What's new
By:
Filters

Real estate crisis coming?

roundhouse said:
When I bought my house in 2001 the interest rate was 9%

If they jack it to that rate again, it woould slow down the sales .
Click to expand...
probably stop all of them
only reason that the shit's gone nuts is that interest rates are way lower than inflation rates
so getting in debt is effectively paying you a dividend rather than charging interest

thus, all the smart people are getting all the loans they possibly can

we talked about it on the old board, guys are mortgaging their paid for houses so they can invest the money in other things, because even the most boring, conservative and stable investment is beating the 2 fucking percent APR that they're charging now
 
rockota said:
I think 5% is optimistic. 3.9% is probable more realistic before shit contracts.

Re: crisis…. There should be a commercial real estate crisis happening right now. But it’s being hidden…. And hidden well.

Residential will follow commercial. Won’t happen until after mid terms.

From or until them, it will just slow based on seasons.
Click to expand...

My dad just sold a commercial property he's had for the last 25 years; 17 retail/business tenants, about 23k sq ft. He got more than he ever imagined for it and it sold within a month or two.

He's known some of the tenants for that entire time and over the last year and a half has been very forgiving with helping people just keep their spaces and paying what they can. Part of the sale is obviously disclosing lease agreements and apparently the new owner has no intention of any forgiveness at this point (can't really blame them).

It was nearly fully-leased at the time of the sale, will be interesting to see how many tenants bail or sell in the next few months. Meanwhile there's even more commercial stuff going in around the area.

Realty Income (O) stock has been killing it this past year, hit its highest trading point ever within the last few weeks, and another dividend increase. They specialize in owning free-standing, single tenant commercial properties...restaurants, etc.

Mack-Cali is another commercial real estate one that specializes in mostly apartments, offices, and hotels...they've been in the shitter and barely above where they were 10+ years ago.

Gonna be a shift in the development landscape for sure.
 
Best I can offer is Christian Valley above Auburn.

Dirtyjed has a cool pad in Orangevale, but you proabaly need to be closer than both my options, or pay the Pine Cone Tax and take a pay cut. A really big one.

Your industry?

Old school 80s homes, but with some room , and not a lot of rules for a slightly HOA area.

Jes said:
No shit. I make over 100k a year and can't afford to buy within commute distance. If I only had $700,000 in my bank account. :shaking:
Click to expand...
 
Commercial real estate and real estate in shithole lib cities is going to take it on the ass with zero time for lube. Suburbs, exurbs, and country will see the recent gains maintain or slightly decrease. So long as interest rates stay under 5%. That's my bullshit opinion based on watching houses sell in three different markets, east king county Washington, east bench/park city Utah, and Houston TX. :homer:
 
Roc Doc said:
Again with the made-up statistics. Quit lying.
Click to expand...



obviously that 25% is my best guestimate you stupid fucking **** :laughing: you have zero clue what the traffic is like in my area therefore you calling me a liar makes you a liar :homer: i see an out of state license plate every single time i leave my house this time of year, i leave my house maybe 2ish times a week.
 
rockyota83 said:
obviously that 25% is my best guestimate you stupid fucking **** :laughing: you have zero clue what the traffic is like in my area therefore you calling me a liar makes you a liar :homer: i see an out of state license plate every single time i leave my house this time of year, i leave my house maybe 2ish times a week.
Click to expand...

All Roc Doc is saying is, maybe you should get out more :lmao::lmao::lmao::flipoff2:
 
Santa said:
Chinese about to lose their asses after they bought up a bunch of real estate they couldn't afford?
Click to expand...
I'm not smart enough to even pretend to understand world politics or finances, but this chart is kind of scary, like we're gonna all be talking chinese pretty soon scary.

First chart is world's largest banks by asset value :eek:
Second chart is by market cap. Again, not smart enough to know which is more important.

china banks.png
china banks2.png
 
montrose818 said:
Noticed the last month but mainly the laat few weeks there are a LOT of listings (los angeles)

Lot priced under the Zestimate, with what looks to be decent pricing considering the increases lately

Anyone notice?
Click to expand...
FL is not slowing down at all.. it needs to soon. It's getting way to crowded
 
rockyota83 said:
obviously that 25% is my best guestimate you stupid fucking **** :laughing: you have zero clue what the traffic is like in my area therefore you calling me a liar makes you a liar :homer: i see an out of state license plate every single time i leave my house this time of year, i leave my house maybe 2ish times a week.
Click to expand...
Blaming non-Califonians is quite a thing with you...and lying.

Shhhhh, the men are talking here.
 
I’m patiently waiting to buy. Seeing price drops and new inventory daily.
 
Muckin_Slusher said:
I'm not smart enough to even pretend to understand world politics or finances, but this chart is kind of scary, like we're gonna all be talking chinese pretty soon scary.

First chart is world's largest banks by asset value :eek:
Second chart is by market cap. Again, not smart enough to know which is more important.

china banks.png
china banks2.png
Click to expand...



There are what, 4 times as many chinese as US citizens?
 
gunracer1 said:
I have 10 acres I need to sell. I really would love to catch the top and buy a few hundred acres out west when it flops.


who am I kidding I never get that lucky.
Click to expand...
Same. I want to sell my cabin in PA and buy something out west.
 
Yeah, I'd sell, for 3X what I paid for it... but there isn't any place to go. My youngest daughter needs to finish out her 1.5 years of high school.

I have unsolicited offers. People literally walking my drive way to talk to me about selling.
 
Grendel said:
Yeah, I'd sell, for 3X what I paid for it... but there isn't any place to go. My youngest daughter needs to finish out her 1.5 years of high school.

I have unsolicited offers. People literally walking my drive way to talk to me about selling.
Click to expand...
And those I solicit offers are usually for slightly over what you paid for it 10 years ago.

Why does everyone think they can buy a hoise for 1/3 it’s value because the owner doesn’t realize the value had spiked ?
I guess it works occasionally,

Kinda like walking up to every women you see and asking if she wants to sleep with you .
 
montrose818 said:
I think all the free money got spent. No more SBA disaster loans, no more unemployment. The amount of stuff I see for sale - there arent going to be enough buyers. Everyone who wanted a house bought one with the covid money already.
Click to expand...
It’s not the “free money.” There are tons of people who have had several hundred grand in various accounts and investments that they should be moving to safer areas (tangible goods).
 
  • Like
Reactions: DMG
roundhouse said:
And those I solicit offers are usually for slightly over what you paid for it 10 years ago.

Why does everyone think they can buy a hoise for 1/3 it’s value because the owner doesn’t realize the value had spiked ?
I guess it works occasionally,

Kinda like walking up to every women you see and asking if she wants to sleep with you .
Click to expand...
Um, nope. They're 50K above current market.
 
My neighbor just listed his place for $1.4M. if he gets that, my shit is hitting the market the very next day for $800k. My house is significantly bigger and a lot nicer, but he has 70 acres to my 11. The issue with his 70 is that a good chunk of it is in a conservation easement so you're very limited what you can actually do with it.
 
My mom passed away a few months ago, and I've been working with an Estate Company to help liquidate my moms stuff.

The Estate Liquidator said that the majority of their back logged current business in estate sales is for people moving out of California, and not so much old folks dying off......
 
Grendel said:
Yeah, I'd sell, for 3X what I paid for it... but there isn't any place to go. My youngest daughter needs to finish out her 1.5 years of high school.

I have unsolicited offers. People literally walking my drive way to talk to me about selling.
Click to expand...
This is common around here. Our family has a house on a private lake. Parents got an offer double of the appraisal, they were thinking about taking it but aren't any lots left on the lake and to buy anything else you are also going to pay through the nose.

Its weird though I have a friend that has bought a new home every 6 months for the last 2 years. They get done building it he lists it. It sells for more than he bought it for and rolls it into another new build doing the same thing. He says he's averaging 20% on the house price and doubling his initial 'investment'. We certainly live in extraordinary times.
 
Pocahontas said:
We certainly live in extraordinary times.
Click to expand...
Extraordinarily dangerous times economic times for society as a whole IMO. If you have money to invest right now, you can make a killing. If you aren't already sitting on a pile though, you're pretty well fucked. I feel bad for young people who are first time buyers right now. You're just fucked. No chance.
 
montrose818 said:
Noticed the last month but mainly the laat few weeks there are a LOT of listings (los angeles)

Lot priced under the Zestimate, with what looks to be decent pricing considering the increases lately

Anyone notice?
Click to expand...

I've noticed a lot of new listings in San Diego and they're sitting on the market. My wife and I are looking in the <$2m range and it seems the average time for homes to sell is growing by weeks at this point.

BTW - Zestimates are literal trash. They're nothing more than a wild ass guess and are NOT comps. You'll need a realtor to run a comparative market analysis (CMA) to see the true value.

Juztyn00 said:
if they pass taxes on the top 700 earners in the US, things are going to get wild. They will have to pull money from investments to pay said taxes and we're talking about stock market changing amounts of money. This will cause a contraction in every middle class portfolio. People will have everything up for sale to try to stay afloat. Fun times ahead for sure.
Click to expand...

False.
Democrats will pass their feel good legislation to 'punish' the richest people in the US. This is all a show for poor people because the rich are smart and have too much power. They will never pay taxes, not now, not in our socialist future, never. When you see an article saying that Jeff Bezos made $20 billion this year, that's not income. His bank account doesn't have $20 billion in it. The value of his assets went up, which cannot be taxed until he sells them, which he probably never will. People with real money don't hold cash, their money is invested in tax-shielded assets. I have a few friends worth over $50m and the majority keep $50-$100k in their bank accounts at any given time.

If democrats want to be fair with taxes, they would shitcan the current monster of a tax system and implement a flat sales tax. Rich people spend more money, therefore they would pay more taxes. I would gladly pay a 25% sales tax rather than have the government siphon me for 55% of my income every year (state/fed income, property, car registration, sales, cell phone fees, etc, etc).
 
Grendel said:
Yeah, I'd sell, for 3X what I paid for it... but there isn't any place to go. My youngest daughter needs to finish out her 1.5 years of high school.

I have unsolicited offers. People literally walking my drive way to talk to me about selling.
Click to expand...
3X? In the west I can sell my 10 acres for 10X what we paid 5 years ago. The west is just as stupid overpriced as the rest of the country
 
Thunderer said:
I've noticed a lot of new listings in San Diego and they're sitting on the market. My wife and I are looking in the <$2m range and it seems the average time for homes to sell is growing by weeks at this point.

BTW - Zestimates are literal trash. They're nothing more than a wild ass guess and are NOT comps. You'll need a realtor to run a comparative market analysis (CMA) to see the true value.
Click to expand...
Looks like we bailed out of the San Diego area (Ramona) just in time last May. :flipoff2: Ours sold inside 3 days for substantially above list.

I agree that Zestimates are trash.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Back Refresh