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Housing market theories

My market timing is always the WORST!

I bought my home in Fruita Colorado in 2008, rode through the plunge and sold it 10 years later for a little more than I paid for it. Paid 198K in 08, sold it for 230K in 19. It sold again for 385K last year and Zillow says it’s worth 400k now. I’d like to move back there but wages don’t match home prices so not happening.

I loved Fruita. California is flooding Denver in droves. Denverites are moving west in droves with cash.
 
I bought at 178k (2017), owe 160k, did a covid refi at 3% to drop PMI so that set it back about $6k.

Zillow estimates $278k right now. :smokin:


Rocket tried to get me into a debt consolidation the other day. Thought they could get me back to 5%, and drop my truck and sled payments. :laughing:

I have the cash to pay off everything but the mortgage. Just no reason to when the banks were giving me money at 2-3%.
 
2big bronco said:
Yes... havnt gotten the apraisel yet but 50% would be worst case scenario
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I was just going to question what variety of real estate in your area fits into $345k... trying to subdivide parking spaces in my mind... :flipoff2:

Seeing "recession is coming" headlines this week. Still don't really know what that means for RE prices, still trying to get comfortable enough to go for a rental or something.
 
ScottRS said:
I was just going to question what variety of real estate in your area fits into $345k... trying to subdivide parking spaces in my mind... :flipoff2:

Seeing "recession is coming" headlines this week. Still don't really know what that means for RE prices, still trying to get comfortable enough to go for a rental or something.
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It’s all
Supply and demand .

A 3/3 brick ranch on Five acres in central alabama is under $100k
 
ScottRS said:
I was just going to question what variety of real estate in your area fits into $345k... trying to subdivide parking spaces in my mind... :flipoff2:

Seeing "recession is coming" headlines this week. Still don't really know what that means for RE prices, still trying to get comfortable enough to go for a rental or something.
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I'm in the same spot. Just waiting it out right now.
 
roundhouse said:
It’s all
Supply and demand .

A 3/3 brick ranch on Five acres in central alabama is under $100k
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And location location location... 2BB is, according to his location, about halfway between Santa Cruz and Monterey. In the land of $140k/year poverty.

As for the Alabama ranch, I'm not necessarily opposed to that as an investment/income property, I just get skittish about something that's a 12+ hour drive from home and forces me into the property management revenue stream. Is that generating income at that point? Or just a safer investment than the stock market?
 
was at the minneapolis "pronouns in bio" steelyard today (they're the only place I know in the area with a pressbrake for hire, gonna correct that very soon and find somewhere else next time I've got that kinda work)

overheard one of the yard walkers bitching about how they can afford a 200k house now, but greedy people are asking 500k or more now
zero awareness of how much the dollar has been devalued, just parroting the commie bullshit they've been spoon fed

Oh well, at least only a large portion of society is that gleefully ignorant and not all of it.
 
Prices in our area are still high as giraffe pussy, the supply is limited and the demand is high. I'm glad I am comfortable where I am.
 
It makes sense that living rent-free for years could give them a solid down payment, and now they’re ready to settle down. I’ve seen it firsthand with friends who did just that—they saved up a good chunk while living with their parents and jumped into the housing market.It's wild how quickly inventory can disappear when a lot of buyers suddenly enter the market. A buddy of mine was looking to invest in real estate and ended up shifting his focus to Singapore property investment. He found some great opportunities there, and it seems to be a smart move with the market trends. It’s definitely a consideration if you’re looking at where to put your money while prices rise.
 
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I bought a house last year after living below my means for years.
Everything is so expensive that I have to live even more frugally now.
Lost a good chunk of disposable income from it.

But fuck it, house ownership was a goal and I'm making it happen.
 
Sales are off ~45% from the peak in 22, currently around 3.5 million annual units while peak was ~6.7 million in 07 and 22. Tough time to be a real estate agent.
 
Sales activity is way down here, but prices barely change. Nobody can afford to lose on housing, so they just hang in there.

The single-wide down the road is listed at $579k.
 
The builder conglomerate has stopped building new townhouses since other/larger townhouses are starting to sell for a cheaper price.

I'm seeing small starter houses with a garage for the same prices. Somehow my house is going up from zillows estimate:confused:
 
gunracer1 said:
heard a realtor this morning saying the condos she was sell at 450 are barely selling for 200k now. the place i was looking at in colorado had the appraisal drop 30% in a little over a year.
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I been thinking.

During the covid time, people without a bunch of $$ to throw around to buy into a home were screwed.

But this trend of selling at lower prices, despite the higher interest, can be a good thing for some people.

An example

20% down payment

  • $40,000 for a $200,000 home
  • $90,000 for a $450,000 home


Homes they couldn't get due to insufficient down payment or the costs associated with buying a home may become a reality now.
 
CJF said:
^^^
Who's this fuck?
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Put the pitch fork down for now, just looks like a new guy lol

Edit: wow there’s lots of them today. Pitch forks up?
 
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TrailTamer said:
I been thinking.

During the covid time, people without a bunch of $$ to throw around to buy into a home were screwed.

But this trend of selling at lower prices, despite the higher interest, can be a good thing for some people.

An example

20% down payment

  • $40,000 for a $200,000 home
  • $90,000 for a $450,000 home


Homes they couldn't get due to insufficient down payment or the costs associated with buying a home may become a reality now.
Click to expand...

Down payment is the least of your worries unless you’re terrible with money. Your monthly payment on the house at 200 at 7.5% will be comparable to a house at 450 at 3%. The vast majority of people are approved for a loan via income streams, not many people are plopping down 500k cash on a house.

IMG_8655.jpeg
 
Pocahontas said:
Down payment is the least of your worries unless you’re terrible with money.
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Ummm what?

The downpayment is a huge hurdle. Most folks can't even scratch 5% together because of COL. Then they have to qualify at 7-8% for a 5-6% mortgage.
 
u2slow said:
Ummm what?

The downpayment is a huge hurdle. Most folks can't even scratch 5% together because of COL. Then they have to qualify at 7-8% for a 5-6% mortgage.
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Do all those people always have the newest and best shit, car note paying for streaming and tons of other bs.

If your looking at a house And saving for a down payment and approved for a 400k plus loan you should be able to save 1.5-2k a month fairly comfortably by cutting out needless spending.

If not what are you going to do when shit hits the fan with the house payment?

There’s tons of houses available that are cheaper but people don’t want to live in them because they are outdated and in not great locations either subpar neighborhoods or far commute.

Maybe I’m just jaded about people complaining about prices while walking around with brand new clothes, brand new car and Amazon stopping at their house 4 times a day while going out for every meal.
 
Pocahontas said:
Maybe I’m just jaded about people complaining about prices while walking around with brand new clothes, brand new car and Amazon stopping at their house 4 times a day while going out for every meal.
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It's both. The inflation spike sucks bad, and also tons of would be 1st time buyers living in a duplex, driving a '25 Durastroke, $50k SXS, credit card minimum payment etc and think they've gotta have the 2900ft McMansion on the 3600ft lot for them the wife and 2 foofoo dogs as their first home.
 
Pocahontas said:
Down payment is the least of your worries unless you’re terrible with money. Your monthly payment on the house at 200 at 7.5% will be comparable to a house at 450 at 3%. The vast majority of people are approved for a loan via income streams, not many people are plopping down 500k cash on a house.

IMG_8655.jpeg
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The down payment is the biggest hurdle though. You can always refinance when interest rates drop but if you don't have the liquid cash to meet the down payment you're SOL.
 
east_beast said:
The down payment is the biggest hurdle though. You can always refinance when interest rates drop but if you don't have the liquid cash to meet the down payment you're SOL.
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Having money requires saving, planning and self control. A lot of people aren’t capable of saving 100k for a down payment because the lack one of those things. If you can’t save for a down payment but are approved for xyz number you need to have a close look at your finances.

Even if you are renting for 2k a month and swap it for a mortgage with no money down you still have more outlay per month via insurance, property taxes, maintenance/property upkeep without changing a single thing. 99.99% of the time you won’t be able to buy a house for cheaper than you can rent one on a yearly basis. So if you can’t save money you can’t buy a house, it’s that simple.
 
Pocahontas I understand what you’re saying.

however you’re talking black and white. It’s like comparing Fl-Krawler and waterhead Florida men.

I was referring to first time homebuyers, in their 20’s-30’s with some savings. A “grey” area.
 
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