Lumber Price Outlook 2021

[rockdog57]

Basically anything that a bank won't lend or that the yuppies don't want is still cheap. "You can't just slap a spec house on this with no dirt work" land is still cheap. 90s shitboxes that aren't trucks are still cheap.

But 90% of the people on this board are old, lazy and wealthy enough that they're competing for the same stupid shit the yuppies and the "but the payment is affordable" morons want. The people who want to buy SxSs or just cut a check and have a bunch of new construction material dropped off, or some other turnkey solution to whatever the of the minute is, are competing with other idiots and will get screwed on price.

There's a handful of people on this board who you don't see bitching about prices. They're the people who plan their shit out well in advance and can jump on deals for things they'll need in a year and have enough projects going at once that they can always find something to make progress on without paying out the ass.

Asscrack, no way that holds water here! Tons of people are coming in paying cash site unseen! I’ve witnessed this myself on homes that I not only would walk away from, but run from. Step away from the crack pipe! We are in an inflationary cycle right now. I witnessed this in the late 70’s. Concrete shortages, lumber shortages, brick shortages etc. It all came crashing down because inflation was out of control from an overheated market. We have enough years behind us that the buyers now weren’t witness to that crash and don’t recognize what’s coming.

 

[arse_sidewards]

Asscrack, no way that holds water here! Tons of people are coming in paying cash site unseen! I’ve witnessed this myself on homes that I not only would walk away from, but run from.

I was talking nationally.

Of course Utah is more fucked up. Every state that Californians are fleeing to is more tucked up.

 

[Roktoy829]

Asscrack, no way that holds water here! Tons of people are coming in paying cash site unseen! I’ve witnessed this myself on homes that I not only would walk away from, but run from. Step away from the crack pipe! We are in an inflationary cycle right now. I witnessed this in the late 70’s. Concrete shortages, lumber shortages, brick shortages etc. It all came crashing down because inflation was out of control from an overheated market. We have enough years behind us that the buyers now weren’t witness to that crash and don’t recognize what’s coming.

How long did it take for the price of materials, to return to pre shortage prices? I'm not old enough to remember, but heard the stories of the high interest on loans. Also it feels like the late 70's may repeat itself.

 

[junkytj]

We were started building our house right before the kung flu. We had all our lumber on site by the time shit paper got scarce. Our construction loan appraisal on the property was $480K, after construction when the building prices due to lumber went through the roof, the conversion load appraised over $750. That is in 11 months. I'd bet if we put it on the market, it would sell at $900 today looking at the homes around across the bay in a neighborhood for reference and how much they have went up. If our dock permit gets approved and I finish some projects, it will be over a million.

 

[rockdog57]

How long did it take for the price of materials, to return to pre shortage prices? I'm not old enough to remember, but heard the stories of the high interest on loans. Also it feels like the late 70's may repeat itself.

They dropped over a years time. But nobody was building. Pretty much nobody! The fed raised interest rates overnight to stanch inflation. That’s the only tool they have to stop runaway inflation. I can see that happening again.

 

[92 Green YJ]

Guess I will hold off on the shop build at the new house u til next year.

 

[woods]

Guess I will hold off on the shop build at the new house u til next year.

Same here. Think I'll start off clearing the land this year first. Do the sawmill thing in the meantime. Be nice just to have a place to park the truck and implements. Let the ground settle for a year or two. I've got about 8' at least of backfill to compact before any foundation goes in.

 

[boardbysled]

(Untitled)

Do timber prices trail lumber prices?

Generally yes however it is extremely localized. For instance, the Southeast US is generally facing an oversupply of logs and a lack of manufacturing capacity leading to deflated raw log prices but inflated lumber prices.

Western Oregon is beginning to face a similar short term issue led on by the salvage efforts of burned timber from last summer which will likely last the rest of the year.

Hardwoods are also seeing depressed log prices because the primary market of China has tariffs on log and lumber imports from the US and we have tariffs on Chinese made wood products such as cabinetry.

 

[clodhopper]

They dropped over a years time. But nobody was building. Pretty much nobody! The fed raised interest rates overnight to stanch inflation. That’s the only tool they have to stop runaway inflation. I can see that happening again.

The chatter is the fed will hold off bumping interest rates to let inflation get going. The reason is inflation has been too low for too long and they are trying to get that 3% inflation rate they view as so important to our economy. So, that means we will be at 5, 6 or more percent for awhile. yay.

 

[rugger]

I'm locked in at 2.8% and shopping for a house now. I would consider buying land and building but the building materials are so high when you can actually find them. It's crazy.

 

[[486]]

I'm locked in at 2.8%

see, that's why we got this fuckin problem
that's insane

 

[Clemson13]

;n321694]

see, that's why we got this fuckin problem
that's insane

Descember 2019 i got a 3.4 with no points. It was nuts and about .6% below market. Then 2020 and i had to get a damn rate adjustment down to 2.8. This is a stupid F-ing rate. I would have bought more land if i had gotten this last year. Only kind of pissed