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Housing market theories

Poke said:
That’s the new value, keep up. Not going back.

The housing prices are down, buying is down from months ago. We might be at the near the bottom of the dip
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Not a chance in hell. Average household income is well under 50k a year around here. Basic economics wont allow it to be permanent.
 
Dethmachinefab said:
Checked on mine, down 20k for the month.

Seeing more land on market for longer, and some with price reductions. I'll be real happy if it dumps hard and I can pick up a nice piece.
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Just checked mine. +2,477 (0.5%) over the past 30 days.

This area is still pretty hot. But it's also relatively dirt cheap compared to areas with similar offerings despite being relatively very expensive vs. a decade ago.

The house I sold in 2020? Down $31,254 (-4.0%). Still "worth" almost $200k than I sold it for though.
 
The house I sold in April dropped 7k last month (Zillow still says it's worth more than I sold it for). The house I sold in 2018 dropped 40k last month (still more than double what I sold it for). :eek:
 
They are predicting a HUGE recession comming! Way too much money has being printed! Student loan vote bribe/buy will be another hit! We are so fucked! :homer::lmao::homer::lmao::homer::lmao:
 
Around here, higher demand area, prices are still stable from spring for most part, high end 1m+ are slowing down. Anything under 750k sells within two weeks as long as its 'nice'. Really nice stuff is gone in a weekend for over ask and stuff that is way overpriced and unupdated sits.

In my mind as it should be in a healthy market.
 
We bought near the end of the '07-'09 crash. We're down $10K from a month ago, but still $200K over purchase and $260K over the current loan. I've no right to complain.

I'm seeing homes in areas we like dropping faster, as in $425K to $380K in a month. Once they drop enough we might grab one, keep both homes, stay here until the market recovers, and then bounce. It's either that or find land and slowly build...
 
I remember when the RE market began to slow down in 2006. This time it seems to be happening at a faster rate.
 
arse_sidewards said:
You know that the junk flipping is gonna be a lot harder when people are cash strapped, right?

Sure there will be more people looking for shit but you'll actually have to deal with them in a serious manner unlike you seem to be doing.
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Junk flipping is for when the market starts to bull run again. The crash is the time to score deals on good shit.
 
Zillow -2.4% last 30 days. And I'm in a hot housing market area too. First sign I've seen now but appears what is to come.:eek:

As Santa said. As soon as it bottoms, disputing with a Real Property Appeal Form to county is a very smart move.
 
Our house we sold in January is up $40k according to Zillow from when we sold it, $6777 in the last month. Markets still hot here.
 
Mikel said:
I remember when the RE market began to slow down in 2006. This time it seems to be happening at a faster rate.
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I mean, you have the Chair of the Fed in Jackson Hole basically telling everyone he's hellbent on jerking the e-brake to force us into deep recession no matter what. The Fed only has one tool and they should've been gradually increasing rates for the last 7-8 years. COVID threw gas on an already burning bonfire and now a lot of this current inflation is mainly in the supply side, not the demand side. But the Fed's only tool is primarily a demand side tool. So, they're gonna pound away with that hammer even though a wrench is what's needed.
 
For folks that actually believe Zillow prices are legit, I might be interested in where you get what yer smoking.
Even in hot markets areas they are roughly 1.5-2x what a CMA from a realtor or someone with access to the MLS to do a CMA will show.

As to interest rates...got a letter from a CC I have notifying me the rate went up to 16.25% because the prime went up. If anything raising the prime will be what puts the skids on home sales. With a stellar FICO and $ in the bank the current rates are in the 6% range which is ~4% higher than my 30 yr note rate I got 4 yrs ago.
 
DVanVorous said:
For folks that actually believe Zillow prices are legit, I might be interested in where you get what yer smoking.
Even in hot markets areas they are roughly 1.5-2x what a CMA from a realtor or someone with access to the MLS to do a CMA will show.

As to interest rates...got a letter from a CC I have notifying me the rate went up to 16.25% because the prime went up. If anything raising the prime will be what puts the skids on home sales. With a stellar FICO and $ in the bank the current rates are in the 6% range which is ~4% higher than my 30 yr note rate I got 4 yrs ago.
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zillows been ~100k behind here on most properties, but these smaller markets are harder to price. No one has a perfect model, but zillow is pretty good.
 
Santa said:
When the value on my house in Sacramento tanked in 08, all I had to do was fill out a form and mail it to the county and they lowered my taxes accordingly. YMMV up there.
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Didn't that catch a lot of people by surprise a few years later? Prop 13 does not protect you from the annual 2% increase if you have your property taxes reassessed at a lower rate. People were getting property tax increases of well over 2%, some up to 10%/year, as the housing market recovered and home prices increased. Taking the property tax reduction on the market value of your home seems like a win, but is one prepared to pay property taxes based on market value in a quickly raising market and losing out on the protections of prop 13?
 
Howdy said:
Didn't that catch a lot of people by surprise a few years later? Prop 13 does not protect you from the annual 2% increase if you have your property taxes reassessed at a lower rate. People were getting property tax increases of well over 2%, some up to 10%/year, as the housing market recovered and home prices increased. Taking the property tax reduction on the market value of your home seems like a win, but is one prepared to pay property taxes based on market value in a quickly raising market and losing out on the protections of prop 13?
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Is this some California bullshit you speak of?

Because it doesn't make any sense in the land of freedom (and heat, swamps, and mosquitos) :flipoff2:
 
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Clemson13 said:
Is this some California bullshit you speak of?

Because it doesn't make any sense in the land of freedom (and great, swamps, and mosquitos) :flipoff2:
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Yes....If it was not for prop 13 that was established in the late 1970's, there would be far less home owners in the state of CA because most would not be able to continue to pay the property taxes on their outrageously priced home.
 
Howdy said:
Didn't that catch a lot of people by surprise a few years later? Prop 13 does not protect you from the annual 2% increase if you have your property taxes reassessed at a lower rate. People were getting property tax increases of well over 2%, some up to 10%/year, as the housing market recovered and home prices increased. Taking the property tax reduction on the market value of your home seems like a win, but is one prepared to pay property taxes based on market value in a quickly raising market and losing out on the protections of prop 13?
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I don't recall having any huge increases.
 
Santa said:
I don't recall having any huge increases.
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I remember homeowners in my local facebook group around 2013 coming on there, crying about how much their property taxes went up and was everyone else experiencing the same. After many exchanges, it turned out the common denominator was the people with the huge increase took property tax reductions during the housing crash of 2008 and a few years following. It took a bit of time for the market to recover, so 6 or so years later people were starting to feel the effects of the correction on their property taxes as home prices started jumping again and they were forced to start paying taxes on the current value of their residence.

You might have sold before your taxes were re-adjusted, which certainly benefitted you.
 
Local story on local real estate from 3 days ago.

www.arkansasonline.com

Housing mindset changing in Northwest Arkansas | Arkansas Democrat Gazette

The residential real estate market shows no signs of cooling in Northwest Arkansas, where prices in the second quarter rose faster than anywhere else in the country, according to industry figures.
www.arkansasonline.com www.arkansasonline.com

Here's the opening quote "The residential real estate market shows no signs of cooling in Northwest Arkansas, where prices in the second quarter rose faster than anywhere else in the country, according to industry figures."

FWIW, I think this is an opinion forming piece rather than a report on actual news. Nobody wants smaller spaces as alleged in that article. Smaller spaces is what fuckers can afford, so lets condition people to believe that's what they want. Here nor there, our micro economy has proven in the past to be mostly insulated from the macro economy elsewhere. The 2006 crash elsewhere was a plateau or a slightly slower increase. I can easily see the same happening again.

Unfortunately, I can see our area being the next silicone valley boom. I don't think it will be that bad, but the large developers have developed most of the cheap and profitable lots and are moving to vertical construction, so now the .25 and half acre lots are going to be exclusive no matter how shitty they were built or are considered now. How bad it gets will depend on how many people come here and right now it's a shit ton. I will be leaving in the next 10 to 15 years if that or anything close happens to this place.
 
Some places still hotter than others. It seems like those places are where people are escaping from libtard states. That was the case with my recent home sale. I got the fuck out of that growing area of yuppie idiots and now back in middle of nowhere in a trailer where i belong:beer:
 
Norm said:
zillows been ~100k behind here on most properties, but these smaller markets are harder to price. No one has a perfect model, but zillow is pretty good.
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MAYBE N of where I am but certainly not in the Missoula/Lake county area. Wife did a CMA on our place and Zillow was in the $3/4M, doing a liberal CMA said more like $500k. Thats a 33% error... Given she works for an active brokerage doing market analysis for realtors in CA she has run into the same thing in the LA and SF market.
Then too CA is a full disclosure state and MT isn't, so ones MMV when discussing MT pricing...
 
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