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Housing market theories

Poke

Poke

I’m condescending
Joined
May 20, 2020
Member Number
763
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1,393
inflation alone?
people moving?
selling taking advantage?
.gov other stuff?


This morning I started wondering if it was the millennials. Millions lived at home with their parents into their early 30's. No bills, minimal responsibility except open a laptop to work from home, just one credit card and no toys because its their parents house, and a big fat bank account for a down payment.

What if these millennials are largely at the end of the road on Mom & Dad so they are buying up houses, taking most the inventory off the market and driving the prices up. On the same note, they can afford more for housing because they had 12-15 years of living with no bills.

What ya got?
 
Millennial are doing the buying, but only because they are the old fucks now.

So...duh :flipoff2:

Then there's all the goober who are retiring, selling at inflated prices and paying who gives a fuck dieing soon prices because might as well.
 
Millennials/genx parents are passing away, millennials are selling the houses their parents lived in for 30 years and that equity is entering the market

Smart millennials bought shacks in the city 15 years ago with their first job outta college. They can now WFH and are selling these now $1M shacks and moving to the 'burbs and beyond

Thats all I got on how massive $ is entering the market on a homeowner level. Plenty of commercial and offshore $ entering as well
 
Sounds like another Boomer blaming Millennials :flipoff2:

Read up on Blackrock buying up properties over listing and renting them out in an effort to control the housing markets in certain areas.

Also printing funny money, giving certain corperations (blackrock?) no interest loans and raising interest rates on private homebuyers has nothing to do with it.
 
All of it. Yes, inflation has a big role. Supply chain crunches played a big role. Lots of relocation due to remote work thriving during COVID played a big role. Historically low interest rates for a decade plus played a huge role.
 
Probably some of that but flippers and corporations are trying to cash in on the housing market right now.

House flipping is most active since 2006


"When looking at only single-family home sales, companies accounted for 16.1% of all purchases in the second quarter, Redfin said. Ten years ago, it was 8.4%."
 
Some of what contributes to millennial dumb spending IMO isn't just the social media "doi it for the 'gram" effect but also oats of the back from their parents and others from another generation. Yeah, little Suzie is pulling in $75k at 28 years old. She's kill' it! But wait, this isn't 1990 anymore. Cost of living has skyrocketed. Yeah, back in '90 making that kinda money under 30 would be killing it. As a single wage earner household, that's struggling to survive in a lot of areas. So while mom and dad and the grandparents are super proud and telling little Suzie how she's made it, little Suzie is struggling to keep her head above water with student loans, housing costs, etc.
 
IEATRKS84 said:
Thats a really dumb theory.

Millennials have the shit end of the stick. They have stupid student loan payments, while salaries have been stagnant for well over 15 years. Imagine getting out with a degree and only making $75k after 5 years out of school.
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You got the wrong degree, and/or were complacent if you are still making 75k 5 yr out of school right now.

I know because I am realizing this first hand right now. 10+ yr ME experience job hunting over the last 6 mo yielded 3 offers all under 90k

My brother got his EE degree specializing in controls in January. First job right out of college 110k, he will probably be making double what I do in 5 years unless I step it up and learn controls. Not that I think college is the way to go these days but that's another topic.

Despite what we early millennials were told, a degree doesn't guarantee you success. The game is fucked up... but you still have to play it
 
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IEATRKS84 said:
Millennials have the shit end of the stick. They have stupid student loan payments, while salaries have been stagnant for well over 15 years. Imagine getting out with a degree and only making $75k after 5 years out of school. Now, they do spend too much money on frivolous luxuries, sure, this is all documented. But the problem is they cant come up with a 10% (or even 3%) cash down payment for a $500,000 starter house.
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Bullshit.

Any degree worth a shit would get you in the $70k range the day you graduated. My previous employer was hiring in the 80's and making offers to college sophomores.

IEATRKS84 said:
Thats right, i dont know if youve looked at the housing market lately, but a starter house within an hour of a metropolis is $500,000 minimum. That would require, at minimum $15,000 in cash, along with a healthy DTI ratio, and good credit, and a parental co-signer to even get in the door for a "starter house" (excluding VA and USDA).
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More bullshit.

I just looked Charlotte and Atlanta on zillow. Plenty of houses inside the outer beltway in both cities in the 2 and 300's.


Are you saying I can't buy a 3,500 square foot mcmansion with a pool, game room, home theatre right in the heart of a major city on a new graduate's salary. How unfair!!! :shaking:




You sound like a typical millennial whining twat that blames everyone else for their problems.
 
bgaidan said:
More bullshit.

I just looked Charlotte and Atlanta on zillow. Plenty of houses inside the outer beltway in both cities in the 2 and 300's.


Are you saying I can't buy a 3,500 square foot mcmansion with a pool, game room, home theatre right in the heart of a major city on a new graduate's salary. How unfair!!! :shaking:
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Yeah I was like WTF, half a mil is a "starter house" an hour from a big city? Plenty houses in the $250K range right in Miami.

Granted I'm a confirmed bachelor and don't mind living in a 900 sq. ft. shack.
 
IEATRKS84 said:
Oh you can buy a crack house in the ghetto in charlotte north fucking carolina for $300,000?
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Yes that is his point!

You have to start somewhere. This isnt the 1980s where you get to start at the top the day you graduate. That 300k crack house could be the first step to real estate wealth.

My 400k crack house in the hood is worth nearly 700k now.
 
I dont think it is any one factor... I believe it's a little bit of everything. Anyone blaming millennials is the same person that hoarded tp during 2020 and blamed their hoarding on other people!


I think one of the biggest components is the current population of the us.... It's grown 80 million + in the last 30 years.... Now look at land, it's not getting any bigger...
 
Housing prices are way up and rent is only a little up. Once rate creep up and prices drop, rents will keep creeping up until it levels out again
 
Most of the "We buy houses" groups are china money. In my home county there where 38 houses for sale last month.12 where new construction.
 
Poke said:
inflation alone?
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all types of inflation are present really. so yes.
Poke said:
people moving?
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yes, but i would attribute that more to localities, not that it plays a huge part of the national sales.
Poke said:
selling taking advantage?
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yes. headache fee and capitalism
Poke said:
.gov other stuff?
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covid mandates hurt more cumulatively than all else
Poke said:
This morning I started wondering if it was the millennials. Millions lived at home with their parents into their early 30's. No bills, minimal responsibility except open a laptop to work from home, just one credit card and no toys because its their parents house, and a big fat bank account for a down payment.

What if these millennials are largely at the end of the road on Mom & Dad so they are buying up houses, taking most the inventory off the market and driving the prices up. On the same note, they can afford more for housing because they had 12-15 years of living with no bills.

What ya got?
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the millennial topic is a hard one. ill try to break it down categorically

the largest demographic of homebuyers will be millennials as a whole. when they are ready. Current crop of homebuyers are largely gen x/y( as a whole.). where it gets tricky is that "xinnials" cohort. they don't fit the mix of gen x or millennials, but are grouped as buyers into the matrix of millennials.

in a sense, from top to bottom:
boomers: have the most equity, are moving closer to town/friends, generally downsizing or lateral moves to new and less maintenance
genx/y: is buying the pricier, larger homes, and trend higher towards boomers with equity, but have a higher amount of first time buyers than xinnials
xinnials: an odd duck. mix of gen x assets, and millennial wants
millennials: interesting group to read the dynamics of, generally all first timers, low equities, care about style and charm, amenities, although they are a small current percentage of buyers.

if you are looking for more granular outlook on the buyers market, i can provide a ton more. the MOST interesting thing I've seen, is diversity. you know whos the most diverse group, be it gays buying homes, multi ethnics marriage buyers, multi culture, etc etc......it isn't millennials.

Builders currently are trying to incentivize the younger cohorts into buying. so items like "no snow/no mow", postage size lots because the younger are experiential buyers, unlike older generations, care for charm and style more so than cookie cutter bland design.
 
IEATRKS84 said:
Oh you can buy a crack house in the ghetto in charlotte north fucking carolina for $300,000? Oh wow then everything i posted must be bullshit.

Fuck outa here.
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Under $300k ‘Crackhouses in the ghetto’ you could sign my kids up for.

www.zillow.com

6103 Patric Alan Ct, Charlotte, NC 28216 | Zillow

6103 Patric Alan Ct, Charlotte NC, is a Single Family home that contains 1718 sq ft and was built in 2002.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $325,000 in May 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $348,700, which has decreased by $220 in the last 30 days.The...
www.zillow.com www.zillow.com

www.zillow.com

10920 Whittersham Dr, Charlotte, NC 28262 | Zillow

10920 Whittersham Dr, Charlotte NC, is a Single Family home that contains 1298 sq ft and was built in 1991.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $312,500 in May 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $331,000, which has decreased by $3,527 in the last 30...
www.zillow.com www.zillow.com

www.zillow.com

9203 Scotts Elm Ct, Charlotte, NC 28215 | Zillow

9203 Scotts Elm Ct, Charlotte NC, is a Single Family home that contains 1179 sq ft and was built in 2004.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $280,000 in May 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $300,800, which has decreased by $4,620 in the last 30 days.The...
www.zillow.com www.zillow.com

edit: You’re looking at everything through your tainted lens from northern VA- one of the worst Markets in the country for affordable homes within commuting distance, and has been for 20+ yrs.
 
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LoL I'm a millennial and bought my first home (proper single detached 1400 sq ft) at 23 years old after renting for 2 years when out of school and then at 30 built a new single detached 2500 sq ft backing onto green space that's worth around $1.5 million now (I paid 1/3rd of that lol). I do software shit for a living and have been at the same place for 15 years. No monetary help from parents other than living at home for school, paid my own degree though.

I might as well be a boomer because it's entirely possible for a millennial to get a decent living if they had got off their ass, do some work, don't study some bullshit degree that is a dead end, and don't party like it's 1999 all the time. The home prices is a simple supply/demand problem, everyone thinks they deserve the big life even if they work a minimum wage job flipping burgers. It's a set of unrealistic expectations driving the housing market now IMO...renting a little 1 bedroom is the norm out of school.
 
Around here it's almost entirely outside money. In the city it's mostly late 30s/early 40s couples. Mostly from any of the big tech or financial companies that have moved offices here and driven real estate through the fucking roof. In the counties it's mostly boomer couples from the Northeast fleeing taxes. Lots of people selling houses they bought 30 years ago in NY, MA, NJ, etc, moving here and paying cash.

Lots of outside investment firms snatching up anything remotely affordable here as well to capitalize on it. Next to impossible to buy anything remotely affordable here even if it's a falling apart crack house in the ghetto. Real estate is so in demand here they're building luxury condos literally across from one of the worst public housing projects on the east coast near me.

Easy to sit back and arm chair quarterback blame people for not buying a house. Reality is every market varies so much it's impossible to pinpoint single reasons. Around here I've watched housing prices double or more every five years since I graduated high school. Housing market went from looking like maybe I could afford something in 5-10 years in 2007 if I save every penny to oh I might be homeless in a year because the odds of the place I'm renting being sold are so high. Almost every one I know has had to move out of this city in the past 4 years or so because landlords are driving rent through the roof to get people to move out so they can sell.

I'll be 35 this year and I can count on one hand the number of people close to my age that I know own a house vs renting and the few who do own bought 10+ years ago with help from family.
 
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CarterKraft said:
Don't forget zillow falsely inflating market values.

god.dailydot.com

Real Estate Agent Exposes How Zillow Buys Up Houses To Inflate Prices In Wild Viral Video

Everyone should be absolutely furious about this.
god.dailydot.com god.dailydot.com
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From what I understand that's blown up in their face big time and they've been unable to sell the vast majority of their houses because they inflated the value so much. Though I think I read that a year or so ago before the housing market had gotten quite as nuts as it has now.
 
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