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Housing market theories

Reading these replies I think I'm on the right track by trying to gather up cheap homesites for my kids





I work primarily for developer/builders and investors on new residential construction.

For the past 15 years, I've had a couple of projects in the pipeline every year consisting of detached single family homes. They're "starter homes" with 6' between houses, 6-12 houses per acre, and between 10 and 60 homes on each project. Purchase prices have escalated from ~$280k to $400k+ over the years. We're finishing one up this fall that I bid in 2022.

Now is the first time in 15 years I don't have one of those in the pipeline. The builders doing them have either quit or are pivoting to 100+ unit apartment complexes. We've done a 9 and 20 unit townhouse projects this summer, and it turns out they're all Air BnB's.

The investors are the other side of the coin. 10 years ago they were excited to bring a spec to market for $699k "because there's nothing under $700k." Now the specs we're working on start at $2m. We're starting a $6m spec next week.

Long story short, the barrier into property ownership is only getting higher in our market.

Thanks for sharing that data
 
Post the link.

It’s a local wholesale list, it’s not listed on the mls. If you’re interested send me your email and I’ll forward it to you.

I understand where you are coming from, but it's also a completely different cost of living now as well. Inflation is eating up income regardless of wasteful spending.

Not disagreeing but you have to be able to save in order to afford a house unless your family is bankrolling you or you find money somewhere.

There's affordable starter homes around here as well. I saw a 3/1 that has new windows, siding, bathroom remodel, and electrical service upgrade listed this week for $60k. Just needs the walls finished in the rest of the house (tape and mud then paint). In another town close by there's a 3/1 with two stall detached garage for $80k.

I think that’s the big difference 20-40 year olds feel like they “deserve” to have a home like they are seeing in social media, generally that’s not realistic. So it’s not that there aren’t homes available there aren’t homes they like that are available in their price range.
 
It's hard as hell for young people to save when rent and groceries are giraffe's ass high. I don't think anyone is arguing that it's impossible but I'd also be lying my ass off if I didn't admit that it's way harder for someone coming of age right now with the cost of rent and overall cost of living vs. wages than it was for me and I'm only 42. It got really out of whack really fast. The housing market crash was barely even a speed bump. Shit took off like a bottle rocket again.
 
Thats $350k+ here depending on location. Edit for clarification. These homes don't come up for sale. It should sell for $250k based on sf.
Saw that and went to Realtor and couldn't find anything comparable under $350k without looking in the ghetto ghetto and even at $350k everything near that price range is trashed inside or mid realtor makeover that they gave up on.

I'm cool with a 1200 sq ft rancher that needs an interior overhaul all day long, but I'm sure as shit not paying $350k for that unless it sits on a few acres.
 
The government's response to Covid screwed up everything. It seemed like there was a 'balance' with everything before that. It will probably take many years to achieve that balance again.
 
Saw that and went to Realtor and couldn't find anything comparable under $350k without looking in the ghetto ghetto and even at $350k everything near that price range is trashed inside or mid realtor makeover that they gave up on.

I'm cool with a 1200 sq ft rancher that needs an interior overhaul all day long, but I'm sure as shit not paying $350k for that unless it sits on a few acres.
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The government's response to Covid screwed up everything. It seemed like there was a 'balance' with everything before that. It will probably take many years to achieve that balance again.
I would've never dreamed that housing was going to keep skyrocketing. COVID was the final straw that made us sell and evacuate Colorado (more like Colofornia). We had already been considering it with the soaring cost of living out there and the rapid Californication happening not to mention having a small child and being across the country from any family. So when COVID hit it kinda felt like now or never. We're not going to be aable to afford to leave of housing crashes and we end up upside down in this place.
 
It’s a local wholesale list, it’s not listed on the mls. If you’re interested send me your email and I’ll forward it to you.



Not disagreeing but you have to be able to save in order to afford a house unless your family is bankrolling you or you find money somewhere.



I think that’s the big difference 20-40 year olds feel like they “deserve” to have a home like they are seeing in social media, generally that’s not realistic. So it’s not that there aren’t homes available there aren’t homes they like that are available in their price range.
Not interested, just looking for context because that is $300k+ west of the plains.
 
It's hard as hell for young people to save when rent and groceries are giraffe's ass high. I don't think anyone is arguing that it's impossible but I'd also be lying my ass off if I didn't admit that it's way harder for someone coming of age right now with the cost of rent and overall cost of living vs. wages than it was for me and I'm only 42. It got really out of whack really fast. The housing market crash was barely even a speed bump. Shit took off like a bottle rocket again.

Like I said earlier, it's both. Sure, a big problem is younger adults entitlement combined with lack of budget.... and also my home value doubled '18-'24 while my family's income went up 10%. And mortgage interest rates tripled.

Being 22-30 years old with a good middle class job in Texarkana in 2019 and looking for a home was a different planet than the same circumstances in 2024. There's no amount of "just buckle down and save harder" that's going to make up the difference of your $100k starter home at 2.7% suddenly becoming $190k at 6%.
 
Saw that and went to Realtor and couldn't find anything comparable under $350k without looking in the ghetto ghetto and even at $350k everything near that price range is trashed inside or mid realtor makeover that they gave up on.

I'm cool with a 1200 sq ft rancher that needs an interior overhaul all day long, but I'm sure as shit not paying $350k for that unless it sits on a few acres.
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Tin Roof That's a $700k place where I am. :clown:

I think that’s the big difference 20-40 year olds feel like they “deserve” to have a home like they are seeing in social media, generally that’s not realistic. So it’s not that there aren’t homes available there aren’t homes they like that are available in their price range.
It goes deeper than that.

Home inspections routinely churn up 5 digits of deficiencies on an older starter-home. Sellers won't eat it. Buyers won't risk it. Nevermind the fact a family is paying $2500-3000 rent to live in that fine place.

Some sellers will drop the listing, throw $20k at their house, and re-list next year for $100k more. Some are going to take a low-ball from a developer and then that starter home is gone.

This is likely a bigger problem where the population centers have fully occupied their usable geography. Ocean, mountains, and border impose some limits here.

So the Canadian economy is going to implode soon then? How do you cope with that when your mortgage goes from 3% to 7% overnight? :eek:

Maybe - we will see. Breaking people is not lucrative though.

Like I said, your mortgage just gets stretched out longer. As things are, the banks clearly feel it's better for themselves to keep you as an interest-slave than foreclose and try to sell your house in a stagnating inflated market.
 
How do you cope with that when your mortgage goes from 3% to 7% overnight? :eek:
It's no big deal really... you currently owe on 18 years at 3% they just bump it up to 30 at 7% and your payment stays relatively the same.

[american_debt_comprehension] "It doesn't cost you any extra money. It's like totally not a problem."
 
Sounds like time to get the hell out of bc.

You see that here as well with older homes needing work then people will offer asking then after inspection they will ask for 100k off or more. I’ve got a buddy who does that and always asks for estimates with extra meat on them.
 
It's no big deal really... you currently owe on 18 years at 3% they just bump it up to 30 at 7% and your payment stays relatively the same.

[american_debt_comprehension] "It doesn't cost you any extra money. It's like totally not a problem."

Had a buddy just do that, first 5 years are locked at 3 % then variable from there. He isn’t planning on staying in the house past 3 years before moving so works out for him.
 
It's no big deal really... you currently owe on 18 years at 3% they just bump it up to 30 at 7% and your payment stays relatively the same.

[american_debt_comprehension] "It doesn't cost you any extra money. It's like totally not a problem."
That seems totally fucked. At least it looks like they're rates a a couple percent lower than ours.
 
Sounds like time to get the hell out of bc.

You see that here as well with older homes needing work then people will offer asking then after inspection they will ask for 100k off or more. I’ve got a buddy who does that and always asks for estimates with extra meat on them.
Some of us got into the market early enough that it won't be a problem.

Better to stay at this point. If I try to leave, I'll face antics like your buddy is trying. :laughing:
 
It's no big deal really... you currently owe on 18 years at 3% they just bump it up to 30 at 7% and your payment stays relatively the same.

[american_debt_comprehension] "It doesn't cost you any extra money. It's like totally not a problem."

And iirc, the canucks go up to 40 yr terms, so they can do it again one more cycle in 5 more yrs too…
 
And iirc, the canucks go up to 40 yr terms, so they can do it again one more cycle in 5 more yrs too…
That's a recent increase.

The max yo-yo's around to ensure the banks don't starve.
 
This is about the cheapest starter in my county, there are a few old 1920's 2 bed 1 bath a bit cheaper.



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That's a recent increase.

The max yo-yo's around to ensure the banks don't starve.
Just got off the phone with our bank (RBC) we are up for renewal Nov 8. As of today the rates are fixed at
7 year 5.25
5 year 4.44
4 year 4.34
3 year 4.51
2 year 5.39
1 year 5.82

I got them to reserve a 5 year at 4.44 and will revisit in 2 weeks after the next BOC announcement when the predictions are a .5 point drop (got my fingers crossed)

This will almost double our rate as we signed on at 2.25 when we bought this place.
 
If rates go way down to they offer a choice to lower prices or the term?
Yes, but can come with a penalty to break a fixed-rate term agreement. On a variable you can choose to lock in at a lower rate.

Most mortgages nowadays allow you to overpay directly on principal to speed things up. The annual limit on this extra varies.
 
Yes, but can come with a penalty to break a fixed-rate term agreement. On a variable you can choose to lock in at a lower rate.

Most mortgages nowadays allow you to overpay directly on principal to speed things up. The annual limit on this extra varies.
Yikes, when it's paid off it's just taxes and insurance like here though right?
 
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