian's Milei clip, Javier used extreme examples. Very extreme. A valid counter argument would be a tariff to equalize costs/ expenses instead of the 600% example he used and another is that many countries subsidize their exports leading to unfair economic conditions. He avoided that completely.

 

[Mikel]

A more neutral view I think. Some interesting comments too.

 

[arse_sidewards]

A more neutral view I think. Some interesting comments too.

I really don't like the near complete lack of inflation adjusted numbers and seat of the pants inflation adjusting he does. You can't toss up multi-year graphs of nominal values and not adjust for inflation when talking about a situation with high inflation like Argentina

 

[rockota]

I really don't like the near complete lack of inflation adjusted numbers and seat of the pants inflation adjusting he does. You can't toss up multi-year graphs of nominal values and not adjust for inflation when talking about a situation with high inflation like Argentina

Tell that to the US govt

 

[49willys_mogon]

 

[WaterH]

That was really good. I liked the way he called the Covid lock downs criminal. That guy keeps impressing me. I’ve always said there’s no where to go when the USA fails, but maybe there’s hope.

Edit, the other thing that was funny is he praised the U.N. after WWII and said it went astray 3 decades later. So basically he was saying everybody there was the problem. lol.

 

[Mikel]

 

[east_beast]

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop because it seems like it always does eventually in Central and South America but so far so good. I may need to start working on my Español because Argentina is looking like a mighty fine SHTF destination.

 

[Mikel]

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop because it seems like it always does eventually in Central and South America but so far so good. I may need to start working on my Español because Argentina is looking like a mighty fine SHTF destination.

What are the chances that Milei is going to fundamentally change Argentina? Pretty darn low I think.

Argentina is so thoroughly screwed up that even if the right policies are enacted (shrink government and unleash the free market), there is going to be a lot of pain, and whether the Argentinean people will vote to continue going in that direction is very debatable.

 

[Motorcharge]

What are the chances that Milei is going to fundamentally change Argentina? Pretty darn low I think.

Argentina is so thoroughly screwed up that even if the right policies are enacted (shrink government and unleash the free market), there is going to be a lot of pain, and whether the Argentinean people will vote to continue going in that direction is very debatable.

Time will certainly tell. Argentina was far enough down the hole that he's turned quite a bit around already and he is still popular from what I understand. I think domestically they're a small enough scale that what he's doing can be very effective. The real hurdle will be fitting into the world economy if they aren't capable of being largely self sustaining in the long run. Outside interference from the usual suspects to tank what he's doing could certainly also happen as it tends to in South America.

 

[east_beast]

Time will certainly tell. Argentina was far enough down the hole that he's turned quite a bit around already and he is still popular from what I understand. I think domestically they're a small enough scale that what he's doing can be very effective. The real hurdle will be fitting into the world economy if they aren't capable of being largely self sustaining in the long run. Outside interference from the usual suspects to tank what he's doing could certainly also happen as it tends to in South America.

Yep, outside interference is probably the biggest threat. The globalist absolutely do not want to see this work.

 

[Spreader]

Outside interference from the usual suspects to tank what he's doing could certainly also happen as it tends to in South America.

Probably a good thing they don't grow bananas or pineapple.
Also don't let anyone named Peron in the .gov.