Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

[WTF?]

I’m sorry, but something fishy here. The peak was not in 2009. That was the peak of the recession. The peak of the market was 2007 -2008. Believe me, I know. I bought over $400 K of property. By 2009 I was upside down. I wasn’t terribly upside down because I put giant down payments. Of course, that ment I just lost that money if I sold. By 2013 most property was back to 2008 prices. By 2015, they were above. Hmmm, did I mention the 7 year thing?

Don’t believe me, a couple clicks on your favorite search engine will confirm what I say.

Different markets had timing variances depending on how prolific the stated income issuing mortgage lenders were, foreclosure laws, how much appreciation boom they saw from the loose mortgage lending, and how strong the local economy was outside of real estate.

Some markets that had the highest run ups in price leading up to 07-08 didn’t bottom out in value until several years later because practically everyone was underwater in their mortgages so nothing really sold, it entered foreclosure pipeline instead. Or they had to go through debt forgiveness/ mortgage restructuring which was a long process.

 

[arse_sidewards]

You can get way upside down buying at the wrong time, in 20 or 21 I met a couple that were selling their house, they had bought at the previous peak, 2009, and had been upside down for 12 years, zero equity, unable to move, unable to refinance, 12 years of payments, repairs and maintenance, and nothing to show for it, just the ability to leave without bankruptcy

And these people are a fuckton more numerous than the "just buy real estate you can't go wrong look how much equity I have" pieces of shit would have you believe because unlike the pieces of shit they don't brag about it at every turn.

 

[Projectjunkie]

I’m sorry, but something fishy here. The peak was not in 2009. That was the peak of the recession. The peak of the market was 2007 -2008. Believe me, I know. I bought over $400 K of property. By 2009 I was upside down. I wasn’t terribly upside down because I put giant down payments. Of course, that ment I just lost that money if I sold. By 2013 most property was back to 2008 prices. By 2015, they were above. Hmmm, did I mention the 7 year thing?

Don’t believe me, a couple clicks on your favorite search engine will confirm what I say.

My bad, been a busy week, 2007-2008 was the peak. My conversation with them was brief, they said they had finally made it back to what they had paid at the peak, that was likely a terrible 10 years for them to feel stuck the entire time.

Some people have a steady income and no desire to move for 20 years, so they don't really care, just happy to have a roof over their head, long term, but if somebody was having a hard time making their payment, went thru a divorce, sought to move out of state or across town for whatever reason, they're shackled to a liability, that sucks.

 

[Projectjunkie]

How many people are sitting on cash waiting for the “crash” ?

I know 1 person that cashed out at peak prices and has been living in a camper and waiting. Doesnt look like prices have even came down all that much. I guess its the roll of the dice and no one has a crystal ball. Maybe it will work out for them. But as of right now they couldnt even buy what they had and be in a better position.

To some extent me, bought a fixer upper 8mo ago, sold my current house last month, going to park the proceeds in a CD instead of paying off new mortgage for 12mo to see what happens. I'll lose 1.5% on the spread

 

[FelixstoweF.2]

The place you want to look at for the for a housing bubble is to see how many foreclosures are happening. Also you want to check the mortgages themselves out and how they being bundled to offset foreclosures. That's going to tell you if the bubble is expanding or contracting. And of course the CDO has returned too. I would look at those markets and see how stable they are right now. I would also check to see which markets are growing and how those markets are growing. A professor out Texas A&M did some good research on that topic.

 

[WTF?]

The place you want to look at for the for a housing bubble is to see how many foreclosures are happening. Also you want to check the mortgages themselves out and how they being bundled to offset foreclosures. That's going to tell you if the bubble is expanding or contracting. And of course the CDO has returned too. I would look at those markets and see how stable they are right now. I would also check to see which markets are growing and how those markets are growing. A professor out Texas A&M did some good research on that topic.

That’s 100% ChatGPT copy pasta.

 

[JR4X]

Are you above living in a 5th wheel parked next to a shop? For a year while your house is getting built? Indefinitely while living debt free?

I forgot to come back and answer this one. Not above it. I don’t have the % capital to plunk down on bare property. There’s plots I could pay cash for but then I don’t have the cash for the Utility installs.

 

[Provience]

The place you want to look at for the for a housing bubble is to see how many foreclosures are happening. Also you want to check the mortgages themselves out and how they being bundled to offset foreclosures. That's going to tell you if the bubble is expanding or contracting. And of course the CDO has returned too. I would look at those markets and see how stable they are right now. I would also check to see which markets are growing and how those markets are growing. A professor out Texas A&M did some good research on that topic.

only if you are looking for an exact repeat of the most recent one

 

[Jag]

That’s 100% ChatGPT copy pasta.

Im to lazy to search but I think its partially from “The Big Short”

 

[[486]]

I forgot to come back and answer this one. Not above it. I don’t have the % capital to plunk down on bare property. There’s plots I could pay cash for but then I don’t have the cash for the Utility installs.

so you're looking for a burn-down shack because then you'll get utilities and better loan terms?

Don't make the same mistake I did...
Do Not Fix The Shack

You can save it,
but you shouldn't save it.

 

[JR4X]

so you're looking for a burn-down shack because then you'll get utilities and better loan terms?

Don't make the same mistake I did...
Do Not Fix The Shack

You can save it,
but you shouldn't save it.

I think that’s what I was trying to get at earlier somewhere. This place wasn’t established enough for cool 1910 shacks to be available. Farmington and the surrounding areas didn’t really boom until the 90’s.

Lots of plots with utilities and junk 30 year old mobile homes on them though. I’m sifting through them looking for city water, 200 amp service and maybe a useable septic system.

 

[Mikel]

I think we are seeing a repeat of the last crisis. The market nationwide peaked in 2006, then slowly declined until 2008, when #$% hit the fan. And even then it took three more years before bottom was reached. As slow as things are shifting now, I think it's happening faster than the last time.

What we are missing here is a high unemployment event, which will release many houses into the market.

 

[Norm]

I think we are seeing a repeat of the last crisis. The market nationwide peaked in 2006, then slowly declined until 2008, when #$% hit the fan. And even then it took three more years before bottom was reached. As slow as things are shifting now, I think it's happening faster than the last time.

What we are missing here is a high unemployment event, which will release many houses into the market.

2008-2010 was different, lots of stinky mortgages in 05-07 to people who couldn’t afford them and put nothing down and had nothing skin in the game. Now we a most everyone with a 3% mortgage and equity. Without a prolonged unemployment problem we won’t see a 2008 event. We might see some price pullback, but unless things change it’s not going to be a 30% event.

We haven’t been building enough houses since 08, and it caught up with us.

 

[Mikel]

2008-2010 was different, lots of stinky mortgages in 05-07 to people who couldn’t afford them and put nothing down and had nothing skin in the game. Now we a most everyone with a 3% mortgage and equity. Without a prolonged unemployment problem we won’t see a 2008 event. We might see some price pullback, but unless things change it’s not going to be a 30% event.

We haven’t been building enough houses since 08, and it caught up with us.

There is equity now, since prices haven't declined much. How many people have overextended themselves in the last few years, who will be underwater at the slightest decline?

Were there bidding wars prior to 2008?

 

[clodhopper]

What we are missing here is a high unemployment event, which will release many houses into the market.

We may be in that, or close to it. Harder to trend out when the "new job" numbers are hugely swayed by excessive govt hiring.

 

[_03_]

2008-2010 was different, lots of stinky mortgages in 05-07 to people who couldn’t afford them and put nothing down and had nothing skin in the game. Now we a most everyone with a 3% mortgage and equity. Without a prolonged unemployment problem we won’t see a 2008 event. We might see some price pullback, but unless things change it’s not going to be a 30% event.

We haven’t been building enough houses since 08, and it caught up with us.

This plus there were people with multiple mortgages, and/or people way in over their head on one mortgage. Tic toc, tic toc. The pendulum will swing. Never as far on either direction. Unless, this time is different....

 

[YotaAtieToo]

You can get way upside down buying at the wrong time, in 20 or 21 I met a couple that were selling their house, they had bought at the previous peak, 2009, and had been upside down for 12 years, zero equity, unable to move, unable to refinance, 12 years of payments, repairs and maintenance, and nothing to show for it, just the ability to leave without bankruptcy

That's a pretty retarded way to look at that situation.

For one, they could have moved and rented it out more than likely. Recessions usually have high demand for rentals.

"upside down" only really matters if you are trying to sell. As long as you can make the payments, it's still yours and will eventually recover.

Nothing to show besides living in a house for 12 years? Did they literally break dead even on the sale? So not just selling for the same price they bought it for, but what they had payed it down to? What was the reason to sell?


Some people just panic when their house value drops, and I get it, but it will come back, and eventually gain equity. My inlaws bought at a peak in 1990, moved shorty after and sold it for over 3 times what they payed 15 or so years later. They knew lots of people who just panicked and sold when priced started dropping. Like the people who pull their investments out when they start dropping "so they don't loose it all"

 

[YotaAtieToo]

I forgot to come back and answer this one. Not above it. I don’t have the % capital to plunk down on bare property. There’s plots I could pay cash for but then I don’t have the cash for the Utility installs.

I deal with this a lot at work, and all I can say is be careful and do your homework, bare land development can get expensive really quickly and I see so many people get way over their head before they even have a pad for a house to be built. Most people don't even have a budget for a driveway, but then shit their pants when they get a $20-100k quote to blaze a no e road with drainage back into thier 10-40 acre plot

Wells are another one, some areas here a neighbor lucks out with a 80' well for ~$8k but then you have to go 750' and are 10x's that.

Not that you cant do shit yourself, but I just hate seeing people's dreams fall apart.

I think that’s what I was trying to get at earlier somewhere. This place wasn’t established enough for cool 1910 shacks to be available. Farmington and the surrounding areas didn’t really boom until the 90’s.

Lots of plots with utilities and junk 30 year old mobile homes on them though. I’m sifting through them looking for city water, 200 amp service and maybe a useable septic system.

This is the way to go, especially if you can do a few things to the trailer to make it liveable and/or loanable to get money to build with.

 

[Clemson13]

I said fuck it and bought. Waiting got me nowhere...

I said fuck it, and got a rental for the next 3 years. Not going to sell the current place though. Keep it as a rental and hedge against inflation. Shit costs 1.1k/mo in mortgage, cheap compared to my new rent @ 3200.

 

[Animalmother]

You are a rat and you occupy a space that all the other rats realize is going to be one of the last to get wet as the ship sinks.

Dont be hating. Good for him if he got a bazillion in equity.

 

[arse_sidewards]

I think that’s what I was trying to get at earlier somewhere. This place wasn’t established enough for cool 1910 shacks to be available. Farmington and the surrounding areas didn’t really boom until the 90’s.

Lots of plots with utilities and junk 30 year old mobile homes on them though. I’m sifting through them looking for city water, 200 amp service and maybe a useable septic system.

The shack is metaphorical. Shitty single wide works too.

 

[arse_sidewards]

2008-2010 was different, lots of stinky mortgages in 05-07 to people who couldn’t afford them and put nothing down and had nothing skin in the game. Now we a most everyone with a 3% mortgage and equity. Without a prolonged unemployment problem we won’t see a 2008 event. We might see some price pullback, but unless things change it’s not going to be a 30% event.

We haven’t been building enough houses since 08, and it caught up with us.

Equity doesn't mean shit if nobody is buying at the valuation that equity is predicated on.

 

[arse_sidewards]

This plus there were people with multiple mortgages, and/or people way in over their head on one mortgage. Tic toc, tic toc. The pendulum will swing. Never as far on either direction. Unless, this time is different....

Lots of assholes went out and bought 2nd and 3rd houses this time around in order to AirBNB or VRBO them.

These are the assholes with no skin in the game and not a lot to lose by cutting and running. Roughly equivalent to the people with fresh "zero down" mortgages in 2008ish.

 

[arse_sidewards]

Dont be hating. Good for him if he got a bazillion in equity.

He's a metaphorical rat. You're a literal one.

 

[FelixstoweF.2]

That’s 100% ChatGPT copy pasta.

I love it---

First off foreclosures are up again.

Map shows states where house foreclosures are rising

Major metropolitan areas, especially those with high populations, are seeing an uptick in foreclosure filings.

www.newsweek.com

Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states

Home foreclosures are on the upswing nationwide, according to a new report, a sign that homeowners are still struggling from the ongoing inflation crisis.

finance.yahoo.com

Housing Market 2024: 5 States With the Highest Foreclosure Rates

Foreclosure rates are on the rise. As of February, there were nearly 33,000 properties in foreclosure, an 8% increase from the year prior, according to a new report from ATTOM. Find Out: 7 Florida...

finance.yahoo.com

and from the year before.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/foreclosures-continue-to-surge-are-they-a-threat-to-the-housing-market/

The trend is that mortgages are being less stable.

This means Mortgaged Backed Securities which still are used are becoming less stable.

So, that means they have to get covered. And I agree with Arse_Sidewards that the increase in AirBnB and other short term rental properties are a big cause but the people that bought them that usually willing to cut and run are the big private equity firms that try to bundle there turds up and get rid of them to other groups.

 

[JR4X]

The shack is metaphorical. Shitty single wide works too.

I’m not arguing, I’m agreeing. Except with a shitty single wide it’s easier to demo and remove because I can have it towed away.

 

[JR4X]

Another factor people are just starting to grapple with. Your big increase in property taxes raising your monthly house payment. For some people it’s thousands more per year with their new tax burden. I wonder how well the Airbnb/vrbo folks are doing on their side hustle with their tax increases.

 

[Animalmother]

He's a metaphorical rat. You're a literal one.

You’re a miseral old fuck. Add yourself to the new crop of dumbfucks that doesnt know the definition of the word literal.

 

[Mikel]

Another factor people are just starting to grapple with. Your big increase in property taxes raising your monthly house payment. For some people it’s thousands more per year with their new tax burden. I wonder how well the Airbnb/vrbo folks are doing on their side hustle with their tax increases.

And insurance. And pretty much everything.

 

[BillyBronco]

And insurance. And pretty much everything.

This is true. I have lived in this house 11 years. Originally had a 30 year mortgage with a 3.375% rate never paid a dime extra. Refied in late 2020 for a 2.5% rate to a 20 year mortgage. Basically I shaved 3 years off my mortgage (23 years remaining to 20 years left) for the same principal and interest payment.

Now what has changed in the 11 years I have been here. Insurance was 1100 per year when I moved here and now costs $3500 per year. Taxes were $8k per year when I bought and now over $15,000 and climbing. Now my house went from $356k to about $900k with most of that run up since COVID. Values don’t matter to me as I am not selling for another 7-10years. I am just getting jacked with insurance and taxes.