Lumber Price Outlook 2021

[quarters_ninja]

Here are a couple charts my work used to share estimated lumber costs for 2021. Not overly optimistic....

The green area on this first charge is where lumber prices have historically been trading over the last 5 years. Basically in the $475-675 per 1000 board feet range.

This chart shows where we expect lumber to trade during the 2021 year, between the $1075-1275 per 1000 range.

This is for standard #2 dimensional lumber. We expect OSB and treated to have similar charts though.

These are obviously just projections, but if you are waiting on lumber prices to drop before starting your next project, you may have to wait a while.

 

[bigun]

So we are screwed if we have any projects

 

[Java230]

Yeah..... My bids are NUTS right now.... Sucks for the projects that were tight bids last year

 

[Andrew]

I have been waiting, and I guess continue to do so.

Luckily, I dont have a lot to do currently. Just wishful projects.

 

[[486]]

interesting, roughly double
not nearly as bad as I thought it was
was expecting worse what with how plywood jumped up, though that's probably just snap demand from people panic buying it, like when there were the riots and you couldn't find any sort of sheeting for any price from everyone covering over their windows

 

[Norm]

Loggers and mills are cranking at full speed around here, there just isn't the capacity available to put out more wood. We will go into spring breakup soon, so whatever the mills have stocked up will have to carry them until the ground drys out in May.

 

[Roktoy829]

People are still building like the extra cost is nothing. I am ready to build, but I dont want to pay 20,000 grand or more extra. I'm worried what will happen when it crash and burns and home values fall.

 

[TRINDU]

I'll wait for the crash, I have faith in Biden.

*rooting for financial crisis 2021*

 

[Tin Roof]

What's driving the lumber costs?

 

[rockota]

What's driving the lumber costs?

supply/demand, low interest rates, government debt spending.

Have prices gone up? Or has the dollar gone down?

 

[[486]]

What's driving the lumber costs?

interest rates are stuuuupid low right now.
it is basically free money, but you need something that a bank will cut a loan on
thus, vehicles and houses and land are going for ridicu-stupid money and anyone with land is paying out the ass to get a house built RFN

I am ready to build, but I dont want to pay 20,000 grand or more extra.

wow, twenty million extra from the materials cost jump, man you're planning some swanky ass shit

 

[Tin Roof]

supply/demand, low interest rates, government debt spending.

Have prices gone up? Or has the dollar gone down?

;n320655]

interest rates are stuuuupid low right now.
it is basically free money, but you need something that a bank will cut a loan on
thus, vehicles and houses and land are going for ridicu-stupid money and anyone with land is paying out the ass to get a house built RFN

I know that the demand is there because of the low rates.. but I still don't see the demand being enough to cause this much of a spike in costs. For every one person I know that is saying fuck it I'll absorb the extra costs and build anyway, I know two that are holding off. That's both commercial and residential.

Eight months ago when I asked at lumber yards they said they couldn't get materials due to plant closures, due to covid. Now the same places say the supply is coming and/or available, but prices still keep going up or are holding steady with no drop in sight.

We are watching inflation as it happens.

 

[rockdog57]

I know that the demand is there because of the low rates.. but I still don't see the demand being enough to cause this much of a spike in costs. For every one person I know that is saying fuck it I'll absorb the extra costs and build anyway, I know two that are holding off. That's both commercial and residential.

Eight months ago when I asked at lumber yards they said they couldn't get materials due to plant closures, due to covid. Now the same places say the supply is coming and/or available, but prices still keep going up or are holding steady with no drop in sight.

We are watching inflation as it happens.

Umm, the fed prognosticators say there is no inflation! Nothing to worry about here....move along. I’m not sure where they are looking, they sure as hell haven’t looked at home prices going up 20 percent every three to six months here. Shits gonna implode I predict.

 

[[486]]

I know that the demand is there because of the low rates.. but I still don't see the demand being enough to cause this much of a spike in costs. For every one person I know that is saying fuck it I'll absorb the extra costs and build anyway, I know two that are holding off. That's both commercial and residential.

well how many perople have been holding off for the last year+, you said it yourself:

Eight months ago when I asked at lumber yards they said they couldn't get materials due to plant closures, due to covid.

pent up demand will always make for supply shortages

Ain't there been a lot more fires getting through cities in CA too? as in they're all rebuilding their houses, making for a higher demand from that as well

 

[Norm]

I know that the demand is there because of the low rates.. but I still don't see the demand being enough to cause this much of a spike in costs. For every one person I know that is saying fuck it I'll absorb the extra costs and build anyway, I know two that are holding off. That's both commercial and residential.

Eight months ago when I asked at lumber yards they said they couldn't get materials due to plant closures, due to covid. Now the same places say the supply is coming and/or available, but prices still keep going up or are holding steady with no drop in sight.

We are watching inflation as it happens.

Low interest rates plus people fleeing big cities. Prices to buy or rent in big cities is way down while prices in suburbia are rocketing. Housing prices in MT have rocketed 20% this year alone, anything for sale under $350k has serious competition. Builders are booked up for 2 years in advance here. It's pricing locals out of the market, I've been tempted to sell out, buy a cheap shack someplace and retire myself. My place went for the mid $400k's last year to probably mid $500's this year. Not California money, but a lot for this area where wages are much lower than most places.

 

[Roktoy829]

;n320655]

wow, twenty million extra from the materials cost jump, man you're planning some swanky ass shit

Naw just 20 grand more. Talked to the banker in my area and he said, all of the appriasials are coming in low. Due to the higher cost of materials.

 

[woods]

I've got plans for the shop this year, but I may just get the land cleared. Wait for any lumber. I paid $11 for a PT 2x4x10 to build the firewood sheds.

This shit can go down in price, correct?

 

[dntsdad]

Bought some walnut last week at $11 bd. ft.

Crazy what decent plywood is going for right now also.

The guy at my local place said he is begging his clients to buy right now and stock up because its going up another 40% over the summer.

 

[[486]]

This shit can go down in price, correct?

it has several times
we see 20 dollar OSB every time a hurricane comes though the south

ETA: maybe that's the "normal" price now? I've been seeing $45 or thereabouts on OSB which is funny because 3/4 ply is similar money or less
Eh, whatever.

 

[billdacat]

I am picking scrap OSB out of dumpsters right now.... Shit is good enough for horse pens! I have a small copper pipe project on my plate this week; 1" fucking fittings are locked up behind the counter!

 

[[486]]

I am picking scrap OSB out of dumpsters right now.... Shit is good enough for horse pens! I have a small copper pipe project on my plate this week; 1" fucking fittings are locked up behind the counter!

you're still procrastinating on that pump thing? doubt you even need anything, just reuse the fittings and shit

 

[bigun]

Yeah..... My bids are NUTS right now.... Sucks for the projects that were tight bids last year

I went through this in 2006 with the price on copper wire, price from my suppliers were only good fro that day hard to bid a job 6 weeks away, when you don't know waht your material is going to cost

 

[billdacat]

;n320729]

you're still procrastinating on that pump thing? doubt you even need anything, just reuse the fittings and shit

Reusing any lengths of pipe with an elbow or NPT fitting. Borrowed the GF's roto-zip tool to cup open the wall... Pump is getting pulled tomorrow and installing a 50micron sediment filter to protect the water softener that is going in later this week.

 

[rockota]

I've got plans for the shop this year, but I may just get the land cleared. Wait for any lumber. I paid $11 for a PT 2x4x10 to build the firewood sheds.

This shit can go down in price, correct?

Might be time to make friends with a local sawyer...

im watching materials auctions lately. Mostly because I want to finish the inside of the barn and am being too lazy to mill the lumber myself... but auction prices are rivaling box stores, so I’m going to put the mill to use hard starting in a couple of weeks ... I think there will be some money to be made for hobbyist sawyers who want to make a go at full time.

 

[bgaidan]

Might be time to make friends with a local sawyer...

im watching materials auctions lately. Mostly because I want to finish the inside of the barn and am being too lazy to mill the lumber myself... but auction prices are rivaling box stores, so I’m going to put the mill to use hard starting in a couple of weeks ... I think there will be some money to be made for hobbyist sawyers who want to make a go at full time.

I've always wanted a bandsaw mill and the pole barn at my new place is a perfect location to set one up. I wonder if companies like Woodmizer are seeing crazy sales too.

 

[rockota]

I've always wanted a bandsaw mill and the pole barn at my new place is a perfect location to set one up. I wonder if companies like Woodmizer are seeing crazy sales too.

I have a woodland mills, and I know they are seeing higher demand.

bout some 4X4’s from a young sawyer about 6” miles from me last year. He had the raw material that I didn’t, and he was affordable. Fully hydraulic, 20’ all electric mill. He works with a logging company and a tree service to get raw materials and was going gang busters.

right about now, I’m wishing I had 20 acres of nice slow grow pine and cedar....

 

[45acp]

I've got plans for the shop this year, but I may just get the land cleared. Wait for any lumber. I paid $11 for a PT 2x4x10 to build the firewood sheds.

This shit can go down in price, correct?

You got a screaming deal on that 2x. That's non-PT price now.

 

[woods]

You got a screaming deal on that 2x. That's non-PT price now.

Ah, really? Sheds needed like 10 each. Maybe 14. That added up quick.

This better not be this "new norm" shit I keep hearing about.

 

[bgaidan]

I have a woodland mills, and I know they are seeing higher demand.

bout some 4X4’s from a young sawyer about 6” miles from me last year. He had the raw material that I didn’t, and he was affordable. Fully hydraulic, 20’ all electric mill. He works with a logging company and a tree service to get raw materials and was going gang busters.

right about now, I’m wishing I had 20 acres of nice slow grow pine and cedar....

I'm a PM for a company that does civiil/environmental work and we regularly have jobs that involve clearing. The bigger landfills we usually sub out and they take the timber (though I could probably pilfer a few logs here and there), but our stream projects are usually selective clearing that we slowly take down as we move around...and they're usually big hardwoods that have grown next to water. We did one last year in VA that was loaded with black walnut, cherry and sycamore and it all got cut up and given away as firewood.

 

[[486]]

This better not be this "new norm" shit I keep hearing about.

well, it is what you get with a 15 dollar minimum wage