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Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

JR4X said:
So. I found a place I’m interested in and in my price range.

My spidy sense are telling me to abort mission because mortgage companies are throwing offers to me that I didn’t ask for. They’ll give 315K with 0 percent down and 6.75 percent interest. I never asked for a no money down loan. So if I close next month the market is going to be upside by august if history repeats itself.

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.
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Mortgage companies always do that, in my experience. It may or may not be foreshadowing
 
RusM said:
I think we're back to needing to be in a place 7 years before you can sell it and not pay to move. So if you can afford it, want to be back in a house and will be there awhile you should do it.
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That's my take as well.

However, the 10-20% drop will continue to be in the money supply
 
rockota said:
Mortgage companies always do that, in my experience. It may or may not be foreshadowing
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I’ve been sitting on pre approval for months. Haven’t found anything I’d consider. So with all my information they already have they just started writing up potential offers to see if anything I’ve been looking at was close and sending them to me.
 
JR4X said:
That’s the thing killing me in the back of my mind. $17,000 a year in rent when it could be $17,000 a year in interest :homer:
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But you can write it off. I also assume you would fix up/ improve whatever you bought so that would help with long term appreciation
 
JR4X said:
The place I’m looking at isn’t really going to be anyone’s first round draft pick. Nice piece of land with a ton of space to do what I want to do with it. Has a decent shop on it nicely remodeled on the inside double wide that’s had the frame removed out from underneath it and sitting on a poured cement foundation.
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I think this is important, how will this house appreciate/depreciate? Here generally the house will depreciate but land will hold/appreciate. When you say frame removed does that imply slab and there’s a crawl space under or how does that work?
 
Southwest is still raging. Pulled back maybe 5%, but in my hood home values have gone up 2.5x in the last 8 years. God just ain't making any new land, except in Hawaii, and we have min 1ac zoning with lots of houses on 5ac or even 10ac with riding arena's multi horse barns, etc., this IN the PHX city limits, so there's not a lot of places like that still around. We have some bare land, but I'm all for it being built out sooner rather than later so that regs can't change and all of a sudden some SoFri comes along and wants to put 6 houses to an acre.
 
2big bronco said:
But you can write it off. I also assume you would fix up/ improve whatever you bought so that would help with long term appreciation
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Definitely improve. It’s got a decent 26x40 shop with two 8 foot tall 9 foot wide doors. Wired very correctly with receptacles everywhere and 50 amp 220 done up nice with receptacles on both sides. Also has a place cleared on the other side of the place I could build a bigger shop on later. It’s been vacant for quite a while so it’s grown up with New Mexico weeds.
BigBurt said:
I think this is important, how will this house appreciate/depreciate? Here generally the house will depreciate but land will hold/appreciate. When you say frame removed does that imply slab and there’s a crawl space under or how does that work?
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Yes on slab with a crawl space. It needs work but it’s mostly superficial yard work. Fix fences and get the weeds under control. Put down some gravel and get a yearly weed control company on the job. It needs a ton of work with tractors and I enjoy doing that. Should only appreciate.

Only thing really bumming me out is it’s on propane, no nat gas. Has both city water and irrigation though.
 
If you want to live there, buy it. If you want it as an investment, then run the math on rental rates, and see if it makes sense.

Yes, primary housing can be an investment, but its primary duty is a place to live and keep your housing cost fixed (no rent increases).

These wacky markets have homeowners thinking of making money instead of a place to live.

Now with that said, there is no correction coming, and interest rates aren’t dropping.
 
The bottom end of the market especially with a bit of land will likely get hit the least- it’s people with $750k HOA cookie cutters on .25 ac are the ones who will get hit the hardest, because there is nothing special about it and there will be 8 of them for sale on the street with the sale going to the person who is most desperate and/or had the most equity to negotiate a sale without involving negotiating with a bank to settle for less than the mortgage amount owed.
 
JR4X said:
Definitely improve. It’s got a decent 26x40 shop with two 8 foot tall 9 foot wide doors. Wired very correctly with receptacles everywhere and 50 amp 220 done up nice with receptacles on both sides. Also has a place cleared on the other side of the place I could build a bigger shop on later. It’s been vacant for quite a while so it’s grown up with New Mexico weeds.

Yes on slab with a crawl space. It needs work but it’s mostly superficial yard work. Fix fences and get the weeds under control. Put down some gravel and get a yearly weed control company on the job. It needs a ton of work with tractors and I enjoy doing that. Should only appreciate.

Only thing really bumming me out is it’s on propane, no nat gas. Has both city water and irrigation though.
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I feel a correction is coming, but houses with shops don't come up often, and to me a shop can provide income that offsets the mortgage

If your rent isn't painful and a place doesn't have a shop or really grab you, keep renting and see what 2025 brings, but if your rent is out of line compared to the payment, and the shop is nice, that's a hard call to make.

You can get pretty good utility out of a property like that while being a little salty that you'd be paying 300mo less a couple years later



Actually summed up pretty well by wtfs post while I typed mine out...
 
I was thinking today how TLC the 1st channel to really embrace the “house flipper” shows permanently changed the real estate market, and probably bears some responsibility for why millennials can’t afford houses.
 
grumpy356 said:
I was thinking today how TLC the 1st channel to really embrace the “house flipper” shows permanently changed the real estate market, and probably bears some responsibility for why millennials can’t afford houses.
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Yeah. Those cock suckers got every dumb ass with a part time job believing they could afford a $500k house and still have the money to do fix n flips on them. Some of the work on some of the places I’ve looked at recently was most likely completed by kids in their early twenties with no prior experience. Just a TikTok vid where someone with skill and nice tools made it look easy and beautiful.
 
Provience said:
However, the 10-20% drop will continue to be in the money supply
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yup
once you got people brainwashed into thinking that outright theft by inflation is better than getting some of that money back by deflation there really ain't no reason to even pretend any more

just keep on pocketing all that counterfeit fiat
 
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The real problem many states are dealing with is fluctuations in home insurance. Mine just went up $900 a year !
Pretty sure this is how they kill the middle class
I have neighbors that pay almost $20,000 between fire and home owners insurance, yikes !
 
rockdog57 said:
Buy it! Stop sitting on the sidelines waiting for a correction that may or may not happen. Every month you wait, is another months rent flushed down the toilet.
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FOMO my man. You know how pissed I’m going to be if nicer houses start going cheaper in 6 months and I’m stuck with this one now?

You’re probably all correct. Anything under $300k still pretty much gets snapped right up because anyone can make that payment for a while. It’s the 350 up stuff that’s sitting on the market longer.
 
upside-down said:
The real problem many states are dealing with is fluctuations in home insurance. Mine just went up $900 a year !
Pretty sure this is how they kill the middle class
I have neighbors that pay almost $20,000 between fire and home owners insurance, yikes !
Click to expand...
Yeah between property taxes and insurance increases a lot of people found themselves unable to make their payments anymore.
 
JR4X said:
I’ve been sitting on pre approval for months. Haven’t found anything I’d consider. So with all my information they already have they just started writing up potential offers to see if anything I’ve been looking at was close and sending them to me.
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They're businesses too and their business is hurting. The refinance market is completely dead. Nobody is refinancing right now where as the mortgage industry was living off of refinances for years as the rates kept going down. Hell, it seemed like I was refinancing my mortgage every 10-12 months there for awhile. My guy would call me when it made sense. Okay, here's a no cost refi since saving you X% and $200 per month. No brainer. Let's do it. All that business is gone and with rates up and prices high as giraffe pussy the mortgage industry is hurting. There's just not a lot of business out there to go after.
 
upside-down said:
The real problem many states are dealing with is fluctuations in home insurance. Mine just went up $900 a year !
Pretty sure this is how they kill the middle class
I have neighbors that pay almost $20,000 between fire and home owners insurance, yikes !
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insurance is a scam
build with concrete
 
JR4X said:
Yeah between property taxes and insurance increases a lot of people found themselves unable to make their payments anymore.
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But people keep wanting.

Just today there was someone petitioning the city for a “senior center” and was completely unconcerned how the burden would be on the taxpayers of the city.

Dumb bitch.
 
ApeEater said:
Most of us not getting paid 1099 would be taking the standard deduction, which will be greater than our interest payments in a single year, so a house won’t change our income tax burdens anymore.
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Single standard deduction is 14,600 so he'd only be gaining 2,400 in deductions. Not enough to worry about
 
It's settled down here a bit, we're around 92% retard and not full retard

ZomboMeme 03062024114342.jpg
 
WTF? said:
The bottom end of the market especially with a bit of land will likely get hit the least- it’s people with $750k HOA cookie cutters on .25 ac are the ones who will get hit the hardest, because there is nothing special about it and there will be 8 of them for sale on the street with the sale going to the person who is most desperate and/or had the most equity to negotiate a sale without involving negotiating with a bank to settle for less than the mortgage amount owed.
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With logic like that you're gonna make a great boomer some day. :flipoff2:

Houses with big shops and big acreage are exactly the same kind of luxurious bullshit for rich assholes that those $750k 3000sf McMansions are, they're just targeted at different demographics. Shit like JR4X is looking to buy is going to drop a lot less proportionally than "fancy country estate" shit. Ditto for my modest house vs the McMansion.

Other than spending more time and money commuting and more time and money maintaining your property there's not really much that a 2000sf house with 3000sf of detached shop on a large but below what you need to run a farm amount of acreage has going for it that the same house and 1500sf shop on 1ac doesn't.
upside-down said:
The real problem many states are dealing with is fluctuations in home insurance. Mine just went up $900 a year !
Pretty sure this is how they kill the middle class
I have neighbors that pay almost $20,000 between fire and home owners insurance, yikes !
Click to expand...
Desert shithole full of shit people problems. :flipoff2:

JR4X said:
FOMO my man. You know how pissed I’m going to be if nicer houses start going cheaper in 6 months and I’m stuck with this one now?
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A "nicer" house doesn't actually improve the life of someone like you all that much. Spend the money on shop and tools.
 
I get the fomo but that’s what keeps you in a rental forever. Shoot a low offer, get in that place, and delete the Zillow app until you’ve ready to buy again
 
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