Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

[WTF?]

Don’t want anyone to think I think I’m above living in a trailer house. Lived in them growing up. Lived in one from 2019 through 2022. I mean it when say I don’t prioritize my living situation over traveling and racing. A nice house with green grass is not even on my long list of desires, let alone the short one. A trailer would suit me just fine. I’m just in the very beginning stages of working my way through the process of purchasing my own place again. Haven’t signed exclusivity with a realtor yet but I’m talking to a couple different ones. Got pre approval for a mortgage for certain conditions.

No denying that All else being equal, a stick built house will be a better investment than a mobile home, and probably more likely to appreciate with a larger pool of potential buyers when you decide to sell.

but given your budget and wishlist, you’ll probably find 10 mobile home options for every 1 stick built one that hits the market.

 

[east_beast]

And you can always build a house on the property later.

 

[BillyBronco]

Texas?

Yes, a suburb of Austin. Everyone around me brags about my house went up XXXX but I am actually a bit upset. Since I am not moving anytime soon I just get to pay more taxes. My job keeps me tied here or I would likely cash out my $700k equity and buy a cheaper house in a cheaper area or state.

And OP don’t buy a mobile home unless you have to. They lag behind actual houses in appreciation. I don’t you aren’t buying for appreciation but it is a nice side effect of owning an actual house over a mobile home.

 

[TRINDU]

Yes, a suburb of Austin. Everyone around me brags about my house went up XXXX but I am actually a bit upset. Since I am not moving anytime soon I just get to pay more taxes. My job keeps me tied here or I would likely cash out my $700k equity and buy a cheaper house in a cheaper area or state.

The only people who truly benefit from higher property values are the government and real estate agents. Both are asswipes.

Say you 'cash out' ... if you don't spend every dime on the next property, IRS is standing there with their hand out for 30%. Not everyone wants to be a slum lord and deal with squatters, so you're still on the hook for the taxes.

They fuck you at the drive-through...

The real estate has severely outpaced wages in wilco.

 

[45acp]

The only people who truly benefit from higher property values are the government and real estate agents. Both are asswipes.

It only works out if you've inherited a place and decide to move there and maybe fix it up, or if you're moving (and staying moved) to a low cost of living area, aka the middle class So-Cal family selling out and moving to flyover country and suddenly becoming upper middle class even though they're taking a significant pay cut.

In 95% of the situations I can think of, it's never good when my property value almost doubles in 4 years.

 

[DRTDEVL]

Yes, a suburb of Austin. Everyone around me brags about my house went up XXXX but I am actually a bit upset. Since I am not moving anytime soon I just get to pay more taxes. My job keeps me tied here or I would likely cash out my $700k equity and buy a cheaper house in a cheaper area or state.

And OP don’t buy a mobile home unless you have to. They lag behind actual houses in appreciation. I don’t you aren’t buying for appreciation but it is a nice side effect of owning an actual house over a mobile home.

3 houses on my block sold at or near the top of the market for way more than I think they are worth. Lucky me, I get to see another 32% tax increase next year after the 34% increase for this year.

 

[posford]

Say you 'cash out' ... if you don't spend every dime on the next property, IRS is standing there with their hand out for 30%.

Not 100% true, capital gains only applies if you haven't lived there for 2 of the last 5 years OR the profit is over $250k

 

[arse_sidewards]

It only works out if you've inherited a place and decide to move there and maybe fix it up, or if you're moving (and staying moved) to a low cost of living area, aka the middle class So-Cal family selling out and moving to flyover country and suddenly becoming upper middle class even though they're taking a significant pay cut.

In 95% of the situations I can think of, it's never good when my property value almost doubles in 4 years.

It also works for the people who want to cash out of a state they've spend their lifetime voting to fuck over while simultaneously downsizing. They pocket the difference. Soil Expert(TM) being a pretty archetypal example.

 

[JR4X]

another sign that the bubble is bursting. I just got a message from the first lender I got pre approved for a mortgage from. They have “new program” that will allow them to give me a $315,000 dollar mortgage at 6.75% interest with 0% down. I have good credit and they are pushing hard to get me to buy something I don’t want.

What does that say to you as far as market health. Inflation. Etc.

 

[mobil1syn]

What does that say to you as far as market health. Inflation. Etc.

high interest rates have stalled out the purchase of homes, lenders need loans to make money. when demand drops, you drop the price to make the deal more attractive.

around here builders were buying points for 3-5yrs on new construction to get people to buy them.

 

[Norm]

A new apartment complex they are building in town, stopped halfway through construction a couple weeks ago. Now that project is for sale for 7.5 million. Someone ran out of $$. Other than that I see more houses for sale here and none of them selling. They are still building a few new houses, but I think that is backlog from last year. Doesn't look good from here.

 

[JR4X]

around here builders were buying points for 3-5yrs on new construction to get people to buy them.

How does that even work? My realtor keeps telling me to ask for concessions and to just make offers.

 

[mobil1syn]

How does that even work? My realtor keeps telling me to ask for concessions and to just make offers.

most of the time the lender will offer you an option to reduce the interest rate with cash up front. on my last refi i did the math i needed to be there 8 years to break even, then after that i would see the 'savings' so to speak. MOST people are driven by the cost of the payment, not the cost of the item. the contractor doesnt have to drop the price, but with some cash can make the payment more appealing leveraging people emotional state of getting a bargain because of the 'savings'

a little discussion here, wild what has changed in the last 4yrs. mortgage

 

[bad zuki]

Here is an example of a buy down near me. People are still buying these 3 BD/BT "from the upper $200k" ($299,990)

Market it leveling out IMHO. Money is still moving here, but we didn't loose much property value during 2008.

 

[jpmassey]

another sign that the bubble is bursting. I just got a message from the first lender I got pre approved for a mortgage from. They have “new program” that will allow them to give me a $315,000 dollar mortgage at 6.75% interest with 0% down. I have good credit and they are pushing hard to get me to buy something I don’t want.

What does that say to you as far as market health. Inflation. Etc.

It says that volume is low. Not great to be a mortgage broker right now. But, prices aren't dropping here, infact, it's still going up and up, particularly land. Inventory is very low. Single family houses are selling in a couple days.

 

[Gtrplyr78]

another sign that the bubble is bursting. I just got a message from the first lender I got pre approved for a mortgage from. They have “new program” that will allow them to give me a $315,000 dollar mortgage at 6.75% interest with 0% down. I have good credit and they are pushing hard to get me to buy something I don’t want.

What does that say to you as far as market health. Inflation. Etc.

Rats trying to get scraps from a sinking ship.

Companies servicing real estate will fold all around us, that being said the housing market prices will remain steady or artificially raised - easy money for local governments playing property tax game.

 

[RSWORDS]

We are selling our house. Bought in 2016 for $250,000 and just listed it for $450,000. Realtor put a "coming soon" out last wednesday and will not be live on the MLS until this Wednesday. Realtor alredy has 3 solid days of showings lined up and people trying to send cash offers sight unseen.

I hope it doesnt burst for another month

Side note, I put a contract on a $150,000 1,100 sq ft house that I;m going to live in while I build another. Got 6.25% with 5% down.

 

[Projectjunkie]

Chatting up a bank teller the other day, at my credit union, she was a mortgage officer and saw it getting slow, she transferred down to a teller and got news of layoffs in her old department within the last 6mo

Realtor friend of mine says that things have slowed down, some, she's got that eternal "its always a great time to buy a house!"... but sold her house and is renting for the 1st time in 15 years

says that builders are buying down rates big time to close deals

I imagine the builders want to make concessions on the mortgage versus the price, do that they can sell the house next door for the top line got the high price to a cash buyer

 

[JR4X]

So. I found a place I’m interested in and in my price range.

My spidy sense are telling me to abort mission because mortgage companies are throwing offers to me that I didn’t ask for. They’ll give 315K with 0 percent down and 6.75 percent interest. I never asked for a no money down loan. So if I close next month the market is going to be upside by august if history repeats itself.

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.

 

[Norm]

So. I found a place I’m interested in and in my price range.

My spidy sense are telling me to abort mission because mortgage companies are throwing offers to me that I didn’t ask for. They’ll give 315K with 0 percent down and 6.75 percent interest. I never asked for a no money down loan. So if I close next month the market is going to be upside by august if history repeats itself.

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.

i smell blood in the water, that being said it can takes years for the housing market to correct. So how soon do you need a place and how long are planning on staying? This isn't 2008 with a ton of stinky mortgages, but I would expect a 10%-20% correction in the next 36 months that could take 6 years to get back to 2023 levels. Can you stomach taking it on loan values for 6 years

Other than the starter market and over over 1.2 million vacation homes our market is dead right now. FHA is reporting 10% delinquency rate .

 

[RusM]

So. I found a place I’m interested in and in my price range.

My spidy sense are telling me to abort mission because mortgage companies are throwing offers to me that I didn’t ask for. They’ll give 315K with 0 percent down and 6.75 percent interest. I never asked for a no money down loan. So if I close next month the market is going to be upside by august if history repeats itself.

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.

I think we're back to needing to be in a place 7 years before you can sell it and not pay to move. So if you can afford it, want to be back in a house and will be there awhile you should do it.

 

[BillyBronco]

So. I found a place I’m interested in and in my price range.

My spidy sense are telling me to abort mission because mortgage companies are throwing offers to me that I didn’t ask for. They’ll give 315K with 0 percent down and 6.75 percent interest. I never asked for a no money down loan. So if I close next month the market is going to be upside by august if history repeats itself.

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.

It if is what you want at a price you can afford buy it. Don’t settle though. While the price MAY drop a bit I don’t think most areas will see the 2009-2012 reductions. For most places in the US there will be price stagnation and maybe some slight price pull backs in the coming 2-5 years. The biggest pull backs will likely be ins some of the areas that saw the highest increases.

TDLR if you find exactly what you want for a price you want to pay then buy it. If rates come down a little in the next few years you can refi and it will be “cheaper” payment. I don’t see rates going up bigly in the next 2-5 years. You are probably near peak rate height. So if you can afford at this rate than you can likely refi at a lower rate if it drops provided the value doesn’t plummet and I don’t see that for most areas of the US.

 

[arse_sidewards]

Even ignoring broader market trends, a year is a long time for a better deal to come along.

 

[JR4X]

i smell blood in the water, that being said it can takes years for the housing market to correct. So how soon do you need a place and how long are planning on staying? This isn't 2008 with a ton of stinky mortgages, but I would expect a 10%-20% correction in the next 36 months that could take 6 years to get back to 2023 levels. Can you stomach taking it on loan values for 6 years

Other than the starter market and over over 1.2 million vacation homes our market is dead right now. FHA is reporting 10% delinquency rate .

I either have to jump in the next 3 weeks or wait 10 months.

I don’t know how long I’ll end up living here. I don’t want to be here now. But it looks more realistic that I’ll be here for years.

The place I’m looking at isn’t really going to be anyone’s first round draft pick. Nice piece of land with a ton of space to do what I want to do with it. Has a decent shop on it nicely remodeled on the inside double wide that’s had the frame removed out from underneath it and sitting on a poured cement foundation.

 

[Chkn]

Bought my house 2 years ago and it’s still appreciating. Albeit at a slower rate. If you can afford it, and it’s something that works for you then do it.

 

[jpmassey]

It's impossible to time the market. I held off on a great deal in April 2020 b/c I thought the market would crash. Instead the house doubled in price.

 

[arse_sidewards]

Buy it.

 

[2big bronco]

Buy it, the money spent in rent for the next 4 years waiting will help offset any correction.

 

[BigBurt]

So. I found a place I’m interested in and in my price range.

My spidy sense are telling me to abort mission because mortgage companies are throwing offers to me that I didn’t ask for. They’ll give 315K with 0 percent down and 6.75 percent interest. I never asked for a no money down loan. So if I close next month the market is going to be upside by august if history repeats itself.

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.

If you don’t think you’ll hit financial hardship within the next 5-10 years and don’t need to sell I can’t see why not. Atleast some percentage of payment will go in your pocket and not into a landlords. You could also make extra payments if you want to have equity so long as it’s allowed per the mortgage.

 

[WashingtonMatt]

i smell blood in the water, that being said it can takes years for the housing market to correct. So how soon do you need a place and how long are planning on staying? This isn't 2008 with a ton of stinky mortgages, but I would expect a 10%-20% correction in the next 36 months that could take 6 years to get back to 2023 levels. Can you stomach taking it on loan values for 6 years

Other than the starter market and over over 1.2 million vacation homes our market is dead right now. FHA is reporting 10% delinquency rate .

Just reiterating that it takes YEARS for this shit to play out. Part of the problem when the market goes to shit, people hunker down where they are, so inventory goes to shit. So if you have your eye on something and don't plan on moving or losing your job when the economy cracks, I'd buy and start building equity.

A lot of people that were WAY underwater during the 2008 fiasco, in hindsight were still right to buy at pretty much any point.