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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

Projectjunkie said:
Any. Im dumping my savings into building a house, all of it.


That said, I'm debt free, have assets i can liquidate and have really solid earning potential ahead of me, so there is little need for "6 months living expenses "

If you've got a mortgage and such, I'd back down to the 6mo-12mo or whatever you're comfortable with
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It seems that with lumber and building materials in general at an all time high right now (some at 600%+) that this would be a loosing strategy??? But I know several people doing just this as well. It's become a pissing contest to see who has more money to piss at lumber at the lumber yards if you want bulk. All of my house projects are on absolute hold due to the fact.

Everybody I know that's building a house are in a boat that they have no choice but to complete at this point. And pissing hard as they can. It makes it even more interesting for when the next bubble busts and so many people are 4x in on the going price.

But if it helps, I'm in the private residential development business and the bubble is not going to pop anytime soon for we are wide F'ing open. Guessing at least 2+ years out.
 
Captain Call said:
Be a shame if your stuff were to hit a big bump and fall off.
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i do know a lot of bumps that would do it too. ive thought about hitting them before. ive put 125k on this truck and knock on wood havent had any problems. its my daily driver and i have come to believe not screwing with your daily truck is the way to go. if it starts getting real bad then i may hit those bumps at high speed
 
Texas97 said:
i do know a lot of bumps that would do it too. ive thought about hitting them before. ive put 125k on this truck and knock on wood havent had any problems. its my daily driver and i have come to believe not screwing with your daily truck is the way to go. if it starts getting real bad then i may hit those bumps at high speed
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I'm in the same boat. Except mine is new with 23k. When we were moving I put 17k in 3 weeks and ran across the shortage a few times. Almost hit some nasty bumps but swerved at the last second. Not sure I will have the same reaction time as I get older though. :lmao:
 
Here4memes said:
It seems that with lumber and building materials in general at an all time high right now (some at 600%+) that this would be a loosing strategy??? But I know several people doing just this as well. It's become a pissing contest to see who has more money to piss at lumber at the lumber yards if you want bulk. All of my house projects are on absolute hold due to the fact.

Everybody I know that's building a house are in a boat that they have no choice but to complete at this point. And pissing hard as they can. It makes it even more interesting for when the next bubble busts and so many people are 4x in on the going price.

But if it helps, I'm in the private residential development business and the bubble is not going to pop anytime soon for we are wide F'ing open. Guessing at least 2+ years out.
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Im going cinder block on slab, block is already bought, roughly 30yds concrete needed, it's gone from 135 to 155 in 6mo

I bought a bunk of OSB at like $22ea, just need to keep it dry

I'm very concerned that not only will I be priced out forever, my kids will be as well.

Once this one is done, I'm going to try and build 2 more, if I can hand off a SFR to each of my kids I'll rest easy

Simple 3bd 2ba 2 car garage, nothing fancy


I've always been interested in fiat currencies, their collapse, Weimar Germany, stock market crash off 1929, etc

Thing is, on a 10 year chart, it's easy to see a big 10 year trend, but if you pull up the newspapers, it's only 4% change month over month, with people always saying it'll get better soon:homer:

I'm of the mindset, "he that panics first, panics best"
 
Here4memes said:
It seems that with lumber and building materials in general at an all time high right now (some at 600%+) that this would be a loosing strategy??? But I know several people doing just this as well. It's become a pissing contest to see who has more money to piss at lumber at the lumber yards if you want bulk. All of my house projects are on absolute hold due to the fact.

Everybody I know that's building a house are in a boat that they have no choice but to complete at this point. And pissing hard as they can. It makes it even more interesting for when the next bubble busts and so many people are 4x in on the going price.

But if it helps, I'm in the private residential development business and the bubble is not going to pop anytime soon for we are wide F'ing open. Guessing at least 2+ years out.
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What you're doing right now, may not withstand raising interest rates and a massive stock market correction. I'd love for it to be 2 years from now, but it's looking like it might be 9 months.

Fyi, I don't know anything about anything so grain of salt and what's not
 
Texas97 said:
What you're doing right now, may not withstand raising interest rates and a massive stock market correction. I'd love for it to be 2 years from now, but it's looking like it might be 9 months.

Fyi, I don't know anything about anything so grain of salt and what's not
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If it's anything like the last one??? Private residential developers are the first to feel it. Then they only "scale back" and ride the wave til the end. Early in 2007 I knew so far ahead of time that I was able to file hardship and cash out my 401K almost a full year before we started laying off in '08. And instead of a subdivision committing to pumping out an average 300 lots at a time, it just scaled back to around 60-80. But it has to be so planned ahead by the developers because it usually takes 3-4 months at the least to get a subdivision scaled back and plans re-approved.

Every municipality is different but usually when a developer commits to 600 lots at a time (which is a large commitment and common right now), the fees and timelines are around 150-200k or more and they have about 3-4 years to sell and close out before more fees apply. But I'm in RDU area of NC which is full on boom mode right now that can't build nearly fast enough. I'd say we're good around here for at least a solid year here before any signs of anything.

Now taking into consideration of my hometown in TN, they only saw about a 10% scale back after the initial crash in '08 with smaller scale backs there-after. But much less population. So it's more of a regional thing according to growth and population as to when it hits and how hard. More less to say, Sullivan County TN is sucking up people from CA as fast as they can right now and that won't slow until it gets really bad. Their growth is something like 15% per year right now being one of the fastest growing counties. I'd imagine there's counties in FL that dwarf those numbers. So they may be last of the last to feel it.

So last go round it was a large ripple that started in centralized areas where people are moving away from. I'd expect developers in large cities in CA that are shrinking right now will have the best advice when the time comes.

But then again all that jabber could just be piss in the wind as far as I know about any next recession to come.:homer: We've only had one to go by so far. Who's to say it's a total repeat?
 
DannyK said:
www.cnbc.com

Inflation rises 7% over the past year, highest since 1982

The consumer price index for December 2021 was expected to increase 7% from a year ago, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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And since thats the official number im sure it is actually higher. Sweet!

I do not feel bad for a single liberal cuck who is getting fucke right now. They deserve it. I do feel bad for those who voted against this type of shit and are getting fucked none the less :flipoff:

This fucks the $40-75K singles and $65k-120k families the worst. Singles making more than that and families with big incomes shouldn't be feeling it too much unless their spending is out of control.
 
And another
IMG_5673.jpg
 
Clemson13 said:
And since thats the official number im sure it is actually higher. Sweet!

I do not feel bad for a single liberal cuck who is getting fucke right now. They deserve it. I do feel bad for those who voted against this type of shit and are getting fucked none the less :flipoff:

This fucks the $40-75K singles and $65k-120k families the worst. Singles making more than that and families with big incomes shouldn't be feeling it too much unless their spending is out of control.
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Who was the candidate fighting against endless fed QE in the last election cycle?
 
ya, my shop is never going to be built. :laughing:
 
4% here. No increase to health insurance rates which is nothing short of amazing.

However this all needs to pass a public vote.
 
We got a 5.9% COLA from SS this year, then they promptly raised the Medicare Rates to take most of it back!
 
I got 23% this year. Was a good year, finally getting paid well to do the work I do:laughing: Cant wait for inflation over the next two years to eat it all away. I dread the cost to build a house in this market...
 
Mikel said:
They were competing on who was going to give the most free money. Here is my shocked face when inflation skyrocketed :laughing:

Republicans and their spending are 100% complicit in this.
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sorry, there is nothing worse in this country than a democrat with the check book. they destroy everything they touch the last 30 years.
 
gunracer1 said:
sorry, there is nothing worse in this country than a democrat with the check book. they destroy everything they touch the last 30 years.
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ehhhhh, repubs aren't the best with the checkbook either. destroying everything they touch is definitely a demo thing though.
 
Alpine4x4 said:
I got 23% this year. Was a good year, finally getting paid well to do the work I do:laughing: Cant wait for inflation over the next two years to eat it all away. I dread the cost to build a house in this market...
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hey me too!:flipoff:
 
rockota said:
what's a raise?
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last year the company barely broke even, which means there was nothing in there to take home at the end.

so my income was half in 2021 than it was the year before. it has been a real kick in the nuts, especially because mid-4th quarter it looked like things were going to be great.
 
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