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Real estate crisis coming?

I think 5% is optimistic. 3.9% is probable more realistic before shit contracts.

Re: crisis…. There should be a commercial real estate crisis happening right now. But it’s being hidden…. And hidden well.

Residential will follow commercial. Won’t happen until after mid terms.

From or until them, it will just slow based on seasons.
I don't understand commercial real estate. Everywhere I go I see emtpy existing buildings; stores and office buildings. But at the same time they're putting up new buildings in the same areas like mad.

I just drove to Nashville then to FL, it's the same story in basically every town we drove through.
 
I hope it doesn't crash. I want to be able to get the current appreciation out of my house.

I do think about doing a cash out refinance, and since I am VA I think they allow 100%. Then if it crashes just walk. They should be throwing money around at that point, might as well join the party on the sinking ship.

But then my morals get in the way and I realize that I wasn't raised to be a freeloader


My wife does book keeping (and her company also does taxes), she's been telling me lately what a large amount of her clients have been doing with money. She's talking 50k/year net companies taking 250k covid loans and just paying themselves. Many of the larger companies took massive loans (500k) and the story stays much the same, all of sudden their other companies or holdings start getting massive "rent" payments. People all of sudden buying real estate and cars right after cashing their covid checks.

Going to be interesting when things go sideways.
 
it isn't that (x) is getting more expensive
it is that $ is getting worth less
Mostly.
However rural areas around here spiked very hard when the bitter lying marxist movement got serious. Not free money loans but insane cash offers. And while the cash offers are no longer knocking on your door. You are a fool if you dont sell at or above top possibly market value without any contingencies.
Oh, you have an FDA, FHA, USDA loan? No thank you have a nice day. You want a home inspection, septic inspection, etc? Have a nice day. Someone behind you is offering cash at or above asking by price. Its the rich and wealthy fleeing the cities.
 
Every time I try to explain how increasing interest rates wouldn’t change the housing market someone said ‘I have 20% for a $200,000 home.’ They failed to realize the monthly payment being the same as buying today with the same down payment.
So on an $800k mortgage at 3.5% you're paying 3600/month. At 5.5% you're at 4500... Explain yourself! :flipoff2:
 
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You're in CA... of course you're "noticing". 9 trillion people moved out of your state in the last 2 years.
This. Ca sucks and no one wants to live there. I was born and raised there and lived there for 32 years. If I never go back, it will be too soon. We bought our house in Missouri 2 years ago. 5 acres, 3200 SQ feet 4 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 car garage for $260k. Current value is around $340k.
 
:lmao::lmao::lmao:

right.

the ONLY reason anybody EVER left Cali is $$$. It doesnt suck, its just expensive.
Nope. The political climate and raising my kids in California are 1000% the entire reason we moved out. It had nothing to do with money. If California wasn't such a political wasteland, we would probably still live there.. no gun rights, homeless tent cities everywhere, etc.. California is a shit hole, and it's only getting worse.
 
Nope. The political climate and raising my kids in California are 1000% the entire reason we moved out. It had nothing to do with money. If California wasn't such a political wasteland, we would probably still live there.. no gun rights, homeless tent cities everywhere, etc.. California is a shit hole, and it's only getting worse.

translation: we couldnt afford to live in the good areas

yes CA has lot of shitty laws, but nobody moved to a different state just because they want a 1000hp mustang with no smog or a machine gun. people ultimately move because they cant afford the life they want. There ARE nice areas, GOOD neighborhoods here. But it costs an arm and a leg, and always will, because everyone wants to be here.

Either try (or burn yourself out) trying to build that life, or move. Many people just burn themselves out. But if you can figure out a way to make a 20-25k a month profit, it will give you the opportunity to buy a house or two, live in a nice area, send your kids to good schools, etc.

p.s. guys drive a truck, work studios, or work linemen/groundmen for 20k/month, so opportunity is there
 
The Chinese economy is an empty shell. They're in a very similar situation as the Japanese were in at the start of the 1990's.
Here's a good explanation of what's going on in China now. As I said, very similar to Japan at the start of 1990's and here in 2007-2008.

 
translation: we couldnt afford to live in the good areas

yes CA has lot of shitty laws, but nobody moved to a different state just because they want a 1000hp mustang with no smog or a machine gun. people ultimately move because they cant afford the life they want. There ARE nice areas, GOOD neighborhoods here. But it costs an arm and a leg, and always will, because everyone wants to be here.

Either try (or burn yourself out) trying to build that life, or move. Many people just burn themselves out. But if you can figure out a way to make a 20-25k a month profit, it will give you the opportunity to buy a house or two, live in a nice area, send your kids to good schools, etc.

p.s. guys drive a truck, work studios, or work linemen/groundmen for 20k/month, so opportunity is there
You're absolutely wrong. We could have afforded to continue living in California, but the state has SO MANY asinine laws that restrict or downright fuck you out of your rights it was hateful to remain. The "life we wanted" was to have the government BUTT THE FUCK OUT of our lives where they don't belong.
 
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translation: we couldnt afford to live in the good areas

yes CA has lot of shitty laws, but nobody moved to a different state just because they want a 1000hp mustang with no smog or a machine gun. people ultimately move because they cant afford the life they want. There ARE nice areas, GOOD neighborhoods here. But it costs an arm and a leg, and always will, because everyone wants to be here.

Either try (or burn yourself out) trying to build that life, or move. Many people just burn themselves out. But if you can figure out a way to make a 20-25k a month profit, it will give you the opportunity to buy a house or two, live in a nice area, send your kids to good schools, etc.

p.s. guys drive a truck, work studios, or work linemen/groundmen for 20k/month, so opportunity is there
It's obvious you have no idea where I lived. I loved the area I lived in, but the state as a whole is a joke. :lmao:. I'm not gonna argue with you, if you love California, good for you. In my opinion it's a political dumpster fire that isn't somewhere to raise a family.
 
translation: we couldnt afford to live in the good areas

yes CA has lot of shitty laws, but nobody moved to a different state just because they want a 1000hp mustang with no smog or a machine gun. people ultimately move because they cant afford the life they want. There ARE nice areas, GOOD neighborhoods here. But it costs an arm and a leg, and always will, because everyone wants to be here.

Either try (or burn yourself out) trying to build that life, or move. Many people just burn themselves out. But if you can figure out a way to make a 20-25k a month profit, it will give you the opportunity to buy a house or two, live in a nice area, send your kids to good schools, etc.

p.s. guys drive a truck, work studios, or work linemen/groundmen for 20k/month, so opportunity is there
My MIL is born and raised in Cali. Loves the state but hates the government. She is trying everything she can to move up to Washington, as fucked as our rules are it is the land of the free compared to California. People are leaving in droves. Good on those that want to stay and fight for their state and restore it back to its former self. Just dont be in denial about people leaving the state solely to escape the tyranny
 
People here were buying homes for over appraised value, guessing they had to make up the difference to get the loan.

Recently homes aren't selling as fast and prices are being reduced weekly or monthly. I don't feel it's crashing but feel the cash cows drying up or the over priced homes are getting checked.
 
People here were buying homes for over appraised value, guessing they had to make up the difference to get the loan.

Recently homes aren't selling as fast and prices are being reduced weekly or monthly. I don't feel it's crashing but feel the cash cows drying up or the over priced homes are getting checked.


Some of this is a seasonal trend, home sales March-August are 2x the winter pace here.Anything that will finance is still selling quickly here even though Nov-Feb are our slowest months.
 
It’s still shit hot in MT. Neighbor just put up their shitbox for $720k and has lots looking.
No kidding. Wife is a broker and did a cursory on our place slightly S of Arlee...625k for a place we bought for 280k in 2010. We refinanced at 2.75 30 yr fixed a couple yrs ago...
Get letters and cold calls from MSLA realtors at least weekly.

Dunno about Kalispell area but the panic issue is more with rentals in MSLA. Hard to justify a $15/hr job when rent is over 1500 for 2 bdr duplex.
 
Some of this is a seasonal trend, home sales March-August are 2x the winter pace here.Anything that will finance is still selling quickly here even though Nov-Feb are our slowest months.
They're still selling above appraised and moving steady in desirable neighborhoods and areas.

Is this the new normal? Will this flop and cause everyone to be upside down?
See alot of new cars, Houses, ect. Feel like I'm missing something by being conservative.
 
So on an $800k mortgage at 3.5% you're paying 3600/month. At 5.5% you're at 4500... Explain yourself! :flipoff2:
Down payment make a difference? How about the house you’re buying for $800k at 5.5%?
 
They're still selling above appraised and moving steady in desirable neighborhoods and areas.

Is this the new normal? Will this flop and cause everyone to be upside down?
See alot of new cars, Houses, ect. Feel like I'm missing something by being conservative.
The ‘flop’ will only hurt those who pulled equity pout to buy those things. Some people can afford a $2,500 mortgage and a truck payment. Yes the new norm is people being able to afford things previously seen as ‘lavish’ and ‘overextended’.
 
If democrats want to be fair with taxes, they would shitcan the current monster of a tax system and implement a flat sales tax. Rich people spend more money, therefore they would pay more taxes. I would gladly pay a 25% sales tax rather than have the government siphon me for 55% of my income every year (state/fed income, property, car registration, sales, cell phone fees, etc, etc).
Dumbass. Sales tax will fuck everyone on this board mich harder than it will fuck the ivory tower liberal doctors and lawyers who live 10min from work and spend all their money on paying other people to do shit for them.

I always think it’s odd they want to go after capital gains as if they want to “punish the rich”. The reality of it is capital gains like 401k or real estate are how you climb the ladder of society to a better life as you age, doubling the rate is like removing rungs from said ladder.

Also I lol at the fact that the money you pay into social security ends up being an average of 5% loss over your life, what a great investment to count on!
That's the point. They don't want to punish the rich. They want to make the middle class dependent on the .gov.
 
if they pass taxes on the top 700 earners in the US, things are going to get wild. They will have to pull money from investments to pay said taxes and we're talking about stock market changing amounts of money. This will cause a contraction in every middle class portfolio. People will have everything up for sale to try to stay afloat. Fun times ahead for sure.
That is just the scenario I am afraid of! What the fuck is a mother to do? Most of my stuff is in an IRA; Roth is out of the question as it wouldn't even touch 1% of what I have. I am hanging low for now; most of my junk is in equities and ETFs; drawing some hefty dividends for some fun stuff. I will soon be getting TAXED up the ass when I hit 70 in a couple of years. Fucking RMD's!:mad3:

Word of advice for you youngsters. Put off buying new toys now and invest that money for your future. I drive a couple of 17 y/o beater Jeeps for now. I can now afforde just about anything I can dream of. :smokin::smokin:
 
Id go one step further and say they want to eliminate the middle class much like all the other communist shit holes
They don't care how well off people are or aren't other than as a means to control them. It's all about power and control.
 
Put off buying new toys now and invest that money for your future.
Any money I stick in a 401k or IRA is subject to government, now or later. Every white collar professional has retirement funds in accounts like those. Those are HUGE amounts of money that are sloshing around the economy. Don't think the .gov won't come looking for it. They're already starting to normalize it with all the taxes on the "rich" where "rich" just means successful middle class people. They can take that money with the stroke of a pen.

Meanwhile they actually have to send a person to repo your shit. And people are easy enough to shoot.

I'm maxing out my 401k but I feel like an idiot for do it because I know when it comes down to it the .gov will probably take that money.
 
You're absolutely wrong. We could have afforded to continue living in California, but the state has SO MANY asinine laws that restrict or downright fuck you out of your rights it was hateful to remain. The "life we wanted" was to have the government BUTT THE FUCK OUT of our lives where they don't belong.

How did the govenment exactly interfere with your life? Real question. Are you into guns rifles etc? Small business owner? I mean what life changing area was the government interefering with that made you sell everything and move away from where you spent most of your life (assuming)? Really curious.


I'm maxing out my 401k but I feel like an idiot for do it because I know when it comes down to it the .gov will probably take that money.

yeah i think youre a fool. Ill never put a penny into a 401k or any stupid shit like that. Rather put money into houses aaprtments I can rent out in the future for income.
 
I don't understand commercial real estate. Everywhere I go I see emtpy existing buildings; stores and office buildings. But at the same time they're putting up new buildings in the same areas like mad.

I just drove to Nashville then to FL, it's the same story in basically every town we drove through.
Same here

There will be an existing strip mall that’s half occupied and directly across the road they are building another one
 
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