Poke
I’m condescending
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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?
- Thread starter brantb
- Start date
gunracer1
Collector of fine junk
leasing is having someone else buy your vehicle and rent it back to you. I'm sure they do it for nothing.
I had a conversation with someone yesterday about all this and nothing makes sense anymore. COVID has caused massive shortages, the fake money pumped into the economy is just stupid. My neighbor across the street moved from CA to ID. Paid double what we paid 2 years ago. The guy I was talking with asked if CA home prices are tanking? NOPE, atleast not where my brother is in suburbia. So people are fleeing like mad out of CA, prices go up here but prices in CA are still going up in suburbia....WTF...Are apartments empty in LA and SF?
New car lots are damn near empty, same with travel trailer and SxS lots, gas prices are going up, everything is going up and everyone I talk to is complaining that they need to hire employees bad but cant find anyone...so no one is working but people are buying shit like crazy with a the stimulus money? I mean the stimulus money isn't enough to buy homes and cars and SxS's and all sorts of random shit??? Or are the banks just approving everyone and everything like they did in the mid 2000s?
My approach is probably not the "get rich quick" or "take advantage of the situation when shit does hit the fan" so I am probably screwing myself when it all tanks but it's simple...have no debt but the house. I have 3 paid off cars and a company car. Have money set aside for a rainy day when the economy tanks and we all lose our jobs....and thats it. We wanted to buy a 30 ft travel trailer but we are holding off....whats the point? Prices are stupid, we will minimize the times we want one and when we do really really do (like KOH) we will rent one and then when the shit tanks we will buy one.
New car lots are damn near empty, same with travel trailer and SxS lots, gas prices are going up, everything is going up and everyone I talk to is complaining that they need to hire employees bad but cant find anyone...so no one is working but people are buying shit like crazy with a the stimulus money? I mean the stimulus money isn't enough to buy homes and cars and SxS's and all sorts of random shit??? Or are the banks just approving everyone and everything like they did in the mid 2000s?
My approach is probably not the "get rich quick" or "take advantage of the situation when shit does hit the fan" so I am probably screwing myself when it all tanks but it's simple...have no debt but the house. I have 3 paid off cars and a company car. Have money set aside for a rainy day when the economy tanks and we all lose our jobs....and thats it. We wanted to buy a 30 ft travel trailer but we are holding off....whats the point? Prices are stupid, we will minimize the times we want one and when we do really really do (like KOH) we will rent one and then when the shit tanks we will buy one.
montrose818
Banned
Kiss my ass
Your keyword there is CAN, not will or even remotely true.
meh. been on that bandwagon my whole life and jumped ship. 6 hours of wrenching on my own vehicle a month (typical on a 100k+ mile) pays a monthly payment for a brand new car of the same caliber. Hour for hour, my time costs more working than wrenching. And in 5 years after its paid off, I will still have years of driving before I have to do anything on it. Or I can lease for less, but I like keeping stuff for a while.
montrose818
Banned
It is a good point
arse_sidewards
Red Skull Member
- Joined
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- 71
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- 8,571
When shit hits the fan money will be taken from people like you and me to pay for people like Poke and Montrose
Thefishguy77
Part time dumbass
Me thinks he is confusing maintenance with restoration due to long term neglect. I have a friend like that and he thinks I need to make it factory new in order for it to be current.Kiss my ass
Your keyword there is CAN, not will or even remotely true.
I explained to him he has paid over $120,000 In truck payments since we both bought early GMT800. Mine is a 99.5 1500 his was the first year of the Duramax 2500’s when ever that was. He has since owned that truck, a GMT900 3500, a 2016 Denali 2500, and is now on a new AT4. Ironically he wont listen to me about constant probelms with GM electronics and uses the warranty to solve them, yet says I still think my first Duramax was the most solid of the new trucks he has owned. To each their own but my used $14,000 truck with 41,000 miles on it now has over 3444,000 miles on it and I have done maintenance and a rear end. I somehow think my cost of ownership is a bit lower than his.
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I guess we are the idiots then....I'm off to go buy a brand new boat, SxS, truck, 2nd house and a damn travel trailer.
Wheelin66bronco
Pure Blood
Yep. I'm on the same strategy as you. My home has more than doubled in value in the last 3 years. We're piling up cash to buy an investment house when it crashes, but probably not buying around here.
brantb
1003
Another thing that i am wondering about is if anyone is getting larger than normal raises/COLAs. It seems most companies are still trying to hire, we had half our engineering staff leave in the last year. About 30 people left, another 12 were rolled off this program. At this point they are looking to start slowly hiring. Our raises come out in july, and just had a talk with my manager yesterday if he had insight on what raises would be like this year. He said he had no idea, but a coworker talked with his manager and said he was expecting the same as previous years. He isnt engineering, but was told 2.5% which in my opinion is shit.
I have an interview today with a new company who offered around 20% more total compensation. That tells me that companies have increased margin off their employees, or are willing to hire new employees at competitive wages, but let current employees go due to stagnant wages. That has been my entire career since i got out of the military, which i just do not understand. Last employer said it was two different buckets of money. Retention vs new hire.
I have an interview today with a new company who offered around 20% more total compensation. That tells me that companies have increased margin off their employees, or are willing to hire new employees at competitive wages, but let current employees go due to stagnant wages. That has been my entire career since i got out of the military, which i just do not understand. Last employer said it was two different buckets of money. Retention vs new hire.
We had one of the hottest economies I know of in our history pre-covid. We did something we've never done before and purposely threw the parking awl in running balls out. Some shit is still there in the economy like all the money we brought in from overseas that was out of circulation for so long it wasn't even accounted for, we invested heavily in some businesses for growth. Now we are winding out on the interstate and all the broke shit is flying out the back. Rather than coming along after and seeing what broke and addressing that, Biden's handlers decided it was the right time to start writing checks.
The lack of inventory is a supply problem from some of the pieces that got fucked up when he threw it in park. That's why it is heavily market dependent on how much it has risen. For instance, copper isn't the main problem causing wiring to be expensive. It's the resin in the insulation causing the manufacturing to be held up. It's semiconductors in the automotive and computer markets. It's labor being held out because of the unemployment benefits.
That doesn't mean there isn't inflation. There most definitely is. You can't dump this much monopoly money in the game and not see inflation. This is a really complex time right now and we have a senile old man running the show who was a dirty motherfucker when he had his wits about him.
Me personally, I saw the writing on the wall when Obamma sent stimulus checks directly to people and did the huge bailouts during the housing crash in 04-07 timeframe. I was younger and wasn't worried about the risk or hard work. Bought rent houses during the downturn and bought the nicest house I could afford the payments on to live in and hunted for and finally bought property to eventually live on. When this covid deal came out, I pulled the trigger on building the house immediately and had all the shit purchased and on site before the shortages were noticed. We sold the last of our rent houses last year. This is too much risk for me to try to capitalize on it because the .gov is fucking with the market too much and I don't have any senator buddies that will tell me who they are going to favor. My moves from the last downturn took me from living in a $90K house with 2 kids headed to college and no money to send them to 1 out of college and one with the money to finish and setting in a million doll hair home with a 400K mortgage I am handling easy. My 2011 35K truck fits just fine in the garage and my wife's 2019 mustang works out just fine too. Both are paid off. I'm in no hurry to pay off a 2% mortgage when the dollar is devaluing so bad, but I have no interest in rolling the dice again or maintaining rental properties on nights and weekends.
The lack of inventory is a supply problem from some of the pieces that got fucked up when he threw it in park. That's why it is heavily market dependent on how much it has risen. For instance, copper isn't the main problem causing wiring to be expensive. It's the resin in the insulation causing the manufacturing to be held up. It's semiconductors in the automotive and computer markets. It's labor being held out because of the unemployment benefits.
That doesn't mean there isn't inflation. There most definitely is. You can't dump this much monopoly money in the game and not see inflation. This is a really complex time right now and we have a senile old man running the show who was a dirty motherfucker when he had his wits about him.
Me personally, I saw the writing on the wall when Obamma sent stimulus checks directly to people and did the huge bailouts during the housing crash in 04-07 timeframe. I was younger and wasn't worried about the risk or hard work. Bought rent houses during the downturn and bought the nicest house I could afford the payments on to live in and hunted for and finally bought property to eventually live on. When this covid deal came out, I pulled the trigger on building the house immediately and had all the shit purchased and on site before the shortages were noticed. We sold the last of our rent houses last year. This is too much risk for me to try to capitalize on it because the .gov is fucking with the market too much and I don't have any senator buddies that will tell me who they are going to favor. My moves from the last downturn took me from living in a $90K house with 2 kids headed to college and no money to send them to 1 out of college and one with the money to finish and setting in a million doll hair home with a 400K mortgage I am handling easy. My 2011 35K truck fits just fine in the garage and my wife's 2019 mustang works out just fine too. Both are paid off. I'm in no hurry to pay off a 2% mortgage when the dollar is devaluing so bad, but I have no interest in rolling the dice again or maintaining rental properties on nights and weekends.
welndmn
Well Done Man
I have a few people that are selling their homes and are going to rent until the crash, then buy again.
I really want to see the math on this to see if it even makes sense.
Around here, (San Francisco Bay area) most homes are 1 million (sure there are less, they are more, just stay with me).
To rent a home it's 4k-5k a month here.
When do people think the crash is coming? 2 years?
at 5K a month, that would be 120k spend on rent!
I really want to see the math on this to see if it even makes sense.
Around here, (San Francisco Bay area) most homes are 1 million (sure there are less, they are more, just stay with me).
To rent a home it's 4k-5k a month here.
When do people think the crash is coming? 2 years?
at 5K a month, that would be 120k spend on rent!
Those numbers are insane to me since I live in a cheap state vs. CA residential real-estate wise.
Selling your home at a peak price "pre-crash" makes sense if you truly believe that's coming to buy back in low. However, paying 4-5K per month completely negates the point of doing this in my mind. For that idea to work I would have to be cutting back everything to almost a bare minimum and just pile up cash the best I could.
2big bronco
Og irate
I just like to ask. "What if prices keep going up for 2-3 years and crash back to todays prices"
If your in it for the long haul i dont think there is ever a bad time to purchase a home you can afford
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clodhopper
Get off my lawn, punk!
that 6 hours of wrenching only counts as value if it prevents you from earning income for 6 hours at your job. If you are really doing weekend wrenching on a non-work-a-job day, it costs you nothing. Proper evaluation is the weekend wrenching saves you from paying the mechanic. So a reduction in cost. If you are spending more on a new vehicle, so you can sit on the couch on the weekend, then your justification may make you feel better but really it is costing you more. Just like buying a motorcycle, along with insurance and registration, in order to tell the wife you are saving gas riding it to work, when really it saves ~$100 a year in gas and overall costs you much more. But we all have our ways to justify things to the wife, right?
grandeyota
Word
My neighbor bought his house for 425k about 14 months ago. Mowed his lawn a few times and not much else done to the house. Sold for 625k a couple weeks ago. Sure there is more than inflation at play here but it’s gotta be a good part of it.
I knew people that bought houses at the peak of the last bubble that lost their asses when it popped. They were left holding the hot potato when the home had lost 200K in value. We were making killer oilfield money, it popped at the same time. We lost our jobs and they couldn’t pay for them. They got foreclosed on and wrecked their families lives for years. 12 years later those homes are selling for 2/3 again more than they were in 08/09.
I have another friend who could make about 300k on his home right now but wouldn’t have any where to move to if he did.
TRINDU
PBB Orphan
Typically, lease payment(s) in total + residual value are more that if you were to buy the vehicle outright. That figure changes with model, month, money factor, etc but 99.5% of the time its that way.
You dont "trade" a lease in. You turn it in or have the option to buy at the agreed upon residual value. Where's the part where you made $10k+?
montrose818
Banned
there is always work to do. and the new vehicle will be 10x more comfortable, get better MPG, and break down never. If used vehicle is a 2nd gen cummins, disregard everything I said.
its like building a rig and trying to get your money back from it - your labor, parta you threw at it, are worth nothing in the end. pennies on the dollar.
Poke
I’m condescending
- Joined
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- 763
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- 1,393
I trade them in, every time, before turn in.
I am not sure you are qualified for this conversation.Truck campers are selling at crazy used prices right now. I could get my money back out of the 2018 model I bought new.
Pickups are going nuts as well. I'm seeing ads for 2wd Nissan crew cabs - 2019 model asking more than what I paid for our 2019 4x4 brand new.
Lumber....well that's been covered.
Homes....I've seen a 20% jump on my house according to Zillow in the past year. Little shitbox houses going for 400k around here...it's scary.
Gas. Thanks Joe.
It's all starting. Right now interest rates should be way up as a way to hedge against this, but we don't even have that defense. There's no stimulus that's gonna work after all this hits rock bottom.
Pickups are going nuts as well. I'm seeing ads for 2wd Nissan crew cabs - 2019 model asking more than what I paid for our 2019 4x4 brand new.
Lumber....well that's been covered.
Homes....I've seen a 20% jump on my house according to Zillow in the past year. Little shitbox houses going for 400k around here...it's scary.
Gas. Thanks Joe.
It's all starting. Right now interest rates should be way up as a way to hedge against this, but we don't even have that defense. There's no stimulus that's gonna work after all this hits rock bottom.
clodhopper
Get off my lawn, punk!
Every day is another announcement of massive fed spending project. ALL of them are to be funded by increasing taxes on the wealthy.
Yesterday: Biden raises minimum wage for federal contracts to $15 an hour
Best part:
Yesterday: Biden raises minimum wage for federal contracts to $15 an hour
Best part:
FleshEater
Ordinary Average Guy
Me thinks he is confusing maintenance with restoration due to long term neglect. I have a friend like that and he thinks I need to make it factory new in order for it to be current.
I explained to him he has paid over $120,000 In truck payments since we both bought early GMT800. Mine is a 99.5 1500 his was the first year of the Duramax 2500’s when ever that was. He has since owned that truck, a GMT900 3500, a 2016 Denali 2500, and is now on a new AT4. Ironically he wont listen to me about constant probelms with GM electronics and uses the warranty to solve them, yet says I still think my first Duramax was the most solid of the new trucks he has owned. To each their own but my used $14,000 truck with 41,000 miles on it now has over 3444,000 miles on it and I have done maintenance and a rear end. I somehow think my cost of ownership is a bit lower than his.
For sure. Some people have been in payments since they were 16, 18, 20? That’s a fortune.
We have 5 vehicles (5 titles sitting in my hand, too) and have roughly $55,000 in them, which is less than most new trucks. These vehicles have been accumulated over the past 7 years and I plan to drive them all another 7, 10, 15 years.
clodhopper
Get off my lawn, punk!
It is pretty clear that "they" (elected leaders) have given up even trying to maintain any sense of reality. The lack of effort in the reasoning is so damn insulting.
Thefishguy77
Part time dumbass
For starters stop referring to them as “leaders” and start reminding them they are representatives of the people. Words matter, use them wisely.
DannyK
Well-known member
MAYBE if you have a real POS and pay the dealer to do ALL of the maintenance and repairs. I've spent about $5,900 on maintenance and repairs over a 14 yr period on my truck. That is only about $35/month.
clodhopper
Get off my lawn, punk!
For starters stop referring to them as “leaders” and start reminding them they are representatives of the people. Words matter, use them wisely.
Oh man, what an awesome point! HoW dId We EvEr Get ThRouGh LiFe wiThOuT tHaT MorSel Of KnOwLedGe?
Seriously man. Quibble about shitass language useage somewhere else. Leader has a wide pattern of usage. Besides, there aint a one of em on this forum just waiting to dance around cause someone called em a Leader. The jackasses already believe they are smarter than we are, which is the reason they went into politics. My word choice will have ZERO impact in the world. If you get your giggles outta carefully parsing specific titles to certain parties in life, knock yourself out. I cannot be bothered with that trivial shit. I vote them out whenever I have the chance.
Poke - i am simpleton and need verification if my dumbed down version of your game is correct
- lease top tier vehicle
- return lease before the term is up, giving you negotiating power
- you negotiate some cash, which all the but offsets the cost of the lease
- dealers negotiate because they want to sell the near new vehicle at near new vehicle price, since the money is made on the loan not the vehicle
- rinse and repeat.
Rockbuggy84
Moderator
- Joined
- May 19, 2020
- Member Number
- 314
- Messages
- 1,016
Can you post up an example of a $75,000 lease vehicle that comes with a payment of $300-$420?
Break down this math for us.