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Housing market theories

Fullsize80cherokee said:
About a month ago my broker friend told me 1k per 100k monthly payment is the rule of thumb cause most people have shitty credit and car payments and shit. my jaw dropped.
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Wait what? So a $300k mortgage is 3k per month payment according to your dude?
 
Slander said:
Wait what? So a $300k mortgage is 3k per month payment according to your dude?
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Tin Roof said:
We’ve always been told $800/mo payment per $100k/loan. That’s with taxes/insurance included.
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ThePanzerFuhrer said:
This is closer than the 1000 figure.
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Fuck all of that :eek:

I currently have 480$ /100k taxes and insurance included. Apparently I'll never be able to sell this house when I move in a few years and have to rent the fucking thing if I'm getting that cheap of $$.
 
670 per 100k here in an expensive area to live tax wise some of best schools in state etc
 
DVanVorous said:
For folks that actually believe Zillow prices are legit, I might be interested in where you get what yer smoking.
Even in hot markets areas they are roughly 1.5-2x what a CMA from a realtor or someone with access to the MLS to do a CMA will show.

As to interest rates...got a letter from a CC I have notifying me the rate went up to 16.25% because the prime went up. If anything raising the prime will be what puts the skids on home sales. With a stellar FICO and $ in the bank the current rates are in the 6% range which is ~4% higher than my 30 yr note rate I got 4 yrs ago.
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Many years back the CEO of Zillow sold his Lake Washington house. The Zestimate for it was like 3 million higher than he got for his house.:lmao:

Its a best guess at most.
 
Still red hot here.

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We benefit heavily from the Asheville area being so outrageous. Folks want to be in Asheville and start looking around where else in NC is around this area and nice? Oh! Look here! This is nice, half the price, and half the distance to Charlotte! We'll just move here!
 
It looks like the prices have reached the plateau and are no longer climbing. The owners, lenders, and builders are very cautious, and many cannot yet decide whether they want to sell the house now or wait for a better time. It creates a housing stock surplus and could possibly lead to a housing market crash.
I personally tend to think it’s all because of Illuminati and the lizard people, but there are also more sane theories described at https://timthomas.co/signs-of-a-hоusing-market-crash/. No matter what the cause is, the fact is that it is way more difficult for Gen Z people to afford a house now than it was for their parents and grandparents.
 
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I just bought a house and am trying to sell my old one now. I went from getting beat out on houses when trying to buy to trying to sell and buyers walking away because they have multiple options in just a matter of weeks.

Ive already accepted I wont get what I would have for my old house. Its like the days of multiple cash bidding wars and 30k over asking got shut off light a light switch.

Oh well at least I got out of where i was at before I got priced out of where I went.
 
Animalmother said:
I just bought a house and am trying to sell my old one now. I went from getting beat out on houses when trying to buy to trying to sell and buyers walking away because they have multiple options in just a matter of weeks.

Ive already accepted I wont get what I would have for my old house. Its like the days of multiple cash bidding wars and 30k over asking got shut off light a light switch.

Oh well at least I got out of where i was at before I got priced out of where I went.
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Well, most of what I saw, limited market, of the multiple cash offers was young folks playing with money that really wasnt theirs. Free money from the government allowed them to spend it like it wasn’t theirs. All the “old money” passed on bidding wars and waited till the correct deal came along. As soon as interest rates went up it all stopped cold.

As to the under pricing to get bidding wars. That was area to area. Houses here, VRBO type houses, were listed at insane prices and still got 30 offers. People quit using local agents because agents were against trying to start bidding wars. Now all the locals that didnt sell or missed the bus are asking the local agents what they should price it at to get it to move.

Anyone with real money isn’t buying right now. They are waiting for the crash. We are already seeing some people dump their 2 year old purchase because VRBO’s are down a bit and inflation is stupid high. Suddenly they realized they way over paid and are in trouble. It’s probably going to be a blood bath in all reality inside of a year.
 
D Nelly said:
It's starting to change here. A few months ago 90% of houses would sell before the sign went up. Now you see the signs everywhere and we're starting to see price reduction. More houses on the market and the average 'time on market' is climbing by the day
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Same here.
My parents just sold theirs at what I was considering the downward start of the market. They sat listed for a month before finally selling. They did get their asking price, but no bidding wars. Seeing many houses dropping price now and still no buyers.
The interest rate hikes killed the prospective buyers pool, for now.

We do have Intel building within 25 mins from us though, so I suspect another housing bubble locally in the next year or so. But I sure as fuck hope that is NOT why surveyors have been finding property pins of the farmers land across the road from us. :mad3:
 
IMO it will all vary by location... for various and obvious (some not so obvious) reasons, MANY people are still inclined to believe that moving to rural areas is going to safeguard them from some unknown, catastrophic event. :laughing:

My area for example, which has become overpopulated in a pretty short amount of time is still relatively popular. It is somewhat rural however and is seemingly desirable for the radical type of demographics change taking place in the last couple of years. It has let up slightly but isn't at any slow enough rate to say it's going to stop.

Yet in the cities and more urban areas it seems to be the greatest urban flight in history... at least from what I have seen in my life. Makes a decision to relocate for the time being kind of tough. Land and build again is hardly worth it either with current materials costs. Just a matter of time for the bank owned and foreclosures to pop though. Cycle is about 5 years lagging... I expected this in 2018, with a downturn in 2019/20.
 
It's finally hit here in a small way. There was a house listed just up the road for a cool million, valuation in 2017 was roughly 600K. It's been on the market for a month and today they dropped it to 950K.

That same house if listed back in July would have went over to 1.1M easy. Gonna be interesting what they get for it when it sells.

I have to add that Oct and later is always a bad time to sell in these parts, market always cools off around then and will not pick up again until April or so.
 
TennPass said:
Same here.
My parents just sold theirs at what I was considering the downward start of the market. They sat listed for a month before finally selling. They did get their asking price, but no bidding wars. Seeing many houses dropping price now and still no buyers.
The interest rate hikes killed the prospective buyers pool, for now.

We do have Intel building within 25 mins from us though, so I suspect another housing bubble locally in the next year or so. But I sure as fuck hope that is NOT why surveyors have been finding property pins of the farmers land across the road from us. :mad3:
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Id be pessimistic :eek:

Its why i want 1k acres, so i dont have to give a shit what happens to any side of me:laughing:
 
flecker said:
Yet in the cities and more urban areas it seems to be the greatest urban flight in history... at least from what I have seen in my life. Makes a decision to relocate for the time being kind of tough. Land and build again is hardly worth it either with current materials costs. Just a matter of time for the bank owned and foreclosures to pop though. Cycle is about 5 years lagging... I expected this in 2018, with a downturn in 2019/20.
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Good. I want to see near anarchy in urban areas. I can thrive in that environment. :flipoff2:
 
I think it has come to a halt in my area. Pretty much all of 2021, and most of this spring, houses were double and some half again above double what they were in early 2020 and before. We had an influx of people moving to KY, (lake town) from all over out west who thought our inflated high prices were still low as fuck. Comparatively with places like CA, they were still right. We are still getting those folks, but the prices are way down now. a 2-300k house here, is a 3 million dollar house on the west coast.
 
BIL is a Lawyer, mainly real estate, in long island, Hamptons.

As of yesterday, he said the faucet turned off. No one is buying, perfect storm of rates and high appraisals. Now is when most of the rich dicks from the city buy/sell so they have a summer house. Hes convinced recession is on it's way. coming to a town near you

Clemson13 said:
Its why i want 1k acres, so i dont have to give a shit what happens to any side of me:laughing:
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You think that. Until neighbors, amongst others, want to poach. I've found blankets, cell phones, all sorts of random shit from meskins and were a couple hundred miles from the border.
 
Animalmother said:
I just bought a house and am trying to sell my old one now. I went from getting beat out on houses when trying to buy to trying to sell and buyers walking away because they have multiple options in just a matter of weeks.

Ive already accepted I wont get what I would have for my old house. Its like the days of multiple cash bidding wars and 30k over asking got shut off light a light switch.

Oh well at least I got out of where i was at before I got priced out of where I went.
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Good on you for cashing out before it was too late

I'm getting serious about buying not far from your location. It does seem like in the last month some sort of switch flipped. Inventory is slowing down and I get tons of price dropped notifications.

Seems like most of the really cool properties sold earlier this year. All thats left is the stuff that was way overpriced or just not appealing. I'm worried I'll be bottom feeding on whats left from the frenzy. Trying to wait as long as I can, lease is up in March and would really prefer not to rent for another year.
 
It's dying down in Central NY a bit. All the regular 150k houses are still moving but the high end homes are not.

It's tough to say what will happen in this area though with Amazon coming to town and the new micron plant slated to start construction in 2024.
 
Clemson13 said:
Id be pessimistic :eek:

Its why i want 1k acres, so i dont have to give a shit what happens to any side of me:laughing:
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I'm ok if it's divided up into 5+ acre plots like every other farm around here got in the last 25 years. What I don't fucking want is some low income modular developments, or god forbid condo/apartments anticipating the Intel rush. :mad3:
 
Thefishguy77 said:
Well, most of what I saw, limited market, of the multiple cash offers was young folks playing with money that really wasnt theirs. Free money from the government allowed them to spend it like it wasn’t theirs. All the “old money” passed on bidding wars and waited till the correct deal came along. As soon as interest rates went up it all stopped cold.
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interesting observation. Around here it was cash buyers able to close in 14 or 21 days winning the bidding wars; all price ranges $200k- $1mm+.

the nearby metro market has cooled but it’s still at unsustainable levels;
 

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WTF? said:
interesting observation. Around here it was cash buyers able to close in 14 or 21 days winning the bidding wars; all price ranges $200k- $1mm+.

the nearby metro market has cooled but it’s still at unsustainable levels;
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A good portion of folks who were "all cash buyers" were actually not. Finance companies were fronting to allow you to be an all cash buyer then converting you to a mortgage. For a fee of course:homer:

I wonder just how many folks fucked themselves out paying a fee to be a "cash buyer"then going 200k over asking

E.g

How To Make A Cash Offer Without The Cash | Better Mortgage

Nearly a quarter of July home sales were made in cash, and a new offering from Better can help you make one too. Not available in all states. See better.com/about-us/licensing-disclosure.
better.com better.com
 
Clemson13 said:
A good portion of folks who were "all cash buyers" were actually not. Finance companies were fronting to allow you to be an all cash buyer then converting you to a mortgage. For a fee of course:homer:

I wonder just how many folks fucked themselves out paying a fee to be a "cash buyer"then going 200k over asking
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Yup. In the last crash they were turning mortgages into securities. Now they've been turning securities into mortgages.

I'm sure it will be fine.
 
We were going to look at some acreage with a bunch of unpermitted structures in a couple weeks. Plan was to make a lowball cash offer.

RE agent called me yesterday and said they already have one full price cash offer and were expecting others. 700k property 2.5 hrs from SF bay area. Guess I gotta look a little further out, or wait a bit longer.:laughing:
 
Clemson13 said:
A good portion of folks who were "all cash buyers" were actually not. Finance companies were fronting to allow you to be an all cash buyer then converting you to a mortgage. For a fee of course:homer:

I wonder just how many folks fucked themselves out paying a fee to be a "cash buyer"then going 200k over asking

E.g

How To Make A Cash Offer Without The Cash | Better Mortgage

Nearly a quarter of July home sales were made in cash, and a new offering from Better can help you make one too. Not available in all states. See better.com/about-us/licensing-disclosure.
better.com better.com
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Yep. I accepted one of these offers on my last house. Turns out they also pepper the market with offers and bail on all but the one they like most that gets accepted. Really screws up the seller
 
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