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How hard is inflation going to hit, or has hit?

grumpy356 said:
with the current Fed... let's be honest...
Paint me a picture based in reality where the interest rates don't ever drop??

Hell... they cut them, just to cut them these days. Fed cuts interest rates a half point in landmark policy shift
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Half the game of making our fake currency work is keeping inflation under control via interest rates and they haven't really done that in close to 20 years outside of the enormous jump they took recently. Other than minor cuts here or there near elections I wouldn't expect rates to be anywhere near pre-2022 levels any time soon.
 
Levigarrett76 said:
themortgageblog.wordpress.com

Comparing Boomer vs Millennial First Home Markets

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal makes an interesting comparison of the housing markets faced by the Baby Boomer generation in the 1980s vs the Millennial generation of today. Last…
themortgageblog.wordpress.com themortgageblog.wordpress.com


this should stir up some shit
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What he didn't address was that FTB's used to buy small houses with lineoleum counter tops and laundry in the one car garage. Now everyone thinks they need a chefs kitchen with quartz countertops, hardwood floors, and a 4+3. A big reason houses are more expensive is that they're more expensive in features and construction costs. Here at least it's at a tipping point, so multifamily is going up all over the place.
 
Roc Doc said:
What he didn't address was that FTB's used to buy small houses with lineoleum counter tops and laundry in the one car garage. Now everyone thinks they need a chefs kitchen with quartz countertops, hardwood floors, and a 4+3. A big reason houses are more expensive is that they're more expensive in features and construction costs. Here at least it's at a tipping point, so multifamily is going up all over the place.
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Bingo. In addition to money/ banking/ finance issues, younger buyers want the house their parents bought in their 40s after grinding and trading up once or twice. Very few would consider buying the worst house on a nice street
 
posford said:
Found out recently these cash buyers are using their 401k to borrow from to do so, then scramble to get a mortgage after the closing to get the 401k paid back in the allotted time. Think the number was 3 months?
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There's a max on a loan against your 401k loan. It's like $50k or $100k. Not enough to buy a house.

Projectjunkie said:
Kinda smart


I've worked with a handful of guys who had enough in their 401k to buy or pay off a house, but didn't or wouldn't. Sometimes still paying higher interest, and or PMI.
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Taxes and early withdrawal penalty usually make that shit not worth it if you crunch the numbers.
 
Projectjunkie said:
Bingo. In addition to money/ banking/ finance issues, younger buyers want the house their parents bought in their 40s after grinding and trading up once or twice. Very few would consider buying the worst house on a nice street
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A buddy is getting forced into moving to San Luis Obispo, as his wife has her family there. The housing costs are so stupid high there, they're going to have to buy a fixer, and he'll be doing the work as much as possible. Fuck that, I'm done working on homes, I just want to live there.
 
Projectjunkie said:
Bingo. In addition to money/ banking/ finance issues, younger buyers want the house their parents bought in their 40s after grinding and trading up once or twice. Very few would consider buying the worst house on a nice street
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Real fucking rich coming from the guy who's retirement plan is to cash buy a bunch of would be starter homes and slumlord them.

You're why there's nothing on the market and Motorchage is looking at shit that the flipper equivalent of you stuffed a bunch of granite into.
 
1725496670260.png
 
Roc Doc said:
What he didn't address was that FTB's used to buy small houses with lineoleum counter tops and laundry in the one car garage. Now everyone thinks they need a chefs kitchen with quartz countertops, hardwood floors, and a 4+3. A big reason houses are more expensive is that they're more expensive in features and construction costs. Here at least it's at a tipping point, so multifamily is going up all over the place.
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Its a mix of that and Code and zoning requirements make it harder and more expensive to build new. All the 0.5/1 acre 1000 sqft houses got bought up and demolished to make room for new $350k duplexes.

Roc Doc said:
1725496670260.png
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:lmao::lmao:
 
Roc Doc said:
What he didn't address was that FTB's used to buy small houses with lineoleum counter tops and laundry in the one car garage. Now everyone thinks they need a chefs kitchen with quartz countertops, hardwood floors, and a 4+3. A big reason houses are more expensive is that they're more expensive in features and construction costs. Here at least it's at a tipping point, so multifamily is going up all over the place.
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The finishes in the house don't add up to the 6 figure differences we're talking about. Go in most new tract homes and they don't have quartz countertops or real hardwood floors. Builder grade quartz isn't that expensive either. Yeah, the houses have definitely gotten bigger but that has more to do with the fact that land prices have risen so much than anything else. The cost to build a 2 bedroom rancher with 1.5 baths isn't much different than a 4+3, especially if that 4+3 is two stories.

Ironically though, the finishes are a large part of why multifamily apartments cost so much these days. They're designed around what women want which is why a 450 sq ft shoebox studio costs $2k+ now. That quartz upgrade in a single house might cost an extra $2000, no big deal. $2000 x 200 apartments adds up fast. So does that extra vent for AC in the walk in closet, and the upgraded shelving, nicer door hardware, premium pain on the cabinets, etc, etc. Little shit adds up real fast in MF.

arse_sidewards said:
You're why there's nothing on the market and Motorcharge is looking at shit that the flipper equivalent of you stuffed a bunch of granite into.
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Yeah, how could you do this to me. :mad3: :laughing:
 
Projectjunkie said:
Bingo. In addition to money/ banking/ finance issues, younger buyers want the house their parents bought in their 40s after grinding and trading up once or twice. Very few would consider buying the worst house on a nice street
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Funny because everyone I know my age that wants to buy a house would much rather buy an older house with character and redo things themselves than buy the mcmansion their boomer parents live in.
 
bad zuki said:
Its a mix of that and Code and zoning requirements make it harder and more expensive to build new. All the 0.5/1 acre 1000 sqft houses got bought up and demolished to make room for new $350k duplexes.


:lmao::lmao:
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Where I'm at the minimum lot size is 1 acre, and there are lots of 5 acre lots with a big house, riding arena, or sand volleyball court, that type of thing, and codes don't allow you to sub-divide, so it keeps the density down, and there are very few vacant lots any more, so the people density is never going to get crazy like those 6 houses to an acre developments or multi-fam. If they ever change the zoning here, hopefully its long after we're gone.
 
Roc Doc said:
Where I'm at the minimum lot size is 1 acre, and there are lots of 5 acre lots with a big house, riding arena, or sand volleyball court, that type of thing, and codes don't allow you to sub-divide, so it keeps the density down, and there are very few vacant lots any more, so the people density is never going to get crazy like those 6 houses to an acre developments or multi-fam. If they ever change the zoning here, hopefully its long after we're gone.
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County I used to live in is like that. It used to be an acre minimum but they had too many subdivisions pop up and piss off the locals so they changed it to a 5 acre minimum and I believe it's now a 10 acre with exceptions for subdividing for family. The county board and locals want to keep the county rural instead of being completely over populated like the neighboring counties.

Meanwhile the next county over rubber stamps every subdivision plan that gets submitted to them, consequences be damned. All the schools are going to shit and it takes fucking forever to get anywhere because the roads can't handle the traffic even with 8 lane main roads.
 
Motorcharge said:
The finishes in the house don't add up to the 6 figure differences we're talking about. Go in most new tract homes and they don't have quartz countertops or real hardwood floors. Builder grade quartz isn't that expensive either. Yeah, the houses have definitely gotten bigger but that has more to do with the fact that land prices have risen so much than anything else. The cost to build a 2 bedroom rancher with 1.5 baths isn't much different than a 4+3, especially if that 4+3 is two stories.

Ironically though, the finishes are a large part of why multifamily apartments cost so much these days. They're designed around what women want which is why a 450 sq ft shoebox studio costs $2k+ now. That quartz upgrade in a single house might cost an extra $2000, no big deal. $2000 x 200 apartments adds up fast. So does that extra vent for AC in the walk in closet, and the upgraded shelving, nicer door hardware, premium pain on the cabinets, etc, etc. Little shit adds up real fast in MF.


Yeah, how could you do this to me. :mad3: :laughing:
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You're in the trades and I'm not so I'll defer to your experience, but I know when I bought my first house they had a list of options as long as your leg, and as I recall most of the big options were hell expensive. I opted for upgraded lighting in the bathrooms, cause I hate those chrome bars with the exposed light bulbs, pre-wire for surround sound, interior wall insulation and that was about it. They included the front yard landscaping and I said anything is fine except that fucking red dog food rock, and sure enough I'm driving by near end of construction, and there's that red dog food all over the front with a couple scragly trees. They offered me a garage door opener as compensation, and I said "I have two garage doors", so I got two free hundred dollar openers, yay.
 
Motorcharge said:
County I used to live in is like that. It used to be an acre minimum but they had too many subdivisions pop up and piss off the locals so they changed it to a 5 acre minimum and I believe it's now a 10 acre with exceptions for subdividing for family. The county board and locals want to keep the county rural instead of being completely over populated like the neighboring counties.
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So they'll just become a bedroom community for rich assholes who can afford it then. Which is probably what the government dicks want anyway since less money spent on services for poor people means more for boondoggle projects they can give to their buddies.
 
Roc Doc said:
Where I'm at the minimum lot size is 1 acre, and there are lots of 5 acre lots with a big house, riding arena, or sand volleyball court, that type of thing, and codes don't allow you to sub-divide, so it keeps the density down, and there are very few vacant lots any more, so the people density is never going to get crazy like those 6 houses to an acre developments or multi-fam. If they ever change the zoning here, hopefully its long after we're gone.
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Its not a state to state, but county to county difference and who is elected to the zoning board. We went from a very strict county to not in one employee change. I can't wait for the farm land around me to be turned into fulfillment centers to supply people with their next day dildos and such. :mad3: They put a huge $1,000,000+ house subdivision in and put row houses in across the street 4 years later. I just want space for a shop with a view.

The land around me isn't worth much, but It's going to be gone sooner than later. I wish I would have bought the neighboring house to mine for $150k in 2018. Now it's worth $250k!!! It's 800 sqft on an acre. Rent was $700 a month in 2018. That place would rent for $1500 now. :laughing:.
 
Roc Doc said:
You're in the trades and I'm not so I'll defer to your experience, but I know when I bought my first house they had a list of options as long as your leg, and as I recall most of the big options were hell expensive. I opted for upgraded lighting in the bathrooms, cause I hate those chrome bars with the exposed light bulbs, pre-wire for surround sound, interior wall insulation and that was about it. They included the front yard landscaping and I said anything is fine except that fucking red dog food rock, and sure enough I'm driving by near end of construction, and there's that red dog food all over the front with a couple scragly trees. They offered me a garage door opener as compensation, and I said "I have two garage doors", so I got two free hundred dollar openers, yay.
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The mark ups some of the tract home builders put on shit is outrageous, especially the ones masquerading as "custom home" builders. The actual cost for most upgrades isn't much and if you know what you're talking about you can generally push for some of them for well under what the builders want to sell for.

Like a buddy of mine had a McMansion built in Florida a couple years ago. Got him to find out who the cabinet brand they use is, got him info on their other brands that are nicer and had him push for those at the same cost. Builder caved because they're already selling you the cheap shitty cabinets for 3-4x what they actually cost. Average kitchen my last company sold was probably around $8k in cabinets, for the home buyer their kitchen account for something insane like $35-40k.

Other than things that are a pain or expensive to replace, you're better off not taking upgrades and just upgrading yourself later. Especially on things like paint, flooring, etc. Solid core doors is another easy one to negotiate, the actual cost difference for a SFH is maybe $1000.00 if we're talking standard 6/8 height doors and it costs the builder nothing to install those vs hollow core.

arse_sidewards said:
So they'll just become a bedroom community for rich assholes who can afford it then. Which is probably what the government dicks want anyway since less money spent on services for poor people means more for boondoggle projects they can give to their buddies.
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Unintentionally, yeah to an extent. The county keeps taxes low and doesn't really spend money beyond basic infrastructure and the schools. It's the type of place where everyone knows everyone and the county board members would get replaced pretty damn quick if they didn't do what they were elected to do.
 
Motorcharge said:
The mark ups some of the tract home builders put on shit is outrageous, especially the ones masquerading as "custom home" builders. The actual cost for most upgrades isn't much and if you know what you're talking about you can generally push for some of them for well under what the builders want to sell for.

Like a buddy of mine had a McMansion built in Florida a couple years ago. Got him to find out who the cabinet brand they use is, got him info on their other brands that are nicer and had him push for those at the same cost. Builder caved because they're already selling you the cheap shitty cabinets for 3-4x what they actually cost. Average kitchen my last company sold was probably around $8k in cabinets, for the home buyer their kitchen account for something insane like $35-40k.

Other than things that are a pain or expensive to replace, you're better off not taking upgrades and just upgrading yourself later. Especially on things like paint, flooring, etc. Solid core doors is another easy one to negotiate, the actual cost difference for a SFH is maybe $1000.00 if we're talking standard 6/8 height doors and it costs the builder nothing to install those vs hollow core.


Unintentionally, yeah to an extent. The county keeps taxes low and doesn't really spend money beyond basic infrastructure and the schools. It's the type of place where everyone knows everyone and the county board members would get replaced pretty damn quick if they didn't do what they were elected to do.
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This was US Homes in the late 90's and they had a "Design Center", with samples of all the available options, tile, counter tops, lighting etc.. I knew the markup was really high, but it was convenient to just add a couple things. House came with pre-wiring for ceiling fans in every room, extra outlets, and phone jacks in every room, (:laughing:). Also included a soft water loop, raised panel solid doors, an outlet under the eaves (great for Xmas lights). 2460 4+2 with a 3 car garage, $151k, Zillow has it at $525k now, it was a decent house but still just a tract home.
 
Motorcharge said:
County I used to live in is like that. It used to be an acre minimum but they had too many subdivisions pop up and piss off the locals so they changed it to a 5 acre minimum and I believe it's now a 10 acre with exceptions for subdividing for family. The county board and locals want to keep the county rural instead of being completely over populated like the neighboring counties.

Meanwhile the next county over rubber stamps every subdivision plan that gets submitted to them, consequences be damned. All the schools are going to shit and it takes fucking forever to get anywhere because the roads can't handle the traffic even with 8 lane main roads.
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You live where i live?:lmao:
 
Motorcharge said:
Funny because everyone I know my age that wants to buy a house would much rather buy an older house with character and redo things themselves than buy the mcmansion their boomer parents live in.
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1) you probably are similar to most here, not "normies" and probably run with other similar not normies, who have similar alt views and wants

Alternate ending. You said they want x not they did buy...

2) To quote realtors "buyers are liars" They fold and take the easy path. Because they wuss out, pressure from the wife, or unable to secure lending. And wind up in another 2024 builder grade POS up to their ears in debt
 
IMHO a big part of this housing "crisis" is the unrealistic expectation of the youngers today. They are entitled to own a home, the teachers, lefties, socialists and others have told them so. I hear it all the time, I should be able to have my own apartment ( usually spoken by some green haired part time food service worker ) Housing is a human right they love to chant along with greedy, greedy, greedy towards anyone who owns rentals or their own home. There are actually people out there that think there should be laws regarding what kind of profit you can make when you sell.:shaking:

Now when I suggest to them that maybe if they really wanted a place to call their own they could improve themselves and find better employment, maybe take on a second job or gasp even get a room mate. This gets me called names and screamed at, funny thing is that it's the way a whole lot of us started our lives, tell them that and they call you a liar.

I've said it before many times. Not everyone is going to own a home, it's never happened in world history and it ain't gonna happen now. People have rented since the dawn of time and that's just the way it is. If someone wants a house, car, or whatever bad enough then they will find a way to work and make it happen.
 
This is only one case, but a good example-

In 2002 I bought a nice middle class older house in a decent neighborhood here, 1900ft 4/2/2.

I bought the house @ 14 months gross salary.

Sold it in 2015, that person sold in 2022.

So 20 years later, same house and same job for me, the house sold for around 36 months my gross salary. It wasn't remodeled nor had any real money been spent on updating since 2002 other than floors and interior paint and other cheap fixer upper shit like scraping popcorn.
 
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