What's new
By:
Filters

Lumber Price Outlook 2021

We are waiting on a couple projects. I’m forecasting 2nd Q 2022
 
bgaidan said:
I'm a PM for a company that does civiil/environmental work and we regularly have jobs that involve clearing. The bigger landfills we usually sub out and they take the timber (though I could probably pilfer a few logs here and there), but our stream projects are usually selective clearing that we slowly take down as we move around...and they're usually big hardwoods that have grown next to water. We did one last year in VA that was loaded with black walnut, cherry and sycamore and it all got cut up and given away as firewood.
Click to expand...

There is a market for those, look into “urban woods”
 
45acp said:
If there's not a big drop by april-may-june, you can go ahead and consider it the new norm.
Click to expand...

Of what year 2025?:flipoff2: It'll go down again but I think it's gonna be a long ass time before we see it, I ain't happy about it because I have a few wood projects to do once the big thaw hits us in a month or so.
 
50971733611_08c939a42e_b.jpg


Keep buying! We will keep cutting them down and turning them into boards! 😁

These will all be turned into 16' 2x4 and 2x6 and most likely shipped to Menards.

Reduction in milling capacity throughout North America as well as a lack of available homes; driving an increase in existing home prices has driven the housing market to pre-2008 levels.
 
Last edited:
Basically anything that a bank won't lend or that the yuppies don't want is still cheap. "You can't just slap a spec house on this with no dirt work" land is still cheap. 90s shitboxes that aren't trucks are still cheap.

But 90% of the people on this board are old, lazy and wealthy enough that they're competing for the same stupid shit the yuppies and the "but the payment is affordable" morons want. The people who want to buy SxSs or just cut a check and have a bunch of new construction material dropped off, or some other turnkey solution to whatever the of the minute is, are competing with other idiots and will get screwed on price.

There's a handful of people on this board who you don't see bitching about prices. They're the people who plan their shit out well in advance and can jump on deals for things they'll need in a year and have enough projects going at once that they can always find something to make progress on without paying out the ass.
 
My only question at this point, how do I speculate my way into easy cheating money over this?
 
[486 said:
;n320725]
ETA: maybe that's the "normal" price now? I've been seeing $45 or thereabouts on OSB which is funny because 3/4 ply is similar money or less
Eh, whatever.
Click to expand...

What I'm worried about is all the morons who have the memory of a goldfish eventually saying "fuck it, I'll buy" and the market establishes a new normal for the next decade like what we saw with the used car market after C4C.

bgaidan said:
I've always wanted a bandsaw mill and the pole barn at my new place is a perfect location to set one up. I wonder if companies like Woodmizer are seeing crazy sales too.
Click to expand...

I'm going to be in the market for a sawmill in the next 2-5yr. I'm hoping the inflated prices prompt a bunch of the tree service places around here buy them to run on the side and then sell when the price dips. Tree services (and every other business where your primary value add is "I have insurance") are generally operated by morons so I can see them investing in equipment that's unprofitable to run after even a modest price dip.
 
Last edited:
rockota said:
supply/demand, low interest rates, government debt spending.

Have prices gone up? Or has the dollar gone down?
Click to expand...

I watch financial news very infrequently. Last night I watched one hour of CNBC and I heard 'deflation' or a form of it about 4 times.

I made that post here last year, and over on PBB.

What the bigwigs are worried about right now is Deflation. That's some scary shit. We have deflation. CNBC was talking different interest rates and 'printing money', but the fact is, They are going to keep printing money until the deflation that just happened is soft-landed.

Nobody knows how long this is lasting. It's not that Yellen thinks they can spend their way out of this, it's that they think they have no other choice. They probably don't.

Interest rates will remain negative overseas and American wood products will remain at a premium.
 
[486 said:
;n320611]interesting, roughly double
not nearly as bad as I thought it was
was expecting worse what with how plywood jumped up, though that's probably just snap demand from people panic buying it, like when there were the riots and you couldn't find any sort of sheeting for any price from everyone covering over their windows
Click to expand...

Supply/demand definitely affects retail prices a lot more. Outside of a few local instances, I don't believe the riots made any significant impact on OSB prices though. The lumber market is just too huge.

One thing to keep in mind is that a lot of lumber is bought through contract pricing, if lumber costs go up distributors need to sell at a contract price still. They then raise the prices for spot purchases even higher to offset the losses from selling on a less favorable contract.
 
arse_sidewards said:
But 90% of the people on this board are old, lazy and wealthy enough that they're competing for the same stupid shit the yuppies and the "but the payment is affordable" morons want. The people who want to buy SxSs or just cut a check and have a bunch of new construction material dropped off, or some other turnkey solution to whatever the of the minute is, are competing with other idiots and will get screwed on price.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Where the hell do you get that infomation from :rolleyes:
 
So, this whole lumber mill thing. I'm on 20 acres of my own land. I've got a few MASSIVE pines that are within striking distance of the house that need to come down. Also have many other trees that come down throughout the year. Is a mill really something worth pursuing? Just like a residential one? There really a market for that? I've thought about doing the firewood processing deal for a bit. In the same vein, I wonder if a small mill would be something to consider.
 
woods said:
So, this whole lumber mill thing. I'm on 20 acres of my own land. I've got a few MASSIVE pines that are within striking distance of the house that need to come down. Also have many other trees that come down throughout the year. Is a mill really something worth pursuing? Just like a residential one? There really a market for that? I've thought about doing the firewood processing deal for a bit. In the same vein, I wonder if a small mill would be something to consider.
Click to expand...

They don't really use value (because all the individual parts are so simple) so you can resell them at some large % of what you paid less whatever the cost of the individual bits that are broken at the time are.

If you have enough future construction to justify a lot of the cost I would do it. It will pay for most of itself by making just the beams to build one barn. Sell half a dozen hardwood slabs to stupid woodworkers in Burlington and there's the rest of it. Then you've got a paid for sawmill. A 30" sawmill costs ~$5k.
 
Last edited:
evernoob said:
I watch financial news very infrequently. Last night I watched one hour of CNBC and I heard 'deflation' or a form of it about 4 times.

I made that post here last year, and over on PBB.

What the bigwigs are worried about right now is Deflation. That's some scary shit. We have deflation. CNBC was talking different interest rates and 'printing money', but the fact is, They are going to keep printing money until the deflation that just happened is soft-landed.

Nobody knows how long this is lasting. It's not that Yellen thinks they can spend their way out of this, it's that they think they have no other choice. They probably don't.

Interest rates will remain negative overseas and American wood products will remain at a premium.
Click to expand...

lumber, steel, fuel, etc - prices all up... and CNBC was talking deflation?:confused:
 
bgaidan said:
I'm a PM for a company that does civiil/environmental work and we regularly have jobs that involve clearing. The bigger landfills we usually sub out and they take the timber (though I could probably pilfer a few logs here and there), but our stream projects are usually selective clearing that we slowly take down as we move around...and they're usually big hardwoods that have grown next to water. We did one last year in VA that was loaded with black walnut, cherry and sycamore and it all got cut up and given away as firewood.
Click to expand...

every small time sawyer would be pained to read this... :eek:
 
woods said:
So, this whole lumber mill thing. I'm on 20 acres of my own land. I've got a few MASSIVE pines that are within striking distance of the house that need to come down. Also have many other trees that come down throughout the year. Is a mill really something worth pursuing? Just like a residential one? There really a market for that? I've thought about doing the firewood processing deal for a bit. In the same vein, I wonder if a small mill would be something to consider.
Click to expand...

A small mill like a Woodland Mills 126 could produce some nice wood and offer a decent amount of return. And a tax write-off as well.

And yes - if you have the raw materials, you can make some money. Hard part - or hardest part - is drying.
 
rockota said:
A small mill like a Woodland Mills 126 could produce some nice wood and offer a decent amount of return. And a tax write-off as well.

And yes - if you have the raw materials, you can make some money. Hard part - or hardest part - is drying.
Click to expand...

That's actually the exact one I was looking at. I mean, ~$3500...that's not too bad. The firewood processors I was looking at are like $15,000. :eek:
 
woods said:
So, this whole lumber mill thing. I'm on 20 acres of my own land. I've got a few MASSIVE pines that are within striking distance of the house that need to come down. Also have many other trees that come down throughout the year. Is a mill really something worth pursuing? Just like a residential one? There really a market for that? I've thought about doing the firewood processing deal for a bit. In the same vein, I wonder if a small mill would be something to consider.
Click to expand...

Look around and see if you have a local guy with a portable mill. If its just a few trees, 1 and done deal, hire that shit out. They come to you, cut what you want and leave you with green lumber to dry. Air drying is roughly a year per inch. Lots of opinions on best practices on that, look for local people that do it for what may work better in your area. Some old metal roofing makes a decent cover to keep your lumber covered while drying.
 
evernoob said:
I watch financial news very infrequently. Last night I watched one hour of CNBC and I heard 'deflation' or a form of it about 4 times.

I made that post here last year, and over on PBB.

What the bigwigs are worried about right now is Deflation. That's some scary shit. We have deflation. CNBC was talking different interest rates and 'printing money', but the fact is, They are going to keep printing money until the deflation that just happened is soft-landed.

Nobody knows how long this is lasting. It's not that Yellen thinks they can spend their way out of this, it's that they think they have no other choice. They probably don't.

Interest rates will remain negative overseas and American wood products will remain at a premium.
Click to expand...

Explain why they think deflation is bad. Bear in mind deflation is the consumers purchasing power going up.

​​​​​
 
I bought and stacked back lumber for my cabin for 5 years. I bought the 7/16 OSB at less than 5 bucks a sheet. I bought two bundles and stacked it in the barn. bought a bundle of 2x10s that I had under a tarp for years. and a bundle of 2x6s on top of the osb. then one day I started cutting and figuring. I had every board cut to frame the cabin and marked. then one day we loaded up the trailer and headed north. spent the next day with 2 rigs running loads up and down the mountain. I want to build another cabin, but I will hold off for some deals.
I still cant believe how high lumber is right now.
 
woods said:
That's actually the exact one I was looking at. I mean, ~$3500...that's not too bad. The firewood processors I was looking at are like $15,000. :eek:
Click to expand...

it's manual... but it's not bad. There's a whole community of people using them.

Best in the world? Nope... not nearly.

Good service? Absolutely.

Quality Saw? Absolutely.

Worth buying the trailer? Absolutely not. (I have it and realize now that I'll likely never use it.)
 
Thefishguy77 said:
Look around and see if you have a local guy with a portable mill. If its just a few trees, 1 and done deal, hire that shit out. They come to you, cut what you want and leave you with green lumber to dry. Air drying is roughly a year per inch. Lots of opinions on best practices on that, look for local people that do it for what may work better in your area. Some old metal roofing makes a decent cover to keep your lumber covered while drying.
Click to expand...

I've got six 100'+ trees that are coming down. Where the shop is going, about another three dozen smaller ones. We also have a lot of deadfall, but I'm guessing those don't mill well.

I mean, ~$3800 for a mill? That doesn't seem that bad? I was looking at firewood processors for $15,000.

Just be neat to utilize my land a bit more.

edit: should also mention I have a 40hp tractor with a third function on the front that could use a grapple
 
arse_sidewards said:
What I'm worried about is all the morons who have the memory of a goldfish eventually saying "fuck it, I'll buy" and the market establishes a new normal for the next decade like what we saw with the used car market after C4C.
Click to expand...
heh, I just did that with some 3/4 ply at 30 bucks a sheet
figured, fuck it 10 sheets is enough to form up enough wall for the 4 yard minimum to get a truck out. Bust it down and pour another section, rinse and repeat.
quarters_ninja said:
Supply/demand definitely affects retail prices a lot more. Outside of a few local instances, I don't believe the riots made any significant impact on OSB prices though. The lumber market is just too huge.
Click to expand...
anything plywood-ish 7/16 and over was just unobtainable for about a month
kinda helps to understand that I was working in minneapolis at the time
 
woods said:
I've got six 100'+ trees that are coming down. Where the shop is going, about another three dozen smaller ones. We also have a lot of deadfall, but I'm guessing those don't mill well.

I mean, ~$3800 for a mill? That doesn't seem that bad? I was looking at firewood processors for $15,000.

Just be neat to utilize my land a bit more.
Click to expand...

Ring trees, let them dry standing...

But I'd be willing to bet you'd cover at least 2/3 of your lumber needs for the shop with those trees, depending on how skilled you become at milling...

I bought the mill because I wanted a fence along the drive... and the price for lumber was more than the mill. So now, I'll end up with a white-oak fence instead of pine...
 
Slander said:
Explain why they think deflation is bad. Bear in mind deflation is the consumers purchasing power going up.

​​​​​
Click to expand...
iirc it's something to do with market stagnation, if money's in investment in itself people won't buy stocks?

feeling more and more like bullshit fed to people to make them fuck themselves
 
woods said:
I've got six 100'+ trees that are coming down. Where the shop is going, about another three dozen smaller ones. We also have a lot of deadfall, but I'm guessing those don't mill well.

I mean, ~$3800 for a mill? That doesn't seem that bad? I was looking at firewood processors for $15,000.

Just be neat to utilize my land a bit more.

edit: should also mention I have a 40hp tractor with a third function on the front that could use a grapple
Click to expand...

I'm in a similar situation, have 153 acres of mature wood, need a larger shop, wanted to buy a mill, and the wait time is roughly 6-8 months for a Woodmizer. We are having a 10 acre section cleared for a field, and new shop, so that and some selective cutting will more than pay for the mill.

Plan is to get a mill, saw up what I need for the new shop, with lean too for sawmill, and kitchen addition. get hardwood cut, sawn, and dry for cabinets and trim, then focus on cutting the framing material and put up the shop green.

I was looking at closer to $13000 for a wide enough mill to handle 3' plus diameter pine and hemlock.

The tractor will be handy with a mill, I have a 52hp tractor with a grapple and use it to lug out firewood logs when there isn't enough snow cover. I use the grapple more than the skidding winch.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Back Refresh