What's new
By:
Filters

How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

The used atv/dirtbike market is inflated. Everyone knows you got stim money and marked their garbage up $1200.

Hell nonrunning literal junk is starting at 8-9-$1000.

Yea buddy, no brakes, engine smoking. Push starting, flat tire, and a carb clean. Yes please take my money.:shaking:
 
My town in small so I can tell just how hard all the moving is hitting. Milk, eggs, bread, flour, butter, are all the same price. Gas went up. Vehicles, anything Michigan/snow related, property and building *anything* have gone through the roof.

There are a lot of people moving and I don't know if this one area is remarkable because no one moved here before, or if this is larger than anyone has gauged yet.
 
Trackerbacker(fvckvs) said:
I was using hyperbole.

Im doing a few things. Cash, hedge assets, and (exhaustively searching to) purchase rental w/high downturn occupancy rate, while reducing assets that'll take the hit on a housing correction as utilization for better personal/ business advantages.

People dont realize how truly little they need to be happy, provide a happy childhood to their children, and how quickly being accustomed to luxuries can be your downfall. It's good to visit luxury, keep poverty as you neighbor, and remain grounded in knowing itll all be torn from you one day.

Kind of a hedonist approach on steroids. grandparents i grew up with/ raised me/ passed me around as if joint custody during my youth, grew up in the depression (born 1915-27), my wife grew up during the Bosnian war (spent a few years 'camping' as she says), all we know/ learned/ taught was self reliance, ignore the out side, and how few ingredients you needed to make a hearty meal that could be stretched and repurposed for a week.

When my grandparents died in 07,I cleaned out a pallet of surge....and drank that for about or so
Click to expand...

Gotcha. You clearly have a handle on money is fungible and can disappear into smoke. I get the gamble you are taking on and am cheering for you. I think my upbringing was similar to yours in that we have little to nuthin most of the time. Pop was extremely "efficient" financially was the only way we made it. My wife did her time in poverty and isnt afraid to see it all disappear if that came to be. I am hedging 8ways just covering bases as I can, but I hold onto the stories my Grandad told me where he was doing the same thing before the crash and ended up starting over from pennies 3 times during the depression. The other thing that stuck with me from my grandparents was how they described the 2 types of people. Those that didnt get hung up on money, did what they had to, made it through, and the other type of people who emotionally collapsed seeing their lives crumble, many die-ing, suiciding or were just never the same again. I am convinced that the depression built the tough capable people that were able to win WW2.
 
clodhopper said:
Gotcha. You clearly have a handle on money is fungible and can disappear into smoke. I get the gamble you are taking on and am cheering for you. I think my upbringing was similar to yours in that we have little to nuthin most of the time. Pop was extremely "efficient" financially was the only way we made it. My wife did her time in poverty and isnt afraid to see it all disappear if that came to be. I am hedging 8ways just covering bases as I can, but I hold onto the stories my Grandad told me where he was doing the same thing before the crash and ended up starting over from pennies 3 times during the depression. The other thing that stuck with me from my grandparents was how they described the 2 types of people. Those that didnt get hung up on money, did what they had to, made it through, and the other type of people who emotionally collapsed seeing their lives crumble, many die-ing, suiciding or were just never the same again. I am convinced that the depression built the tough capable people that were able to win WW2.
Click to expand...


Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.

If you're into reading:
The hard things about hard things-Horowitz
Principals-dalio
Seneca (letters from a stoic)

less betterer (like filler type shit/easy observational studies) :
Hard america soft america.
 
Last edited:
Inflation is here. Zero percent interest on new cars, combined with unemployment income so high people won’t apply for jobs and three bonus checks make it really hard for the big guy in the White House to throttle anything back. If people really aren’t paying rent for a year their credit is going to be screwed when they try to buy the cheap house when the bubble pops. America will get back to that ‘average 5% interest on home loans’ life over the next three years. Christmas 2021 is going to look different than 2020 because all the money people had to blow for the last 20 months now goes to pay back the accounts it came from.
 
RunningProblem said:
Inflation is here. Zero percent interest on new cars, combined with unemployment income so high people won’t apply for jobs and three bonus checks make it really hard for the big guy in the White House to throttle anything back. If people really aren’t paying rent for a year their credit is going to be screwed when they try to buy the cheap house when the bubble pops. America will get back to that ‘average 5% interest on home loans’ life over the next three years. Christmas 2021 is going to look different than 2020 because all the money people had to blow for the last 20 months now goes to pay back the accounts it came from.
Click to expand...

Dude, zero percent interest on new cars has been around for 20 years, thats nothing new. Shit, zero percent on TV's, furniture, appliances has been around for a long time. how does that tell us anything?
 
midwestzj said:
Dude, zero percent interest on new cars has been around for 20 years, thats nothing new. Shit, zero percent on TV's, furniture, appliances has been around for a long time. how does that tell us anything?
Click to expand...

Really? I haven’t seen zero percent being offered for the last 20 years. I’ve seen 3% at plenty of places. Zero percent from a dealership tells me they can’t get enough money coming in to keep going. Literally costs you nothing to drive the vehicle for five years. If no one buys vehicles they close factories and stop ordering parts which increases unemployment. No way Joe Biden keeps extending the federal unemployment perks of Covid 19 for four more years.

zero percent for 12-18 months on a tv and furniture has existed....expect if you don’t pay it off you get to pay all that interest the next month. Not the same.
 
RunningProblem said:
Really? I haven’t seen zero percent being offered for the last 20 years. I’ve seen 3% at plenty of places. Zero percent from a dealership tells me they can’t get enough money coming in to keep going. Literally costs you nothing to drive the vehicle for five years. If no one buys vehicles they close factories and stop ordering parts which increases unemployment. No way Joe Biden keeps extending the federal unemployment perks of Covid 19 for four more years.

zero percent for 12-18 months on a tv and furniture has existed....expect if you don’t pay it off you get to pay all that interest the next month. Not the same.
Click to expand...

i sold cars in 2001. you could either get the factory cash back or the 0% interest.
 
Bump. This crazy real estate shit has to be an inflation driven bubble right? Sold my house when I moved down here and held onto the money to buy something when the time came. Times come, went and looked at an absolute pile of shit listed for $356K.

Please tell me that the 6 million people that aren’t paying their mortgages are about due to pay the piper. This bs is unfathomable.
 
JR4X said:
Bump. This crazy real estate shit has to be an inflation driven bubble right? Sold my house when I moved down here and held onto the money to buy something when the time came. Times come, went and looked at an absolute pile of shit listed for $356K.

Please tell me that the 6 million people that aren’t paying their mortgages are about due to pay the piper. This bs is unfathomable.
Click to expand...
That's exactly what it is.

Fed pumps money into securities and zeroes out interest. Everyone's stock portfolio skrockets and mortgage money becomes free. People cash out and buy houses.
 
arse_sidewards said:
That's exactly what it is.

Fed pumps money into securities and zeroes out interest. Everyone's stock portfolio skrockets and mortgage money becomes free. People cash out and buy houses.
Click to expand...
1. People are moving mass out of big cities and communist states including businesses.
2. Not enough supply in suburbia and rural america
3. prices climb
4. The fed wants inflation, but 10% ( what I think the real inflation number is) is going to be brutal

2.8 million people are behind on mortgages, about 800k of those will go bank owned or get sold before foreclosure. 8 million or so face eviction from rentals. Next year in places like AK, Hawaii, Vegas, etc that got hit the hardest will be the best places to buy, Don't look for a real estate bust in places people are moving too like Idaho, Montana, Utah. I have a big pile of cash waiting to build or buy at better prices, but it might not be where I live now. My current primary house gained about $300k in value in the last year, not sure how long that will last but it's crazy in free states.
 
Our house has increased in "value" by 25% in the last 3yrs. I'm not buying that currency devaluation isn't a major part of that. We've stopped investing in US currency dependent anything outside of our ESOP (which is not an option). Bonds fucking suck too. I'd be willing to bet people will relocate to Mars just to find a new, true, free market just like the colonists of old.
 
brantb said:
I agree. Another example with boats, because i miss mine. Last year the local dealer was advertising 40% off sticker for 19 MY boats. Im sure you could negotiate more to get to 45%. Typically a hold over will be 30%, 35% if they really want it gone. People who bought those leftovers were getting offers months later for 20-25k over what they paid. 21 MY boats are not being discounted much due to demand, and i doubt there will be many leftovers. They are expecting a big jump in price for 22 MY boats, so basically that is dragging up the used market with it. 10-20 year old boats are selling for almost what they were when bought new.

Only a matter of time before there are large price jumps for new vehicles, especially trucks, so that will also drag used values up
Click to expand...
Jumping in late, but I don’t know how old you are but the high end, well cared for boat market has done this forever. I have a friend that for the last 25 yrs has paid cash for a new boat, used it for a few years and then sold for damn near what he paid; like clockwork.
 
i Feel like with the demand and price of materials now new vehicles are gonna go up hard.


like 2022 f350 is gonna be 150k, I could be wrong but mu hunch
 
Lawless said:
I've been seeing '21 F150s for over 100K so it may be there already.
Click to expand...
Maybe the shelby edition or other faggotry. Most are still in the 35k-50k for a XL to lariat. People buying a loaded F150 are 'tards anyway, so might as well break it off.
 
TRINDU said:
Maybe the shelby edition or other faggotry. Most are still in the 35k-50k for a XL to lariat. People buying a loaded F150 are 'tards anyway, so might as well break it off.
Click to expand...
Loaded vehicles and special editions hold their value much much better. A lease on a loaded special edition vehicle can be less than or close to a base model. I know because I lease my vehicles and the leasing company will tell you, if you call them, that you can be way ahead by going with the editions and you will make a lot of money at turn in. I’ve made $6k - $15,000 on trading in my leases in the last month. Now if you apply that to your payments, like $15,000 divided by 36 months. You pay way way less for the special editions. So your doing it wrong if your driving base models to save money. Your paying more and rolling your windows up by hand. Lol!

In my quick autotrader search there are no fords under $41k and it jumps to the mid 50’s quickly.
 
Wilson said:
Jumping in late, but I don’t know how old you are but the high end, well cared for boat market has done this forever. I have a friend that for the last 25 yrs has paid cash for a new boat, used it for a few years and then sold for damn near what he paid; like clockwork.
Click to expand...
:shaking: You must not be shopping for old enough junk then.

High end boats that were on the wrong side of the glass over wood to glass only transition did not hold value.

All glass performance boats (which went all glass in as early as the 70s-90s depending on application) didn't hold value because over the 80s-present the engineers keep getting better and better design and simulation tools that lets them wring more performance out of the newer stuff reducing the value of the older stuff.

If you're willing to put up with wood "single wealthy owner who treated it nicely and did all the maintenance on schedule" boats are cheap.
 
brantb said:
I agree. Another example with boats, because i miss mine. Last year the local dealer was advertising 40% off sticker for 19 MY boats. Im sure you could negotiate more to get to 45%. Typically a hold over will be 30%, 35% if they really want it gone. People who bought those leftovers were getting offers months later for 20-25k over what they paid. 21 MY boats are not being discounted much due to demand, and i doubt there will be many leftovers. They are expecting a big jump in price for 22 MY boats, so basically that is dragging up the used market with it. 10-20 year old boats are selling for almost what they were when bought new.

Only a matter of time before there are large price jumps for new vehicles, especially trucks, so that will also drag used values up
Click to expand...

I just bought a ‘21 boat for $117k. Actually ordered in September. Nice but not high end. I could sell it for more and it’s not in the water yet. I see people selling 1-4 year old boats to close to what I paid new.
 
Poke said:
Loaded vehicles and special editions hold their value much much better. A lease on a loaded special edition vehicle can be less than or close to a base model. I know because I lease my vehicles and the leasing company will tell you, if you call them, that you can be way ahead by going with the editions and you will make a lot of money at turn in. I’ve made $6k - $15,000 on trading in my leases in the last month. Now if you apply that to your payments, like $15,000 divided by 36 months. You pay way way less for the special editions. So your doing it wrong if your driving base models to save money. Your paying more and rolling your windows up by hand. Lol!

In my quick autotrader search there are no fords under $41k and it jumps to the mid 50’s quickly.
Click to expand...

Remind me again, what price premium does an Eddie Baur Explorer command over an XL Explorer in similar condition? :lmao:

This math only works out if you're the guy buying "muh million mile 4Runner" and reselling it every three years and even then it doesn't really "work". At best you'll get back what you put in. You may as well toss the price difference in a savings account if that's what you want. Heck, shove it in an index fund and it will probably make money.

But hey, not my money, tell yourself whatever lies you need to.
 
Poke said:
I just bought a ‘21 boat for $117k. Nice but not high end.
Click to expand...
im curious, since im not a boat guy, and my exposure to the boating world is minimal outside of wiring a few marinas and docks, and the obscure fishing tournament, and growing up on the mighty Mississippi..

$117k boat...

what and why...and whats high end in that category?
 
Trackerbacker(fvckvs) said:
im curious, since im not a boat guy, and my exposure to the boating world is minimal outside of wiring a few marinas and docks, and the obscure fishing tournament, and growing up on the mighty Mississippi..

$117k boat...

what and why...and whats high end in that category?
Click to expand...
$230-$260k is high end for the same 24’ size. I have the entry level model loaded with an upgraded engine.

wake board/surf boats.
 
arse_sidewards said:
Remind me again, what price premium does an Eddie Baur Explorer command over an XL Explorer in similar condition? :lmao:
Click to expand...

When buying used you are at the mercy of what others were willing to buy new. I’m super picky about the vehicles and interior packages I buy. That said, the one true garage kept barn find I was blessed with finding is a paint scheme and interior color I despise.
 
arse_sidewards said:
Remind me again, what price premium does an Eddie Baur Explorer command over an XL Explorer in similar condition? :lmao:

This math only works out if you're the guy buying "muh million mile 4Runner" and reselling it every three years and even then it doesn't really "work". At best you'll get back what you put in. You may as well toss the price difference in a savings account if that's what you want. Heck, shove it in an index fund and it will probably make money.

But hey, not my money, tell yourself whatever lies you need to.
Click to expand...
You are not factoring in almost no maintenance, you don’t pay taxes on trade in dollars, they are under full warranty the entire time you own them, you gain the comfort of loaded cars/features and fords don’t hold their value for shit. Used car maintenance and repairs can cost more than having a payment. A lot of financial advisers tell people to get comfortable with a payment young, you’ll have one till your retired, but I’m sure you knew that. So if you put blinders on to 90% of the aspects of owning a vehicle, then you have a point. Otherwise....
 
Poke said:
Loaded vehicles and special editions hold their value much much better. A lease on a loaded special edition vehicle can be less than or close to a base model. I know because I lease my vehicles and the leasing company will tell you, if you call them, that you can be way ahead by going with the editions and you will make a lot of money at turn in. I’ve made $6k - $15,000 on trading in my leases in the last month. Now if you apply that to your payments, like $15,000 divided by 36 months. You pay way way less for the special editions. So your doing it wrong if your driving base models to save money. Your paying more and rolling your windows up by hand. Lol!

In my quick autotrader search there are no fords under $41k and it jumps to the mid 50’s quickly.
Click to expand...

Please, tell me more about the vehicle industry :flipoff2:

Although I'm curious how you 'made' money on a lease. There's advantages to lease vs buy in certain scenarios, but I cant recall someone ever walking away with money from turning in a lease.
 
Poke said:
You are not factoring in almost no maintenance, you don’t pay taxes on trade in dollars, they are under full warranty the entire time you own them, you gain the comfort of loaded cars/features and fords don’t hold their value for shit. Used car maintenance and repairs can cost more than having a payment. A lot of financial advisers tell people to get comfortable with a payment young, you’ll have one till your retired, but I’m sure you knew that. So if you put blinders on to 90% of the aspects of owning a vehicle, then you have a point. Otherwise....
Click to expand...
For anyone with a new-ish vehicle 90% of owning a vehicle is the payments you moron. :lmao::lmao::lmao::lmao:

You're delusional if you think that literally every brand doesn't have almost no maintenance in the first 100k. You can make up some fanboy bullshit about how Toyota has a .01% defect rate and GM has a .02% defect rate but regardless of what the numbers are the defect rates are so low that they do not justify the differences in price up front.

It's pretty clear that you know you're wrong since you're comparing worst case used car ownership with best case new car ownership.

If a 15yo Saturn or Chrysler was such a financial raw deal you wouldn't see so many of them on the road. You can tell yourself some gated community upper middle class lies about how the poor pay more and you're doing it right but let's be real here, 99% of the time the poor are paying a hell of a lot less than the morons who want to keep up with the Joneses. They're just making tradeoffs that the latter group considers unacceptable. Like buying a $1k '99 Mercury Sable, putting a $2k trans in it right off the bat and then rocking out for less than your down payment.

The reality is that even with maintenance costs a brand new base trim Altima is gonna cost you less over 100k, probably 200k as well, than a new Camry. Look at the difference in purchase price. You're insane if you think that either vehicle is gonna need close to that much maintenance in 100k. Same goes for the people playing musical shitboxes. Is it as nice? No. Is it cheaper, of-fucking course it is. Thousands of dollars saved up front (tens of thousands if you're gonna play musical shitboxes) pays for a hell of a lot of maintenance.

And all this is before you even consider how much a vehicle's owner impacts its cost of ownership.
 
Poke said:
You are not factoring in almost no maintenance, you don’t pay taxes on trade in dollars, they are under full warranty the entire time you own them, you gain the comfort of loaded cars/features and fords don’t hold their value for shit. Used car maintenance and repairs can cost more than having a payment. A lot of financial advisers tell people to get comfortable with a payment young, you’ll have one till your retired, but I’m sure you knew that. So if you put blinders on to 90% of the aspects of owning a vehicle, then you have a point. Otherwise....
Click to expand...
Any financial planner who recommends paying interest on a depreciating asset is not someone i'd probably want managing my accounts.

But, if it's a business lease/write off type of situation, then leases do have advantages.

But why spend $1 to save $.30?
 
TRINDU said:
Please, tell me more about the vehicle industry :flipoff2:

Although I'm curious how you 'made' money on a lease. There's advantages to lease vs buy in certain scenarios, but I cant recall someone ever walking away with money from turning in a lease.
Click to expand...

Buy high residual value vehicles on balloon payment leases. It's not a secret or hard to do. Very low payments on low mileage, trade them in after 18 months to 3 years and repeat. ignore the mileage limit and drive all you want. You end up paying very little, less than the cost of base models. $300-$420 dollar payments on $75,000 vehicles that are always under warranty. I have done it for a dozen years, I pay less than my buddies do for their base model trucks and cars.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Back Refresh