What's new

GM promises the end of their gasoline vehicles in 20 years

You're not paying attention, at all. The energy density issue isn't even close to that simple. Raw density is a lot less than gasoline, but the vastly higher efficiency of battery/inverter/motor vs an ICE brings batteries much closer to parity than you imply. The real issues are range, charge time, and charger availability, and those issues are evaporating rapidly. Comparing an electric car to a moped only demonstrates how out of touch your thinking is. Go take a look at the specs on the latest Tesla Model S refresh. That "moped" would smoke an actual GSXR.

Eco issues with battery manufacturing is definately a problem. Which is also improving rapidly.

What is your efficiency numbers to charge those batteries? Isn’t that really where your energy is coming from....

35% availability of wind or solar and that would be on the high side.
 
Did you guys complain when the last buggy was being built also?

love me the sound of a nice engine, but would be a cool experience to walk through a city with no sounds. Those living next to freeways should be loving this...from a noise perspective.
 
love me the sound of a nice engine, but would be a cool experience to walk through a city with no sounds. Those living next to freeways should be loving this...from a noise perspective.

What fantasy land do you live in? Thinking the only noise pollution in a city is from an engine running. :laughing:
 
I *think* solar panels reflect more light than the general landscape. They're only about 20% efficient. Quite a bit of the remainder of the light is reflected.

It's basically solved at this point. Between the state of the art in batteries (which is improving rapidly), fast charging, and expanding charge networks, range is mostly a non-issue going forward. Personally I could do most of the driving I do now without ever having to charge away from home. And I love my road trips A LOT.

Batteries are not improving rapidly. You suffer from the Moore's Law Fallacy. Most technology is not exponential, it is linear. As is Material Science, it's linear. Computing power is getting linear.

If batteries are improving so rapidly, then why does the 23-year-old Toyota Prius have the same capabilities as 23 years ago? It's because batteries have not improved. Elon Musk built an entire factory to produce LiIon 18650s. There is no 'room for improvement' built into Teslas. ALL of the 'improvement' is in UX and other electronics, mostly making people believe that their Tesla is at a lower charge than it is, so that when they come out and it's 10F+ colder in the morning, they don't see the dismal reality: Batteries simply give out. All of them, without exception, and they always will.


In what way can someone do what they currently do in a car, with mass transit? That's just laughable on its face.

You're not paying attention, at all. The energy density issue isn't even close to that simple. Raw density is a lot less than gasoline, but the vastly higher efficiency of battery/inverter/motor vs an ICE brings batteries much closer to parity than you imply. The real issues are range, charge time, and charger availability, and those issues are evaporating rapidly. Comparing an electric car to a moped only demonstrates how out of touch your thinking is. Go take a look at the specs on the latest Tesla Model S refresh. That "moped" would smoke an actual GSXR.

Eco issues with battery manufacturing is definately a problem. Which is also improving rapidly.

The performance of electrically powered things was never in doubt. Electrically powered battleships are over a century old. The most powerful locomotives in the world are electric, but all of the ones that cross the Continental Divide are diesel. That's because diesel has around 110,000 BTU of thermal energy per gallon, whether it's 25,000 feet and -25F, or sea level at seventy degrees. And barring invasion by microbes, diesel will always have that 110k. You can leave a diesel locomotive unattended on a siderail for a long time, and go out with a donkey and start it up and immediately begin pulling freight. No battery powered anything will ever, ever be able to do that. Batteries require constant conditioning, which is a UX issue on Teslas and goes on behind the scenes.

Battery manufacturing produces waste, what is 'improving' is accountability in how that waste is handled. How is battery manufacturing becoming less wasteful? They improved the process to eliminate the need to leach lithium out of ore, then process it into battery filling, then apply it to a battery? Are they using biodegradeable reagents or something?

No, they are not. Please prove me wrong. The chemical process to put battery shit into batteries is the same today as it was 50 years ago.

Priuses haven't improved in 23 years because batteries have not (markedly) improved in 23 years.

Technological progress is mostly linear except for some brief interludes like the actual Industrial Revolution and Moore's Law. Just about everybody today has to think counterintuitively (I do) to understand the rate of tech progress.

Tesla started in 2003 and there is no appreciable difference between the original Tesla battery and the newest ones shipping.

Miraculous technological progress (!!!!!!) is always just around the corner.... just a few more years and you won't have to babysit your schnazzy bauble while strenuously claiming to scientifically-literate people that it's JUST ABOUT to get great!

Batteries have not improved and they are not improving, and the World's Smartest and Greediest Men bet billions of dollars on building a decades-service factory based on that premise. The owner of the company that keeps telling you your Tesla will just right quick turn into a non-umbilical cord albatross think that. They put their money there. On the very solid idea that batteries are not improving and will not.

Do you understand that? The Gigafactory proves that not even Elon Musk thinks batteries are going anywhere. /discussion
 
Batteries are not improving rapidly. You suffer from the Moore's Law Fallacy. Most technology is not exponential, it is linear. As is Material Science, it's linear. Computing power is getting linear.

If batteries are improving so rapidly, then why does the 23-year-old Toyota Prius have the same capabilities as 23 years ago? It's because batteries have not improved. Elon Musk built an entire factory to produce LiIon 18650s. There is no 'room for improvement' built into Teslas. ALL of the 'improvement' is in UX and other electronics, mostly making people believe that their Tesla is at a lower charge than it is, so that when they come out and it's 10F+ colder in the morning, they don't see the dismal reality: Batteries simply give out. All of them, without exception, and they always will.




The performance of electrically powered things was never in doubt. Electrically powered battleships are over a century old. The most powerful locomotives in the world are electric, but all of the ones that cross the Continental Divide are diesel. That's because diesel has around 110,000 BTU of thermal energy per gallon, whether it's 25,000 feet and -25F, or sea level at seventy degrees. And barring invasion by microbes, diesel will always have that 110k. You can leave a diesel locomotive unattended on a siderail for a long time, and go out with a donkey and start it up and immediately begin pulling freight. No battery powered anything will ever, ever be able to do that. Batteries require constant conditioning, which is a UX issue on Teslas and goes on behind the scenes.

Battery manufacturing produces waste, what is 'improving' is accountability in how that waste is handled. How is battery manufacturing becoming less wasteful? They improved the process to eliminate the need to leach lithium out of ore, then process it into battery filling, then apply it to a battery? Are they using biodegradeable reagents or something?

No, they are not. Please prove me wrong. The chemical process to put battery shit into batteries is the same today as it was 50 years ago.

Priuses haven't improved in 23 years because batteries have not (markedly) improved in 23 years.

Technological progress is mostly linear except for some brief interludes like the actual Industrial Revolution and Moore's Law. Just about everybody today has to think counterintuitively (I do) to understand the rate of tech progress.

Tesla started in 2003 and there is no appreciable difference between the original Tesla battery and the newest ones shipping.

Miraculous technological progress (!!!!!!) is always just around the corner.... just a few more years and you won't have to babysit your schnazzy bauble while strenuously claiming to scientifically-literate people that it's JUST ABOUT to get great!

Batteries have not improved and they are not improving, and the World's Smartest and Greediest Men bet billions of dollars on building a decades-service factory based on that premise. The owner of the company that keeps telling you your Tesla will just right quick turn into a non-umbilical cord albatross think that. They put their money there. On the very solid idea that batteries are not improving and will not.

Do you understand that? The Gigafactory proves that not even Elon Musk thinks batteries are going anywhere. /discussion

Yet, I'm seeing Tesla, Volts, European E cars, even the Prius is looking sexy, EVERY FUCKING WHERE! dipshit
 
Yet, I'm seeing Tesla, Volts, European E cars, even the Prius is looking sexy, EVERY FUCKING WHERE! dipshit

Except he's correct. That doesn't mean people aren't buying electric cars and hybrids. But the battery tech has changed/improved very little. Tweaks in the chemistry has made them work a little better in the cold, etc, but capacity is not going up. They find more nooks and crannies to jam cells into to increase range, but that's it. Tesla finally turned a profit in 2020 on their expensive golf carts. And they wouldn't have done that without emissions credits from the US gov't. Data here.
 
Yet, I'm seeing Tesla, Volts, European E cars, even the Prius is looking sexy, EVERY FUCKING WHERE! dipshit

You're seeing the upper middle class virtue signaling. All those same idiots have Tacomas in the driveway for when they need to buy one bag of concrete and it makes them feel handy. If it were the 1990s they would all have minivans to show off what good parents they are.

Current electric cars make decent specialty commuters if you have a short commute. None of those people have gone full EV. They all have at least a gas sedan, probably a crossover or SUV in the household. I know a guy who has a 5mi commute and he peels tires in a spark EV the whole way. It works great for him. He also owns a minivan.
 
The least expensive Tesla and GM (cough) vehicles have a range of over 260 miles, easily. And they have no more than 5 years of tech into them. You will be, you have been left in the dust. Japan pre-empted California in requiring all electric vehicles earlier this year. Where have you been ?

260 miles when new. A 5 year old battery won’t do that.

it also won’t get you far here in Texas.

I don’t care about Japan.

like I said remove subsidies and see what happens. Force companies to be competitive and sell a product people want not one they are forced to buy.
 
260 miles when new. A 5 year old battery won’t do that.

it also won’t get you far here in Texas.

I don’t care about Japan.

like I said remove subsidies and see what happens. Force companies to be competitive and sell a product people want not one they are forced to buy.

I know and agree with you. But there are tens of thousands of 5 yo Tesla batteries that are at least 85% . The new vehicle battery warranty is 70% over 8 years or 150,000 miles. The first EV not made in China that sells for under $25 and my family is investing in one. Just because no more stupid shit like complex expensive engines, oil, fuel, and transmission. But the EV are here and they work. We are not even 5 years in with Tesla. Saying they do not is not in agreement with the rest of your rational assessment of the universe. And fuck Texas :flipoff2::flipoff2::flipoff2:

Chill mister or we will send another 50,000 liberals there to relocate, spawn and vote. And drive EVs :laughing:

The phenomena of Tesla Motors is really quite amazing. The new plant near Reno Nevada could never have even been imagined by the sloths at GM. all they will do is outsource every last job until the UAW is finished. Maybe the workers there can kill the union and GM management and run the company for the benefit of the consumer and employees instead of the shareholder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada
 
Did you guys complain when the last buggy was being built also?

love me the sound of a nice engine, but would be a cool experience to walk through a city with no sounds. Those living next to freeways should be loving this...from a noise perspective.

The only noise you hear from the freeway is the tires. You don't hear the engine. :lmao: I live 1.5 miles from the interstate where the speed limit is 75. I don't usually hear traffic but when the wind blows just right or a semi has a flat tire I can hear the howl/thump.
 
260 miles when new. A 5 year old battery won’t do that.

Or when it's cold, or hot. Or with the A/C on , the heater on, the headlights on, going uphill, going >80mph, and on and on.....
 
Go back 5 years and they said they would have a bunch of E cars by 2021
 
Batteries are not improving rapidly. You suffer from the Moore's Law Fallacy. Most technology is not exponential, it is linear. As is Material Science, it's linear. Computing power is getting linear.

If batteries are improving so rapidly, then why does the 23-year-old Toyota Prius have the same capabilities as 23 years ago? It's because batteries have not improved. Elon Musk built an entire factory to produce LiIon 18650s. There is no 'room for improvement' built into Teslas. ALL of the 'improvement' is in UX and other electronics, mostly making people believe that their Tesla is at a lower charge than it is, so that when they come out and it's 10F+ colder in the morning, they don't see the dismal reality: Batteries simply give out. All of them, without exception, and they always will.




The performance of electrically powered things was never in doubt. Electrically powered battleships are over a century old. The most powerful locomotives in the world are electric, but all of the ones that cross the Continental Divide are diesel. That's because diesel has around 110,000 BTU of thermal energy per gallon, whether it's 25,000 feet and -25F, or sea level at seventy degrees. And barring invasion by microbes, diesel will always have that 110k. You can leave a diesel locomotive unattended on a siderail for a long time, and go out with a donkey and start it up and immediately begin pulling freight. No battery powered anything will ever, ever be able to do that. Batteries require constant conditioning, which is a UX issue on Teslas and goes on behind the scenes.

Battery manufacturing produces waste, what is 'improving' is accountability in how that waste is handled. How is battery manufacturing becoming less wasteful? They improved the process to eliminate the need to leach lithium out of ore, then process it into battery filling, then apply it to a battery? Are they using biodegradeable reagents or something?

No, they are not. Please prove me wrong. The chemical process to put battery shit into batteries is the same today as it was 50 years ago.

Priuses haven't improved in 23 years because batteries have not (markedly) improved in 23 years.

Technological progress is mostly linear except for some brief interludes like the actual Industrial Revolution and Moore's Law. Just about everybody today has to think counterintuitively (I do) to understand the rate of tech progress.

Tesla started in 2003 and there is no appreciable difference between the original Tesla battery and the newest ones shipping.

Miraculous technological progress (!!!!!!) is always just around the corner.... just a few more years and you won't have to babysit your schnazzy bauble while strenuously claiming to scientifically-literate people that it's JUST ABOUT to get great!

Batteries have not improved and they are not improving, and the World's Smartest and Greediest Men bet billions of dollars on building a decades-service factory based on that premise. The owner of the company that keeps telling you your Tesla will just right quick turn into a non-umbilical cord albatross think that. They put their money there. On the very solid idea that batteries are not improving and will not.

Do you understand that? The Gigafactory proves that not even Elon Musk thinks batteries are going anywhere. /discussion

I think you really like thinking you are smart. I have rarely seen so much error and ego in a single post here, and that is saying a lot. Maybe you need to go to the Tesla Factory or the Giga plant all stupid drunk and shout at them instead of the 18 yo college dorm co-eds.
 
Or when it's cold, or hot. Or with the A/C on , the heater on, the headlights on, going uphill, going >80mph, and on and on.....
Or “sports mode” . It’s my understanding that some models have performance mode, and it sucks the battery dry in short order.
 
Yet, I'm seeing Tesla, Volts, European E cars, even the Prius is looking sexy, EVERY FUCKING WHERE! dipshit

Not sure where "EVERY FUCKING WHERE" is, unless that's some town in California (or a San Fran neighborhood?). Because I travel a lot, and I don't see many EVs. Yeah, a decent amount of hybrids, but there is still a very small % of the cars on the road that are EV.
 
Or without a bailout in 10 years.
 
The only noise you hear from the freeway is the tires. You don't hear the engine. :lmao: I live 1.5 miles from the interstate where the speed limit is 75. I don't usually hear traffic but when the wind blows just right or a semi has a flat tire I can hear the howl/thump.
I agree and disagree.

Tire noise is absolutely there...


But the noise generated by objects tearing through air at high speeds is definitely loud.
 
I think you really like thinking you are smart. I have rarely seen so much error and ego in a single post here, and that is saying a lot. Maybe you need to go to the Tesla Factory or the Giga plant all stupid drunk and shout at them instead of the 18 yo college dorm co-eds.

Which parts do you dispute?
 
Batteries are not improving rapidly. You suffer from the Moore's Law Fallacy. Most technology is not exponential, it is linear. As is Material Science, it's linear. Computing power is getting linear.

If batteries are improving so rapidly, then why does the 23-year-old Toyota Prius have the same capabilities as 23 years ago? It's because batteries have not improved. Elon Musk built an entire factory to produce LiIon 18650s. There is no 'room for improvement' built into Teslas. ALL of the 'improvement' is in UX and other electronics, mostly making people believe that their Tesla is at a lower charge than it is, so that when they come out and it's 10F+ colder in the morning, they don't see the dismal reality: Batteries simply give out. All of them, without exception, and they always will.
Battery Managment tecnology is changing rapidly, I forget the current rates, but look how fast Tesla can "Superchange" a battery now.


You can leave a diesel locomotive unattended on a siderail for a long time, and go out with a donkey and start it up and immediately begin pulling freight. No battery powered anything will ever, ever be able to do that. Batteries require constant conditioning, which is a UX issue on Teslas and goes on behind the scenes.

True electrics on heavy rail use an electric 3rd rail :P
 
Battery Managment tecnology is changing rapidly, I forget the current rates, but look how fast Tesla can "Superchange" a battery now.



Yes I agree. That is what I'm calling UX for that is what it is. I know that the charging, use, and discharging on a Tesla are sophisticated and very, very good.

Which means that because batteries are not getting significantly better in the foreseeable future, that electrics cars are nearly as good as they can get. Tesla brought a strong product to market the first time, they didn't fuck around. They could have just done their Reddit social media but the did that plus build a really good car.

So the Tesla itself has only improved marginally. I see the published range numbers, IMO the Tesla early adopters were getting more range than that and were basically doing what Tesla does with software.

Which is the other thing. No other car except a Tesla is as tuned into gathering your information. Tesla undoubtedly made strides looking at not just average users and how they interacted with the car, but people who were beating Tesla.

Now Tesla has a research base, and that's where the improvement came from.

So yes, now computers are doing what humans can kind-of do, and it's automated. And the Teslas look good, plus they're fast, they have a neat interior, they're easy to use, etc.

But they have a battery and that's a shame because I would love to be proven wrong with an actual, By-God 1980s technological improvement or step change, not software maniuplation.

So EVs are Hyperbolic, not Exponential. They are curving in to a limit and the progress will slow with each year, until something gets done with batteries which isn't likely given the Laws of Physics and shit.

Edit: I should say Logarithmic, not Hyperbolic.

See, this is the Tech Fallacy, this what people think they're getting out of phones, Teslas, solar cells, etc:

exponential-curve.png
wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==


But what you are actually getting is this:

logarithmic-function.png
wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
 
Last edited:
Which parts do you dispute?

I love how he uses the Prius as some sort of example :laughing: The Prius (non-plugin-hybrid types) is not an EV. They use NiMH batteries. That's irrelevant to the EV market. The Prius was never meant to be a long range battery powered car. Even the plugin models have a range of a little over ten miles in battery-only operation.

He's somewhat right about Tesla batteries, but he seems to be entirely ignorant of the latest refresh using the new tabless cells, which are a significant improvement. He also seems to be entirely ignorant pf the wide range of chemistries that are being experimented with.

I also love how he completely ignores the change in cost. Batteries don't even have to improve to work for cars, they just need to get cheaper, and they definitely have done that.
 
Last edited:
Which parts do you dispute?

I will not waste that much time of life refuting that pile of BS. Tesla invented the EV, it's only been 4 or 5 years, and they have put GM into extinction mode by making the powers that be convinced that zero auto emissions are entirely feasible. Prius batteries are not the same use by design as Tesla's. If you read the link I posted, Tesla's lithium comes from Storey County Nevada. Old school HS economics for the Noobed one, Horizontal Consolidation. They are not dependent on LG of Korea or lithium from Wuhan. That is a remarkable testament to the man and his unheralded buy build America approach. All of this in 5 years. You dont need a children's graph or chart to recognize that. There is a HUGE new solar field being built right off of US 80 just past Fallon. You can see it. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt power for the new tech industry outside Reno. The new plant will be mostly powered by on site solar.

Wiki Giga factory -
When completed, the building will have the largest footprint in the world and second largest volume.[SUP][17][/SUP]

Wiki - Lithium - http://Tesla works with a mining company to extract lithium 200 miles (320 km) to the southeast, at Silver Peak in Esmeralda County. They intend to process the underground brine water industrially over hours rather than the traditional way of letting the water evaporate from ponds over a year.[47][91]

I do believe the market should decide and vehicle ownership and use should be by consumer choice.
 
The most powerful locomotives in the world are electric, but all of the ones that cross the Continental Divide are diesel. That's because diesel has around 110,000 BTU of thermal energy per gallon, whether it's 25,000 feet and -25F, or sea level at seventy degrees. And barring invasion by microbes, diesel will always have that 110k. You can leave a diesel locomotive unattended on a siderail for a long time, and go out with a donkey and start it up and immediately begin pulling freight.


i'm not going to claim to be a train expert here, but i've been around them a little. My wifes family has made their living repairing them.

They're all diesel/electric. No batteries.

The diesel engine makes electricity via a generator. The train then sends this to the electric motors on/in the axles.

dynamic braking has giant resistors and fans on the top of the train to basically waste that energy as heat. They also have mechanical brakes, but only use them in emergencies i believe.
 
  • Like
Reactions: IGT
Or when it's cold, or hot. Or with the A/C on , the heater on, the headlights on, going uphill, going >80mph, and on and on.....

I was watching Engineering Explained on YouTube where he was reviewing his Tesla on a road trip he did in the winter time. He cited a study that showed you lose 41% of your range when driving in the winter due to using your heater, lights, and battery loss. He calculated his own range loss over a 2500 mile road trip in the winter and found a 20ish% range loss but didn't say if he was running at night and using lights as well. 41% reduction is range is no joke. That said, I'd buy an electric if I could justify the cost of a new vehicle and it had a good range.
 
https://www.thedrive.com/news/28093/...dcore-measures

Quality assurance has also been a major sticking point, going so far as to see Musk sleeping on the assembly line floor personally inspecting cars as they leave the factory. Those extraordinary measures to ensure customer satisfaction, however, have largely not worked. Customers have experienced misaligned body panels, incomplete hardware, malfunctioning operating systems, and even some pieces of the car’s exterior not being properly attached. Service, as such, has become backlogged while parts are ordered and fixes for common lineup components devised; i.e. the company’s infotainment screen and its non-automotive-grade design.

...

The first volley was launched after a late-night tweet by the charismatic, yet often childish, Musk stating he was thinking about taking the company private and implying that he had secured funding to do so. Tesla’s stock price rose, as did the company’s valuation. Yet, the following morning’s news revealed Musk, in fact, had not secured anything. The SEC took issue and levied a charge against Musk and against Tesla that it was attempting to inflate the stock’s worth.
The SEC agreed to settle with Musk and Tesla for a cool $20 million each as well as a series of mandates both must follow in the future.

...

Tesla’s Musk caused further issues when in search of cost-cutting methods, he made the announcement that the company would be closing a number of Tesla stores around the world. This came as a shock to many in the company’s executive team and its board, as well as those employees directly affected by the mass closures, as none had been informed prior to Musk’s Twitter announcement. However, the storm of Elon’s making would be made far worse as the company was still responsible for over $1.6 billion in rent for the retail space and breach of contract. Musk later walked back his comments.

...

Inefficiencies and waste led to Musk admitting that the company’s Hail-Mary $35,000 Model 3—the car that Musk promised would start the electric revolution for average consumers—cost the company $38,000 just to produce. As such, in the last six months to a year, Tesla has hemorrhaged cash.

...

“It is important to bear in mind that we lost $700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $200 million per month. Investors nonetheless were supportive of our efforts and agreed to give us $2.4 billion (our net proceeds) to show that we can be financially sustainable. That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven.” -[Musk]
 
Last edited:
i'm not going to claim to be a train expert here, but i've been around them a little. My wifes family has made their living repairing them.

They're all diesel/electric. No batteries.

The diesel engine makes electricity via a generator. The train then sends this to the electric motors on/in the axles.

dynamic braking has giant resistors and fans on the top of the train to basically waste that energy as heat. They also have mechanical brakes, but only use them in emergencies i believe.

If only electric trains could run on this thing called electricity without using batteries . . . :rolleyes:

Might as well stir the pot and include diesel/mechanical and diesel/hydraulic locomotives in there too. Fuck it how about the gas turbines while I'm at it :laughing:
 
Top Back Refresh