Highly unlikely given the internal turmoil going on in China and likely economic collapse they're headed towards. Nevermind the amount of wealth the corporations built in Taiwan have to fight that. If China ever manages to get their way into control of Taiwan is will be long after the major players there have moved anything worth a shit overseas. Several execs have publicly stated they'd destroy the tech they have before they let mainland China get their hands on it.
Also that's not at all how the Chinese took over Hong Kong. They tried it and it blew up in their face spectacularly to the point the rest of the world was getting involved over the blatant human rights violations. Everyone just conveniently forgot about that and the largest protests in modern history because COVID conveniently came along. Taiwan also doesn't have the benefit of being attached to the mainland for the Chinese. It would be far more difficult for them to sneak in Chinese police and agents like what they were doing in Hong Kong. Even then, the island is heavily fortified on the Chinese side and it's not really accessible from the other sides. It's all cliffs, mountains, and dense forest with a single coastal road and only a handful of roads that cut in from that. It's one of the biggest reasons it was chosen for the exiled government to flee to, it's hard to access and easy to defend. Unlike Hong Kong, the Taiwanese are armed and capable of fighting back.
yes, covid was very convinient....free hong kong went as well as free tibet. both are solidly china now
china put out covid and kept the WHO et al at bay and silenced internal doctors/dissenters until they were able to secure HK but they did not do it with their military, they did do it with sympathetic HK politicians. Police assistance, threatening the NBA to force apologies for mentioning HK, massive pressure on things that weren't military and were all "internal china". There is zero reason why this similar strategy won't be used again and again. The USA will only get involved if there is "military" action taken against china, on paper china has the 'authority' to influence things in taiwan, especially over the decades as the view to china softens.
taiwan already has a growing sentiment that the chinese nationalist party was an evil facist regime. to go to the chile comparison again, similar time periods and similar remembrances in history, chile now has a largely socialist democratically elected body re writing their consititution which was democratically demanded and will further destroy itself. Why? culture shift. That is what ccp is brewing in taiwan, especially with how much western influence there is and how pro-communist ALL of that shit is.
Despite Taiwan’s public alliances with right-wing US politicians, the country’s left is alive and well.
www.thenation.com
Taiwan’s existence in the modern world can seem confounding. The nation, which holds presidential elections on Saturday, is a democracy that boasts world-class universal health care and recently became the first country in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage. Its ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has touted direct democracy initiatives, renewable energy, and the abolition of nuclear power. In recent months, it has recruited members of progressive third parties who hope to push the traditionally centrist party to the left.
they can/could and will easily vote themselves into oblivion and, despite how much the older generations may despise the CCP, it won't hold. The progressive push will drive in voters and politicians who will soften to china, and economic collapse in china may even be what is needed for humanitarian aide and help them out and see, they aren't so bad, after all, we are all chinese.....not today, not tomorrow, but time is on the side of the CCP.
HK fought back as well, remember the violent extremist protesters shooting arrows at the police? Taiwan is far more prepared than that, but still woefully behind what they would need which, again, is highly unlikely to be a uniformed military operation.
china is still consolidating mainland, they don't have time to mess with pushing out yet. however, they are reaching to their edges and have been putting effort into the desolate west (uighars) and north (inner mongolia) and even sparring with india over the border. if and once they can make those stick is when they can focus on increasing pressure and politicians in taiwan.
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