Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

[WTF?]

With logic like that you're gonna make a great boomer some day.

Houses with big shops and big acreage are exactly the same kind of luxurious bullshit for rich assholes that those $750k 3000sf McMansions are, they're just targeted at different demographics. Shit like JR4X is looking to buy is going to drop a lot less proportionally than "fancy country estate" shit. Ditto for my modest house vs the McMansion.

What is your argument? You summarized/ paraphrased exactly what I wrote.

 

[Tin Roof]

What is your argument? You summarized/ paraphrased exactly what I wrote.

He's just a boomer shaking his fist in the air yelling.

 

[Wildjon]

I'm starting to see houses that would have been sold before the for sale sign went up are sitting on the market longer than usual here in Florida. YMMV

 

[arse_sidewards]

What is your argument? You summarized/ paraphrased exactly what I wrote.

My point is that this is wrong:

The bottom end of the market especially with a bit of land will likely get hit the least- it

Useful land, unless it is productive land, is a liability that increases the cost of ownership just like HOA fees and taxes.

The modest utilitarian house on more than a few to half dozen acres (+/- a little depending on local norms) is going to lose value because as the easy money runs out people's dreams of using that land for anything are more obviously delusions that will never happen. Something that had ten acres and a value that was a reflection of the fact that some of those acres could easily be cleared and/or built (if not also subdivided) will decrease.

INB4 the usual pieces of shit show up to tell me that you don't have to mow the desert.

 

[[486]]

Yea, and that $185k Obama era McMansion is $525k in April '24.

yeah and he used the .gov inflation number

 

[WTF?]

My point is that this is wrong:

The land, unless it is productive land, is a liability that increases the cost of ownership just like HOA fees and taxes.

The modest utilitarian house on more than a few to half dozen acres (+/- a little depending on local norms) is going to lose value because as the easy money runs out people's dreams of using that land for anything are more obviously delusions that will never happen. Something that had ten acres and a value that was a reflection of the fact that some of those acres could easily be cleared and/or built (if not also subdivided) will decrease.

Where did anyone say anything about more than a few to half a dozen acres?

 

[arse_sidewards]

Where did anyone say anything about more than a few to half a dozen acres?

You did.

Why even say shit like "with a bit of land" if that bit of land isn't any more than whatever the local norm is?'

A house on .5ac is "with a bit of land" in some places.

 

[WTF?]

You did.

Why even say shit like "with a bit of land" if that bit of land isn't any more than whatever the local norm is?

What was meant was 1-3-5 acres and not a quarter/third of an acre like more common entry level/lower price properties in any given market.

Out of 57 homes for sale under $350k in Farmington nm, only 2 of them have more than 0.5 acres, so that’s ’more Than the local norm’ even ‘out in the desert’…

 

[Animalmother]

Any new house in a neighborhood around here is stacked in on top of each other on 1/3 acre lots. You may see a neighborhood built out about 20 years ago with 3/4 to 1 acre lots but those seem to be rare. From what I’ve seen the 500k neighborhood “starter” homes are still moving okay. It’s the stand alone houses on 5 acres and up that are starting to sit longer. I’ve seen one on my street that listed and the price came down 95k before I finally saw it was pending. Didn’t see anyone look at it. Couple years ago when I was buying there would have been cars parked on the side of the road waiting to look and multiple cash offers made.


I just looked, it came down about 50k. I thought it was 95k but that still seems like a lot.

 

[Tiha]

Neighbors across the street just moved out. Kind of bummed, no warning, just gone. They had been there 15 years. They were the ones that kind of kept the neighborhood in line. Called the city on just about everything.

their house is listed as $175k on the accessors website, have not seen a for sale sign yet. Waiting to see what it is listed for.

The house next to it, accessed near that at $155 sold for $204k 3 years ago. Small houses (1,100 sq/ft) 2 bedroom, 1 ba, small lots (1/4-1/3 acre). Ok neighborhood.

 

[RSWORDS]

We are selling our house. Bought in 2016 for $250,000 and just listed it for $450,000. Realtor put a "coming soon" out last wednesday and will not be live on the MLS until this Wednesday. Realtor alredy has 3 solid days of showings lined up and people trying to send cash offers sight unseen.

I hope it doesnt burst for another month

Side note, I put a contract on a $150,000 1,100 sq ft house that I;m going to live in while I build another. Got 6.25% with 5% down.

As of this morning we have a ratified contract for full ask with and As-is clause

 

[mobil1syn]

You financially savvy folks, would you wait a year? I can stay in the rental I’m in no problem.

if it checks the boxes and you arent going to hate it, buy it.

you want somewhere to sleep and somewhere to work on things, which the working on things having more importance.

is propane a deal breaker or inconvience?

 

[JR4X]

if it checks the boxes and you arent going to hate it, buy it.

you want somewhere to sleep and somewhere to work on things, which the working on things having more importance.

Yep and yep.

is propane a deal breaker or inconvience?

Mostly inconvenience. Propane is expensive, it’s like 3X more expensive to heat the same house on propane as it is nat gas. Plus having to remember to pay attention to it. Pay rent on the tank if you don’t own it and this particular one isn’t property owned. I refuse to use electric cook stoves, hate them. So cooking on the gas range means using a lot of propane. The hot water heater the furnace and the stove use up the propane fast in the winter.

 

[mobil1syn]

Yep and yep.

Mostly inconvenience. Propane is expensive, it’s like 3X more expensive to heat the same house on propane as it is nat gas. Plus having to remember to pay attention to it. Pay rent on the tank if you don’t own it and this particular one isn’t property owned. I refuse to use electric cook stoves, hate them. So cooking on the gas range means using a lot of propane. The hot water heater the furnace and the stove use up the propane fast in the winter.

what are the chances that natural gas would be ran to the area?

 

[rockota]

Yep and yep.

Mostly inconvenience. Propane is expensive, it’s like 3X more expensive to heat the same house on propane as it is nat gas. Plus having to remember to pay attention to it. Pay rent on the tank if you don’t own it and this particular one isn’t property owned. I refuse to use electric cook stoves, hate them. So cooking on the gas range means using a lot of propane. The hot water heater the furnace and the stove use up the propane fast in the winter.

Our propane company stops out a couple times a year to check the level - proactively. May want to see if that happens at this location?

 

[ApeEater]

Our propane company stops out a couple times a year to check the level - proactively. May want to see if that happens at this location?

It's the same here. They come to check about once a month on their normal rounds and ask if we want to top off or wait for the lower summer prices.

 

[Roc Doc]

The real problem many states are dealing with is fluctuations in home insurance. Mine just went up $900 a year !
Pretty sure this is how they kill the middle class
I have neighbors that pay almost $20,000 between fire and home owners insurance, yikes !

My buddy that lives in El Dorado Hills, owns his place outright, has a year round spring fed creek, and a big-ass sprinkler system for the house and perimeter, powered by Tesla batteries and solar cells. Good thing, because his home owners insurance was cancelled, and any company that would write a policy wanted that $25k or more. It's 5 acres with a horse barn/tack room, and lots of trees, but he's done all the right things for fire mitigation, but his insurance company DGAF, "Thanks for all the years of payments, now kindly fuck off".

 

[JR4X]

what are the chances that natural gas would be ran to the area?

I’m looking into how close the nearest leg is.

Our propane company stops out a couple times a year to check the level - proactively. May want to see if that happens at this location?

They definitely do. They’ll come weekly or monthly. You can also hedge for the winter by pre paying up front in the summer which helps a little.

 

[2big bronco]

I’m looking into how close the nearest leg is.

They definitely do. They’ll come weekly or monthly. You can also hedge for the winter by pre paying up front in the summer which helps a little.

Why not just buy your own 1000+ gallon tank and shop your own prices for a large fill when it gets down sub 100 gallons. That seems to make a huge difference out here

 

[Roc Doc]

It's almost like you have options for housing.

 

[JR4X]

It's almost like you have options for housing.

I have options. The market is not providing choices I consider acceptable options.

 

[JR4X]

Why not just buy your own 1000+ gallon tank and shop your own prices for a large fill when it gets down sub 100 gallons. That seems to make a huge difference out here

If we make a deal on this thing I will most likely do that.

 

[ApeEater]

Why not just buy your own 1000+ gallon tank and shop your own prices for a large fill when it gets down sub 100 gallons. That seems to make a huge difference out here

The rental on my 1000-gallon tank is $100/year, and he sells propane at the same price as everyone else. In my case, it didn't make sense to mess with it. In another area, with less scrupulous dealers, YMMV.

 

[2big bronco]

The rental on my 1000-gallon tank is $100/year, and he sells propane at the same price as everyone else. In my case, it didn't make sense to mess with it. In another area, with less scrupulous dealers, YMMV.

Out here you are locked Into buying from the company who owns the tank and prices greatly vary

 

[Roc Doc]

I have options. The market is not providing choices I consider acceptable options.

I get that. My statement was rhetorical.

You probably know all this, but the supply is limited right now because so many people purchased or re-fied at sub 3% rates, that they don't want to move and have to take out a 7 or 8% loan on a house that is priced like the rates are still cheap. Now if you're a cash buyer that's great, but the supply is still limited.

When the 2006-8 Wall Street fuckery was going on, housing prices in Vegas took a serious tumble, to the point people were under water, and banks and especially credit unions were not open to re-fi's. During Covid, the Vegas economy arguably got hit harder than any other city in the US, but the housing market got hot due to remote workers leaving high COL areas like SF-Bay Area, NYC, DC, etc., for the lower housing prices of Vegas and Phoenix.

 

[Alpine4x4]

Still nuttier than a squirrel here. Couple recent pendings and open listings in our canyon we're building in. $460k for a double wide boggles my mind Unfortunately I think the appraisers value is gonna stick if things keep up like this.

9351 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA 98815 | MLS #2234369 | Zillow

This 1942 square feet Mobile / Manufactured home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. It is located at 9351 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA.

www.zillow.com

9198 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA 98815 | Zillow

9198 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere WA, is a Single Family home that contains 2450 sq ft and was built in 2000.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $755,000 in June 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $758,000, which has increased by $1,152 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

9505 Plateau Rd, Cashmere, WA 98815 | Zillow

9505 Plateau Rd, Cashmere WA, is a Single Family home that contains 2503 sq ft and was built in 1996.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $835,500, which has increased by $6,229 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

6980 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA 98815 | MLS #2217810 | Zillow

This 4392 square feet Single Family home has 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. It is located at 6980 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA.

www.zillow.com

 

[RusM]

Still nuttier than a squirrel here. Couple recent pendings and open listings in our canyon we're building in. $460k for a double wide boggles my mind Unfortunately I think the appraisers value is gonna stick if things keep up like this.

9351 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA 98815 | MLS #2234369 | Zillow

This 1942 square feet Mobile / Manufactured home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. It is located at 9351 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA.

www.zillow.com

9198 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA 98815 | Zillow

9198 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere WA, is a Single Family home that contains 2450 sq ft and was built in 2000.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $755,000 in June 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $758,000, which has increased by $1,152 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

9505 Plateau Rd, Cashmere, WA 98815 | Zillow

9505 Plateau Rd, Cashmere WA, is a Single Family home that contains 2503 sq ft and was built in 1996.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $835,500, which has increased by $6,229 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

6980 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA 98815 | MLS #2217810 | Zillow

This 4392 square feet Single Family home has 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. It is located at 6980 Olalla Canyon Road, Cashmere, WA.

www.zillow.com

At least the mobi won't be burning up in a fire like the other two.

 

[Alpine4x4]

At least the mobi won't be burning up in a fire like the other two.

They will all probably burn

We're required to put in sprinklers in the house with a 300gal tank and have a 4000 gallon on site water tank full for fire suppression. We also have a small water tanker trailer with engine driven pump. Definitely a high risk area.

 

[[486]]

Out here you are locked Into buying from the company who owns the tank and prices greatly vary

The rental on my 1000-gallon tank is $100/year, and he sells propane at the same price as everyone else. In my case, it didn't make sense to mess with it. In another area, with less scrupulous dealers, YMMV.

which is why you own your tank
so you can tell them to fuck right off when they hit you with a poor price
they do try and fuck you back for not submitting to their rape, but you're the one in the right

 

[Tin Roof]

which is why you own your tank
so you can tell them to fuck right off when they hit you with a poor price
they do try and fuck you back for not submitting to their rape, but you're the one in the right

Depends on your vendor. At our previous house we rented a tank from FS at roughly $75 or $80/yr and their LP costs were consistently lower than the other vendors in the area. They also would take care of any maintenance on the tank as part of the rental at no extra cost. It didn't make any sense for us to buy a tank and waste time shopping around every time we needed filled. If they suddenly started charging more than everyone else, then I would have told them to pound sand and come get their tank. I also never had to call them to get a fill. They knew when I'd be around 30% and if they were in the area (very remote out of the way place) they would top it off.