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Housing market theories

For folks that actually believe Zillow prices are legit, I might be interested in where you get what yer smoking.
Even in hot markets areas they are roughly 1.5-2x what a CMA from a realtor or someone with access to the MLS to do a CMA will show.

As to interest rates...got a letter from a CC I have notifying me the rate went up to 16.25% because the prime went up. If anything raising the prime will be what puts the skids on home sales. With a stellar FICO and $ in the bank the current rates are in the 6% range which is ~4% higher than my 30 yr note rate I got 4 yrs ago.
Zillows within 10% either way here. Our house sold for $10k under Zillow. House across the street just sold for the same. In smaller markets it can be extremely inaccurate because it is just an algorithm, but in hot moving markets its very close.
 
MLS is blowing up with reductions. Going to watch it slide.

Talk to people/developers and they cant throw up the cracker boxes fast enough... but no new projects.
 
I just went under contract on a house. Hoping the market holds long enough to sell my current house after we move. Things still pretty strong in the school district Im in.
 
MLS is blowing up with reductions. Going to watch it slide.

Talk to people/developers and they cant throw up the cracker boxes fast enough... but no new projects.
I'm suprised people are actually buying the new ones with the high interest rates. Though I heard that many people locked in rates on new construction months ago at 4 ish.
 
I'm suprised people are actually buying the new ones with the high interest rates. Though I heard that many people locked in rates on new construction months ago at 4 ish.
$300k at 5.5% is the same if a house is new or 20 years old.
 
MLS is blowing up with reductions. Going to watch it slide.

Talk to people/developers and they cant throw up the cracker boxes fast enough... but no new projects.
What is the monthly payment difference? Just because prices are coming down doesn’t mean the mortgage is. You could be looking at an increased mortgage payment with a lower sale price because interest rates. The lower sale prices benefit the buyer hoping to have 20% down and avoid PMI.
 
$300k at 5.5% is the same if a house is new or 20 years old.
I guess I was assuming people were about tapped out buying their 300k subdivision architectural abortion at 3% and would be overextended paying 300@ 5.5% for it......

Aka rates go up now they can only afford 270 or so. I may be inadequately understanding how far into debt people will go
 
The pricing reductions you're seeing in a lot of places are just bullshit marketing. They're lowering asking prices to increase interest in the properties knowing people are going to come in and bid over the lowered asking prices. At least thats whats happening here. Demand is still through the roof, but they're manipulating the market to make it look like demand is decreasing when it isn't.
 
I guess I was assuming people were about tapped out buying their 300k subdivision architectural abortion at 3% and would be overextended paying 300@ 5.5% for it......

Aka rates go up now they can only afford 270 or so. I may be inadequately understanding how far into debt people will go
300k was 7-8 years ago here. July 2019 our house was 480 new, hit a peak of around 750, now sliding back to 680-700.
 
300k was 7-8 years ago here. July 2019 our house was 480 new, hit a peak of around 750, now sliding back to 680-700.
I guess I live in a cheap place. 320 in 19' and Zillow got up to 500 now shows mid 4's. No idea how accurate that is.

My questioning was not targeted at the price. More the rate increases. If you were tapped out at XXX @ 3% how the hell are you still buying the place by the time it's built and they want XXX @ 5.5 % :confused:

Edit: I never thought I would have made a mistake by not buying a 600k house in 19. I didn't need one. But now I'm watching the massive appreciation everyone in that price range got and am bummed I missed out on the crazy appreciation with borrowed $$
 
Local story on local real estate from 3 days ago.


Here's the opening quote "The residential real estate market shows no signs of cooling in Northwest Arkansas, where prices in the second quarter rose faster than anywhere else in the country, according to industry figures."

FWIW, I think this is an opinion forming piece rather than a report on actual news. Nobody wants smaller spaces as alleged in that article. Smaller spaces is what fuckers can afford, so lets condition people to believe that's what they want. Here nor there, our micro economy has proven in the past to be mostly insulated from the macro economy elsewhere. The 2006 crash elsewhere was a plateau or a slightly slower increase. I can easily see the same happening again.

Unfortunately, I can see our area being the next silicone valley boom. I don't think it will be that bad, but the large developers have developed most of the cheap and profitable lots and are moving to vertical construction, so now the .25 and half acre lots are going to be exclusive no matter how shitty they were built or are considered now. How bad it gets will depend on how many people come here and right now it's a shit ton. I will be leaving in the next 10 to 15 years if that or anything close happens to this place.
I'm in the same part of the world as you are and the market is stupid here. It does seem like things are starting to sit a bit longer than normal.
It has been next to impossible buying anything the last year and even worse trying to get something built.
 
I guess I live in a cheap place. 320 in 19' and Zillow got up to 500 now shows mid 4's. No idea how accurate that is.

My questioning was not targeted at the price. More the rate increases. If you were tapped out at XXX @ 3% how the hell are you still buying the place by the time it's built and they want XXX @ 5.5 % :confused:

Edit: I never thought I would have made a mistake by not buying a 600k house in 19. I didn't need one. But now I'm watching the massive appreciation everyone in that price range got and am bummed I missed out on the crazy appreciation with borrowed $$
No one saw clown world xl post 2019. I pulled a ton of money out of stocks expecting a down turn at any time as I was using logic and figured the economy was going to crash. No way did I expect to see record highs during and after the pandemic when people couldn't work. Housing was the same deal, my friends wife was shitting herself as she got her real estate license right before COVID, they were gearing up to hit the bread lines.

We got lucky as our shit box in Illinois sold for way the fuck more than it should have in less than 48hrs and we somehow didn't get into an insane bidding war buying down here, paid list and it was a smooth deal.
 
we somehow didn't get into an insane bidding war buying down here, paid list and it was a smooth deal.
Not surprising given the area. You're far enough outside Charlotte for housing not to be an issue.

Raleigh on the other hand is even worse than Richmond right now. We're in the middle of more than 600 units worth of apartments in 3 new buildings downtown with 2 more coming up with another 500+ units and they're saying Raleigh needs 50k more in the next 5 years with the growth they're seeing.
 
Not surprising given the area. You're far enough outside Charlotte for housing not to be an issue.

Raleigh on the other hand is even worse than Richmond right now. We're in the middle of more than 600 units worth of apartments in 3 new buildings downtown with 2 more coming up with another 500+ units and they're saying Raleigh needs 50k more in the next 5 years with the growth they're seeing.
This city has a weird housing market, it's either trailers or $500,000+ houses, not much for sale in the middle when we were looking. I have some co workers relocating for promotions to areas in Georgia and are having hard time finding a place, housing market is still pretty nuts down here it seems.
 
As I left work for lunch today, I picked up an unknown number on my cell....Was a realitor asking if I was intersted to sell my property, or if I had any other property to sell. Housing market is still hot here outside of Cincinnati.
 
Zilllow shows my offgrid mountain logcabin and 8 acres has actually went up .5% over the last 30 days. It has me at 317k, but it way off. It's more like 500k or more.
 
The pricing reductions you're seeing in a lot of places are just bullshit marketing. They're lowering asking prices to increase interest in the properties knowing people are going to come in and bid over the lowered asking prices. At least thats whats happening here. Demand is still through the roof, but they're manipulating the market to make it look like demand is decreasing when it isn't.

Depends on the house/area. The 600k+ rural are slipping, been listed 30-45+ days.

$500k tinder box in gentrification central? Californians go backshit crazy in a sight unseen bidding war
 
I guess I was assuming people were about tapped out buying their 300k subdivision architectural abortion at 3% and would be overextended paying 300@ 5.5% for it......

Aka rates go up now they can only afford 270 or so. I may be inadequately understanding how far into debt people will go
:lmao:

It has nothing to do with going into debt. If you have $15,000 saved up and want to buy a $300 house it’s hard. When you have $15,000 and you want to buy a $150 house it is more appealing.

Now apply the logic to a $600k house dropping to a $350k house.
 
I guess I live in a cheap place. 320 in 19' and Zillow got up to 500 now shows mid 4's. No idea how accurate that is.

My questioning was not targeted at the price. More the rate increases. If you were tapped out at XXX @ 3% how the hell are you still buying the place by the time it's built and they want XXX @ 5.5 % :confused:

Edit: I never thought I would have made a mistake by not buying a 600k house in 19. I didn't need one. But now I'm watching the massive appreciation everyone in that price range got and am bummed I missed out on the crazy appreciation with borrowed $$
$400k house with 20% down at 5.5% is $2,100/month using $2,400 for property taxes.

$550k house with 20% down at 3% is $2,138 with $2,400 in property taxes.

Essentially the mortgage payment is the same, and the XXX is coming down. Half of the people think XXX coming down means there is a crash and the bubble has started to pop. The other half can do math and see the home price isn't really changing month to month. People who can afford $2,100/month are buying a house for $2,100/month.


Zillow says my house is worth over half a mil. BULLSHIT! Closest thing to my house right now is listed at $545. They tried in June for $635K. Clearly people still think interest rates are low and it's a sellers market. Thankfully inflation is keeping EVERYTHING high.
 
$400k house with 20% down at 5.5% is $2,100/month using $2,400 for property taxes.

$550k house with 20% down at 3% is $2,138 with $2,400 in property taxes.

Essentially the mortgage payment is the same, and the XXX is coming down. Half of the people think XXX coming down means there is a crash and the bubble has started to pop. The other half can do math and see the home price isn't really changing month to month. People who can afford $2,100/month are buying a house for $2,100/month.


Zillow says my house is worth over half a mil. BULLSHIT! Closest thing to my house right now is listed at $545. They tried in June for $635K. Clearly people still think interest rates are low and it's a sellers market. Thankfully inflation is keeping EVERYTHING high.
My premise was based off of all the areas where people were saying process are not dropping. Hence my use of the same number at 3 & 5.5
In those cases their payments are going up quite a bit per month.


I completely agree with you that if the market is keeping an equitable monthly payment then nothing is really changing from a buyer's perspective. Things haven't dropped enough in my area that it makes up for the big mortgage percentage
 
My premise was based off of all the areas where people were saying process are not dropping. Hence my use of the same number at 3 & 5.5
In those cases their payments are going up quite a bit per month.


I completely agree with you that if the market is keeping an equitable monthly payment then nothing is really changing from a buyer's perspective. Things haven't dropped enough in my area that it makes up for the big mortgage percentage
The same people who were buying a $500k home at 3% are NOT the ones buying them now. People have been priced out of the market, but not everyone.
 
The same people who were buying a $500k home at 3% are NOT the ones buying them now. People have been priced out of the market, but not everyone.
Good point.

Something I also just thought of, I haven't heard about bidding wars recently. The dude bidding for a 500k house by going 100k over asking in cash (600total) is probably just fine buying the house for 500 with the higher rate.
 
About a month ago my broker friend told me 1k per 100k monthly payment is the rule of thumb cause most people have shitty credit and car payments and shit. my jaw dropped.
 
Good point.

Something I also just thought of, I haven't heard about bidding wars recently. The dude bidding for a 500k house by going 100k over asking in cash (600total) is probably just fine buying the house for 500 with the higher rate.
I personally believe the bidding wars is bullshit hype. Price the home low so multiple people put in offers, have them fighting and then tell your client “we have 27 offers and they’re all over asking price.” Exclude the face your priced it 30% below market value and you have stories of “oh man we got $50k over asking. Our realtor was awesome.”
 
I personally believe the bidding wars is bullshit hype. Price the home low so multiple people put in offers, have them fighting and then tell your client “we have 27 offers and they’re all over asking price.” Exclude the face your priced it 30% below market value and you have stories of “oh man we got $50k over asking. Our realtor was awesome.”
When I sold my Vegas house, (too soon BTW), I hired a Redfin agent first and she wanted to list it for about $50k under what I thought it was worth, but then she offered to do it at $30k less as a compromise. That compromise hit her in the ass on the way out the door. Next agent was from...I don't remember, and she wanted to list it low as well, I stood my ground with the understanding if we had no action we could lower the price. I got a full price offer in a couple weeks. Fuck those agents, they just want to turn and burn.
 
We poor. I haven't been able to afford to live here in years. We manage. Two or three months ago this would have been 1.8MM.

To whoever said earlier in the thread this is a sales gimmic and under priced. This sale will tell us in our hood.

One around the block a little bigger, but complete gut went for 1.8 less than a month ago. Not on the water :shaking:
 

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As I left work for lunch today, I picked up an unknown number on my cell....Was a realitor asking if I was intersted to sell my property, or if I had any other property to sell. Housing market is still hot here outside of Cincinnati.
I get 3-5 of those a week.

Don’t flatter yourself. It’s the newest spam.
 
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